Week 10 · 2026

Air Force at Army

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Air Force

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T00:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Owen Allen RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	44.9% 22 / 49 plays
Evan Medders QB 2 games	42.9% 3 / 7 plays	62.2% 23 / 37 plays
Kemper Hodges QB 2 games	0.0% 0 / 1 plays	59.5% 22 / 37 plays
Gage LaDue FB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	69.2% 18 / 26 plays
Rocco Conti RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	47.6% 10 / 21 plays
Howard Fisher IV QB 2 games	16.7% 2 / 12 plays	55.6% 5 / 9 plays
Josh Johnson QB 1 games	25.0% 1 / 4 plays	0.0% 0 / 2 plays
Matt Long WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 3 / 3 plays

Traditional season production · 59 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Adam Hrynciw · WR

CFBD athlete 5223149

receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 89
receiving · YPR: 17.8

Alexander Perez · DB

CFBD athlete 5309671

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 24
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Andrew Tillett · DL

CFBD athlete 5223158

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 8
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Antonio Menard · DE

CFBD athlete 5295021

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Bennett Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 5295036

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Blake Fletcher · LB

CFBD athlete 5223130

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 38
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 80
interceptions · AVG: 45.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 90

Brody Bujnoch · LB

CFBD athlete 5223128

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Brody Whitson · LB

CFBD athlete 5232669

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Cade Paterson · DB

CFBD athlete 5209189

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 14

Carter Cremascoli · PK

CFBD athlete 5309674

kicking · FGA: 10
kicking · FGM: 9
kicking · LONG: 52
kicking · PCT: 0.900
kicking · PTS: 52
kicking · XPA: 26
kicking · XPM: 25

Chaz Barnett · DL

CFBD athlete 5295027

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 3

Connor Vasek · DL

CFBD athlete 5388392

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Dallas Daley · LB

CFBD athlete 5223127

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 46

Ehimen Oyamendan · DB

CFBD athlete 5307878

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Evan Medders · QB

CFBD athlete 5306440

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 14
passing · COMPLETIONS: 8
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.571
passing · TD: 2
passing · YDS: 92
passing · YPA: 6.6
rushing · CAR: 73
rushing · LONG: 41
rushing · TD: 6
rushing · YDS: 490
rushing · YPC: 6.7

Gage LaDue · FB

CFBD athlete 5295010

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 21
receiving · YPR: 21.0
rushing · CAR: 50
rushing · LONG: 25
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 263
rushing · YPC: 5.3

Grady Forsythe · DE

CFBD athlete 5295023

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Grant Wayne · WR

CFBD athlete 5223116

receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 21
receiving · YPR: 7.0

Harris Vinson · WR

CFBD athlete 5388362

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Howard Fisher IV · QB

CFBD athlete 5449066

passing · ATT: 9
passing · COMPLETIONS: 3
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.333
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 36
passing · YPA: 4.0
rushing · CAR: 15
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 50
rushing · YPC: 3.3

Isaac Hubert · LB

CFBD athlete 5223124

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 15

Jake Kepler · LB

CFBD athlete 5295020

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Jalen Rashad Turner · RB

CFBD athlete 5223123

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 9
rushing · YPC: 9.0

Jaxon Paulsrud · DB

CFBD athlete 5454594

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jayden Oquendo · DL

CFBD athlete 5223139

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12

Jaylin Reese · LB

CFBD athlete 5238872

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 25

Jerome Drain · DB

CFBD athlete 5388354

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jonah Bowman · LB

CFBD athlete 5240138

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jonah Dawson · WR

CFBD athlete 5238876

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 39
receiving · YPR: 13.0

Jordan Elie-Stuart · DB

CFBD athlete 5306442

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Joseph Kramlich · DB

CFBD athlete 5388356

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Josh Johnson · QB

CFBD athlete 5223108

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 4
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 20
passing · YPA: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -3
rushing · YPC: -1.5

Keegan Sack · WR

CFBD athlete 5388359

rushing · CAR: 8
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 51
rushing · YPC: 6.4

Kemper Hodges · QB

CFBD athlete 5223112

passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 71
rushing · LONG: 62
rushing · TD: 6
rushing · YDS: 401
rushing · YPC: 5.6

Korey Johnson · DB

CFBD athlete 5232660

defensive · PD: 6
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 29
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Liam Szarka · QB

CFBD athlete 5238868

passing · ATT: 38
passing · COMPLETIONS: 19
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 296
passing · YPA: 7.8
rushing · CAR: 92
rushing · LONG: 32
rushing · TD: 7
rushing · YDS: 391
rushing · YPC: 4.3

Luke Fisher · LB

CFBD athlete 5223132

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Luke Rauh · FB

CFBD athlete 5295015

rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 19
rushing · YPC: 9.5

Mason Hayes · WR

CFBD athlete 5295013

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 29
passing · YPA: 29.0
receiving · LONG: 1
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 1
receiving · YPR: 1.0
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 28
rushing · YPC: 9.3

Mason Lowe · WR

CFBD athlete 5295012

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 7
rushing · YPC: 7.0

Matt Long · WR

CFBD athlete 5238869

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
kickReturns · AVG: 19.5
kickReturns · LONG: 21
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 39
puntReturns · AVG: 0.0
puntReturns · LONG: 0
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 110
receiving · YPR: 15.7
rushing · CAR: 18
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 138
rushing · YPC: 7.7

Max Mustell · DB

CFBD athlete 5222795

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 33
interceptions · AVG: 26.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 26

Mikey Inweh · DB

CFBD athlete 5449000

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Mikhail Seiken · DB

CFBD athlete 5295003

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Muhammad Alcine · DL

CFBD athlete 5388391

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4

Nick Beckwith · DB

CFBD athlete 5237178

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Noah Daniels · DL

CFBD athlete 5388394

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Omari Elias · FB

CFBD athlete 5295019

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 11
rushing · YPC: 2.8

Oswaldo Morales · RB

CFBD athlete 5388370

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 7
rushing · YPC: 7.0

Owen Allen · RB

CFBD athlete 5223119

rushing · CAR: 106
rushing · LONG: 33
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 446
rushing · YPC: 4.2

Owen Chambers · WR

CFBD athlete 5223117

rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 20
rushing · YPC: 10.0

Price Davis · FB

CFBD athlete 5388364

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Rocco Conti · RB

CFBD athlete 5223131

receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 23
receiving · YPR: 7.7
rushing · CAR: 62
rushing · LONG: 50
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 394
rushing · YPC: 6.4

Roger Jones Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5295004

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 22

Simon Kibbee · TE

CFBD athlete 5223147

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 34
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 135
receiving · YPR: 16.9

Sylas Maiava-Alaimalo · WR

CFBD athlete 5309672

receiving · LONG: 26
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 34
receiving · YPR: 17.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 4
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 2.5

Thomas Young · DB

CFBD athlete 5448999

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 6
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Vinnie Canosa · LB

CFBD athlete 5250954

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Will Duncan · P

CFBD athlete 5238879

punting · In 20: 8
punting · LONG: 68
punting · NO: 18
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 861
punting · YPP: 47.8

Army

Window: 2026-11-01 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T00:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Cale Hellums QB 3 games	39.1% 9 / 23 plays	51.5% 34 / 66 plays
Godspower Nwawuihe RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 21 / 42 plays
Samari Howard WR 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	40.0% 6 / 15 plays
Jake Rendina RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	69.2% 9 / 13 plays
Bryson Luter QB 3 games	0.0% 0 / 2 plays	62.5% 5 / 8 plays
Carson Smith RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	14.3% 1 / 7 plays
Zach Mundell WR 2 games	50.0% 1 / 2 plays	100.0% 2 / 2 plays
Stroman Bridges WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 2 plays

Traditional season production · 72 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aden Self · WR

CFBD athlete 5219405

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Brady Mott · WR

CFBD athlete 5150328

rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -2
rushing · YPC: -1.0

Bradyn Anderson · WR

CFBD athlete 5219436

receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 163
receiving · YPR: 16.3
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 30
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 49
rushing · YPC: 16.3

Brennan Fisher · RB

CFBD athlete 5219426

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Brian Barton · S

CFBD athlete 5293696

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Bryson Banks · LB

CFBD athlete 5293710

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Bryson Hosea · PK

CFBD athlete 5219463

kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 2
kicking · XPA: 2
kicking · XPM: 2

Bryson Luter · QB

CFBD athlete 5293684

passing · ATT: 4
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 12
passing · YPA: 3.0
rushing · CAR: 14
rushing · LONG: 69
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 177
rushing · YPC: 12.6

Cael Newton · DL

CFBD athlete 5219438

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 2

Cale Hellums · QB

CFBD athlete 5150297

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 76
passing · COMPLETIONS: 43
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.566
passing · TD: 4
passing · YDS: 462
passing · YPA: 6.1
rushing · CAR: 172
rushing · LONG: 58
rushing · TD: 17
rushing · YDS: 874
rushing · YPC: 5.1

Caleb Williams · S

CFBD athlete 5219412

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 24
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Cameron Binkowski · LB

CFBD athlete 5390371

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Campbell Sager · DL

CFBD athlete 5219435

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Carson Smith · RB

CFBD athlete 5150326

receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 20
receiving · YPR: 20.0
rushing · CAR: 40
rushing · LONG: 14
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 169
rushing · YPC: 4.2

Christian Winston · LB

CFBD athlete 5390361

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Christian Yousefzadeh · LB

CFBD athlete 5150317

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Christopher Williams · S

CFBD athlete 5150319

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 14

Cole Searight · DB

CFBD athlete 5219409

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Daniel Ogordi · DB

CFBD athlete 5219429

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

David Clerk · WR

CFBD athlete 5150312

rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 18
rushing · YPC: 6.0

David Thom-Rogers · S

CFBD athlete 5293687

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Dawson Jones · PK

CFBD athlete 5219470

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
kicking · FGA: 9
kicking · FGM: 7
kicking · LONG: 51
kicking · PCT: 0.778
kicking · PTS: 51
kicking · XPA: 30
kicking · XPM: 30

Deion Miller · LB

CFBD athlete 5296924

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 26

Demani Stewart · RB

CFBD athlete 5293701

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 16
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Devan Moss · CB

CFBD athlete 5219422

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Dillon Stowers · DL

CFBD athlete 5150369

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 29

Donovan Poe · DL

CFBD athlete 5150375

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Elijah Walton · LB

CFBD athlete 5219421

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 25
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 54
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Ethan Bradshaw · S

CFBD athlete 5390369

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ethan Washington · QB

CFBD athlete 5219408

passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 13
passing · YPA: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 14
rushing · YPC: 4.7

Godspower Nwawuihe · RB

CFBD athlete 5293685

receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 24
receiving · YPR: 12.0
rushing · CAR: 79
rushing · LONG: 66
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 455
rushing · YPC: 5.8

Grayson Baker · DL

CFBD athlete 5219467

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Henry Hulbert · S

CFBD athlete 5390367

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jack Bousum · DL

CFBD athlete 5150374

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Jackson Weingart · LB

CFBD athlete 5293711

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Jake Rendina · RB

CFBD athlete 5150329

rushing · CAR: 34
rushing · LONG: 61
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 193
rushing · YPC: 5.7

James Wagenseller · P

CFBD athlete 5150302

punting · In 20: 10
punting · LONG: 74
punting · NO: 26
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 1225
punting · YPP: 47.1
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 9
rushing · YPC: 9.0

Jaquavious Moss · LB

CFBD athlete 5293691

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Jared Anthony · LB

CFBD athlete 5390391

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Javon Smith · DL

CFBD athlete 5219469

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jaxon Hammond · CB

CFBD athlete 4923279

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Jaydan Mayes · CB

CFBD athlete 5082128

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 27
kickReturns · AVG: 21.0
kickReturns · LONG: 28
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 42

Jaylen Jones · S

CFBD athlete 5293686

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Josh Milhollin · WR

CFBD athlete 5390352

puntReturns · AVG: 15.5
puntReturns · LONG: 26
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 31

Julian Porter · CB

CFBD athlete 5293682

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 25
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

KP Pointer · WR

CFBD athlete 5150368

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kai Woolfolk · LB

CFBD athlete 5293697

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Khaled Waliagha · LB

CFBD athlete 5219433

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Kody Harris-Miller · DL

CFBD athlete 5150364

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 16
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Larry Pickett Jr. · S

CFBD athlete 5219418

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Matt Gemma · DL

CFBD athlete 5219441

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Nick Buchys · DL

CFBD athlete 5219443

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 15
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Nick McGlynn · LB

CFBD athlete 5293708

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Noah Nixon · LB

CFBD athlete 5150339

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 22

Noah Prior · TE

CFBD athlete 5219471

kickReturns · AVG: 7.0
kickReturns · LONG: 10
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 14
receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 5
receiving · YPR: 5.0

Parker Poloskey · TE

CFBD athlete 5150333

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 28
receiving · YPR: 9.3

Phillip Goodrich · LB

CFBD athlete 5203608

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Rob Houston · CB

CFBD athlete 5219407

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Samari Howard · WR

CFBD athlete 5150316

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 18.0
kickReturns · LONG: 18
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 18
receiving · LONG: 33
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 131
receiving · YPR: 10.1
rushing · CAR: 44
rushing · LONG: 54
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 384
rushing · YPC: 8.7

Sean Donovan · DL

CFBD athlete 5219456

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Stephen Nnadozie · S

CFBD athlete 5150298

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 46

Stratton Fuller · WR

CFBD athlete 5211750

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 27
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 67
rushing · YPC: 16.8

Stroman Bridges · WR

CFBD athlete 5293698

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 16
receiving · YPR: 5.3
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 16
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Tex Brannan · TE

CFBD athlete 5219468

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Thomas Ghislandi · DL

CFBD athlete 5390385

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tim Kloska · RB

CFBD athlete 5219417

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
puntReturns · AVG: 16.0
puntReturns · LONG: 16
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 16

Tobi Olawole · WR

CFBD athlete 5150373

receiving · LONG: 37
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 52
receiving · YPR: 17.3

Tre Benson III · WR

CFBD athlete 5150311

puntReturns · AVG: 8.5
puntReturns · LONG: 27
puntReturns · NO: 8
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 68
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 28
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 36
rushing · YPC: 9.0

Victor Afolabi · LB

CFBD athlete 5293700

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Wanye Chukes · CB

CFBD athlete 5390356

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Zach Mundell · WR

CFBD athlete 5082118

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 3
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.667
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 82
passing · YPA: 27.3
receiving · LONG: 24
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 111
receiving · YPR: 11.1
rushing · CAR: 15
rushing · LONG: 68
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 267
rushing · YPC: 17.8

Zane Tallman · DB

CFBD athlete 5293689

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 28

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

Army -3

DraftKings snapshot: Army -3

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Army by 3.31

0.31 points toward Army versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Army.

Fitted offset: +5.20
Fitted home field: -1.20
Net EPA rating difference: -0.69

Reconciles to 3.31 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs ad13542fc746ce148b355180ece35c3cbefbac3b981318e5278dd3682c3767bb · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 3a6cc906d38f98f9e12cb872c15ad1ae0fd3d93b8451e514b98f2e340b359fb9 · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Army · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	-3.0	-3.0
Model spread	-3.31	-3.31
Model gap	+0.31	+0.31

Negative spreads favor Army; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: ad13542fc746ce148b355180ece35c3cbefbac3b981318e5278dd3682c3767bb. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +0.3 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

Army win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 58%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Army -3
Stacked ensemble: 58%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Army.

away adjusted success: -15.95 (path difference 3.85)
home adjusted success allowed: -9.74 (path difference 2.20)
home adjusted success: +9.63 (path difference 1.00)
away talent: +8.40 (path difference 1.02)
away adjusted rushing epa: +8.11 (path difference 1.77)
home adjusted rushing epa: +6.67 (path difference 1.41)
away elo: +5.71 (path difference 3.43)
away adjusted standard down success: +3.63 (path difference 0.53)
home adjusted second level yards: +3.43 (path difference 1.52)
home adjusted epa allowed: +3.37 (path difference 0.21)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -3.33 (path difference 0.31)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +3.25 (path difference 2.24)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +3.16 (path difference 1.04)
home adjusted passing epa: -3.16 (path difference 0.30)
home adjusted line yards: +3.10 (path difference 1.84)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: +3.07 (path difference 1.18)
away adjusted passing down success: -3.00 (path difference 2.81)
away adjusted success allowed: +2.54 (path difference 1.86)
home talent: -2.46 (path difference 0.96)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: -2.38 (path difference 0.28)
home adjusted epa: -2.26 (path difference 6.37)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: +2.17 (path difference 0.04)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +2.10 (path difference 0.09)
away adjusted explosiveness: -2.04 (path difference 0.55)
away adjusted epa: -2.03 (path difference 0.65)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.95 (path difference 0.30)
home adjusted standard down success: +1.85 (path difference 1.80)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.78 (path difference 0.74)
away adjusted line yards: -1.58 (path difference 2.47)
week: -1.51 (path difference 0.38)
home adjusted passing down success: +1.22 (path difference 0.60)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.16 (path difference 0.68)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -1.14 (path difference 1.43)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.06 (path difference 1.51)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.05 (path difference 1.97)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -1.02 (path difference 0.30)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.87 (path difference 1.74)
away adjusted line yards allowed: -0.85 (path difference 2.69)
home adjusted explosiveness: -0.82 (path difference 0.62)
home conference: -0.77 (path difference 0.86)
home adjusted open field yards: +0.70 (path difference 0.89)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.61 (path difference 0.99)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.47 (path difference 0.44)
away adjusted second level yards: -0.40 (path difference 0.48)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.37 (path difference 0.62)
home elo: -0.36 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.36 (path difference 0.42)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.30 (path difference 0.87)
away adjusted epa allowed: -0.27 (path difference 0.36)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.16 (path difference 0.40)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.16 (path difference 1.60)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.14 (path difference 0.85)
away conference: -0.13 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.12 (path difference 0.02)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.03 (path difference 0.05)

Reconciles to 57.90 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 8115ee4ffd254ef083a3cdc53704c7208b5d3b179a05aba5c1d9ebaa9b5a2764 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 46e7fdc745f7f0003d27c9443a0029ec60a29adf22e01afc24713477257e3e47 · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Air Force

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 188 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Owen Allen CFBD athlete 5223119 Week 7 vs UNLV: 18 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 55.6% success · 0.345 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Wyoming: 13 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 38.5% success · -0.142 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UConn: 18 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 38.9% success · 0.000 raw PPA.	49	4.2	26.1%	106 / 4.2
Evan Medders CFBD athlete 5306440 Week 7 vs UNLV: 17 attempts · 7.4 YPC · 52.9% success · 0.657 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Wyoming: 21 attempts · 5.5 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.370 raw PPA.	38	6.3	20.2%	71 / 6.5
Kemper Hodges CFBD athlete 5223112 Week 7 vs UNLV: 2 attempts · 1.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.372 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UConn: 35 attempts · 5.7 YPC · 62.9% success · 0.584 raw PPA.	37	5.5	19.7%	70 / 5.7
Gage LaDue CFBD athlete 5295010 Week 7 vs UNLV: 8 attempts · 7.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.397 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Wyoming: 10 attempts · 5.7 YPC · 80.0% success · 0.042 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UConn: 8 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.224 raw PPA.	26	5.9	13.8%	49 / 5.2
Rocco Conti CFBD athlete 5223131 Week 7 vs UNLV: 12 attempts · 8.6 YPC · 58.3% success · 0.583 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Wyoming: 6 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 16.7% success · 0.588 raw PPA. Week 9 vs UConn: 3 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.429 raw PPA.	21	7.8	11.2%	57 / 6.1

Army

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 160 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Cale Hellums CFBD athlete 5150297 Week 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 25 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 72.0% success · 1.052 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Tulsa: 30 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 37.9% success · 0.327 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Memphis: 13 attempts · 2.6 YPC · 41.7% success · 0.109 raw PPA.	68	5.1	2	42.5%	171 / 5.0
Godspower Nwawuihe CFBD athlete 5293685 Week 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 11 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 63.6% success · 0.086 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Tulsa: 12 attempts · 11.3 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.597 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Memphis: 19 attempts · 5.3 YPC · 42.1% success · 0.247 raw PPA.	42	6.9	0	26.3%	78 / 5.8
Samari Howard CFBD athlete 5150316 Week 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 5 attempts · 8.6 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.496 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Tulsa: 3 attempts · -0.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.205 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Memphis: 7 attempts · 5.4 YPC · 42.9% success · -0.110 raw PPA.	15	5.3	0	9.4%	43 / 8.8
Jake Rendina CFBD athlete 5150329 Week 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 7 attempts · 12.3 YPC · 85.7% success · 1.110 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Tulsa: 2 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.482 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Memphis: 4 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.221 raw PPA.	13	8.5	0	8.1%	34 / 5.7
Bryson Luter CFBD athlete 5293684 Week 7 vs Florida Atlantic: 3 attempts · 26.0 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.867 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Tulsa: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.215 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Memphis: 4 attempts · 12.3 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.935 raw PPA.	8	16.1	0	5.0%	14 / 12.6

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	ArmyOffense	Air ForceDefense	Air ForceOffense	ArmyDefense
PPA/play	+0.31 95th	+0.09 42nd	+0.22 77th	+0.24 6th
Success rate	50.3% 95th	40.3% 55th	49.8% 93rd	46.4% 8th
Explosiveness	1.14 17th	1.28 27th	1.01 0th	1.32 15th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.31 99th	+0.06 35th	+0.24 92nd	+0.15 14th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.34 73rd	+0.15 62nd	+0.14 27th	+0.46 2nd
Havoc allowed / created	7.0% 99th	14.4% 29th	6.8% 100th	11.3% 3rd

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:45 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:45 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Dawson Jones · Army · PAAR 3.01 · 9 attempts
Carter Cremascoli · Air Force · PAAR 4.70 · 10 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Army spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -6 · Snapshot spread: -3

First locally observed: -6 · captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 52.5 · Snapshot total: 44.5

Total · First locally observed: 52.5 · captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -166 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -218 · captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +140 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +180 · captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: -3.5 · Snapshot spread: -3

First locally observed: -3.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 47.5 · Snapshot total: 44.5

Total · First locally observed: 47.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -170 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -170 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +145 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +145 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb

Army

Net adjusted EPA/play -0.0 · 8 rated weeks · American Athletic

50th FBS percentile

Air Force

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.0 · 8 rated weeks · Mountain West

52nd FBS percentile

Travel

Air Force travels 1,629 miles (longer than 90% of road trips, 2017–2025) · 2 time zones crossed · down 6,318 ft in elevation.

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

Air Force leads 38–21, 1 tie in 60 meetings since 1959.

2025Army at Air Force20–17 · Army
2024Air Force at Army3–20 · Army
2023 · NArmy at Air Force23–3 · Army
2022 · NAir Force at Army13–7 · Air Force
2021 · NArmy at Air Force21–14 · Army
2020Air Force at Army7–10 · Army

CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.