Week 9 · 2026

Army at Memphis

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Army

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-01T00:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Cale Hellums QB 3 games	33.3% 7 / 21 plays	56.0% 51 / 91 plays
Godspower Nwawuihe RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	56.5% 13 / 23 plays
Carson Smith RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	35.3% 6 / 17 plays
Jake Rendina RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	58.3% 7 / 12 plays
Samari Howard WR 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	40.0% 4 / 10 plays
Bryson Luter QB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	40.0% 2 / 5 plays
Zach Mundell WR 2 games	100.0% 1 / 1 plays	100.0% 2 / 2 plays
Stroman Bridges WR 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 3 plays

Traditional season production · 71 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aden Self · WR

CFBD athlete 5219405

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Brady Mott · WR

CFBD athlete 5150328

rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -2
rushing · YPC: -1.0

Bradyn Anderson · WR

CFBD athlete 5219436

receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 163
receiving · YPR: 16.3
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 30
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 49
rushing · YPC: 16.3

Brennan Fisher · RB

CFBD athlete 5219426

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Brian Barton · S

CFBD athlete 5293696

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Bryson Banks · LB

CFBD athlete 5293710

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Bryson Hosea · PK

CFBD athlete 5219463

kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 2
kicking · XPA: 2
kicking · XPM: 2

Bryson Luter · QB

CFBD athlete 5293684

passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 7
passing · YPA: 3.5
rushing · CAR: 10
rushing · LONG: 69
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 128
rushing · YPC: 12.8

Cael Newton · DL

CFBD athlete 5219438

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 2

Cale Hellums · QB

CFBD athlete 5150297

passing · ATT: 69
passing · COMPLETIONS: 39
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.565
passing · TD: 3
passing · YDS: 422
passing · YPA: 6.1
rushing · CAR: 159
rushing · LONG: 58
rushing · TD: 16
rushing · YDS: 840
rushing · YPC: 5.3

Caleb Williams · S

CFBD athlete 5219412

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 20
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Cameron Binkowski · LB

CFBD athlete 5390371

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Campbell Sager · DL

CFBD athlete 5219435

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Carson Smith · RB

CFBD athlete 5150326

receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 20
receiving · YPR: 20.0
rushing · CAR: 40
rushing · LONG: 14
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 169
rushing · YPC: 4.2

Christian Winston · LB

CFBD athlete 5390361

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Christian Yousefzadeh · LB

CFBD athlete 5150317

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Christopher Williams · S

CFBD athlete 5150319

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Cole Searight · DB

CFBD athlete 5219409

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Daniel Ogordi · DB

CFBD athlete 5219429

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

David Clerk · WR

CFBD athlete 5150312

rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 15
rushing · YPC: 7.5

David Thom-Rogers · S

CFBD athlete 5293687

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Dawson Jones · PK

CFBD athlete 5219470

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
kicking · FGA: 9
kicking · FGM: 7
kicking · LONG: 51
kicking · PCT: 0.778
kicking · PTS: 49
kicking · XPA: 28
kicking · XPM: 28

Deion Miller · LB

CFBD athlete 5296924

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16

Demani Stewart · RB

CFBD athlete 5293701

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 16
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Devan Moss · CB

CFBD athlete 5219422

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Dillon Stowers · DL

CFBD athlete 5150369

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 23

Donovan Poe · DL

CFBD athlete 5150375

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Elijah Walton · LB

CFBD athlete 5219421

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 51
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Ethan Bradshaw · S

CFBD athlete 5390369

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ethan Washington · QB

CFBD athlete 5219408

passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 13
passing · YPA: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 14
rushing · YPC: 4.7

Godspower Nwawuihe · RB

CFBD athlete 5293685

receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 24
receiving · YPR: 12.0
rushing · CAR: 60
rushing · LONG: 66
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 355
rushing · YPC: 5.9

Grayson Baker · DL

CFBD athlete 5219467

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Henry Hulbert · S

CFBD athlete 5390367

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jack Bousum · DL

CFBD athlete 5150374

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Jackson Weingart · LB

CFBD athlete 5293711

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Jake Rendina · RB

CFBD athlete 5150329

rushing · CAR: 30
rushing · LONG: 61
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 173
rushing · YPC: 5.8

James Wagenseller · P

CFBD athlete 5150302

punting · In 20: 7
punting · LONG: 59
punting · NO: 20
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 930
punting · YPP: 46.5
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 9
rushing · YPC: 9.0

Jaquavious Moss · LB

CFBD athlete 5293691

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Jared Anthony · LB

CFBD athlete 5390391

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Javon Smith · DL

CFBD athlete 5219469

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jaxon Hammond · CB

CFBD athlete 4923279

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Jaydan Mayes · CB

CFBD athlete 5082128

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 26
kickReturns · AVG: 21.0
kickReturns · LONG: 28
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 42

Jaylen Jones · S

CFBD athlete 5293686

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Josh Milhollin · WR

CFBD athlete 5390352

puntReturns · AVG: 15.5
puntReturns · LONG: 26
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 31

Julian Porter · CB

CFBD athlete 5293682

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 25
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

KP Pointer · WR

CFBD athlete 5150368

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kai Woolfolk · LB

CFBD athlete 5293697

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Khaled Waliagha · LB

CFBD athlete 5219433

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Kody Harris-Miller · DL

CFBD athlete 5150364

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 13

Larry Pickett Jr. · S

CFBD athlete 5219418

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Nick Buchys · DL

CFBD athlete 5219443

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 13
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Nick McGlynn · LB

CFBD athlete 5293708

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Noah Nixon · LB

CFBD athlete 5150339

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 15

Noah Prior · TE

CFBD athlete 5219471

kickReturns · AVG: 7.0
kickReturns · LONG: 10
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 14

Parker Poloskey · TE

CFBD athlete 5150333

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 28
receiving · YPR: 9.3

Phillip Goodrich · LB

CFBD athlete 5203608

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Rob Houston · CB

CFBD athlete 5219407

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Samari Howard · WR

CFBD athlete 5150316

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 18.0
kickReturns · LONG: 18
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 18
receiving · LONG: 33
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 116
receiving · YPR: 10.5
rushing · CAR: 37
rushing · LONG: 54
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 346
rushing · YPC: 9.4

Sean Donovan · DL

CFBD athlete 5219456

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Stephen Nnadozie · S

CFBD athlete 5150298

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 39

Stratton Fuller · WR

CFBD athlete 5211750

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 27
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 67
rushing · YPC: 16.8

Stroman Bridges · WR

CFBD athlete 5293698

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 7
receiving · YPR: 3.5
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 16
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Tex Brannan · TE

CFBD athlete 5219468

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Thomas Ghislandi · DL

CFBD athlete 5390385

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tim Kloska · RB

CFBD athlete 5219417

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
puntReturns · AVG: 16.0
puntReturns · LONG: 16
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 16

Tobi Olawole · WR

CFBD athlete 5150373

receiving · LONG: 37
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 52
receiving · YPR: 17.3

Tre Benson III · WR

CFBD athlete 5150311

puntReturns · AVG: 8.5
puntReturns · LONG: 27
puntReturns · NO: 8
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 68
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 28
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 36
rushing · YPC: 9.0

Victor Afolabi · LB

CFBD athlete 5293700

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 6

Wanye Chukes · CB

CFBD athlete 5390356

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Zach Mundell · WR

CFBD athlete 5082118

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 82
passing · YPA: 41.0
receiving · LONG: 24
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 95
receiving · YPR: 10.6
rushing · CAR: 13
rushing · LONG: 66
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 189
rushing · YPC: 14.5

Zane Tallman · DB

CFBD athlete 5293689

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 25

Memphis

Window: 2026-10-22 (reported) · 2026-10-16 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-01T00:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Marcus Stokes QB 3 games	42.9% 45 / 105 plays	60.9% 14 / 23 plays
Jaylin Carter RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	51.7% 30 / 58 plays
Manny Covey RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	48.0% 12 / 25 plays
Dallan Hayden RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	16.7% 1 / 6 plays
Hunter Tipton TE 2 games	0.0% 0 / 1 plays	33.3% 1 / 3 plays
Jermane Hayes WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 59 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Ahmere Foster · S

CFBD athlete 4870718

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 19
interceptions · AVG: 24.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 48

Aidan O'Callaghan · TE

CFBD athlete 5229953

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 84
receiving · YPR: 8.4

Air Noland · QB

CFBD athlete 5079548

passing · ATT: 9
passing · COMPLETIONS: 7
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.778
passing · TD: 2
passing · YDS: 83
passing · YPA: 9.2
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 32
rushing · YPC: 6.4

Alante Brown · WR

CFBD athlete 4605477

fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 21.8
kickReturns · LONG: 43
kickReturns · NO: 6
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 131
puntReturns · AVG: 5.4
puntReturns · LONG: 19
puntReturns · NO: 9
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 49
receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 35
receiving · YPR: 11.7

Anthony Richard · CB

CFBD athlete 5156253

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 15

Beni Mwamba · S

CFBD athlete 5223981

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 11

Brady Kluse · WR

CFBD athlete 5148995

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 40
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 137
receiving · YPR: 19.6

Braylon Burnside · WR

CFBD athlete 5079354

receiving · LONG: 76
receiving · REC: 24
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 402
receiving · YPR: 16.8

Charlie Harrell · S

CFBD athlete 5152173

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Chauncey Logan · CB

CFBD athlete 4917485

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 26
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Dallan Hayden · RB

CFBD athlete 4698727

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 10
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 33
rushing · LONG: 38
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 195
rushing · YPC: 5.9

Darius Malcolm Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5225616

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

DeAngelo Thompson · DL

CFBD athlete 5220922

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 2

Denzel Gardner · QB

CFBD athlete 5178086

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 14
rushing · YPC: 3.5

Devan Lowe · DL

CFBD athlete 5296461

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Donovan Mathena · LB

CFBD athlete 5092997

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Dylan King · S

CFBD athlete 5295900

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Dylan Smith · S

CFBD athlete 5075591

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 34
interceptions · AVG: 15.7
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 47

Elijah Kinsler · DL

CFBD athlete 5146968

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 5.5
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 8.5
defensive · TOT: 33

Ellis Ellis Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5083052

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 18
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Harrison Tuck · P

CFBD athlete 5168859

punting · In 20: 9
punting · LONG: 53
punting · NO: 30
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 1223
punting · YPP: 40.8

Hunter Tipton · TE

CFBD athlete 5220352

receiving · LONG: 87
receiving · REC: 30
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 409
receiving · YPR: 13.6
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: -1
rushing · YPC: -0.2

Ian Foster · S

CFBD athlete 5163078

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 29
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 28.0
kickReturns · LONG: 28
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 28

J'Mond Tapp · DL

CFBD athlete 4685575

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 24
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

JJ Clayton · LB

CFBD athlete 5382928

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 17
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2

Jabari Ishmael · DL

CFBD athlete 4431341

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 8

Jacari Gatling · DL

CFBD athlete 5213236

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 12

Jaden Mckinney · DL

CFBD athlete 4941004

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 11
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jah'Keevi Garnett · LB

CFBD athlete 5382926

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jake Snyder · P

CFBD athlete 5295640

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jaylen Lewis · CB

CFBD athlete 5231305

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2

Jaylin Carter · RB

CFBD athlete 5222671

receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 101
receiving · YPR: 10.1
rushing · CAR: 128
rushing · LONG: 80
rushing · TD: 8
rushing · YDS: 833
rushing · YPC: 6.5

Jaylin Taylor · WR

CFBD athlete 5303254

receiving · LONG: 3
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 3
receiving · YPR: 3.0

Jemyri Davis · WR

CFBD athlete 5294438

receiving · LONG: 48
receiving · REC: 19
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 325
receiving · YPR: 17.1

Jermane Hayes · WR

CFBD athlete 5264658

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 93
receiving · REC: 28
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 366
receiving · YPR: 13.1
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 6
rushing · YPC: 6.0

Johnny Moody · CB

CFBD athlete 5237314

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Jonathan Harding · TE

CFBD athlete 5215626

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 9.0

Jordan Bell · S

CFBD athlete 5123174

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jordan Thompson · RB

CFBD athlete 5382927

rushing · CAR: 18
rushing · LONG: 72
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 158
rushing · YPC: 8.8

Joseph Head Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 4915621

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Joshua Joseph · WR

CFBD athlete 5382933

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 15
receiving · YPR: 7.5

Justin Wallace · DL

CFBD athlete 5089562

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

K.J. Miles · DL

CFBD athlete 4685455

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Kadan Spratling · LB

CFBD athlete 5291004

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Manny Covey · RB

CFBD athlete 4922983

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 27
receiving · YPR: 9.0
rushing · CAR: 68
rushing · LONG: 36
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 361
rushing · YPC: 5.3

Marcus Stokes · QB

CFBD athlete 5165807

fumbles · FUM: 4
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 224
passing · COMPLETIONS: 150
passing · INT: 6
passing · PCT: 0.670
passing · TD: 21
passing · YDS: 2161
passing · YPA: 9.6
rushing · CAR: 67
rushing · LONG: 21
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 237
rushing · YPC: 3.5

Michael Montgomery · LB

CFBD athlete 5152786

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 32
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 57

Philippe Laforge · PK

CFBD athlete 5265058

kicking · FGA: 13
kicking · FGM: 10
kicking · LONG: 44
kicking · PCT: 0.769
kicking · PTS: 67
kicking · XPA: 37
kicking · XPM: 37

Riley McGehee · OL

CFBD athlete 5196100

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Skyler Grant · OL

CFBD athlete 4710779

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Taylor Burton · DL

CFBD athlete 5155452

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 17

Terrell Timmons Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 4892983

receiving · LONG: 68
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 88
receiving · YPR: 29.3

Trey McDonald · LB

CFBD athlete 4781742

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Tychaun Chapman · WR

CFBD athlete 4685290

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 233
receiving · YPR: 16.6

Tylon Nash · LB

CFBD athlete 5094620

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Weston Simmons · LS

CFBD athlete 5161685

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Wolf Walker · LB

CFBD athlete 5295367

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Xavier Miles · DL

CFBD athlete 5220891

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Zach Ruffin · LB

CFBD athlete 5209942

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 30
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 41
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

Memphis -6.25

DraftKings snapshot: Memphis -6.5

Book quote differs from the comparison line.

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Memphis by 8.94

2.69 points toward Memphis versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Memphis.

Fitted offset: +5.87
Net EPA rating difference: +5.00
Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to 8.94 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 1e3911fcda6815f81016a7a9fd63ca71c1f6eb845c69f47298287e91521cba99 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 99ae33eace2ba901e195f363a76a7d3f76d6deed7a6999596c569fbd5beb8573 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved -0.25 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Memphis · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest	Change
Market spread	-6.0	-6.25	-0.25
Model spread	-8.94	-8.94	0.0
Model gap	+2.94	+2.69	-0.25

Negative spreads favor Memphis; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 1e3911fcda6815f81016a7a9fd63ca71c1f6eb845c69f47298287e91521cba99. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +2.7 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

Memphis win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 66%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Memphis -6
Stacked ensemble: 77%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Memphis.

away adjusted success: -12.87 (path difference 7.52)
away adjusted rushing epa: +7.32 (path difference 7.98)
home adjusted success: +7.27 (path difference 6.45)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: +7.13 (path difference 2.19)
home elo: +7.00 (path difference 5.84)
home adjusted passing epa: +6.19 (path difference 5.46)
away talent: +5.55 (path difference 3.23)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -5.36 (path difference 2.26)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.66 (path difference 2.51)
away adjusted success allowed: +4.41 (path difference 2.67)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: -3.68 (path difference 1.64)
home adjusted success allowed: +2.86 (path difference 0.52)
away adjusted epa: -2.84 (path difference 2.85)
home adjusted epa allowed: -2.82 (path difference 0.28)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +2.61 (path difference 0.47)
home adjusted line yards: +2.32 (path difference 0.56)
home talent: +2.22 (path difference 0.54)
away adjusted epa allowed: +2.11 (path difference 3.15)
home adjusted explosiveness: +1.90 (path difference 1.74)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.85 (path difference 1.08)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.71 (path difference 1.18)
away adjusted standard down success: +1.71 (path difference 0.02)
home adjusted standard down success: +1.57 (path difference 1.11)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: +1.47 (path difference 0.28)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: -1.39 (path difference 1.19)
away adjusted passing down success: -1.35 (path difference 1.90)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.22 (path difference 0.10)
away adjusted line yards: -1.18 (path difference 0.47)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.14 (path difference 0.50)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: +1.12 (path difference 0.96)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.79 (path difference 0.62)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.74 (path difference 0.49)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.65 (path difference 0.14)
home adjusted rushing epa: -0.63 (path difference 0.67)
away adjusted explosiveness: -0.63 (path difference 0.20)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.62 (path difference 2.39)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.58 (path difference 0.95)
away elo: +0.46 (path difference 0.59)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.37 (path difference 1.23)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.33 (path difference 0.27)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.30 (path difference 0.47)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.28 (path difference 0.06)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.25 (path difference 1.13)
home conference: +0.23 (path difference 1.13)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.22 (path difference 3.92)
away adjusted second level yards: +0.20 (path difference 0.06)
home adjusted passing down success: +0.18 (path difference 2.08)
week: -0.12 (path difference 1.19)
away conference: +0.11 (path difference 0.06)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -0.09 (path difference 0.10)
home adjusted open field yards: -0.09 (path difference 0.88)
home adjusted epa: -0.07 (path difference 2.56)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.06 (path difference 1.49)
home adjusted second level yards: +0.04 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.02 (path difference 0.95)

Reconciles to 77.16 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 59f59aaf43b24254bdae376f4ce67372b8eb090ac35d5b53e90a55b390e944d1 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 9e8a6d31f506e679f89ad537a62140f5bca66100f3ba1c768b9bfb336bbda671 · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Army

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 168 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Cale Hellums CFBD athlete 5150297 Week 6 vs Tulane: 37 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 59.5% success · 0.381 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 25 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 72.0% success · 1.052 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Tulsa: 30 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 37.9% success · 0.327 raw PPA.	92	5.8	1	54.8%	158 / 5.2
Godspower Nwawuihe CFBD athlete 5293685 Week 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 11 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 63.6% success · 0.086 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Tulsa: 12 attempts · 11.3 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.597 raw PPA.	23	8.3	0	13.7%	59 / 5.9
Carson Smith CFBD athlete 5150326 Week 6 vs Tulane: 11 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 54.5% success · -0.084 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 5 attempts · 2.4 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.416 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Tulsa: 2 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.097 raw PPA.	18	3.6	0	10.7%	39 / 4.2
Jake Rendina CFBD athlete 5150329 Week 6 vs Tulane: 3 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.211 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 7 attempts · 12.3 YPC · 85.7% success · 1.110 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Tulsa: 2 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.482 raw PPA.	12	8.4	0	7.1%	30 / 5.8
Samari Howard CFBD athlete 5150316 Week 6 vs Tulane: 2 attempts · 5.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.309 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 5 attempts · 8.6 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.496 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Tulsa: 3 attempts · -0.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.205 raw PPA.	10	5.3	0	6.0%	36 / 9.4

Memphis

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 125 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Jaylin Carter CFBD athlete 5222671 Week 6 vs UAB: 19 attempts · 6.9 YPC · 68.4% success · 0.616 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Tulane: 23 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 47.8% success · 0.163 raw PPA. Week 8 vs East Carolina: 16 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 37.5% success · -0.232 raw PPA.	58	5.5	0	46.4%	127 / 6.5
Marcus Stokes CFBD athlete 5165807 Week 6 vs UAB: 9 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 62.5% success · 0.188 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Tulane: 14 attempts · 1.1 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.129 raw PPA. Week 8 vs East Carolina: 7 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 71.4% success · 0.737 raw PPA.	30	2.7	7	24.0%	66 / 3.5
Manny Covey CFBD athlete 4922983 Week 6 vs UAB: 11 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 45.5% success · 0.023 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Tulane: 4 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 50.0% success · -1.395 raw PPA. Week 8 vs East Carolina: 11 attempts · 7.2 YPC · 54.5% success · 0.345 raw PPA.	26	5.5	0	20.8%	66 / 5.3
Dallan Hayden CFBD athlete 4698727 Week 6 vs UAB: 4 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.280 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Tulane: 2 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.174 raw PPA.	6	3.8	0	4.8%	33 / 5.9
Hunter Tipton CFBD athlete 5220352 Week 6 vs UAB: 2 attempts · 1.5 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.021 raw PPA. Week 8 vs East Carolina: 2 attempts · -2.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.707 raw PPA.	4	-0.5	1	3.2%	4 / -0.5

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	MemphisOffense	ArmyDefense	ArmyOffense	MemphisDefense
PPA/play	+0.20 72nd	+0.21 12th	+0.34 97th	+0.07 49th
Success rate	48.5% 85th	43.7% 20th	51.4% 98th	37.5% 75th
Explosiveness	1.24 54th	1.38 8th	1.14 15th	1.37 10th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.15 74th	+0.10 24th	+0.33 98th	+0.09 28th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.35 71st	+0.44 4th	+0.39 80th	+0.04 85th
Havoc allowed / created	13.7% 66th	12.4% 9th	7.1% 99th	17.9% 77th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:44 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:44 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Dawson Jones · Army · PAAR 3.01 · 9 attempts
Philippe Laforge · Memphis · PAAR 2.91 · 12 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Memphis spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -6 · Snapshot spread: -6.5

First locally observed: -6.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence