Week 9 · 2026
Colorado State at Utah State
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Colorado State
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-16 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Ksaan Farrar QB 2 games | 36.9% 24 / 65 plays | 50.0% 3 / 6 plays |
| Durell Robinson RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 58.7% 27 / 46 plays |
| Hauss Hejny QB 1 games | 58.1% 18 / 31 plays | 72.7% 8 / 11 plays |
| Jayden Brown RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 57.1% 8 / 14 plays |
| Cedric Ross RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 16.7% 1 / 6 plays |
| Malichi Greaves RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 2 / 2 plays |
| Ryan McConnell TE 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
| Terrence Smith Jr. WR 1 games | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays | — 0 / 0 plays |
Traditional season production · 63 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Alton Tarber · DL
CFBD athlete 4685589
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Antarron Turner · LB
CFBD athlete 5089561
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 31
Atticus Tillman · S
CFBD athlete 5282608
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 8
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 8
- rushing · YPC
- 8.0
Brandon Kelly · DL
CFBD athlete 5077224
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 5
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 18
C.J. Blocker · CB
CFBD athlete 5078214
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 25
- interceptions · AVG
- 8.7
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 26
Caleb Otlewski · LB
CFBD athlete 5078280
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Caleb Presley · CB
CFBD athlete 4870905
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Cavan Craig · P
CFBD athlete 5225622
- punting · In 20
- 1
- punting · LONG
- 42
- punting · NO
- 3
- punting · TB
- 0
- punting · YDS
- 111
- punting · YPP
- 37.0
Cedric Ross · RB
CFBD athlete 5290862
- kickReturns · AVG
- 20.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 20
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 20
- receiving · LONG
- 68
- receiving · REC
- 11
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 194
- receiving · YPR
- 17.6
- rushing · CAR
- 9
- rushing · LONG
- 7
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 33
- rushing · YPC
- 3.7
Cleto Chol · DL
CFBD athlete 5077340
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
D'Angelo Hagans Jr. · CB
CFBD athlete 5250657
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 26
- interceptions · AVG
- 15.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 15
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 6
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
D'Mon Brinson · S
CFBD athlete 4837204
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 20
- interceptions · AVG
- 49.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 49
- kickReturns · AVG
- 25.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 25
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 25
Darius Curry · QB
CFBD athlete 5122401
- passing · ATT
- 8
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 6
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.750
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 70
- passing · YPA
- 8.8
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 6
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 1.3
Desman Manuel · DL
CFBD athlete 5302887
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Dominic Toy · TE
CFBD athlete 5146769
- receiving · LONG
- 38
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 57
- receiving · YPR
- 19.0
Durell Robinson · RB
CFBD athlete 4894661
- receiving · LONG
- 28
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 70
- receiving · YPR
- 7.8
- rushing · CAR
- 88
- rushing · LONG
- 30
- rushing · TD
- 8
- rushing · YDS
- 383
- rushing · YPC
- 4.4
Dylan Phelps · S
CFBD athlete 5122042
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Elijah Brown · CB
CFBD athlete 5295193
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 26
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 7
- receiving · YPR
- 7.0
Elijah Mc-Cantos · S
CFBD athlete 4809893
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Gabe Jones · DL
CFBD athlete 5122160
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Hauss Hejny · QB
CFBD athlete 5079443
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 104
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 71
- passing · INT
- 2
- passing · PCT
- 0.683
- passing · TD
- 13
- passing · YDS
- 952
- passing · YPA
- 9.2
- receiving · LONG
- 28
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 28
- receiving · YPR
- 28.0
- rushing · CAR
- 24
- rushing · LONG
- 75
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 213
- rushing · YPC
- 8.9
Isaiah Watson · WR
CFBD athlete 5327618
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
Jace Bellah · S
CFBD athlete 5082256
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Jack Moran · DL
CFBD athlete 5143024
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Jackson Harper · WR
CFBD athlete 5077803
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- puntReturns · AVG
- 12.9
- puntReturns · LONG
- 30
- puntReturns · NO
- 7
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 90
- receiving · LONG
- 49
- receiving · REC
- 25
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 327
- receiving · YPR
- 13.1
Jaden Hernandez · LB
CFBD athlete 5264723
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jaivyn Moore · WR
CFBD athlete 5446698
- receiving · LONG
- 26
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 57
- receiving · YPR
- 11.4
Jaseim Mitchell · LB
CFBD athlete 5082258
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 28
Javonte Vereen · TE
CFBD athlete 4899418
- receiving · LONG
- 32
- receiving · REC
- 16
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 111
- receiving · YPR
- 6.9
Jayden Brown · RB
CFBD athlete 5095078
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 46.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 94
- kickReturns · NO
- 5
- kickReturns · TD
- 1
- kickReturns · YDS
- 230
- receiving · LONG
- 20
- receiving · REC
- 16
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 88
- receiving · YPR
- 5.5
- rushing · CAR
- 52
- rushing · LONG
- 80
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 454
- rushing · YPC
- 8.7
Jayden Fox · RB
CFBD athlete 5289653
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 5
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
Jaylen King · LB
CFBD athlete 5327239
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 10
- interceptions · AVG
- 5.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 5
Jordan Lessard · CB
CFBD athlete 5446696
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Kali Nguma · PK
CFBD athlete 5150789
- kicking · FGA
- 5
- kicking · FGM
- 4
- kicking · LONG
- 51
- kicking · PCT
- 0.800
- kicking · PTS
- 44
- kicking · XPA
- 32
- kicking · XPM
- 32
Keegan Shank · DL
CFBD athlete 5148996
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Kenyon Agurs · LB
CFBD athlete 5122052
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 21
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Khamani Potts · LB
CFBD athlete 5446697
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Ksaan Farrar · QB
CFBD athlete 5212610
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 143
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 89
- passing · INT
- 2
- passing · PCT
- 0.622
- passing · TD
- 5
- passing · YDS
- 943
- passing · YPA
- 6.6
- rushing · CAR
- 14
- rushing · LONG
- 11
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 43
- rushing · YPC
- 3.1
Lavon Brown · WR
CFBD athlete 4920896
- receiving · LONG
- 19
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 36
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Malichi Greaves · RB
CFBD athlete 5296864
- receiving · LONG
- 5
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 5
- receiving · YPR
- 5.0
- rushing · CAR
- 5
- rushing · LONG
- 9
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 27
- rushing · YPC
- 5.4
Marc Pretto · LB
CFBD athlete 5086188
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji · DL
CFBD athlete 4709974
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Nader Chirchi · TE
CFBD athlete 5121898
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 21
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 46
- receiving · YPR
- 9.2
Nathan Sutcliffe · P
CFBD athlete 5258482
- punting · In 20
- 5
- punting · LONG
- 53
- punting · NO
- 22
- punting · TB
- 1
- punting · YDS
- 942
- punting · YPP
- 42.8
Nykobi Brown · LB
CFBD athlete 5222533
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Oliver Lundberg-Coleman · RB
CFBD athlete 5193222
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- receiving · LONG
- 1
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 0
- receiving · YPR
- 0.0
- rushing · CAR
- 16
- rushing · LONG
- 14
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 57
- rushing · YPC
- 3.6
Oumar Diomande · LB
CFBD athlete 5121899
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 22
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 67
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 2.5
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 5
Pearce Spurlin III · TE
CFBD athlete 4871061
- receiving · LONG
- 29
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 29
- receiving · YPR
- 29.0
Peyton Garrett · DL
CFBD athlete 5230017
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Reginald Vick Jr · WR
CFBD athlete 5232343
- receiving · LONG
- 57
- receiving · REC
- 24
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 367
- receiving · YPR
- 15.3
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 18
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 18
- rushing · YPC
- 18.0
Robby Harrison · DL
CFBD athlete 4894437
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 24
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Ryan McConnell · TE
CFBD athlete 5151385
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 6
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 6
- rushing · YPC
- 6.0
Stephon Wright · DL
CFBD athlete 4430782
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 8
TaVeon Robinson · DL
CFBD athlete 5446709
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Terrence Smith Jr. · WR
CFBD athlete 5193168
- passing · ATT
- 2
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 1
- passing · PCT
- 0.500
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 28
- passing · YPA
- 14.0
- receiving · LONG
- 74
- receiving · REC
- 23
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 304
- receiving · YPR
- 13.2
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 3
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 3
- rushing · YPC
- 3.0
Thomas Cook Jr. · CB
CFBD athlete 5302883
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Tommy Maher · WR
CFBD athlete 5219136
- receiving · LONG
- 57
- receiving · REC
- 19
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 257
- receiving · YPR
- 13.5
TreShawn Moore · S
CFBD athlete 5224718
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 18
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 53
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 38.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 38
Trey Vincent · S
CFBD athlete 5151384
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Ty Staples · CB
CFBD athlete 5446701
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Tyrone Fitten · DL
CFBD athlete 5291021
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Walker Himebauch · LS
CFBD athlete 5092244
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Xavier Wimbush · CB
CFBD athlete 5327240
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Utah State
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Grady Brosterhous QB 3 games | 34.8% 31 / 89 plays | 34.6% 9 / 26 plays |
| Javen Jacobs RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 35.9% 14 / 39 plays |
| McCae Hillstead QB 1 games | 25.0% 2 / 8 plays | 20.0% 1 / 5 plays |
| Noah White RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 14.3% 1 / 7 plays |
| Nehemiah Washington RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 1 / 4 plays |
| Anthony Garcia WR 1 games | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Demick Starling WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
| Javon Robinson WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 48 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Adonis Jackson · LB
CFBD athlete 5304040
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Anthony Garcia · WR
CFBD athlete 5151339
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 6
- passing · YPA
- 6.0
- receiving · LONG
- 18
- receiving · REC
- 15
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 133
- receiving · YPR
- 8.9
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 6
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 8
- rushing · YPC
- 2.7
Asher Cunningham · LB
CFBD athlete 5155792
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 24
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7
- defensive · TOT
- 58
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
BJ Diakite · LB
CFBD athlete 5089062
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Bobby Arnold III · CB
CFBD athlete 5228787
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Brevin Hamblin · S
CFBD athlete 5152415
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 29
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 57
- interceptions · AVG
- 33.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 33
Bronson Olevao · LB
CFBD athlete 5082615
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 32
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 2
Brycen Edwards · LB
CFBD athlete 5083872
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Carson Tujague · DT
CFBD athlete 5219649
- defensive · PD
- 5
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 26
Chapman Lewis · S
CFBD athlete 4916985
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 32
Charger Doty · S
CFBD athlete 5216790
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Chika Ebunoha · S
CFBD athlete 5092197
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Chris Joe · LB
CFBD athlete 5258361
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Collin Remenowksy · TE
CFBD athlete 5446999
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 14
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 14
- receiving · YPR
- 14.0
D'Angelo Mayes · CB
CFBD athlete 5228807
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 30
- interceptions · AVG
- 30.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 30
David Kabongo · S
CFBD athlete 5219507
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 35
- interceptions · AVG
- 27.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 27
Demick Starling · WR
CFBD athlete 4613165
- receiving · LONG
- 41
- receiving · REC
- 10
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 139
- receiving · YPR
- 13.9
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 5
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
Eli Wood · WR
CFBD athlete 5081209
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 33
- receiving · REC
- 37
- receiving · TD
- 5
- receiving · YDS
- 479
- receiving · YPR
- 12.9
Grady Brosterhous · QB
CFBD athlete 5081197
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 178
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 99
- passing · INT
- 6
- passing · PCT
- 0.556
- passing · TD
- 7
- passing · YDS
- 1120
- passing · YPA
- 6.3
- rushing · CAR
- 99
- rushing · LONG
- 22
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 270
- rushing · YPC
- 2.7
Harrison Taggart · LB
CFBD athlete 4897443
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Hyrum Hatch · LS
CFBD athlete 5228789
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jackson Nelson · OL
CFBD athlete 5219655
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
James Jennette · LB
CFBD athlete 4694500
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Javen Jacobs · RB
CFBD athlete 4816099
- kickReturns · AVG
- 12.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 12
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 12
- puntReturns · AVG
- 6.1
- puntReturns · LONG
- 19
- puntReturns · NO
- 12
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 73
- receiving · LONG
- 11
- receiving · REC
- 14
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 75
- receiving · YPR
- 5.4
- rushing · CAR
- 84
- rushing · LONG
- 64
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 435
- rushing · YPC
- 5.2
Javon Robinson · WR
CFBD athlete 5158829
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 78
- receiving · REC
- 17
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 257
- receiving · YPR
- 15.1
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 8
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 11
- rushing · YPC
- 5.5
John Mcclellan · LB
CFBD athlete 5290712
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
John Shepard · CB
CFBD athlete 5297074
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Jordan Pendleton · LB
CFBD athlete 5088999
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 23
Kache Kaio · TE
CFBD athlete 5297067
- receiving · LONG
- 22
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 44
- receiving · YPR
- 8.8
Kaina Watson · WR
CFBD athlete 5222789
- receiving · LONG
- 12
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 25
- receiving · YPR
- 8.3
Kian Afrookhteh · PK
CFBD athlete 5219602
- kicking · FGA
- 10
- kicking · FGM
- 6
- kicking · LONG
- 48
- kicking · PCT
- 0.600
- kicking · PTS
- 28
- kicking · XPA
- 10
- kicking · XPM
- 10
Kye Stokes · CB
CFBD athlete 4831962
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 23
Landon Rehkow · P
CFBD athlete 5150622
- punting · In 20
- 16
- punting · LONG
- 60
- punting · NO
- 35
- punting · TB
- 2
- punting · YDS
- 1495
- punting · YPP
- 42.7
Markie Grant · CB
CFBD athlete 5220540
- defensive · PD
- 5
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 24
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Mataira Brown · LB
CFBD athlete 5297059
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 5
McCae Hillstead · QB
CFBD athlete 4923285
- passing · ATT
- 37
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 17
- passing · INT
- 4
- passing · PCT
- 0.459
- passing · TD
- 2
- passing · YDS
- 225
- passing · YPA
- 6.1
- rushing · CAR
- 15
- rushing · LONG
- 14
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 53
- rushing · YPC
- 3.5
Nehemiah Washington · RB
CFBD athlete 5265504
- rushing · CAR
- 5
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 6
- rushing · YPC
- 1.2
Nikko Boncore · WR
CFBD athlete 5243087
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 43
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 98
- receiving · YPR
- 16.3
Noah White · RB
CFBD athlete 5297079
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 20.8
- kickReturns · LONG
- 24
- kickReturns · NO
- 5
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 104
- receiving · LONG
- 27
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 64
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
- rushing · CAR
- 11
- rushing · LONG
- 9
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 11
- rushing · YPC
- 1.0
Paxton Naegle · DT
CFBD athlete 5215368
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Rex Haynes · WR
CFBD athlete 5086629
- receiving · LONG
- 23
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 23
- receiving · YPR
- 23.0
Ronnie Mageo · DT
CFBD athlete 5222193
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Sesi Vailahi · RB
CFBD athlete 5125366
- kickReturns · AVG
- 22.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 22
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 22
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 3
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -3
- rushing · YPC
- -1.5
Seth Wilfred · OL
CFBD athlete 5219033
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Ta'Avili Tuitama · DT
CFBD athlete 5220795
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Talan Arnett · WR
CFBD athlete 5447712
- kickReturns · AVG
- 21.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 21
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 21
Tevita Tuha · LB
CFBD athlete 5297077
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Tyree Morris · DT
CFBD athlete 5083868
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 28
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
Utah State -6.75
DraftKings snapshot: Utah State -6.5
Book quote differs from the comparison line.
Utah State by 9.55
2.80 points toward Utah State versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Utah State.
- Fitted offset: +5.87
- Net EPA rating difference: +5.61
- Fitted home field: -1.93
Reconciles to 9.55 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 7ac2d1bd9062d3611223f11265952d161bd28d35770a82d8d51d763f299a9e61 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast f599cceac185d5b496bb0f8389b9ebfd03b4104f7403e6cc5c2457e348b84c6d · through week 8.
What changed?
12 saved cards for this gameMarket spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved -0.25 points.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -6.5 | -6.75 | -0.25 |
| Model spread | -9.55 | -9.55 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +3.05 | +2.8 | -0.25 |
Negative spreads favor Utah State; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
- Odds source SHA-256
- c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
- Odds source SHA-256
- 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 7ac2d1bd9062d3611223f11265952d161bd28d35770a82d8d51d763f299a9e61. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.
Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +2.8 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
Utah State win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 69%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Utah State -7
- Stacked ensemble
- 81%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Utah State.
- away elo: +18.18 (path difference 9.10)
- home adjusted epa: +8.61 (path difference 8.63)
- away adjusted success allowed: +7.73 (path difference 6.74)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +7.25 (path difference 3.79)
- home elo: -7.20 (path difference 1.14)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +6.86 (path difference 7.58)
- away adjusted success: -6.79 (path difference 5.64)
- home adjusted success: -5.73 (path difference 4.45)
- away adjusted epa allowed: +5.34 (path difference 6.44)
- home adjusted passing epa: -5.14 (path difference 4.00)
- home adjusted success allowed: +5.00 (path difference 5.81)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -4.98 (path difference 5.00)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.73 (path difference 6.67)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -4.59 (path difference 1.82)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.28 (path difference 1.82)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +3.89 (path difference 2.34)
- home adjusted second level yards: +3.43 (path difference 1.88)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -3.07 (path difference 2.72)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: -2.85 (path difference 1.77)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +2.65 (path difference 1.06)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +2.34 (path difference 3.24)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +2.33 (path difference 0.97)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: -2.27 (path difference 6.54)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.92 (path difference 2.77)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +1.87 (path difference 1.29)
- away talent: -1.74 (path difference 0.79)
- away adjusted epa: -1.69 (path difference 1.00)
- home conference: +1.64 (path difference 1.98)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.39 (path difference 1.84)
- home adjusted line yards: -1.27 (path difference 0.52)
- away conference: +1.25 (path difference 1.84)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.17 (path difference 0.39)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: +0.98 (path difference 1.59)
- home adjusted standard down success: -0.97 (path difference 1.52)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.93 (path difference 1.28)
- away adjusted line yards: -0.88 (path difference 0.36)
- home talent: +0.73 (path difference 0.74)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: -0.67 (path difference 2.81)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.65 (path difference 0.49)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.41 (path difference 0.64)
- away adjusted standard down success: +0.37 (path difference 0.89)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.32 (path difference 0.14)
- away adjusted passing down success: +0.27 (path difference 0.32)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.24 (path difference 0.12)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.21 (path difference 0.69)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.20 (path difference 0.03)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.16 (path difference 0.42)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.15 (path difference 1.92)
- week: +0.11 (path difference 0.79)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.10 (path difference 0.02)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.09 (path difference 0.33)
- home adjusted open field yards: -0.09 (path difference 1.02)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.08 (path difference 0.37)
- home adjusted passing down success: +0.02 (path difference 2.33)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.01 (path difference 0.01)
Reconciles to 80.56 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs c183921df005f0f91cb087bf18a0f219f1d51ee79cea82a5f48d9ae543820a42 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 4048331be2f4f5379ad13f67f7134c049b55c1d07745e2f66728faeab0d20524 · through week 8.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.
Colorado State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 93 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durell RobinsonCFBD athlete 4894661 Week 5 vs Oregon State: 24 attempts · 6.9 YPC · 66.7% success · -0.016 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Texas State: 7 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.361 raw PPA. Week 8 vs San Diego State: 19 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 57.9% success · 0.330 raw PPA. | 50 | 5.6 | 0 | 53.8% | 91 / 4.7 |
Jayden BrownCFBD athlete 5095078 Week 5 vs Oregon State: 3 attempts · 21.0 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.582 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Texas State: 6 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.696 raw PPA. Week 8 vs San Diego State: 5 attempts · 4.6 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.151 raw PPA. | 14 | 7.7 | 0 | 15.1% | 52 / 8.7 |
Hauss HejnyCFBD athlete 5079443 Week 8 vs San Diego State: 11 attempts · 7.7 YPC · 72.7% success · 0.440 raw PPA. | 11 | 7.7 | 0 | 11.8% | 23 / 9.1 |
Ksaan FarrarCFBD athlete 5212610 Week 5 vs Oregon State: 1 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 2.786 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Texas State: 6 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.849 raw PPA. | 7 | 3.9 | 1 | 7.5% | 14 / 3.1 |
Cedric RossCFBD athlete 5290862 Week 5 vs Oregon State: 2 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.104 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Texas State: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.152 raw PPA. Week 8 vs San Diego State: 3 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.058 raw PPA. | 6 | 3.8 | 0 | 6.5% | 9 / 3.7 |
Utah State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 93 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Javen JacobsCFBD athlete 4816099 Week 5 vs Boise State: 10 attempts · 13.9 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.916 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Washington State: 15 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.109 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Texas State: 14 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 21.4% success · -0.149 raw PPA. | 39 | 6.2 | 0 | 41.9% | 85 / 5.4 |
Grady BrosterhousCFBD athlete 5081197 Week 5 vs Boise State: 10 attempts · 0.0 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.669 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Washington State: 13 attempts · 1.5 YPC · 18.2% success · -0.685 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Texas State: 11 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.190 raw PPA. | 34 | 1.8 | 8 | 36.6% | 94 / 3.0 |
Noah WhiteCFBD athlete 5297079 Week 5 vs Boise State: 2 attempts · -1.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.981 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Washington State: 2 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.164 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Texas State: 3 attempts · -0.3 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.749 raw PPA. | 7 | 0.6 | 0 | 7.5% | 11 / 1.0 |
McCae HillsteadCFBD athlete 4923285 Week 5 vs Boise State: 6 attempts · 1.7 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.172 raw PPA. | 6 | 1.7 | 1 | 6.5% | 14 / 4.1 |
Nehemiah WashingtonCFBD athlete 5265504 Week 5 vs Boise State: 3 attempts · 1.7 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.356 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Texas State: 1 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.094 raw PPA. | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 4.3% | 5 / 1.2 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | Utah StateOffense | Colorado StateDefense | Colorado StateOffense | Utah StateDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | -0.05 4th | +0.30 1st | +0.24 82nd | +0.03 66th |
| Success rate | 35.3% 4th | 52.8% 0th | 46.2% 71st | 40.0% 56th |
| Explosiveness | 1.34 88th | 1.26 34th | 1.40 99th | 1.12 88th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | -0.16 1st | +0.26 1st | +0.18 80th | +0.00 59th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.12 24th | +0.43 4th | +0.41 86th | +0.08 79th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 18.3% 7th | 13.5% 19th | 13.8% 64th | 14.1% 27th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:12 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:12 AM CDT
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.
- Kali Nguma · Colorado State · PAAR 3.13 · 5 attempts
- Kian Afrookhteh · Utah State · PAAR -3.46 · 10 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Utah State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: -3.5 · Snapshot spread: -6.5
First locally observed: -6.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 64.5 · Snapshot total: 63.5
Total · First locally observed: 63.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -245 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -218 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +200 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +180 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: -6.5 · Snapshot spread: -7
First locally observed: -6.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 64 · Snapshot total: 63
Total · First locally observed: 63.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -250 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -235 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +200 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +200 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Utah State
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.0 · 7 rated weeks · Pac-12
Colorado State
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Pac-12
Travel
Colorado State travels 359 miles (shorter than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Colorado State leads 40–38, 2 ties in 80 meetings since 1902.
- 2024Utah State at Colorado State37–42 · Colorado State
- 2023Colorado State at Utah State24–44 · Utah State
- 2022Utah State at Colorado State17–13 · Utah State
- 2021Colorado State at Utah State24–26 · Utah State
- 2019Colorado State at Utah State24–34 · Utah State
- 2018Utah State at Colorado State29–24 · Utah State
CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.