Week 10 · 2026

Hawai'i at UTEP

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Hawai'i

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-11 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T02:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Micah Alejado QB 3 games	42.5% 54 / 127 plays	50.0% 2 / 4 plays
Cam Barfield RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	48.5% 16 / 33 plays
Devon Rice RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 11 / 22 plays
Sitani Mikaele RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 2 / 6 plays
Bjorn Jurgensen QB 2 games	25.0% 1 / 4 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays
TJ Fo'ilefutu RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	40.0% 2 / 5 plays
Tama Uiliata WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	75.0% 3 / 4 plays
Titan Lacaden WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 60 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Adam Tomczyk · DL

CFBD athlete 4912070

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Aisiah Paogofie · LB

CFBD athlete 5215010

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

Alika Cavaco-Amoy · LB

CFBD athlete 5147678

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Audric Harris · WR

CFBD athlete 5079499

receiving · LONG: 55
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 308
receiving · YPR: 19.3

Benjamin Hudson · LB

CFBD athlete 4879728

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Bjorn Jurgensen · QB

CFBD athlete 5211117

passing · ATT: 8
passing · COMPLETIONS: 3
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.375
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 13
passing · YPA: 1.6
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 4
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Blaze Kamoku · WR

CFBD athlete 5218880

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 14.6
kickReturns · LONG: 27
kickReturns · NO: 5
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 73
receiving · LONG: 24
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 72
receiving · YPR: 10.3

Brayton Correa · DB

CFBD athlete 5327571

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Cam Barfield · RB

CFBD athlete 4869582

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 62
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 103
receiving · YPR: 9.4
rushing · CAR: 45
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 150
rushing · YPC: 3.3

Carson Brown · WR

CFBD athlete 5081863

receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 71
receiving · YPR: 11.8

Devin Alves · WR

CFBD athlete 4917119

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 58
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 312
receiving · YPR: 19.5

Devon Rice · RB

CFBD athlete 5079651

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 76
receiving · YPR: 5.1
rushing · CAR: 82
rushing · LONG: 33
rushing · TD: 6
rushing · YDS: 385
rushing · YPC: 4.7

Devon Tauaefa · TE

CFBD athlete 4819259

receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 78
receiving · YPR: 7.8

Elijah Gipson · DB

CFBD athlete 5085572

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 14

Elijah Palmer · DB

CFBD athlete 5074099

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 38
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Elijah Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 5388751

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Ezekiel Rodrigues · DB

CFBD athlete 5218863

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Frank Abreu · TE

CFBD athlete 5173623

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 62
receiving · YPR: 7.8

Gehrig Heil · P

CFBD athlete 5293824

punting · In 20: 16
punting · LONG: 65
punting · NO: 38
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 1655
punting · YPP: 43.6

Geoffrey Speight · DL

CFBD athlete 5083969

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 22

Ha'aheo Dela Cruz · DL

CFBD athlete 5218883

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Iosefa Letuli · DL

CFBD athlete 5219664

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Jahren Altura · DB

CFBD athlete 5302880

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jamih Otis · LB

CFBD athlete 5078004

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 53
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 15.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 15

Jaylon Edmond · DB

CFBD athlete 5150131

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Jeremiah Hughes · DB

CFBD athlete 4891196

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 19
interceptions · AVG: 1.0
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 3

Joenel Figueroa · DB

CFBD athlete 5087651

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jordan Lynch · DL

CFBD athlete 5295255

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Josh Sagapolutele · DL

CFBD athlete 5158924

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 14

Josiah Fetui · WR

CFBD athlete 5218882

receiving · LONG: 47
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 155
receiving · YPR: 19.4

Julian Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 5295239

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Ka'eo Akana · DL

CFBD athlete 4819249

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 7

Kainoa Carvalho · WR

CFBD athlete 5085972

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 35
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 399
receiving · YPR: 11.4

Koa Eldredge · WR

CFBD athlete 5150635

receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 11
receiving · YPR: 5.5

Kodi Decambra · DB

CFBD athlete 4870673

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kona Moore · DB

CFBD athlete 4871221

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 30
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 46
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Kydel Stone · DB

CFBD athlete 5292969

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina · DL

CFBD athlete 5151459

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Luther McCoy · DL

CFBD athlete 4683516

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Makana Meyer · DB

CFBD athlete 5122068

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 20

Marquis Richardson · DB

CFBD athlete 5289727

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Matagi Thompson · DB

CFBD athlete 5084119

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 32

Matteus Ioane · LB

CFBD athlete 5295247

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Micah Alejado · QB

CFBD athlete 5101124

fumbles · FUM: 5
fumbles · LOST: 3
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 337
passing · COMPLETIONS: 202
passing · INT: 6
passing · PCT: 0.599
passing · TD: 9
passing · YDS: 2186
passing · YPA: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 46
rushing · LONG: 22
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 24
rushing · YPC: 0.5

Nazaiah Caravallo · DL

CFBD athlete 5138130

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Nick Delgadillo · WR

CFBD athlete 5158917

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 47
receiving · YPR: 7.8

Noah Wily · DL

CFBD athlete 5147694

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 6

Ozzy Pollard · DL

CFBD athlete 5388753

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 23

Riis Weber · DB

CFBD athlete 5158769

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Sean Olvera-Harle · PK

CFBD athlete 5295256

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kicking · FGA: 16
kicking · FGM: 12
kicking · LONG: 44
kicking · PCT: 0.750
kicking · PTS: 50
kicking · XPA: 16
kicking · XPM: 14

Sitani Mikaele · RB

CFBD athlete 5218869

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 50
receiving · YPR: 8.3
rushing · CAR: 27
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 87
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Spencer Elliott · DL

CFBD athlete 5152780

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 5

TJ Fo'ilefutu · RB

CFBD athlete 5291002

receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 0
receiving · YPR: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 25
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Tama Uiliata · WR

CFBD athlete 5218881

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 7
passing · YPA: 7.0
puntReturns · AVG: 4.5
puntReturns · LONG: 10
puntReturns · NO: 11
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 49
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 32
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 281
receiving · YPR: 8.8
rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 44
rushing · YPC: 6.3

Titan Lacaden · WR

CFBD athlete 5148777

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
kickReturns · AVG: 41.5
kickReturns · LONG: 69
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 83
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 26
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 171
receiving · YPR: 6.6
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 6
rushing · YPC: 6.0

Tre Griffiths · WR

CFBD athlete 5146748

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 9.0

Wynden Ho'Ohuli · LB

CFBD athlete 4432712

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 45
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Zaden Mariteragi · LB

CFBD athlete 5215031

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Zion Allen · DB

CFBD athlete 4917317

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Zoram Petelo · DL

CFBD athlete 5121470

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 6

UTEP

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T02:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Raymond Moore III QB 3 games	27.1% 19 / 70 plays	54.2% 13 / 24 plays
EJ Colson QB 2 games	28.6% 8 / 28 plays	60.0% 6 / 10 plays
Tavorus Jones RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	41.7% 10 / 24 plays
Lamar Sperling RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	7.1% 1 / 14 plays
Jaden Smith WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 1 / 2 plays
Elijah McCoy RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 1 / 2 plays
Chris Hunter RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 2 plays
Kam Thomas RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 62 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Adarius Hutchinson · DB

CFBD athlete 5302794

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 19
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Ashton Coker · DT

CFBD athlete 5151551

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 23

Bodey Weaver · QB

CFBD athlete 5327568

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 2
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Brady Braun · P

CFBD athlete 5299485

punting · In 20: 9
punting · LONG: 71
punting · NO: 38
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 1537
punting · YPP: 40.4

Braesen Leon · QB

CFBD athlete 5390014

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 22
passing · YPA: 22.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -12
rushing · YPC: -12.0

Carlos Arrelola · PK

CFBD athlete 5296572

kicking · FGA: 8
kicking · FGM: 3
kicking · LONG: 47
kicking · PCT: 0.375
kicking · PTS: 21
kicking · XPA: 13
kicking · XPM: 12

Carmelo Taylor · WR

CFBD athlete 5079056

kickReturns · AVG: 18.3
kickReturns · LONG: 24
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 55
receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 5
receiving · YPR: 5.0

Carver Cheeks · WR

CFBD athlete 5168770

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 187
receiving · YPR: 11.0

Cash Cheeks · TE

CFBD athlete 5172260

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 23
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 118
receiving · YPR: 13.1

Chace Biddle · S

CFBD athlete 4685264

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Chris Hunter · RB

CFBD athlete 5390016

receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 0
receiving · YPR: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 26
rushing · YPC: 3.7

Colt Matlock · DB

CFBD athlete 5327007

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Copelin Windfont · LB

CFBD athlete 5296565

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

DAdrian Tinney-Anderson · DL

CFBD athlete 5302803

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Darnell Williams · S

CFBD athlete 5141767

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Decorian Thompson · CB

CFBD athlete 5269144

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 17
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 0.0
kickReturns · LONG: 0
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 8
receiving · YPR: 8.0

Derek Burns · DL

CFBD athlete 5220791

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 9

Donavan Howard · S

CFBD athlete 5162535

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 18

Dycin Davis · DE

CFBD athlete 5162726

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 7
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

EJ Colson · QB

CFBD athlete 5141395

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 99
passing · COMPLETIONS: 66
passing · INT: 5
passing · PCT: 0.667
passing · TD: 7
passing · YDS: 687
passing · YPA: 6.9
rushing · CAR: 85
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 129
rushing · YPC: 1.5

Elijah Fields · DL

CFBD athlete 5166159

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Elijah McCoy · RB

CFBD athlete 5221272

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
rushing · CAR: 8
rushing · LONG: 21
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 38
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Esteban Guillory · S

CFBD athlete 5227848

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 40
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Garrett Hawkins · LB

CFBD athlete 5153741

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 30
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Grant Stewart · DB

CFBD athlete 5207932

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Ian Hall · LS

CFBD athlete 5304123

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Isaiah Bogerty · LB

CFBD athlete 5096987

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 42

Jackson Stoner · TE

CFBD athlete 5268744

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Jaden Moore · RB

CFBD athlete 5390015

rushing · CAR: 10
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 20
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Jaden Smith · WR

CFBD athlete 4877714

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 8
passing · YPA: 8.0
receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 34
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 274
receiving · YPR: 8.1
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 21
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 34
rushing · YPC: 8.5

Jaime Guerrero · S

CFBD athlete 5159349

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Jayden Wilson · LB

CFBD athlete 5078912

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 44

Jaylan Brown · WR

CFBD athlete 5196350

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Jeremiah Nash · WR

CFBD athlete 5390023

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 82
receiving · YPR: 10.3

Jerrell Brasher · DL

CFBD athlete 5390025

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Jimmy Leon · DL

CFBD athlete 5265531

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Joshua Shaw · DE

CFBD athlete 5327565

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Judah Ezinwa · TE

CFBD athlete 5151181

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Justin Content · CB

CFBD athlete 5176113

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 41

Justin Lee · LB

CFBD athlete 5214505

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Kaleb Miles · CB

CFBD athlete 5299332

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 21
interceptions · AVG: 3.5
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 7

Kam Thomas · RB

CFBD athlete 4879292

puntReturns · AVG: 3.8
puntReturns · LONG: 8
puntReturns · NO: 6
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 23
receiving · LONG: 83
receiving · REC: 19
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 283
receiving · YPR: 14.9
rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 0.8

Kane White-Tinsley · S

CFBD athlete 5291875

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Kode Lowe · S

CFBD athlete 4884290

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 35
interceptions · AVG: 17.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 17

Kofi Taylor-Barrocks · DE

CFBD athlete 5008019

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

LaTristan Thompson · DB

CFBD athlete 5155504

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Lamar Sperling · RB

CFBD athlete 5091891

receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 19
receiving · YPR: 19.0
rushing · CAR: 22
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 74
rushing · YPC: 3.4

Leander Parrish · DL

CFBD athlete 5258023

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 5

Marcus Torres · WR

CFBD athlete 5197115

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 10
receiving · YPR: 5.0

Nik Henry · WR

CFBD athlete 5223789

kickReturns · AVG: 19.5
kickReturns · LONG: 25
kickReturns · NO: 6
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 117
puntReturns · AVG: 7.0
puntReturns · LONG: 7
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 7
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 50
receiving · YPR: 12.5
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 18
rushing · YPC: 9.0

Oryend Fisher · DL

CFBD athlete 4921248

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8
receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 8
receiving · YPR: 8.0

Preston Hickey · DL

CFBD athlete 5081950

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Raymond Moore III · QB

CFBD athlete 5232049

fumbles · FUM: 4
fumbles · LOST: 3
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 78
passing · COMPLETIONS: 48
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.615
passing · TD: 2
passing · YDS: 437
passing · YPA: 5.6
rushing · CAR: 70
rushing · LONG: 86
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 481
rushing · YPC: 6.9

Royal Capell · WR

CFBD athlete 5141402

kickReturns · AVG: 19.5
kickReturns · LONG: 23
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 39
receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 44
receiving · YPR: 8.8
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -3
rushing · YPC: -3.0

Royce Wilson · DE

CFBD athlete 5210563

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Shakaun Bowser · DL

CFBD athlete 4816089

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 20

Shay Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 5127900

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 21
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Sterling Miles · DE

CFBD athlete 4565306

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 12

TJ Tillman · CB

CFBD athlete 5193832

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Tavorus Jones · RB

CFBD athlete 4685418

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 48
receiving · YPR: 4.8
rushing · CAR: 66
rushing · LONG: 33
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 276
rushing · YPC: 4.2

Vashon Brunswick II · LB

CFBD athlete 5296562

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Xavier Smith · S

CFBD athlete 4910798

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 38

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

UTEP +8.5

EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

Comparison line · CFBD median

Hawai'i -8.5

DraftKings snapshot: UTEP +8.5

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Hawai'i by 4.08

4.42 points toward UTEP versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward UTEP.

Net EPA rating difference: -8.09
Fitted offset: +5.20
Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to -4.08 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs 21a2a0dba5ca634c5eb3a56217c86f2a7d13ded8e9a31c558928f98eba9a9d42 · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 198b4844dbccc4f34021fd8c0e2915af702d8672170367e03125aacbf556f342 · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved -0.75 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: UTEP · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest	Change
Market spread	+9.25	+8.5	-0.75
Model spread	+4.08	+4.08	0.0
Model gap	+5.17	+4.42	-0.75

Negative spreads favor UTEP; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 21a2a0dba5ca634c5eb3a56217c86f2a7d13ded8e9a31c558928f98eba9a9d42. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

UTEP +8.5

Model gap +4.4 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor UTEP.

Win probabilities · separate sources

UTEP win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 28%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: UTEP +8.5
Stacked ensemble: 27%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward UTEP.

home elo: -26.71 (path difference 5.26)
home adjusted epa: +12.26 (path difference 8.86)
home adjusted success allowed: -11.17 (path difference 0.40)
home adjusted success: -8.81 (path difference 2.16)
away adjusted success allowed: +7.96 (path difference 0.27)
away elo: +7.73 (path difference 7.06)
home adjusted passing epa: -7.35 (path difference 3.61)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +4.91 (path difference 0.34)
away adjusted epa: +4.23 (path difference 2.49)
away adjusted passing down success: -3.51 (path difference 2.78)
home adjusted explosiveness: +3.34 (path difference 0.22)
home adjusted line yards: -2.85 (path difference 1.28)
home adjusted epa allowed: +2.78 (path difference 4.43)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: +2.59 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +2.44 (path difference 0.35)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +2.42 (path difference 0.08)
home adjusted rushing epa: -2.35 (path difference 1.93)
home adjusted second level yards: +1.97 (path difference 0.42)
week: -1.70 (path difference 0.81)
away adjusted epa allowed: +1.55 (path difference 2.42)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -1.50 (path difference 0.68)
away adjusted second level yards: +1.41 (path difference 0.26)
away adjusted passing epa: +1.22 (path difference 0.24)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.17 (path difference 0.80)
home adjusted standard down success: -1.15 (path difference 0.23)
home talent: +1.11 (path difference 0.97)
away adjusted line yards: -1.10 (path difference 0.85)
home conference: -0.98 (path difference 0.31)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.85 (path difference 0.16)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.82 (path difference 0.63)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.78 (path difference 1.01)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.78 (path difference 0.57)
away conference: -0.76 (path difference 0.06)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.73 (path difference 0.62)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.73 (path difference 1.24)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.65 (path difference 0.15)
away adjusted rushing epa: -0.61 (path difference 0.60)
home adjusted passing down success: +0.56 (path difference 3.16)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.53 (path difference 0.17)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.51 (path difference 0.70)
away talent: +0.48 (path difference 0.07)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.46 (path difference 0.04)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.36 (path difference 0.23)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.33 (path difference 0.20)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.30 (path difference 0.49)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.29 (path difference 0.28)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.28 (path difference 2.11)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.28 (path difference 0.02)
away adjusted success: -0.25 (path difference 0.33)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.24 (path difference 0.07)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.21 (path difference 0.79)
away adjusted standard down success: +0.18 (path difference 0.56)
home adjusted open field yards: -0.15 (path difference 0.09)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.09 (path difference 0.03)
away adjusted explosiveness: -0.05 (path difference 0.01)

Reconciles to 27.02 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 02c14a5f99ccfa0e7f44e44e274f437c5b6f11504789c205abc4de4265af26f5 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 5e6cb9fb862480c46231314500038359ca221ffbe0a63da241df61225ad7779f · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Hawai'i

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 84 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Cam Barfield CFBD athlete 4869582 Week 6 vs Arizona State: 6 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.311 raw PPA. Week 7 vs New Mexico: 12 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 41.7% success · -0.122 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Northern Illinois: 16 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 62.5% success · 0.183 raw PPA.	34	3.1	0	40.5%	45 / 3.3
Devon Rice CFBD athlete 5079651 Week 6 vs Arizona State: 6 attempts · 4.7 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.017 raw PPA. Week 7 vs New Mexico: 4 attempts · 1.5 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.119 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Northern Illinois: 12 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.517 raw PPA.	22	4.8	0	26.2%	82 / 4.7
Micah Alejado CFBD athlete 5101124 Week 6 vs Arizona State: 5 attempts · -0.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.858 raw PPA. Week 7 vs New Mexico: 6 attempts · -0.8 YPC · 66.7% success · -0.386 raw PPA.	11	-0.8	6	13.1%	42 / 0.3
Sitani Mikaele CFBD athlete 5218869 Week 7 vs New Mexico: 2 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.331 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Northern Illinois: 4 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.218 raw PPA.	6	3.3	0	7.1%	27 / 3.2
TJ Fo'ilefutu CFBD athlete 5291002 Week 6 vs Arizona State: 1 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.044 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Northern Illinois: 4 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.847 raw PPA.	5	5.0	0	6.0%	5 / 5.0

UTEP

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 100 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Raymond Moore III CFBD athlete 5232049 Week 6 vs Nevada: 14 attempts · 4.9 YPC · 45.5% success · 0.625 raw PPA. Week 7 vs San José State: 19 attempts · 2.9 YPC · 63.6% success · 0.735 raw PPA. Week 9 vs North Dakota State: 3 attempts · 22.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.455 raw PPA.	36	5.3	11	36.0%	68 / 7.0
Tavorus Jones CFBD athlete 4685418 Week 6 vs Nevada: 4 attempts · 0.8 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.208 raw PPA. Week 7 vs San José State: 13 attempts · 4.6 YPC · 61.5% success · 0.066 raw PPA. Week 9 vs North Dakota State: 7 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 14.3% success · -0.457 raw PPA.	24	2.9	0	24.0%	63 / 4.2
EJ Colson CFBD athlete 5141395 Week 7 vs San José State: 8 attempts · 1.9 YPC · 80.0% success · 0.849 raw PPA. Week 9 vs North Dakota State: 9 attempts · 1.9 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.347 raw PPA.	17	1.9	7	17.0%	83 / 1.5
Lamar Sperling CFBD athlete 5091891 Week 6 vs Nevada: 3 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.335 raw PPA. Week 7 vs San José State: 8 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 12.5% success · 0.204 raw PPA. Week 9 vs North Dakota State: 3 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.323 raw PPA.	14	3.9	0	14.0%	20 / 3.5
Jaden Smith CFBD athlete 4877714 Week 6 vs Nevada: 1 attempts · -5.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.657 raw PPA. Week 9 vs North Dakota State: 1 attempts · 21.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 3.292 raw PPA.	2	8.0	0	2.0%	4 / 8.5

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	UTEPOffense	Hawai'iDefense	Hawai'iOffense	UTEPDefense
PPA/play	-0.11 1st	+0.18 15th	+0.06 25th	+0.24 7th
Success rate	34.1% 1st	44.7% 16th	40.8% 35th	46.1% 10th
Explosiveness	1.34 88th	1.19 66th	1.14 15th	1.24 45th
Standard-down PPA/play	-0.12 2nd	+0.08 31st	+0.06 38th	+0.23 2nd
Passing-down PPA/play	-0.11 1st	+0.43 6th	+0.05 12th	+0.24 34th
Havoc allowed / created	22.7% 1st	13.6% 19th	17.2% 18th	12.2% 9th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:55 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:55 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Sean Olvera-Harle · Hawai'i · PAAR 0.63 · 16 attempts
Carlos Arrelola · UTEP · PAAR -7.69 · 8 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

UTEP spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +11.5 · Snapshot spread: +8.5

First locally observed: +9.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence