Week 10 · 2026

Texas State at Oregon State

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Texas State

Window: 2026-11-01 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-16 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T03:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Brad Jackson QB 3 games	44.4% 44 / 99 plays	69.0% 20 / 29 plays
Torrance Burgess Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	53.3% 24 / 45 plays
Jaylen Jenkins RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	47.1% 8 / 17 plays
Taji Atkins RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 3 plays
Davian Jackson RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 3 plays
Juntavious Harris RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 1 / 3 plays
Beau Sparks WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays
Tucker Cusano WR 1 games	0.0% 0 / 1 plays	— 0 / 0 plays

Traditional season production · 69 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Amarion Atwood · DB

CFBD athlete 5077881

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Antavious Woody · DL

CFBD athlete 4816086

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Arvis Battle Jr. · TE

CFBD athlete 5217799

kickReturns · AVG: 7.0
kickReturns · LONG: 7
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 7
receiving · LONG: 1
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 1
receiving · YPR: 1.0

Ayden Jones · LB

CFBD athlete 5154582

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 37

Beau Sparks · WR

CFBD athlete 5152414

receiving · LONG: 63
receiving · REC: 30
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 402
receiving · YPR: 13.4
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 9
rushing · YPC: 9.0

Blaine Carver · LB

CFBD athlete 5295881

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Blake Isbell · DL

CFBD athlete 5222547

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Blake Smith · TE

CFBD athlete 4685157

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 41
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 70
receiving · YPR: 10.0

Brad Jackson · QB

CFBD athlete 5148803

fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 232
passing · COMPLETIONS: 156
passing · INT: 5
passing · PCT: 0.672
passing · TD: 18
passing · YDS: 1933
passing · YPA: 8.3
rushing · CAR: 85
rushing · LONG: 63
rushing · TD: 6
rushing · YDS: 436
rushing · YPC: 5.1

Bryce Carter · DL

CFBD athlete 4432676

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Chancellor Owens · DL

CFBD athlete 5156286

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Chase Davis · DB

CFBD athlete 5077812

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10

Chris Dawn Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5077873

receiving · LONG: 67
receiving · REC: 41
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 467
receiving · YPR: 11.4
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 10
rushing · YPC: 3.3

Cole Nilles · LB

CFBD athlete 5226287

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 15
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Cole Pryor · RB

CFBD athlete 5258487

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 20
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Colt Sparks · DL

CFBD athlete 5209994

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Cordarian Powell · DB

CFBD athlete 5215565

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Craig Royal Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5295875

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 34

D'Ante Keys · DL

CFBD athlete 5258048

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Dameon Crowe · WR

CFBD athlete 5303264

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 18.5
kickReturns · LONG: 19
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 37
puntReturns · AVG: 22.7
puntReturns · LONG: 77
puntReturns · NO: 6
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 136
receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 37
receiving · YPR: 9.3

Darius Davis · LB

CFBD athlete 5303266

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 13

Davian Jackson · RB

CFBD athlete 5216509

kickReturns · AVG: 18.1
kickReturns · LONG: 23
kickReturns · NO: 7
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 127
receiving · LONG: 24
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 49
receiving · YPR: 12.3
rushing · CAR: 67
rushing · LONG: 57
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 321
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Dexter Ricks Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 4838691

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 7

Donterry Russell · DL

CFBD athlete 4794105

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 19

Dylan Cunanan · PK

CFBD athlete 5220121

kicking · FGA: 3
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0.000
kicking · PTS: 1
kicking · XPA: 2
kicking · XPM: 1

Gavin Parkhurst · QB

CFBD athlete 5202460

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 9
passing · COMPLETIONS: 8
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.889
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 114
passing · YPA: 12.7
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -3
rushing · YPC: -0.6

Greg Gipson Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5258054

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

J.P. Deeter · DL

CFBD athlete 4833619

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 6

Jacob Bonilla · PK

CFBD athlete 5295880

kicking · FGA: 12
kicking · FGM: 8
kicking · LONG: 51
kicking · PCT: 0.667
kicking · PTS: 60
kicking · XPA: 36
kicking · XPM: 36

Jake Simpson · TE

CFBD athlete 5121615

kickReturns · AVG: 9.0
kickReturns · LONG: 9
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 9
receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 7
receiving · YPR: 7.0

Jason Patterson · DL

CFBD athlete 5159271

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Javante Mackey · LB

CFBD athlete 4904970

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 33

Jayden Bradley · DB

CFBD athlete 5295874

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 30
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 56
interceptions · AVG: 20.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 20

Jayden Lawton · DB

CFBD athlete 4910801

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 23

Jaylen Harris · DL

CFBD athlete 5383815

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jaylen Jenkins · RB

CFBD athlete 4916885

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 21.6
kickReturns · LONG: 100
kickReturns · NO: 9
kickReturns · TD: 1
kickReturns · YDS: 194
receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 25
receiving · YPR: 8.3
rushing · CAR: 38
rushing · LONG: 22
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 196
rushing · YPC: 5.2

Jo'Laison Landry · DL

CFBD athlete 5078104

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 14

John Smith · DB

CFBD athlete 5383806

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Jonathan Davis · DL

CFBD athlete 5383807

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Jordan Martin · WR

CFBD athlete 5156893

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 34
receiving · YPR: 6.8

Jordan Sample · LB

CFBD athlete 5085348

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Josiah Graham · DL

CFBD athlete 3941258

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Juntavious Harris · RB

CFBD athlete 5269148

kickReturns · AVG: 16.5
kickReturns · LONG: 21
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 33
rushing · CAR: 12
rushing · LONG: 45
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 89
rushing · YPC: 7.4

Jussiah Ali · DL

CFBD athlete 5383812

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 3

Kaleb James · DL

CFBD athlete 4870761

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Kylen Evans · WR

CFBD athlete 5149265

receiving · LONG: 31
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 214
receiving · YPR: 17.8

LaKeyleon Graves · WR

CFBD athlete 5277007

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 49
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 56
receiving · YPR: 28.0

Malik Willis · DB

CFBD athlete 5157120

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13
puntReturns · AVG: 5.0
puntReturns · LONG: 5
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 5

Mekhi Buchanan · DL

CFBD athlete 5121605

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 3

Michael Patterson · DB

CFBD athlete 5077694

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 32
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Phillip Bradford · DL

CFBD athlete 5084220

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 14

Ryan Nolan · DB

CFBD athlete 5220914

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 29
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Simeon Garner · DL

CFBD athlete 5258046

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Skylar Lewis · WR

CFBD athlete 5215627

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Sully Burns · OL

CFBD athlete 4878107

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

TJ Burkhalter · LB

CFBD athlete 5248292

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Ta'Derius Collins · DL

CFBD athlete 5120316

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Taji Atkins · RB

CFBD athlete 5147756

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 26.0
kickReturns · LONG: 26
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 26
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 19
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 26
rushing · YPC: 5.2

Terrence Cooks II · LB

CFBD athlete 4586313

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 47

Tice Williams · LB

CFBD athlete 5149747

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Tom Flintoff · P

CFBD athlete 5383813

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
punting · In 20: 7
punting · LONG: 53
punting · NO: 20
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 742
punting · YPP: 37.1
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -17
rushing · YPC: -17.0

Torrance Burgess Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5088888

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 6.0
puntReturns · LONG: 6
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 6
receiving · LONG: 31
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 123
receiving · YPR: 7.2
rushing · CAR: 129
rushing · LONG: 76
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 922
rushing · YPC: 7.1

Treylin Payne · LB

CFBD athlete 4702916

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 24

Trez Moore · DB

CFBD athlete 5159343

defensive · PD: 9
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 33
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 8.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 8

Tucker Cusano · WR

CFBD athlete 5236321

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
receiving · LONG: 41
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 168
receiving · YPR: 14.0

Ty Stamey · TE

CFBD athlete 5085497

receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 138
receiving · YPR: 12.5

Tymere Jackson · DL

CFBD athlete 5220909

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6.5
defensive · TOT: 28

William Mitchell · DB

CFBD athlete 5193336

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Zechariah Sample · WR

CFBD athlete 5138042

puntReturns · AVG: 8.0
puntReturns · LONG: 23
puntReturns · NO: 4
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 32
receiving · LONG: 72
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 250
receiving · YPR: 19.2

Oregon State

Window: 2026-11-01 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T03:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Braden Atkinson QB 3 games	46.5% 66 / 142 plays	57.1% 4 / 7 plays
Cornell Hatcher Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	63.0% 17 / 27 plays
AJ Newberry RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	53.8% 14 / 26 plays
Jake Reichle RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	83.3% 10 / 12 plays
Kourdey Glass RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	45.5% 5 / 11 plays
Maalik Murphy QB 1 games	62.5% 5 / 8 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
Tre Garrison RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	55.6% 5 / 9 plays
Brady Jones QB 1 games	0.0% 0 / 1 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 62 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Newberry · RB

CFBD athlete 4917981

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 4
passing · YPA: 4.0
receiving · LONG: 88
receiving · REC: 26
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 299
receiving · YPR: 11.5
rushing · CAR: 72
rushing · LONG: 35
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 465
rushing · YPC: 6.5

AJ Winsor · P

CFBD athlete 5157297

punting · In 20: 6
punting · LONG: 57
punting · NO: 20
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 857
punting · YPP: 42.9

Aaron Butler · WR

CFBD athlete 5079357

receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 233
receiving · YPR: 14.6
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 30
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 59
rushing · YPC: 11.8

Adonis McDaniel · WR

CFBD athlete 5300309

receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 30
receiving · YPR: 15.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 6
rushing · YPC: 6.0

Adrian Onyiego · LB

CFBD athlete 5148711

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Aeryn Hampton · WR

CFBD athlete 5293573

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 22
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 253
receiving · YPR: 11.5

Aiden Sullivan · LB

CFBD athlete 5218519

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 60

Blake Thompson · DB

CFBD athlete 5258366

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16

Braden Atkinson · QB

CFBD athlete 5212654

fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 3
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 331
passing · COMPLETIONS: 221
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.668
passing · TD: 25
passing · YDS: 2956
passing · YPA: 8.9
receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 4
receiving · YPR: 4.0
rushing · CAR: 31
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: -13
rushing · YPC: -0.4

Brady Jones · QB

CFBD athlete 5296163

passing · ATT: 3
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.333
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 5
passing · YPA: 1.7
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 20
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Caleb Ojeda · PK

CFBD athlete 5228037

kicking · FGA: 13
kicking · FGM: 10
kicking · LONG: 54
kicking · PCT: 0.769
kicking · PTS: 67
kicking · XPA: 37
kicking · XPM: 37

Cameron Hewitt · DT

CFBD athlete 5393667

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Clive Pond · LB

CFBD athlete 5157299

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Cornell Hatcher Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5167313

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 51
rushing · LONG: 27
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 267
rushing · YPC: 5.2

Cynai Thomas · WR

CFBD athlete 5160504

receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 177
receiving · YPR: 12.6

D.C. Temple · TE

CFBD athlete 4869821

receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 29
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 283
receiving · YPR: 9.8

Daniel Matagi · DT

CFBD athlete 5165051

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Drake Vickers · DB

CFBD athlete 5157295

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 33
interceptions · AVG: 19.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 19

Dylan Layne · LB

CFBD athlete 5083176

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 35

Eddie Freauff · WR

CFBD athlete 5193554

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 17
receiving · YPR: 8.5

Eric Olsen · TE

CFBD athlete 5088952

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 40
receiving · REC: 37
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 424
receiving · YPR: 11.5
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -5
rushing · YPC: -5.0

Gabe Milbourn · TE

CFBD athlete 4879572

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 35
receiving · YPR: 5.8
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 2
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Gyriece Goodman · LB

CFBD athlete 5218523

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 39

Harlem Howard · DB

CFBD athlete 5120455

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Isaiah Houi · DB

CFBD athlete 5225274

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 33
interceptions · AVG: -1.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: -1
puntReturns · AVG: 9.0
puntReturns · LONG: 14
puntReturns · NO: 4
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 36

Ishmael Findlayter · LB

CFBD athlete 5086979

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jabari Odoemenem · LB

CFBD athlete 5153818

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 29
interceptions · AVG: 7.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 7

Jackson Bowers · TE

CFBD athlete 4870629

receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 30
receiving · YPR: 15.0

Jacob Schuster · DT

CFBD athlete 4700139

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 9

Jadyn Oh · PK

CFBD athlete 5161639

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jaheim Patterson · DB

CFBD athlete 5218521

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 15

Jake Reichle · RB

CFBD athlete 5085883

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
receiving · LONG: 23
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 50
receiving · YPR: 10.0
rushing · CAR: 22
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 100
rushing · YPC: 4.5

Jameson Powell · WR

CFBD athlete 5209415

puntReturns · AVG: 12.0
puntReturns · LONG: 24
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 24
receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 22
receiving · YPR: 5.5

Jarrel Comer · LB

CFBD athlete 5393659

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 16

Jaylen Hill · DT

CFBD athlete 5297783

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Jesse Legree · WR

CFBD athlete 5289510

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 90
receiving · REC: 53
receiving · TD: 14
receiving · YDS: 1110
receiving · YPR: 20.9

Kai Wheaton · DB

CFBD athlete 5207644

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Kord Shaw · LB

CFBD athlete 4875851

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 20

Kourdey Glass · RB

CFBD athlete 5209304

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 17.8
kickReturns · LONG: 35
kickReturns · NO: 6
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 107
receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 26
receiving · YPR: 5.2
rushing · CAR: 17
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 80
rushing · YPC: 4.7

Logan Knapp · LB

CFBD athlete 5216314

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 16

Lolani Finau · DT

CFBD athlete 5393666

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Maalik Murphy · QB

CFBD athlete 4685497

passing · ATT: 12
passing · COMPLETIONS: 11
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.917
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 81
passing · YPA: 6.8
receiving · LONG: 2
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 2
receiving · YPR: 2.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -4
rushing · YPC: -4.0

Malachi Durant · WR

CFBD athlete 5126526

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 21
receiving · YPR: 10.5

Marquis Raspberry · DB

CFBD athlete 5393661

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Milan Clark · DB

CFBD athlete 5157296

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Nick Norris · DT

CFBD athlete 4769838

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Niklas Fisher · LB

CFBD athlete 5207797

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 17

RJ Whitten · DB

CFBD athlete 5393658

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Raesjon Davis · LB

CFBD athlete 4431247

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Sailasa Vadrawale · DB

CFBD athlete 5090566

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 24
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 14.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 28

Sean Craig · DB

CFBD athlete 5216545

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

TJ Crandall · DB

CFBD athlete 5077302

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 18
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Takari Hickle · LB

CFBD athlete 4872750

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 6
defensive · SACKS: 6.0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 11.5
defensive · TOT: 41

Tevita Pome'e · DT

CFBD athlete 5158453

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 13

Tre Garrison · RB

CFBD athlete 5325545

kickReturns · AVG: 12.3
kickReturns · LONG: 20
kickReturns · NO: 4
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 49
receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 0
receiving · YPR: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 29
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 103
rushing · YPC: 3.6

Trey Glasper · DB

CFBD athlete 5214560

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Tyler Bailey · DT

CFBD athlete 5393668

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 6
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 20
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Tyree Blake · LB

CFBD athlete 5085886

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Will Haverland · LB

CFBD athlete 5193051

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Xander Chisolm · DB

CFBD athlete 5152802

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Xayvion Noland · WR

CFBD athlete 5161892

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 22.0
kickReturns · LONG: 46
kickReturns · NO: 4
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 88
puntReturns · AVG: 6.8
puntReturns · LONG: 29
puntReturns · NO: 8
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 54
receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 41
receiving · YPR: 8.2

Zephen Walker · DB

CFBD athlete 5216841

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

Oregon State -6.25

DraftKings snapshot: Oregon State -6.5

Book quote differs from the comparison line.

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Oregon State by 7.69

1.44 points toward Oregon State versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Oregon State.

Fitted offset: +5.20
Net EPA rating difference: +3.68
Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to 7.69 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs cd416c96e1ff8b5d9c90c8fc61bb18bb254483eda2c420e7ec52bd207f3b49db · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 349a16b560f3161837fc43e516bcf462037605194d986c876849345793a96dc6 · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Oregon State · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	-6.25	-6.25
Model spread	-7.69	-7.69
Model gap	+1.44	+1.44

Negative spreads favor Oregon State; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: cd416c96e1ff8b5d9c90c8fc61bb18bb254483eda2c420e7ec52bd207f3b49db. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +1.4 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

Oregon State win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 66%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Oregon State -6
Stacked ensemble: 72%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Oregon State.

away adjusted success: -13.58 (path difference 5.51)
home adjusted success: +7.46 (path difference 5.57)
home adjusted passing epa: +5.51 (path difference 4.25)
home elo: +4.99 (path difference 2.75)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +4.24 (path difference 3.38)
home adjusted second level yards: +3.90 (path difference 2.27)
home adjusted success allowed: +3.87 (path difference 0.67)
away adjusted rushing epa: +3.84 (path difference 2.46)
home adjusted standard down success: +3.81 (path difference 2.80)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +3.31 (path difference 1.27)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +3.11 (path difference 2.43)
away adjusted passing down success: +2.98 (path difference 0.98)
away adjusted success allowed: +2.73 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -2.65 (path difference 0.79)
home adjusted explosiveness: +2.45 (path difference 2.23)
away adjusted epa: -2.09 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: -1.98 (path difference 1.63)
home conference: +1.96 (path difference 1.35)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.92 (path difference 0.53)
home talent: +1.81 (path difference 0.85)
home adjusted rushing epa: -1.79 (path difference 0.66)
home adjusted epa allowed: -1.76 (path difference 0.32)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -1.66 (path difference 2.22)
home adjusted open field yards: -1.61 (path difference 0.86)
away adjusted standard down success: +1.54 (path difference 0.67)
away conference: +1.51 (path difference 1.32)
away talent: -1.47 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +1.40 (path difference 0.63)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.37 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.35 (path difference 0.52)
home adjusted epa: -1.30 (path difference 3.69)
away adjusted explosiveness: +1.29 (path difference 0.33)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +1.22 (path difference 0.73)
away adjusted open field yards: +1.22 (path difference 1.20)
week: -1.18 (path difference 0.37)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.07 (path difference 1.32)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.89 (path difference 0.08)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.80 (path difference 0.79)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.79 (path difference 0.15)
away adjusted line yards: -0.79 (path difference 1.40)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.78 (path difference 1.18)
home adjusted line yards: +0.76 (path difference 0.48)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.64 (path difference 0.94)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.61 (path difference 0.22)
away elo: +0.56 (path difference 0.55)
home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.47 (path difference 0.08)
away adjusted epa allowed: -0.24 (path difference 0.35)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.23 (path difference 0.04)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.20 (path difference 0.44)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.19 (path difference 0.05)
home adjusted passing down success: +0.18 (path difference 0.88)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.10 (path difference 0.02)
away adjusted second level yards: +0.06 (path difference 0.40)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.02 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.00 (path difference 0.00)

Reconciles to 72.44 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 03533ee200e6041ae5701cef126521af575536dea307e5ecb2ba54f269dd2ed4 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast d1e620925217625ad142664c25738975776b5fb6b3acee04443bde8a98603cdc · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Texas State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 107 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Torrance Burgess Jr. CFBD athlete 5088888 Week 7 vs Colorado State: 24 attempts · 9.3 YPC · 58.3% success · 0.495 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Utah State: 10 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.084 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Boise State: 11 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 45.5% success · -0.054 raw PPA.	45	6.8	0	42.1%	128 / 7.1
Brad Jackson CFBD athlete 5148803 Week 7 vs Colorado State: 13 attempts · 13.9 YPC · 84.6% success · 1.559 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Utah State: 12 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.637 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Boise State: 9 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 37.5% success · 0.199 raw PPA.	34	7.4	5	31.8%	84 / 5.0
Jaylen Jenkins CFBD athlete 4916885 Week 7 vs Colorado State: 10 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.469 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Utah State: 7 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 28.6% success · -0.433 raw PPA.	17	5.2	0	15.9%	38 / 5.2
Taji Atkins CFBD athlete 5147756 Week 7 vs Colorado State: 2 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.190 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Utah State: 1 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.290 raw PPA.	3	1.7	0	2.8%	5 / 5.2
Davian Jackson CFBD athlete 5216509 Week 9 vs Boise State: 3 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.408 raw PPA.	3	2.0	0	2.8%	66 / 4.7

Oregon State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 104 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Cornell Hatcher Jr. CFBD athlete 5167313 Week 6 vs San Diego State: 8 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.187 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Washington State: 10 attempts · 6.5 YPC · 70.0% success · 0.504 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Fresno State: 9 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.434 raw PPA.	27	5.4	0	26.0%	53 / 5.2
AJ Newberry CFBD athlete 4917981 Week 6 vs San Diego State: 8 attempts · 6.8 YPC · 62.5% success · 0.374 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Washington State: 11 attempts · 9.5 YPC · 63.6% success · 0.539 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Fresno State: 7 attempts · 4.9 YPC · 28.6% success · 0.167 raw PPA.	26	7.4	0	25.0%	71 / 6.5
Braden Atkinson CFBD athlete 5212654 Week 6 vs San Diego State: 1 attempts · -9.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.000 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Washington State: 4 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.193 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Fresno State: 9 attempts · -1.6 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.993 raw PPA.	14	-0.5	7	13.5%	30 / -0.5
Jake Reichle CFBD athlete 5085883 Week 6 vs San Diego State: 6 attempts · 6.3 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.440 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Washington State: 6 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.043 raw PPA.	12	4.8	0	11.5%	24 / 4.7
Kourdey Glass CFBD athlete 5209304 Week 6 vs San Diego State: 10 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.332 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Washington State: 1 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.160 raw PPA.	11	5.0	0	10.6%	17 / 4.7

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	Oregon StateOffense	Texas StateDefense	Texas StateOffense	Oregon StateDefense
PPA/play	+0.28 93rd	+0.13 32nd	+0.24 86th	+0.09 45th
Success rate	49.4% 91st	43.7% 22nd	48.8% 86th	39.9% 59th
Explosiveness	1.27 66th	1.24 42nd	1.29 73rd	1.20 60th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.26 94th	+0.04 45th	+0.16 75th	-0.00 61st
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.33 70th	+0.28 22nd	+0.47 93rd	+0.29 20th
Havoc allowed / created	12.6% 82nd	14.1% 26th	12.7% 81st	16.4% 60th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:59 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:59 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Dylan Cunanan · Texas State · PAAR -7.85 · 3 attempts
Caleb Ojeda · Oregon State · PAAR 4.73 · 13 attempts
Jacob Bonilla · Texas State · PAAR -1.84 · 11 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Oregon State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -8.5 · Snapshot spread: -6.5

First locally observed: -6.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence