Week 10 · 2026
Rice at North Texas
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Rice
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T21:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Jacurri Brown QB 2 games | 16.7% 3 / 18 plays | 33.3% 9 / 27 plays |
| Tyvonn Byars RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 44.4% 20 / 45 plays |
| Gael Ochoa QB 3 games | 40.0% 6 / 15 plays | 41.2% 7 / 17 plays |
| DAndre Hardeman Jr. RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 45.5% 10 / 22 plays |
| Max Mosey WR 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 6 / 12 plays |
| Colin Leahey WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 57.1% 4 / 7 plays |
| Jordan Clark WR 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 3 / 6 plays |
| Carson Morgan RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 5 plays |
Traditional season production · 55 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
AJ Brown · S
CFBD athlete 5082374
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 35
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.0
- defensive · TOT
- 60
Ahran Ogbor · S
CFBD athlete 5207847
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Aquantis Clemmons · DL
CFBD athlete 5151285
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 5
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 25
Austin Harnetiaux · LB
CFBD athlete 5082673
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 25
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 53
Bailey Fletcher · S
CFBD athlete 5149494
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Barry Jackson Jr. · WR
CFBD athlete 4923288
- receiving · LONG
- 30
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 102
- receiving · YPR
- 14.6
Beau Barton · LB
CFBD athlete 5091818
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Ben Grice · WR
CFBD athlete 5144288
- receiving · LONG
- 40
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 64
- receiving · YPR
- 10.7
- rushing · CAR
- 11
- rushing · LONG
- 88
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 120
- rushing · YPC
- 10.9
Braden Bays · DL
CFBD athlete 5269153
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7
- defensive · TOT
- 22
Braylen Walker · WR
CFBD athlete 4869581
- receiving · LONG
- 71
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 111
- receiving · YPR
- 18.5
Brock Reddic · DL
CFBD athlete 5226628
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Caden Vermaas · DL
CFBD athlete 5142706
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 8
- kickReturns · AVG
- 14.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 20
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 28
Carson Morgan · RB
CFBD athlete 5151063
- rushing · CAR
- 12
- rushing · LONG
- 12
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 60
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
Charlie Durkin · P
CFBD athlete 4917266
- punting · In 20
- 5
- punting · LONG
- 58
- punting · NO
- 29
- punting · TB
- 2
- punting · YDS
- 1313
- punting · YPP
- 45.3
Chibby Nwajuaku · DL
CFBD athlete 4834814
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Chris Bruce · WR
CFBD athlete 5151280
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 19
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 19
- receiving · YPR
- 19.0
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 1
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 1
- rushing · YPC
- 1.0
Christopher Clark-Jolivet · DL
CFBD athlete 5151288
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Colin Leahey · WR
CFBD athlete 5265453
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 19
- rushing · YPC
- 2.7
Cooper King · LB
CFBD athlete 5151279
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 29
DAndre Hardeman Jr. · RB
CFBD athlete 5207930
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- rushing · CAR
- 74
- rushing · LONG
- 16
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 257
- rushing · YPC
- 3.5
Daveon Hook · S
CFBD athlete 4917087
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 13
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Davis Lane · WR
CFBD athlete 4868249
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 11
- receiving · YPR
- 5.5
- rushing · CAR
- 5
- rushing · LONG
- 9
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 13
- rushing · YPC
- 2.6
Dillan Botts · DL
CFBD athlete 5296003
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Dylan Stephens · S
CFBD athlete 5384734
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Enock Gota · PK
CFBD athlete 5082275
- kicking · FGA
- 6
- kicking · FGM
- 2
- kicking · LONG
- 26
- kicking · PCT
- 0.333
- kicking · PTS
- 17
- kicking · XPA
- 11
- kicking · XPM
- 11
Gael Ochoa · QB
CFBD athlete 5145788
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 16
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 8
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.500
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 160
- passing · YPA
- 10.0
- rushing · CAR
- 25
- rushing · LONG
- 74
- rushing · TD
- 5
- rushing · YDS
- 278
- rushing · YPC
- 11.1
JD Singletary · DL
CFBD athlete 5384735
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jacurri Brown · QB
CFBD athlete 4685291
- fumbles · FUM
- 8
- fumbles · LOST
- 4
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 82
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 39
- passing · INT
- 2
- passing · PCT
- 0.476
- passing · TD
- 2
- passing · YDS
- 471
- passing · YPA
- 5.7
- rushing · CAR
- 118
- rushing · LONG
- 78
- rushing · TD
- 6
- rushing · YDS
- 668
- rushing · YPC
- 5.7
Jamir Benjamin · CB
CFBD athlete 5079325
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 17
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 39
Jayden Cupitt · LB
CFBD athlete 5269127
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Jerrick Harper · CB
CFBD athlete 5296000
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
- interceptions · AVG
- 34.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 34
Jo Chavez · DL
CFBD athlete 5296001
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 31
Jordan Clark · WR
CFBD athlete 5265445
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
- receiving · LONG
- 38
- receiving · REC
- 20
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 257
- receiving · YPR
- 12.9
- rushing · CAR
- 8
- rushing · LONG
- 16
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 38
- rushing · YPC
- 4.8
Joseph Mutombo · DL
CFBD athlete 5085343
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Justin Powell · RB
CFBD athlete 5384739
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 2
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 3
- rushing · YPC
- 1.5
Kaleb Blanton · LB
CFBD athlete 5141792
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Koa Akui · S
CFBD athlete 5102179
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 31
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 8
- defensive · TOT
- 44
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Kyren Condoll · CB
CFBD athlete 5147166
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 27
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Luca Akirtava · DL
CFBD athlete 5258437
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Matthew Aribisala · DL
CFBD athlete 4879520
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Max Mosey · WR
CFBD athlete 5087069
- kickReturns · AVG
- 13.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 25
- kickReturns · NO
- 6
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 81
- puntReturns · AVG
- 17.5
- puntReturns · LONG
- 25
- puntReturns · NO
- 2
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 35
- receiving · LONG
- 40
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 49
- receiving · YPR
- 16.3
- rushing · CAR
- 20
- rushing · LONG
- 41
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 163
- rushing · YPC
- 8.2
Michael Amey III · S
CFBD athlete 5218377
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Nate Bledsoe · OL
CFBD athlete 5091819
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Patrick Crayton Jr. · QB
CFBD athlete 5265447
- passing · ATT
- 2
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 2
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 29
- passing · YPA
- 14.5
- rushing · CAR
- 4
- rushing · LONG
- 31
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 45
- rushing · YPC
- 11.3
Payton Matthews · WR
CFBD athlete 5236325
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 25
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 41
- receiving · YPR
- 13.7
Quinton Jackson · RB
CFBD athlete 5082271
- kickReturns · AVG
- 23.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 23
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 23
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 6
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
- rushing · CAR
- 10
- rushing · LONG
- 12
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 61
- rushing · YPC
- 6.1
Robert Rooks · DL
CFBD athlete 5216906
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Seth Clarke · LB
CFBD athlete 5276942
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Stone Combs · LB
CFBD athlete 4912226
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4
- defensive · TOT
- 52
Tariq May · LB
CFBD athlete 5084041
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Tommy Bauchiero · PK
CFBD athlete 5296697
- kicking · FGA
- 5
- kicking · FGM
- 3
- kicking · LONG
- 45
- kicking · PCT
- 0.600
- kicking · PTS
- 19
- kicking · XPA
- 11
- kicking · XPM
- 10
Tyler Lavallier · DL
CFBD athlete 5300619
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Tyvonn Byars · RB
CFBD athlete 5207925
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- rushing · CAR
- 97
- rushing · LONG
- 44
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 465
- rushing · YPC
- 4.8
Will Swartz · TE
CFBD athlete 5258483
- kickReturns · AVG
- 3.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 4
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 6
Zach Cody · CB
CFBD athlete 5149939
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
North Texas
Window: 2026-10-29 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T21:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Tayven Jackson QB 3 games | 59.4% 60 / 101 plays | 28.6% 2 / 7 plays |
| Jahiem White RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 54.2% 32 / 59 plays |
| Brendon Haygood RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 41.7% 5 / 12 plays |
| Chaston Ditta QB 1 games | 33.3% 3 / 9 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Josiah Martin WR 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 2 / 4 plays |
| Chris Jimerson Jr. QB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 75.0% 3 / 4 plays |
| Colin Page RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 3 plays |
| Max Reese TE 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 2 plays |
Traditional season production · 59 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
AJ Brown · DL
CFBD athlete 5295996
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Aaron Alexander · LB
CFBD athlete 4869240
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 36
Adarion Nettles · RB
CFBD athlete 5334231
- kickReturns · AVG
- 14.3
- kickReturns · LONG
- 28
- kickReturns · NO
- 6
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 86
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 7
- receiving · YPR
- 7.0
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 9
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 23
- rushing · YPC
- 3.3
Anthony Benford II · CB
CFBD athlete 5295986
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Baron Tipton · WR
CFBD athlete 5149220
- receiving · LONG
- 75
- receiving · REC
- 14
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 208
- receiving · YPR
- 14.9
Brandon Jones · S
CFBD athlete 5300364
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 22
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4
- defensive · TOT
- 47
Brayden Knox · DL
CFBD athlete 5217698
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 20
Brec Long · TE
CFBD athlete 5295066
- receiving · LONG
- 26
- receiving · REC
- 11
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 108
- receiving · YPR
- 9.8
Brenden Reese · LB
CFBD athlete 5239553
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 30
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Brendon Haygood · RB
CFBD athlete 5238020
- receiving · LONG
- 3
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 3
- receiving · YPR
- 3.0
- rushing · CAR
- 41
- rushing · LONG
- 15
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 171
- rushing · YPC
- 4.2
Bryan Allen Jr. · S
CFBD athlete 4685241
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Bryce Garza · S
CFBD athlete 5264837
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 14
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
CJ Coombes · S
CFBD athlete 5178689
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 55
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 21.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 21
Cameren Jenkins · S
CFBD athlete 4923291
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Cedric Roberts · LB
CFBD athlete 5231325
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 24
Chantz Johnson · LB
CFBD athlete 4927787
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Chase Canada · CB
CFBD athlete 5218890
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Chaston Ditta · QB
CFBD athlete 5215310
- passing · ATT
- 19
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 14
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.737
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 159
- passing · YPA
- 8.4
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 7
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 5
- rushing · YPC
- 0.7
Chris Jimerson Jr. · QB
CFBD athlete 5175092
- passing · ATT
- 3
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 2
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.667
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 55
- passing · YPA
- 18.3
- rushing · CAR
- 15
- rushing · LONG
- 18
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 91
- rushing · YPC
- 6.1
Christian Lorenzo · DL
CFBD athlete 5084944
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Colin Page · RB
CFBD athlete 5081966
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 8
- rushing · YPC
- 2.7
Corri Milliner · WR
CFBD athlete 5125905
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 36
- receiving · REC
- 20
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 325
- receiving · YPR
- 16.3
Curlee Thomas · DL
CFBD athlete 4702822
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Dalton Carnes · WR
CFBD athlete 5103852
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 76.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 76
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 1
- puntReturns · YDS
- 76
- receiving · LONG
- 30
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 72
- receiving · YPR
- 18.0
David Onuoha · DL
CFBD athlete 5092439
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 32
Davion Rhodes · DL
CFBD athlete 4603750
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 4
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 6.5
- defensive · TOT
- 15
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Dominic De Freitas · PK
CFBD athlete 5257313
- kicking · FGA
- 14
- kicking · FGM
- 11
- kicking · LONG
- 48
- kicking · PCT
- 0.786
- kicking · PTS
- 78
- kicking · XPA
- 45
- kicking · XPM
- 45
Dylan Williams · DL
CFBD athlete 5383039
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Grayson O'Bara · WR
CFBD athlete 5085503
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 43
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 88
- receiving · YPR
- 17.6
Ian Ratliff · P
CFBD athlete 5150777
- punting · In 20
- 7
- punting · LONG
- 55
- punting · NO
- 18
- punting · TB
- 3
- punting · YDS
- 743
- punting · YPP
- 41.3
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 2
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 2
- rushing · YPC
- 2.0
Ja'Bree Bickham · CB
CFBD athlete 5295050
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
Jaden Allen · CB
CFBD athlete 5079292
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 20
- interceptions · AVG
- 34.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 34
Jaden Manning · LB
CFBD athlete 5220974
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Jahiem White · RB
CFBD athlete 4911971
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 2
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 32
- receiving · REC
- 29
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 277
- receiving · YPR
- 9.6
- rushing · CAR
- 143
- rushing · LONG
- 84
- rushing · TD
- 13
- rushing · YDS
- 1043
- rushing · YPC
- 7.3
Jason Cross Jr. · S
CFBD athlete 5147217
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 17
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.5
- defensive · TOT
- 30
Jerious Singletary · TE
CFBD athlete 5279681
- kickReturns · AVG
- 0.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 0
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 0
Josiah Martin · WR
CFBD athlete 5108225
- receiving · LONG
- 41
- receiving · REC
- 15
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 182
- receiving · YPR
- 12.1
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 11
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 29
- rushing · YPC
- 4.1
Justin Benton · DL
CFBD athlete 4870614
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 20
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Justin Stevenson · WR
CFBD athlete 5122082
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 53
- receiving · REC
- 50
- receiving · TD
- 8
- receiving · YDS
- 781
- receiving · YPR
- 15.6
Keenan Jackson · RB
CFBD athlete 5306635
- kickReturns · AVG
- 19.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 20
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 38
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 6
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 25
- rushing · YPC
- 3.6
Kenton Allen · LB
CFBD athlete 5295984
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Keon Johnson · OL
CFBD athlete 5150796
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Keshawn Davila · CB
CFBD athlete 5293670
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 12
- interceptions · AVG
- 15.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 15
Kyle Koch · WR
CFBD athlete 5194308
- receiving · LONG
- 39
- receiving · REC
- 28
- receiving · TD
- 6
- receiving · YDS
- 324
- receiving · YPR
- 11.6
Lathon Latiolais · WR
CFBD athlete 5269142
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 13.3
- puntReturns · LONG
- 58
- puntReturns · NO
- 7
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 93
Max Reese · TE
CFBD athlete 4827049
- receiving · LONG
- 41
- receiving · REC
- 24
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 335
- receiving · YPR
- 14.0
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 3
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 0
- rushing · YPC
- 0.0
Michael Taylor II · PK
CFBD athlete 5383041
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Nick Osho · RB
CFBD athlete 5227742
- rushing · CAR
- 11
- rushing · LONG
- 10
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 41
- rushing · YPC
- 3.7
Nolan Clark · DL
CFBD athlete 5084394
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Peyton Taylor · CB
CFBD athlete 5383036
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 17
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 27
- interceptions · AVG
- 1.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 1
Steven Curtis · DL
CFBD athlete 5165725
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 6
TJ Chukwurah · WR
CFBD athlete 5163636
- receiving · LONG
- 23
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 101
- receiving · YPR
- 12.6
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 5
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
Taye Seymore · S
CFBD athlete 5080479
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Tayven Jackson · QB
CFBD athlete 4801307
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 2
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 268
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 194
- passing · INT
- 5
- passing · PCT
- 0.724
- passing · TD
- 22
- passing · YDS
- 2568
- passing · YPA
- 9.6
- rushing · CAR
- 30
- rushing · LONG
- 28
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 76
- rushing · YPC
- 2.5
Terrell Washington · DL
CFBD athlete 5295994
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Tyson Wilson · S
CFBD athlete 5383035
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 10
- interceptions · AVG
- 16.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 16
Udoka Ezeani · DL
CFBD athlete 5085723
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Wesley Hudson · DL
CFBD athlete 5383048
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Zakye Barker · LB
CFBD athlete 4839483
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 60
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 2
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
North Texas -17.25
DraftKings snapshot: North Texas -17.5
Book quote differs from the comparison line.
North Texas by 18.06
0.81 points toward North Texas versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward North Texas.
- Net EPA rating difference: +14.06
- Fitted offset: +5.20
- Fitted home field: -1.20
Reconciles to 18.06 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs abf3b9e4c1e23a4771b21e30a13585e4f3aeff463e740f7d8a8fdbe5b2b8fe38 · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast cb88506418172fc667f544337ac03326230ed6fd5def83bca48bced924cc3f16 · through week 9.
What changed?
7 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -17.25 | -17.25 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | -18.06 | -18.06 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +0.81 | +0.81 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor North Texas; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
- Odds source SHA-256
- 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
- Odds source SHA-256
- d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: abf3b9e4c1e23a4771b21e30a13585e4f3aeff463e740f7d8a8fdbe5b2b8fe38. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +0.8 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
North Texas win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 88%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: North Texas -17
- Stacked ensemble
- 86%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward North Texas.
- away elo: +14.78 (path difference 21.99)
- home elo: +6.53 (path difference 5.39)
- home adjusted passing epa: +5.62 (path difference 6.37)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +5.26 (path difference 10.09)
- home adjusted success: +5.13 (path difference 5.66)
- away adjusted epa: +3.95 (path difference 6.30)
- away adjusted passing down success: -2.73 (path difference 2.94)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +2.67 (path difference 1.19)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +2.58 (path difference 2.46)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.94 (path difference 2.01)
- away adjusted success allowed: +1.57 (path difference 1.56)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -1.55 (path difference 2.88)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.50 (path difference 1.68)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -1.38 (path difference 1.75)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.17 (path difference 0.72)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: -1.08 (path difference 0.97)
- home adjusted second level yards: +1.04 (path difference 0.90)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +0.91 (path difference 1.11)
- home talent: +0.90 (path difference 0.22)
- away adjusted standard down success: +0.88 (path difference 0.16)
- week: -0.87 (path difference 0.90)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.77 (path difference 1.44)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.71 (path difference 0.98)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.70 (path difference 0.02)
- home adjusted standard down success: +0.70 (path difference 2.42)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +0.65 (path difference 0.79)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.64 (path difference 0.32)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.57 (path difference 0.24)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.56 (path difference 0.24)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.54 (path difference 0.87)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.49 (path difference 0.22)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.47 (path difference 1.09)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.47 (path difference 0.15)
- away adjusted success: -0.42 (path difference 0.42)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -0.40 (path difference 2.37)
- home adjusted success allowed: -0.37 (path difference 0.50)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.37 (path difference 0.29)
- home adjusted epa: -0.34 (path difference 2.28)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.33 (path difference 0.52)
- home adjusted line yards: -0.33 (path difference 0.59)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.31 (path difference 0.42)
- home adjusted open field yards: +0.30 (path difference 1.08)
- away conference: +0.24 (path difference 0.31)
- away adjusted line yards: -0.22 (path difference 0.80)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.21 (path difference 0.30)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.20 (path difference 0.62)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.20 (path difference 0.87)
- home conference: -0.20 (path difference 0.29)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.14 (path difference 0.32)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.13 (path difference 1.19)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.08 (path difference 0.12)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.06 (path difference 0.62)
- home adjusted passing down success: +0.05 (path difference 0.06)
- away adjusted epa allowed: +0.03 (path difference 0.16)
- away talent: +0.02 (path difference 0.29)
Reconciles to 85.71 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 0ed6e67f773ed9228470038786924ec4fc0b78e19e39e7b10b16f70cbc61af36 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 8faf9359ba5a7240b46f9ac292c85134d1a551da48b3312afefb6acf330f8ae3 · through week 9.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.
Rice
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 155 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyvonn ByarsCFBD athlete 5207925 Week 6 vs East Carolina: 14 attempts · 7.9 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.371 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Tulsa: 15 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.034 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Florida Atlantic: 16 attempts · 5.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.201 raw PPA. | 45 | 5.7 | 0 | 29.0% | 95 / 4.8 |
Jacurri BrownCFBD athlete 4685291 Week 6 vs East Carolina: 19 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 17.6% success · -0.194 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Tulsa: 11 attempts · 14.0 YPC · 60.0% success · 1.268 raw PPA. | 30 | 5.8 | 3 | 19.4% | 116 / 5.7 |
DAndre Hardeman Jr.CFBD athlete 5207930 Week 7 vs Tulsa: 12 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 41.7% success · -0.033 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Florida Atlantic: 10 attempts · 1.9 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.618 raw PPA. | 22 | 2.6 | 0 | 14.2% | 74 / 3.5 |
Gael OchoaCFBD athlete 5145788 Week 6 vs East Carolina: 2 attempts · -3.0 YPC · 100.0% success · -4.674 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Tulsa: 7 attempts · -1.3 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.581 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Florida Atlantic: 12 attempts · 21.6 YPC · 54.5% success · 1.744 raw PPA. | 21 | 11.6 | 4 | 13.5% | 25 / 11.1 |
Max MoseyCFBD athlete 5087069 Week 6 vs East Carolina: 3 attempts · 5.3 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.047 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Tulsa: 2 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 1.220 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Florida Atlantic: 7 attempts · 12.0 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.823 raw PPA. | 12 | 8.8 | 0 | 7.7% | 19 / 8.3 |
North Texas
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 94 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jahiem WhiteCFBD athlete 4911971 Week 6 vs Charlotte: 12 attempts · 8.8 YPC · 58.3% success · 0.693 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Navy: 20 attempts · 8.7 YPC · 70.0% success · 0.698 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Florida Atlantic: 27 attempts · 6.9 YPC · 40.7% success · 0.422 raw PPA. | 59 | 7.9 | 0 | 62.8% | 143 / 7.3 |
Brendon HaygoodCFBD athlete 5238020 Week 6 vs Charlotte: 7 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.077 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Navy: 4 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.185 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Florida Atlantic: 1 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.247 raw PPA. | 12 | 4.8 | 0 | 12.8% | 40 / 4.3 |
Tayven JacksonCFBD athlete 4801307 Week 6 vs Charlotte: 1 attempts · 8.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.278 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Navy: 2 attempts · -4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.833 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Florida Atlantic: 5 attempts · 8.2 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.005 raw PPA. | 8 | 5.1 | 1 | 8.5% | 30 / 2.5 |
Josiah MartinCFBD athlete 5108225 Week 6 vs Charlotte: 2 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.016 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Navy: 1 attempts · -5.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.718 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Florida Atlantic: 1 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.075 raw PPA. | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 4.3% | 7 / 4.1 |
Chris Jimerson Jr.CFBD athlete 5175092 Week 6 vs Charlotte: 4 attempts · 8.5 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.065 raw PPA. | 4 | 8.5 | 0 | 4.3% | 15 / 6.1 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | North TexasOffense | RiceDefense | RiceOffense | North TexasDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.32 97th | +0.14 24th | +0.03 20th | +0.08 47th |
| Success rate | 49.2% 88th | 42.5% 34th | 40.8% 34th | 41.8% 41st |
| Explosiveness | 1.35 92nd | 1.30 20th | 1.21 42nd | 1.29 23rd |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.27 96th | +0.04 49th | +0.08 50th | +0.02 53rd |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.45 91st | +0.36 12th | -0.09 1st | +0.23 36th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 10.1% 96th | 16.6% 64th | 15.6% 39th | 15.9% 53rd |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:28 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:28 AM CST
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.
- Enock Gota · Rice · PAAR -5.99 · 6 attempts
- Dominic De Freitas · North Texas · PAAR 2.23 · 14 attempts
- Tommy Bauchiero · Rice · PAAR -0.15 · 5 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
North Texas spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: -16.5 · Snapshot spread: -17.5
First locally observed: -16.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 64.5 · Snapshot total: 64.5
Total · First locally observed: 64.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -900 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -900 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +600 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +600 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: -17 · Snapshot spread: -17
First locally observed: -17 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 64 · Snapshot total: 64.5
Total · First locally observed: 64 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -900 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -900 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +600 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +600 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
North Texas
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 9 rated weeks · American Athletic
Rice
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 8 rated weeks · American Athletic
Travel
Rice travels 262 miles (shorter than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change · up 628 ft in elevation.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
North Texas leads 9–5 in 14 meetings since 1988.
- 2025North Texas at Rice56–24 · North Texas
- 2022Rice at North Texas17–21 · North Texas
- 2021North Texas at Rice30–24 · North Texas
- 2020Rice at North Texas17–27 · North Texas
- 2019North Texas at Rice14–20 · Rice
- 2018Rice at North Texas17–41 · North Texas
CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.