Week 10 · 2026

South Florida at East Carolina

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

South Florida

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-08 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T00:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
D.J. Crowther RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	42.2% 19 / 45 plays
Luke Kromenhoek QB 3 games	28.6% 4 / 14 plays	60.0% 9 / 15 plays
Jason Collins Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	40.0% 6 / 15 plays
Cameron Seldon WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 2 plays
Alvon Isaac RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 2 plays
Michael Van Buren Jr. QB 1 games	100.0% 1 / 1 plays	— 0 / 0 plays

Traditional season production · 61 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Alvon Isaac · RB

CFBD athlete 5193089

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 14
receiving · YPR: 7.0
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 24
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Amarion Fortenberry · CB

CFBD athlete 5148634

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 24

Arhmad Branch · WR

CFBD athlete 5125521

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 108
receiving · YPR: 9.8

Asani Redwood · DT

CFBD athlete 4911975

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 16
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Ashton Mosley · LB

CFBD athlete 5147731

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 24

Ayden Jackson · DB

CFBD athlete 5121711

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 27
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 42

Bryson Rodgers · WR

CFBD athlete 4870927

receiving · LONG: 42
receiving · REC: 33
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 345
receiving · YPR: 10.5

C.J. Hicks · DE

CFBD athlete 4685372

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 5
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 6
defensive · TOT: 26
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2

Cameron Seldon · WR

CFBD athlete 4870941

kickReturns · AVG: 24.2
kickReturns · LONG: 33
kickReturns · NO: 6
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 145
receiving · LONG: 36
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 186
receiving · YPR: 13.3
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 19
rushing · YPC: 3.8

Cedrick Hawkins Jr. · S

CFBD athlete 4870732

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Chase Garnett · RB

CFBD athlete 5218443

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 45
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 45
rushing · YPC: 45.0

Christian Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 5212666

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

D.J. Crowther · RB

CFBD athlete 5085507

receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 100
receiving · YPR: 11.1
rushing · CAR: 121
rushing · LONG: 39
rushing · TD: 7
rushing · YDS: 578
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Deangelo Bowden · LB

CFBD athlete 5216548

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Derrick Nichols III · S

CFBD athlete 5277123

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Deylen Platt · CB

CFBD athlete 5147189

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Easton Bonnett · LS

CFBD athlete 5228113

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Evan Dangler · TE

CFBD athlete 5117848

receiving · LONG: 15
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 54
receiving · YPR: 10.8

Gavin Leach · LB

CFBD athlete 5210230

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Grayson Howard · LB

CFBD athlete 4870828

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 30
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Greg Otten · LB

CFBD athlete 5160141

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Herlin Perry Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5257592

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Israel Boyce · S

CFBD athlete 5219636

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 23

Ja'Kyri Watson · CB

CFBD athlete 5291179

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jabari Smith · DB

CFBD athlete 5179812

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Jahari Grant · DL

CFBD athlete 5146385

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Jair Murphy · CB

CFBD athlete 5151629

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 16

Jason Collins Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5154559

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 32
receiving · YPR: 5.3
rushing · CAR: 52
rushing · LONG: 21
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 244
rushing · YPC: 4.7

Jeyquan Smith · WR

CFBD athlete 4950550

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Joshua Porter · WR

CFBD athlete 5146576

puntReturns · AVG: 9.4
puntReturns · LONG: 27
puntReturns · NO: 7
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 66
receiving · LONG: 38
receiving · REC: 23
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 274
receiving · YPR: 11.9

Kade Caton · TE

CFBD athlete 5156110

kickReturns · AVG: 1.0
kickReturns · LONG: 1
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 1
receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 20
receiving · YPR: 20.0

Kenny Odom · WR

CFBD athlete 5083068

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Levi Smiley · DE

CFBD athlete 5191042

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 8

Luke Clyburn · TE

CFBD athlete 5300511

receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 8
receiving · YPR: 8.0

Luke Goater · P

CFBD athlete 5257210

punting · In 20: 14
punting · LONG: 59
punting · NO: 29
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 1301
punting · YPP: 44.9

Luke Kromenhoek · QB

CFBD athlete 5079542

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 14
passing · COMPLETIONS: 9
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.643
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 60
passing · YPA: 4.3
rushing · CAR: 27
rushing · LONG: 42
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 122
rushing · YPC: 4.5

Major Dillard · DT

CFBD athlete 5301389

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 10

Malcolm Ziglar · S

CFBD athlete 5219163

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Marcus Williams · DT

CFBD athlete 5257036

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 5

Marshon Oxley · LB

CFBD athlete 4878111

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Michael Harris · LB

CFBD athlete 4870724

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

Michael Van Buren Jr. · QB

CFBD athlete 5079620

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 181
passing · COMPLETIONS: 116
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.641
passing · TD: 6
passing · YDS: 1273
passing · YPA: 7.0
rushing · CAR: 52
rushing · LONG: 30
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 100
rushing · YPC: 1.9

Michael Williams II · DE

CFBD athlete 5091781

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 6
defensive · SACKS: 4.0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6.5
defensive · TOT: 24

Mudia Reuben · WR

CFBD athlete 4826505

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 121
receiving · YPR: 13.4

Nico Gramatica · PK

CFBD athlete 5149075

kicking · FGA: 16
kicking · FGM: 13
kicking · LONG: 53
kicking · PCT: 0.813
kicking · PTS: 64
kicking · XPA: 25
kicking · XPM: 25

Peter Ramil · DE

CFBD athlete 5290668

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Richard Scott III · DT

CFBD athlete 5296028

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Rodney Hill · LB

CFBD athlete 5079509

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 20

Ryan Jenkins · DT

CFBD athlete 5146883

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 19
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Sam Robinson · LB

CFBD athlete 5125467

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 32

Shamar Meikle · LB

CFBD athlete 5146905

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 6

Tavin Ward · S

CFBD athlete 4899343

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 39
interceptions · AVG: 20.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 20

Tayvion Beasley · DB

CFBD athlete 4685258

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 21
interceptions · AVG: 5.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 5

Teddy Foster · CB

CFBD athlete 5147170

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 19

Terrell Jones · DE

CFBD athlete 4901423

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 6

Terry Simmons · DL

CFBD athlete 4918440

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Thomas Shrader · OL

CFBD athlete 4430711

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tray Kinkle · RB

CFBD athlete 5296023

rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 35
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 67
rushing · YPC: 13.4

Victor Zidor · S

CFBD athlete 5296025

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Wyatt Sullivan · TE

CFBD athlete 4869390

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 85
receiving · YPR: 8.5

Zavier Hamilton · LB

CFBD athlete 5079491

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 40
kickReturns · AVG: 1.0
kickReturns · LONG: 1
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 1

East Carolina

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-22 (reported) · 2026-10-15 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T00:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Mitch Griffis QB 3 games	37.5% 21 / 56 plays	41.7% 5 / 12 plays
TJ Engleman RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	43.3% 26 / 60 plays
Emory Williams QB 2 games	35.7% 15 / 42 plays	38.5% 5 / 13 plays
Ashton Gray RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	37.5% 12 / 32 plays
Michael Allen RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	25.0% 1 / 4 plays
Nathaniel Joseph WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 2 / 2 plays
Jason Dickerson WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 65 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Adam Cole · DB

CFBD athlete 5160076

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Alex Moye · DB

CFBD athlete 5226091

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Amare Mack · DB

CFBD athlete 5291779

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Angelo Ross · DB

CFBD athlete 5213304

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 16
interceptions · AVG: 6.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 12

Ashton Gray · RB

CFBD athlete 5194306

receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 52
receiving · YPR: 7.4
rushing · CAR: 70
rushing · LONG: 45
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 279
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Ashton Levells-Mitchell · DB

CFBD athlete 4891875

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 24
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Ayden Duncanson · DB

CFBD athlete 4870687

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 2
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10
interceptions · AVG: 43.5
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 2
interceptions · YDS: 87

Blake Shirley · LS

CFBD athlete 5084535

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Brock Spalding · WR

CFBD athlete 4869340

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 9.0

Cade Law · LB

CFBD athlete 5161633

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 19

Christian Peterson · DB

CFBD athlete 5079623

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 11

Crews Law · LB

CFBD athlete 5132627

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.0
defensive · TOT: 48

DJ Johnson Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5160078

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 56

David Coleman Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5291691

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Dawson Quarterman · WR

CFBD athlete 5159027

receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 25
receiving · YPR: 6.3

DeJuan Lacy · RB

CFBD athlete 5293902

receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: -6
receiving · YPR: -3.0
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 13
rushing · YPC: 3.3

DeMarius Hines · DB

CFBD athlete 5148791

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Dillon Lorick · WR

CFBD athlete 5148837

receiving · LONG: 52
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 87
receiving · YPR: 29.0

Dominick Moody · DL

CFBD athlete 5215550

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 3

Durante Speer · DB

CFBD athlete 5215177

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Elliot Huether · P

CFBD athlete 5155298

punting · In 20: 3
punting · LONG: 64
punting · NO: 10
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 482
punting · YPP: 48.2

Emory Williams · QB

CFBD athlete 5075800

fumbles · FUM: 4
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 117
passing · COMPLETIONS: 73
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.624
passing · TD: 7
passing · YDS: 716
passing · YPA: 6.1
rushing · CAR: 32
rushing · LONG: 25
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 73
rushing · YPC: 2.3

Ethan Wilson · DL

CFBD athlete 5327621

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Evan Powell · DL

CFBD athlete 5293907

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 7

Everett Scott · PK

CFBD athlete 5226093

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ismael Smith Flores · TE

CFBD athlete 5125012

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 86
receiving · YPR: 7.2
rushing · CAR: 0
rushing · LONG: 4
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 4
rushing · YPC: 0

J.D. Lampley · DL

CFBD athlete 4869657

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 11

Ja'Keith Hamilton · WR

CFBD athlete 5153369

receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 56
receiving · YPR: 11.2

Jackson Barker · LB

CFBD athlete 5095851

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 24

Jacob Holland · TE

CFBD athlete 5382341

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jasiyah Robinson · DL

CFBD athlete 4611524

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 14

Jason Dickerson · WR

CFBD athlete 5226083

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 25
passing · YPA: 25.0
receiving · LONG: 61
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 166
receiving · YPR: 11.9
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Javon Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 5148773

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jaylen Bowden · DB

CFBD athlete 5159190

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jeremiah Melvin · WR

CFBD athlete 5145453

receiving · LONG: 38
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 188
receiving · YPR: 14.5

Jonathan Akins · DB

CFBD athlete 5077368

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Jordan Miles · LB

CFBD athlete 5293904

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Josh Benton · DB

CFBD athlete 5095852

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Julien Davis · LB

CFBD athlete 5078009

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 32
interceptions · AVG: 5.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 5

Kamaurri McKinley · DB

CFBD athlete 5119661

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 38

Kanen Hamlett · TE

CFBD athlete 4911906

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 30
receiving · YPR: 10.0

Kelton Smith · DL

CFBD athlete 5290949

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 2

Kendrick DuJour · DL

CFBD athlete 5095838

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.0
defensive · TOT: 17

Kevon Merrell · DB

CFBD athlete 5149451

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 43

Kieran Davis · DL

CFBD athlete 5078217

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 8.0
defensive · TOT: 23
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Kyler Pearson · WR

CFBD athlete 4430798

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 3.0
kickReturns · LONG: 3
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 3
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: -2
passing · YPA: -2.0
puntReturns · AVG: 2.3
puntReturns · LONG: 9
puntReturns · NO: 16
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 36
receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 13.0

LJ Porter · LB

CFBD athlete 5296201

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 5

Landon Sides · WR

CFBD athlete 5122006

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 19
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 232
receiving · YPR: 12.2

Michael Allen · RB

CFBD athlete 4685237

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 21.7
kickReturns · LONG: 26
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 65
receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 31
receiving · YPR: 3.4
rushing · CAR: 37
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 117
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Michael Beatty · RB

CFBD athlete 5261753

receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 5
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 11
rushing · YPC: 5.5

Miles Parker · DL

CFBD athlete 5226092

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Mitch Griffis · QB

CFBD athlete 4433829

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 126
passing · COMPLETIONS: 69
passing · INT: 5
passing · PCT: 0.548
passing · TD: 4
passing · YDS: 753
passing · YPA: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 39
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 118
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Myles Pollard · DB

CFBD athlete 4701937

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 18
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Nathaniel Joseph · WR

CFBD athlete 4870770

kickReturns · AVG: 38.0
kickReturns · LONG: 56
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 76
receiving · LONG: 41
receiving · REC: 33
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 303
receiving · YPR: 9.2
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 23
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 41
rushing · YPC: 10.3

Noah Perez · PK

CFBD athlete 5089443

kicking · FGA: 12
kicking · FGM: 10
kicking · LONG: 49
kicking · PCT: 0.833
kicking · PTS: 52
kicking · XPA: 22
kicking · XPM: 22
punting · In 20: 1
punting · LONG: 33
punting · NO: 1
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 33
punting · YPP: 33.0

Preston Carr · DL

CFBD athlete 5095853

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Raemon Mosby · DB

CFBD athlete 5109795

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Rion Roseborough · DL

CFBD athlete 5155819

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 10

Stephen Collier · TE

CFBD athlete 5196644

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

TJ Engleman · RB

CFBD athlete 5079419

receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 71
receiving · YPR: 7.9
rushing · CAR: 105
rushing · LONG: 88
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 689
rushing · YPC: 6.6

Tomas O'Halloran · P

CFBD athlete 5226085

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
punting · In 20: 10
punting · LONG: 60
punting · NO: 32
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 1492
punting · YPP: 46.6

Torin Brazell · DL

CFBD athlete 5196371

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 15

Tyler Johnson · WR

CFBD athlete 4869324

receiving · LONG: 68
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 144
receiving · YPR: 18.0

Zyeir Gamble · DB

CFBD athlete 5078101

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 25
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 38
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Zyon Ratchford · DL

CFBD athlete 5278573

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

East Carolina -2.5

DraftKings snapshot: East Carolina -2.5

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

East Carolina by 2.58

0.08 points toward East Carolina versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward East Carolina.

Fitted offset: +5.20
Net EPA rating difference: -1.42
Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to 2.58 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs 37f0b59e8e990f628019b0e67cda933e14d6de150169793cb6ad3dc70bc9291b · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 592bcb1efebe2b4f62538e3c5d8a46f46557aca6dbd14e26d34151afcf932630 · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: East Carolina · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	-2.5	-2.5
Model spread	-2.58	-2.58
Model gap	+0.08	+0.08

Negative spreads favor East Carolina; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 37f0b59e8e990f628019b0e67cda933e14d6de150169793cb6ad3dc70bc9291b. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +0.1 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

East Carolina win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 57%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: East Carolina -2.5
Stacked ensemble: 50%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward East Carolina.

home adjusted epa: +12.21 (path difference 0.22)
away adjusted epa: +8.01 (path difference 1.24)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +7.64 (path difference 5.79)
home adjusted passing epa: -7.59 (path difference 1.94)
home adjusted success allowed: +7.51 (path difference 0.56)
home adjusted success: -7.07 (path difference 2.26)
away adjusted epa allowed: -6.69 (path difference 3.76)
home adjusted epa allowed: -5.77 (path difference 0.12)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +5.77 (path difference 1.58)
home adjusted rushing epa: -5.10 (path difference 2.34)
home adjusted second level yards: +4.73 (path difference 2.33)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.66 (path difference 2.31)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +4.44 (path difference 2.29)
home elo: -4.06 (path difference 0.36)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +3.98 (path difference 2.08)
away adjusted passing down success: -3.48 (path difference 2.92)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +3.42 (path difference 0.46)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +3.27 (path difference 0.53)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: -3.17 (path difference 1.36)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +3.05 (path difference 1.33)
away elo: -2.93 (path difference 0.69)
away adjusted explosiveness: -2.04 (path difference 0.61)
away talent: -1.92 (path difference 0.72)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -1.91 (path difference 0.74)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.86 (path difference 0.04)
home talent: +1.77 (path difference 0.12)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.70 (path difference 0.64)
away adjusted standard down success: +1.55 (path difference 1.08)
home adjusted open field yards: -1.38 (path difference 0.45)
away adjusted success: -1.23 (path difference 0.22)
home adjusted explosiveness: +1.13 (path difference 0.24)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.13 (path difference 1.20)
home adjusted line yards: -1.03 (path difference 0.84)
week: -0.91 (path difference 0.81)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.86 (path difference 0.84)
away adjusted second level yards: +0.78 (path difference 0.45)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.55 (path difference 1.71)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.47 (path difference 1.52)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.39 (path difference 0.12)
home conference: -0.35 (path difference 0.02)
away adjusted rushing epa: -0.30 (path difference 0.06)
away adjusted success allowed: -0.21 (path difference 0.02)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.20 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted standard down success: -0.19 (path difference 0.38)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.16 (path difference 0.57)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.14 (path difference 0.42)
away conference: -0.14 (path difference 0.44)
home adjusted passing down success: +0.13 (path difference 1.84)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.11 (path difference 0.42)
home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.09 (path difference 1.60)
away adjusted line yards: +0.07 (path difference 0.45)
away adjusted passing epa: -0.07 (path difference 1.65)
away adjusted open field yards: -0.05 (path difference 3.00)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.04 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.02 (path difference 0.00)

Reconciles to 50.08 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 022d3f6e65302fe28b1cf14d9588c26173fde7307a63e1eed6f805eb96c7e1e9 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 6f1d1c40547cb681f3694c92c76dce4fb15d20cd473cbf549c7568dacc122a72 · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

South Florida

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 82 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
D.J. Crowther CFBD athlete 5085507 Week 6 vs UTSA: 20 attempts · 4.2 YPC · 45.0% success · 0.065 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Kent State: 9 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 55.6% success · -0.655 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UAB: 16 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 31.3% success · 0.081 raw PPA.	45	4.0	0	54.9%	119 / 4.8
Luke Kromenhoek CFBD athlete 5079542 Week 6 vs UTSA: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.956 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Kent State: 3 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.300 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UAB: 14 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 54.5% success · 0.405 raw PPA.	18	5.1	3	22.0%	24 / 4.3
Jason Collins Jr. CFBD athlete 5154559 Week 6 vs UTSA: 4 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.093 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Kent State: 6 attempts · 6.7 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.444 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UAB: 5 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 20.0% success · 0.139 raw PPA.	15	4.8	0	18.3%	52 / 4.7
Cameron Seldon CFBD athlete 4870941 Week 9 vs UAB: 2 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.251 raw PPA.	2	3.0	0	2.4%	5 / 3.8
Alvon Isaac CFBD athlete 5193089 Week 9 vs UAB: 2 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.239 raw PPA.	2	2.5	0	2.4%	5 / 4.8

East Carolina

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 128 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
TJ Engleman CFBD athlete 5079419 Week 7 vs UAB: 26 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 42.3% success · 0.144 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Memphis: 18 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 38.9% success · 0.175 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Temple: 16 attempts · 6.7 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.230 raw PPA.	60	5.0	0	46.9%	105 / 6.6
Ashton Gray CFBD athlete 5194306 Week 7 vs UAB: 9 attempts · 2.9 YPC · 11.1% success · -0.365 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Memphis: 9 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.013 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Temple: 14 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 57.1% success · -0.073 raw PPA.	32	3.1	0	25.0%	68 / 4.0
Emory Williams CFBD athlete 5075800 Week 7 vs UAB: 11 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.420 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Memphis: 4 attempts · 4.8 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.434 raw PPA.	15	4.1	2	11.7%	31 / 2.4
Mitch Griffis CFBD athlete 4433829 Week 7 vs UAB: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.530 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Memphis: 5 attempts · 0.8 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.069 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Temple: 8 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.299 raw PPA.	14	2.6	2	10.9%	37 / 2.8
Michael Allen CFBD athlete 4685237 Week 7 vs UAB: 1 attempts · 13.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -2.825 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Temple: 3 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.121 raw PPA.	4	5.3	0	3.1%	38 / 3.2

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	East CarolinaOffense	South FloridaDefense	South FloridaOffense	East CarolinaDefense
PPA/play	+0.03 18th	+0.00 77th	+0.12 47th	-0.00 78th
Success rate	38.5% 13th	39.6% 61st	45.8% 72nd	36.7% 82nd
Explosiveness	1.18 26th	1.04 99th	1.07 3rd	1.24 47th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.03 30th	-0.02 66th	+0.07 42nd	-0.12 90th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.02 9th	+0.04 83rd	+0.23 50th	+0.20 47th
Havoc allowed / created	17.8% 12th	17.5% 72nd	12.4% 86th	19.5% 90th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:46 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:46 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Noah Perez · East Carolina · PAAR 1.41 · 12 attempts
Nico Gramatica · South Florida · PAAR 3.20 · 16 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

East Carolina spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +1.5 · Snapshot spread: -2.5

First locally observed: +1.5 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 45.5 · Snapshot total: 39.5

Total · First locally observed: 45.5 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -135 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -108 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +114 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: -112 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: -2 · Snapshot spread: -2.5

First locally observed: -2 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 40 · Snapshot total: 39.5

Total · First locally observed: 40 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -125 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -125 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +105 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +105 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

East Carolina

Net adjusted EPA/play -0.0 · 9 rated weeks · American Athletic

39th FBS percentile

South Florida

Net adjusted EPA/play -0.0 · 9 rated weeks · American Athletic

47th FBS percentile

Travel

South Florida travels 607 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change.

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

South Florida leads 9–4 in 13 meetings since 2002.

2022 · NEast Carolina at South Florida48–28 · East Carolina
2021South Florida at East Carolina14–29 · East Carolina
2020East Carolina at South Florida44–24 · East Carolina
2019South Florida at East Carolina45–20 · South Florida
2018East Carolina at South Florida13–20 · South Florida
2017South Florida at East Carolina61–31 · South Florida

CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.