Week 9 · 2026

UTEP at North Dakota State

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

UTEP

Window: 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Raymond Moore III QB 3 games	25.4% 18 / 71 plays	51.6% 16 / 31 plays
EJ Colson QB 2 games	21.7% 5 / 23 plays	80.0% 8 / 10 plays
Tavorus Jones RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	52.9% 9 / 17 plays
Lamar Sperling RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	9.1% 1 / 11 plays
Jaden Moore RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 7 plays
Chris Hunter RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	25.0% 1 / 4 plays
Kam Thomas RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 3 plays
Elijah McCoy RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 2 plays

Traditional season production · 60 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Adarius Hutchinson · DB

CFBD athlete 5302794

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 18
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Ashton Coker · DT

CFBD athlete 5151551

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 17

Bodey Weaver · QB

CFBD athlete 5327568

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 2
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Brady Braun · P

CFBD athlete 5299485

punting · In 20: 8
punting · LONG: 71
punting · NO: 32
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 1302
punting · YPP: 40.7

Braesen Leon · QB

CFBD athlete 5390014

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 22
passing · YPA: 22.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -12
rushing · YPC: -12.0

Carlos Arrelola · PK

CFBD athlete 5296572

kicking · FGA: 8
kicking · FGM: 3
kicking · LONG: 47
kicking · PCT: 0.375
kicking · PTS: 20
kicking · XPA: 12
kicking · XPM: 11

Carmelo Taylor · WR

CFBD athlete 5079056

kickReturns · AVG: 18.3
kickReturns · LONG: 24
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 55
receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 5
receiving · YPR: 5.0

Carver Cheeks · WR

CFBD athlete 5168770

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 179
receiving · YPR: 11.2

Cash Cheeks · TE

CFBD athlete 5172260

receiving · LONG: 23
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 111
receiving · YPR: 13.9

Chace Biddle · S

CFBD athlete 4685264

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Chris Hunter · RB

CFBD athlete 5390016

receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 0
receiving · YPR: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 23
rushing · YPC: 3.8

Colt Matlock · DB

CFBD athlete 5327007

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Copelin Windfont · LB

CFBD athlete 5296565

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Darnell Williams · S

CFBD athlete 5141767

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Decorian Thompson · CB

CFBD athlete 5269144

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 17
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 0.0
kickReturns · LONG: 0
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 8
receiving · YPR: 8.0

Derek Burns · DL

CFBD athlete 5220791

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 9

Donavan Howard · S

CFBD athlete 5162535

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 18

Dycin Davis · DE

CFBD athlete 5162726

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

EJ Colson · QB

CFBD athlete 5141395

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 83
passing · COMPLETIONS: 55
passing · INT: 3
passing · PCT: 0.663
passing · TD: 7
passing · YDS: 628
passing · YPA: 7.6
rushing · CAR: 75
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 108
rushing · YPC: 1.4

Elijah Fields · DL

CFBD athlete 5166159

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 19

Elijah McCoy · RB

CFBD athlete 5221272

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 21
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 28
rushing · YPC: 4.7

Esteban Guillory · S

CFBD athlete 5227848

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 28
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Garrett Hawkins · LB

CFBD athlete 5153741

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 30
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Grant Stewart · DB

CFBD athlete 5207932

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Ian Hall · LS

CFBD athlete 5304123

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Isaiah Bogerty · LB

CFBD athlete 5096987

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 42

Jackson Stoner · TE

CFBD athlete 5268744

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Jaden Moore · RB

CFBD athlete 5390015

rushing · CAR: 10
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 20
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Jaden Smith · WR

CFBD athlete 4877714

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 8
passing · YPA: 8.0
receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 28
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 233
receiving · YPR: 8.3
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 13
rushing · YPC: 4.3

Jaime Guerrero · S

CFBD athlete 5159349

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Jayden Wilson · LB

CFBD athlete 5078912

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 38

Jaylan Brown · WR

CFBD athlete 5196350

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Jeremiah Nash · WR

CFBD athlete 5390023

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 82
receiving · YPR: 10.3

Jerrell Brasher · DL

CFBD athlete 5390025

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Jimmy Leon · DL

CFBD athlete 5265531

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Joshua Shaw · DE

CFBD athlete 5327565

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Justin Content · CB

CFBD athlete 5176113

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 32

Justin Lee · LB

CFBD athlete 5214505

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Kaleb Miles · CB

CFBD athlete 5299332

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 17
interceptions · AVG: 1.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 1

Kam Thomas · RB

CFBD athlete 4879292

puntReturns · AVG: 4.6
puntReturns · LONG: 8
puntReturns · NO: 5
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 23
receiving · LONG: 83
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 270
receiving · YPR: 16.9
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -1
rushing · YPC: -0.2

Kane White-Tinsley · S

CFBD athlete 5291875

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Kode Lowe · S

CFBD athlete 4884290

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 25
interceptions · AVG: 17.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 17

Kofi Taylor-Barrocks · DE

CFBD athlete 5008019

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

LaTristan Thompson · DB

CFBD athlete 5155504

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Lamar Sperling · RB

CFBD athlete 5091891

receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 18
receiving · YPR: 18.0
rushing · CAR: 19
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 70
rushing · YPC: 3.7

Leander Parrish · DL

CFBD athlete 5258023

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 5

Marcus Torres · WR

CFBD athlete 5197115

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 10
receiving · YPR: 5.0

Nik Henry · WR

CFBD athlete 5223789

kickReturns · AVG: 19.5
kickReturns · LONG: 25
kickReturns · NO: 6
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 117
puntReturns · AVG: 7.0
puntReturns · LONG: 7
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 7
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 50
receiving · YPR: 12.5
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 18
rushing · YPC: 9.0

Oryend Fisher · DL

CFBD athlete 4921248

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Preston Hickey · DL

CFBD athlete 5081950

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Raymond Moore III · QB

CFBD athlete 5232049

fumbles · FUM: 4
fumbles · LOST: 3
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 72
passing · COMPLETIONS: 44
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.611
passing · TD: 2
passing · YDS: 405
passing · YPA: 5.6
rushing · CAR: 67
rushing · LONG: 86
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 414
rushing · YPC: 6.2

Royal Capell · WR

CFBD athlete 5141402

kickReturns · AVG: 19.5
kickReturns · LONG: 23
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 39
receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 40
receiving · YPR: 10.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -3
rushing · YPC: -3.0

Royce Wilson · DE

CFBD athlete 5210563

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Shakaun Bowser · DL

CFBD athlete 4816089

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 17

Shay Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 5127900

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 21
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Sterling Miles · DE

CFBD athlete 4565306

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 10

TJ Tillman · CB

CFBD athlete 5193832

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Tavorus Jones · RB

CFBD athlete 4685418

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 45
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 58
rushing · LONG: 33
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 261
rushing · YPC: 4.5

Vashon Brunswick II · LB

CFBD athlete 5296562

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Xavier Smith · S

CFBD athlete 4910798

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 35

North Dakota State

Window: 2026-10-25 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Nathan Hayes QB 3 games	34.6% 28 / 81 plays	57.1% 8 / 14 plays
Myles Mitchell RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	39.5% 17 / 43 plays
DJ Scott RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	8.3% 1 / 12 plays
Nyeoti Punni RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	18.2% 2 / 11 plays
Barry Kpeenu RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	44.4% 4 / 9 plays
Preston Brown QB 3 games	0.0% 0 / 2 plays	33.3% 2 / 6 plays
Brady Wavrunek RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 2 / 4 plays
Jackson Williams WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	66.7% 2 / 3 plays

Traditional season production · 66 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aaron Bickerton · P

CFBD athlete 5087313

punting · In 20: 11
punting · LONG: 68
punting · NO: 30
punting · TB: 4
punting · YDS: 1376
punting · YPP: 45.9

Alex Elliott · LB

CFBD athlete 5075590

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 14

Alijah Wayne · DT

CFBD athlete 5297950

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Allante Burley · DE

CFBD athlete 5087173

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Anthony Okes · DE

CFBD athlete 5388965

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Barry Kpeenu · RB

CFBD athlete 5310992

receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: -3
receiving · YPR: -3.0
rushing · CAR: 19
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 61
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Blake Schiltz · DE

CFBD athlete 5297946

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Brady Wavrunek · RB

CFBD athlete 5157011

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 2.0
rushing · CAR: 11
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 52
rushing · YPC: 4.7

CJ Anderson · LS

CFBD athlete 5159545

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Cade Osterman · WR

CFBD athlete 5150681

receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 23
receiving · YPR: 11.5

Chance Tucker · CB

CFBD athlete 4686218

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Chase Evink · DT

CFBD athlete 5297949

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Chris Kiel · WR

CFBD athlete 5297929

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 17.0
kickReturns · LONG: 17
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 17
receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 127
receiving · YPR: 11.5
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -3
rushing · YPC: -3.0

Coy Okeson · G

CFBD athlete 5228023

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

DJ Scott · RB

CFBD athlete 5154224

receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 65
receiving · YPR: 7.2
rushing · CAR: 82
rushing · LONG: 42
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 314
rushing · YPC: 3.8

DJ Voltz · CB

CFBD athlete 5307010

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Damian Devine · LB

CFBD athlete 5297947

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Darius Givance · S

CFBD athlete 5087159

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 30
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Deron Russell · CB

CFBD athlete 5388948

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Donovan Woolen · LB

CFBD athlete 5228018

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 27
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 55
interceptions · AVG: 13.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 13

Drew Klein · PK

CFBD athlete 5087165

kicking · FGA: 13
kicking · FGM: 11
kicking · LONG: 56
kicking · PCT: 0.846
kicking · PTS: 56
kicking · XPA: 25
kicking · XPM: 23

Dylan Vokal · WR

CFBD athlete 5297959

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 7
receiving · YPR: 7.0

Gavin Sell · LB

CFBD athlete 5297944

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 10.0
defensive · TOT: 46
interceptions · AVG: 25.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 25

Hudson Artz · S

CFBD athlete 5087157

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

Isiah St. Romain · WR

CFBD athlete 5228004

receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 66
receiving · YPR: 8.3

Jack Liwienski · G

CFBD athlete 5157018

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jackson Williams · WR

CFBD athlete 5228002

kickReturns · AVG: 21.3
kickReturns · LONG: 35
kickReturns · NO: 11
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 234
puntReturns · AVG: 14.2
puntReturns · LONG: 40
puntReturns · NO: 10
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 142
receiving · LONG: 51
receiving · REC: 32
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 503
receiving · YPR: 15.7
rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 54
rushing · YPC: 7.7

Jacob Wrbanek · LB

CFBD athlete 5297945

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jayden Onuonga · PK

CFBD athlete 5388950

kicking · FGA: 1
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0.000
kicking · PTS: 0
kicking · XPA: 0
kicking · XPM: 0

Jaylen Archibald · S

CFBD athlete 5297934

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Jaylin Crumby · S

CFBD athlete 5157010

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 15

Jeremiah Patterson · WR

CFBD athlete 5219140

puntReturns · AVG: 6.0
puntReturns · LONG: 16
puntReturns · NO: 3
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 18
receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 20
receiving · YPR: 5.0

Jett Zabel · TE

CFBD athlete 5228027

receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 11
receiving · YPR: 11.0

John Gores · WR

CFBD athlete 5087160

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jonathan Harvey · RB

CFBD athlete 5157005

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 3
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 3
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Jordan McCants · WR

CFBD athlete 4912254

receiving · LONG: 44
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 88
receiving · YPR: 29.3

Kaden Zenzen · TE

CFBD athlete 5087167

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Keenan Wilson · DT

CFBD athlete 5157021

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 27
kickReturns · AVG: 17.0
kickReturns · LONG: 17
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 17

Keith Williams · LB

CFBD athlete 5225023

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10
interceptions · AVG: 24.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 24

Kelton McCaslin · DE

CFBD athlete 5087181

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 5.0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.0
defensive · TOT: 17

Kendrick Carter · CB

CFBD athlete 5297933

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Logan Conklin · WR

CFBD athlete 5228026

receiving · LONG: 41
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 72
receiving · YPR: 18.0

Logan Larson · DT

CFBD athlete 5087183

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 24
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Luke Kokat · TE

CFBD athlete 5087169

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Marion Moore · CB

CFBD athlete 5297938

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 23
interceptions · AVG: 12.5
interceptions · INT: 4
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 50

Matthew Stenbroten · DE

CFBD athlete 5228017

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 7
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 22

Mekhi Collins · WR

CFBD athlete 4832952

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 44
receiving · REC: 18
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 227
receiving · YPR: 12.6

Mikhale Ford · S

CFBD athlete 5297935

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Myles Mitchell · RB

CFBD athlete 5297931

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 16
receiving · YPR: 3.2
rushing · CAR: 91
rushing · LONG: 31
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 388
rushing · YPC: 4.3

Najee Nelson · CB

CFBD athlete 5156995

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Nathan Hayes · QB

CFBD athlete 5087156

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 196
passing · COMPLETIONS: 123
passing · INT: 7
passing · PCT: 0.628
passing · TD: 12
passing · YDS: 1470
passing · YPA: 7.5
rushing · CAR: 45
rushing · LONG: 28
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 207
rushing · YPC: 4.6

Noah Taylor · LB

CFBD athlete 5157000

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4

Nyeoti Punni · RB

CFBD athlete 5157399

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 3.0
rushing · CAR: 38
rushing · LONG: 25
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 175
rushing · YPC: 4.6

Obald Niyonkuru · DT

CFBD athlete 5150705

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Peder Haugo · LB

CFBD athlete 5228014

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 15

Preston Brown · QB

CFBD athlete 5297927

passing · ATT: 4
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.250
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 4
passing · YPA: 1.0
rushing · CAR: 11
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 36
rushing · YPC: 3.3

Ray James Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5228007

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 34
interceptions · AVG: 12.5
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 25

Reis Kessel · TE

CFBD athlete 5228015

receiving · LONG: 30
receiving · REC: 21
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 260
receiving · YPR: 12.4

Ryland Satter · LB

CFBD athlete 5228011

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Taylen Eady · S

CFBD athlete 5228008

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 23
interceptions · AVG: 27.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 27

Thomas Roberts · DT

CFBD athlete 5297953

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Trey Drake · QB

CFBD athlete 5156994

passing · ATT: 4
passing · COMPLETIONS: 3
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.750
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 35
passing · YPA: 8.8

Victor Isele · DE

CFBD athlete 5157022

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 6

Walker Braaten · S

CFBD athlete 5297936

interceptions · AVG: 20.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 20

Will Steil · S

CFBD athlete 5228009

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 25

Zach Vanderpool · DT

CFBD athlete 5228024

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

North Dakota State -24.75

DraftKings snapshot: North Dakota State -24.5

Book quote differs from the comparison line.

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

North Dakota State by 27.29

2.54 points toward North Dakota State versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward North Dakota State.

Net EPA rating difference: +23.36
Fitted offset: +5.87
Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to 27.29 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs acc23144d66270fb6f8f31c325cd78e2906aa87e6f0103f2237797d2799bcf7f · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 33d39c2a1e816f118d0099e0eb28c9249ebda7ca3bad26e22c4ef68c0cfe7898 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved -0.5 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: North Dakota State · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest	Change
Market spread	-24.25	-24.75	-0.5
Model spread	-27.29	-27.29	0.0
Model gap	+3.04	+2.54	-0.5

Negative spreads favor North Dakota State; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: acc23144d66270fb6f8f31c325cd78e2906aa87e6f0103f2237797d2799bcf7f. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +2.5 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

North Dakota State win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 96%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: North Dakota State -25
Stacked ensemble: 87%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward North Dakota State.

away elo: +18.27 (path difference 22.89)
away adjusted epa: +7.83 (path difference 11.06)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +5.95 (path difference 9.63)
home adjusted epa allowed: -5.87 (path difference 9.46)
home adjusted success allowed: +5.72 (path difference 6.72)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.81 (path difference 6.83)
away adjusted success allowed: +4.58 (path difference 0.79)
home adjusted epa: +4.56 (path difference 8.12)
away adjusted epa allowed: +3.95 (path difference 5.25)
away adjusted success: +3.36 (path difference 1.61)
home elo: +3.27 (path difference 6.02)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.77 (path difference 0.60)
home adjusted rushing epa: -2.64 (path difference 2.87)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: -2.29 (path difference 3.70)
home adjusted success: -1.85 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.70 (path difference 1.23)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +1.63 (path difference 2.05)
home adjusted explosiveness: +1.55 (path difference 1.21)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.47 (path difference 0.11)
away adjusted passing down success: -1.40 (path difference 0.72)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.14 (path difference 0.23)
home adjusted second level yards: +1.12 (path difference 0.54)
home adjusted standard down success: -1.11 (path difference 2.19)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.10 (path difference 0.83)
home adjusted line yards: -0.96 (path difference 0.05)
home adjusted open field yards: -0.92 (path difference 1.68)
away adjusted standard down success: -0.87 (path difference 0.14)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.82 (path difference 3.50)
away adjusted rushing epa: -0.82 (path difference 1.10)
away adjusted explosiveness: +0.78 (path difference 1.11)
home adjusted passing epa: -0.71 (path difference 1.05)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.66 (path difference 0.21)
home conference: -0.62 (path difference 1.02)
away adjusted second level yards: -0.53 (path difference 0.21)
away conference: -0.52 (path difference 0.41)
home adjusted passing down success: +0.52 (path difference 0.11)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.48 (path difference 0.24)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.45 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.45 (path difference 0.02)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: -0.39 (path difference 0.43)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.34 (path difference 0.50)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.32 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.19 (path difference 0.46)
home talent: -0.18 (path difference 0.03)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.18 (path difference 0.06)
away adjusted line yards: +0.17 (path difference 0.04)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.17 (path difference 0.08)
week: +0.10 (path difference 0.73)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.09 (path difference 0.50)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.08 (path difference 0.29)
away adjusted open field yards: -0.07 (path difference 0.05)
away talent: -0.06 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.05 (path difference 0.10)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.01 (path difference 0.04)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.01 (path difference 0.00)

Reconciles to 86.87 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs cd45cc3f14ed349f1a9a3b9c5d14afe28dc31324ac00c4920fbfee897475af0a · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 58a27118509a1797c18ff6cc0b2021a480fbe36ddfbfc43fccfd5dc8efc94696 · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

UTEP

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 107 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Raymond Moore III CFBD athlete 5232049 Week 5 vs New Mexico: 11 attempts · 12.2 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.935 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Nevada: 14 attempts · 4.9 YPC · 45.5% success · 0.625 raw PPA. Week 7 vs San José State: 19 attempts · 2.9 YPC · 63.6% success · 0.735 raw PPA.	44	5.9	12	41.1%	65 / 6.3
Tavorus Jones CFBD athlete 4685418 Week 6 vs Nevada: 4 attempts · 0.8 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.208 raw PPA. Week 7 vs San José State: 13 attempts · 4.6 YPC · 61.5% success · 0.066 raw PPA.	17	3.7	0	15.9%	56 / 4.6
EJ Colson CFBD athlete 5141395 Week 5 vs New Mexico: 7 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 80.0% success · 1.087 raw PPA. Week 7 vs San José State: 8 attempts · 1.9 YPC · 80.0% success · 0.849 raw PPA.	15	2.7	5	14.0%	74 / 1.5
Lamar Sperling CFBD athlete 5091891 Week 6 vs Nevada: 3 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.335 raw PPA. Week 7 vs San José State: 8 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 12.5% success · 0.204 raw PPA.	11	4.5	0	10.3%	17 / 3.8
Jaden Moore CFBD athlete 5390015 Week 5 vs New Mexico: 6 attempts · 1.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.360 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Nevada: 1 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.022 raw PPA.	7	1.9	0	6.5%	9 / 2.1

North Dakota State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 107 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Myles Mitchell CFBD athlete 5297931 Week 6 vs UNLV: 22 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 36.4% success · -0.192 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Nevada: 13 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 53.8% success · 0.092 raw PPA. Week 8 vs New Mexico: 9 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 22.2% success · 0.000 raw PPA.	44	4.1	0	41.1%	89 / 4.4
Nathan Hayes CFBD athlete 5087156 Week 6 vs UNLV: 5 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.412 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Nevada: 8 attempts · 5.3 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.667 raw PPA. Week 8 vs New Mexico: 4 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.841 raw PPA.	17	5.4	3	15.9%	44 / 4.8
DJ Scott CFBD athlete 5154224 Week 6 vs UNLV: 3 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.423 raw PPA. Week 8 vs New Mexico: 9 attempts · 0.9 YPC · 11.1% success · -0.765 raw PPA.	12	1.3	0	11.2%	80 / 3.8
Nyeoti Punni CFBD athlete 5157399 Week 6 vs UNLV: 1 attempts · 0.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -4.235 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Nevada: 10 attempts · 4.2 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.016 raw PPA.	11	3.8	0	10.3%	36 / 4.7
Barry Kpeenu CFBD athlete 5310992 Week 6 vs UNLV: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.129 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Nevada: 8 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.046 raw PPA.	9	4.0	0	8.4%	19 / 3.2

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	North Dakota StateOffense	UTEPDefense	UTEPOffense	North Dakota StateDefense
PPA/play	+0.09 34th	+0.25 4th	-0.11 1st	-0.12 98th
Success rate	39.5% 18th	46.6% 8th	34.6% 3rd	36.1% 82nd
Explosiveness	1.28 74th	1.24 44th	1.33 85th	1.09 93rd
Standard-down PPA/play	-0.02 17th	+0.25 1st	-0.11 3rd	-0.07 78th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.32 67th	+0.26 28th	-0.10 1st	-0.22 100th
Havoc allowed / created	14.7% 48th	12.1% 7th	22.1% 1st	17.5% 74th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:08 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:08 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Drew Klein · North Dakota State · PAAR 6.81 · 13 attempts
Carlos Arrelola · UTEP · PAAR -7.69 · 8 attempts
Jayden Onuonga · North Dakota State · PAAR -1.57 · 1 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

North Dakota State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -27.5 · Snapshot spread: -24.5

First locally observed: -25.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence