Week 9 · 2026

Coastal Carolina at Georgia State

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Coastal Carolina

Window: 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T18:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Deuce Bailey QB 3 games	38.4% 33 / 86 plays	45.0% 9 / 20 plays
Dominic Knicely RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	43.1% 25 / 58 plays
Jaden Allen-Hendrix RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	41.2% 7 / 17 plays
Jevon Edwards RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 2 plays
Robby Washington WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays
Trever Jackson QB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
Breyahn Townsend RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 61 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Ahmad Poole · DT

CFBD athlete 5222870

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 24

Azarel Juste · DB

CFBD athlete 5226273

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Ben Verges · TE

CFBD athlete 5379841

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 37
receiving · YPR: 9.3

Brandon Rose · S

CFBD athlete 5212695

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 31

Braxton Starnes · LB

CFBD athlete 5296436

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 9

Breyahn Townsend · RB

CFBD athlete 5295756

rushing · CAR: 9
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 31
rushing · YPC: 3.4

Cam Williams · DT

CFBD athlete 5233683

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Chandavian Bradley · DE

CFBD athlete 4870633

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10

Chase Jackson · S

CFBD athlete 5193350

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 17
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Chris Henry · S

CFBD athlete 5147515

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Clayton Coppock · WR

CFBD athlete 5265446

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 39
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 250
receiving · YPR: 17.9

Colton Hinton · WR

CFBD athlete 5153389

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 36.0
kickReturns · LONG: 51
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 72
receiving · LONG: 65
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 297
receiving · YPR: 22.8

Cyrus Ellison · TE

CFBD athlete 5095242

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 23
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 48
receiving · YPR: 12.0

DJ Wesolak · DT

CFBD athlete 4717697

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 12

Daelen Alexander · RB

CFBD athlete 5103798

rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 12
rushing · YPC: 6.0

Damill Bostic Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5226953

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 12

Deuce Bailey · QB

CFBD athlete 5296439

fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 204
passing · COMPLETIONS: 109
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.534
passing · TD: 16
passing · YDS: 1638
passing · YPA: 8.0
rushing · CAR: 68
rushing · LONG: 21
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 230
rushing · YPC: 3.4

Dezmond Barnes · DT

CFBD athlete 5296455

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Dominic Knicely · RB

CFBD athlete 5203477

receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 65
receiving · YPR: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 80
rushing · LONG: 70
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 452
rushing · YPC: 5.7

Don Quist · DB

CFBD athlete 5296440

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Donovan Grayson · DE

CFBD athlete 5161775

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 16

Dre Pinckney · S

CFBD athlete 4684977

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Gabe White · CB

CFBD athlete 5231155

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Gavin Carrick · LS

CFBD athlete 5295762

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Goldie Lawrence · WR

CFBD athlete 5150845

receiving · LONG: 62
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 111
receiving · YPR: 22.2

Ibrahim Diawara · DE

CFBD athlete 5221086

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 5.0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.5
defensive · TOT: 30
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Ja'Marion Wayne · CB

CFBD athlete 4685602

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 32
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Jaden Allen-Hendrix · RB

CFBD athlete 5193388

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 33
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 33
receiving · YPR: 33.0
rushing · CAR: 27
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 115
rushing · YPC: 4.3

Jalen B. Lee · S

CFBD athlete 5085779

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 37
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jesse Powell II · DB

CFBD athlete 5086520

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 23

Jevon Edwards · RB

CFBD athlete 5265325

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 35
receiving · YPR: 8.8
rushing · CAR: 44
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 141
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Jordan Stevens · DE

CFBD athlete 5327681

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

Jordan Thompson · LB

CFBD athlete 4871038

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 32

Kaden Sapp · LB

CFBD athlete 5295761

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Karmello English · WR

CFBD athlete 4870699

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 6.5
puntReturns · LONG: 15
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 13
receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 184
receiving · YPR: 10.8
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 10
rushing · YPC: 10.0

Kente Edwards · RB

CFBD athlete 5152669

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 21
rushing · YPC: 5.3

King White · CB

CFBD athlete 5379842

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 1

Krosse Johnson · WR

CFBD athlete 5193351

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Leo Liptak · PK

CFBD athlete 5448324

kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 1
kicking · XPA: 1
kicking · XPM: 1

Marcellius Pulliam · LB

CFBD athlete 4918441

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 68

Mitch Weisenborn · LS

CFBD athlete 5296452

kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 3
kicking · XPA: 3
kicking · XPM: 3

Mitchell Toney · DE

CFBD athlete 5154291

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 3.0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 23

Myles Woods · DB

CFBD athlete 5146822

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 15

Nathan Schuessler · WR

CFBD athlete 5157282

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Nico Cavanillas Alti · PK

CFBD athlete 5304544

kicking · FGA: 8
kicking · FGM: 7
kicking · LONG: 58
kicking · PCT: 0.875
kicking · PTS: 39
kicking · XPA: 18
kicking · XPM: 18

Nolan Korzeniowski · DT

CFBD athlete 5085699

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 8

Obinna Onwuka · DE

CFBD athlete 5139101

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Reggie Jean · DT

CFBD athlete 4836468

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 11
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Robby Washington · WR

CFBD athlete 4871022

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 19.5
kickReturns · LONG: 28
kickReturns · NO: 8
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 156
puntReturns · AVG: 24.8
puntReturns · LONG: 73
puntReturns · NO: 6
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 149
receiving · LONG: 71
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 282
receiving · YPR: 17.6
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 18
rushing · YPC: 6.0

Roland Podesta · P

CFBD athlete 5258479

punting · In 20: 13
punting · LONG: 53
punting · NO: 35
punting · TB: 3
punting · YDS: 1484
punting · YPP: 42.4

Ryan Grayson · CB

CFBD athlete 5141486

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Se'Von McDowell · LB

CFBD athlete 5193658

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 23
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2

Travis Roman · CB

CFBD athlete 5161229

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 29
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Tray Brown · LB

CFBD athlete 4812334

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Tre Guerra · QB

CFBD athlete 5152029

passing · ATT: 3
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.333
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 6
passing · YPA: 2.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -5
rushing · YPC: -5.0

Trever Jackson · QB

CFBD athlete 5126470

rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 12
rushing · YPC: 6.0

Tristian Gardner · WR

CFBD athlete 5296438

receiving · LONG: 39
receiving · REC: 18
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 257
receiving · YPR: 14.3

Wyatt Gedeon · LB

CFBD athlete 5077358

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Xzavier Booker · DT

CFBD athlete 5300001

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 15
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Zach Courtney · TE

CFBD athlete 4833356

receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 36
receiving · YPR: 18.0

Zeke Marshall · S

CFBD athlete 5379835

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 2
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 2
receiving · YPR: 2.0

Georgia State

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T18:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Cameran Brown QB 3 games	44.8% 26 / 58 plays	50.0% 5 / 10 plays
Ayden Pereira QB 3 games	37.0% 10 / 27 plays	46.2% 6 / 13 plays
Qwantavius Wiggins RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	53.6% 15 / 28 plays
Lanear McCrary Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	34.8% 8 / 23 plays
DJ Murray Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	61.9% 13 / 21 plays
Xavier Butler RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 3 / 6 plays
Savion Hart RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	25.0% 1 / 4 plays

Traditional season production · 69 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Vaughns · DT

CFBD athlete 5381389

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Aaron Moore · DE

CFBD athlete 5293483

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Alex Mullings · DT

CFBD athlete 5216655

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 15

Andre Jocelyn · CB

CFBD athlete 5381376

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Antonio Wesley · LB

CFBD athlete 5220694

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Austin McGee · WR

CFBD athlete 5145653

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 2
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 2
receiving · YPR: 2.0

Avion McBride · TE

CFBD athlete 4888163

receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 47
receiving · YPR: 11.8

Ayden Pereira · QB

CFBD athlete 5083490

passing · ATT: 36
passing · COMPLETIONS: 21
passing · INT: 3
passing · PCT: 0.583
passing · TD: 2
passing · YDS: 263
passing · YPA: 7.3
rushing · CAR: 18
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 78
rushing · YPC: 4.3

Balint Vorosmarty · PK

CFBD athlete 5292030

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 1
kicking · XPA: 1
kicking · XPM: 1

Cameran Brown · QB

CFBD athlete 5193926

passing · ATT: 166
passing · COMPLETIONS: 110
passing · INT: 5
passing · PCT: 0.663
passing · TD: 14
passing · YDS: 1356
passing · YPA: 8.2
receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: -6
receiving · YPR: -6.0
rushing · CAR: 40
rushing · LONG: 24
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 174
rushing · YPC: 4.4

Chandler Covington · LB

CFBD athlete 5222607

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Christian Teeter · P

CFBD athlete 5381374

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
punting · In 20: 6
punting · LONG: 59
punting · NO: 15
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 653
punting · YPP: 43.5

Coby Owens · LB

CFBD athlete 5295773

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.0
defensive · TOT: 35

D'Ontae Fulton · WR

CFBD athlete 5216496

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

DJ Murray Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5146273

receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 155
receiving · YPR: 14.1
rushing · CAR: 37
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 225
rushing · YPC: 6.1

DJ Riles · WR

CFBD athlete 4812474

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 50
passing · YPA: 50.0
puntReturns · AVG: 10.8
puntReturns · LONG: 26
puntReturns · NO: 5
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 54
receiving · LONG: 37
receiving · REC: 23
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 248
receiving · YPR: 10.8

Darius Johnson · CB

CFBD athlete 5095071

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12

Demonte Gaston · S

CFBD athlete 5295770

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Derrick Avery Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5216495

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 80
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 191
receiving · YPR: 17.4

Derrick Maxey III · S

CFBD athlete 5157272

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 8

Deuce Lee · S

CFBD athlete 5153891

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 21
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Deuce Walker · S

CFBD athlete 5147202

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Donovan Faria · S

CFBD athlete 5381373

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 30
interceptions · AVG: 17.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 17

Eli Richards · DT

CFBD athlete 5334186

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Eric Butler Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5381372

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Freddie Wilson · DE

CFBD athlete 5245139

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Gavin Nuckolls · QB

CFBD athlete 5381375

passing · ATT: 3
passing · COMPLETIONS: 3
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 20
passing · YPA: 6.7

Grant Hollier · TE

CFBD athlete 5229332

receiving · LONG: 44
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 149
receiving · YPR: 13.5

Isaiah Stone · WR

CFBD athlete 5218720

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 32.6
kickReturns · LONG: 100
kickReturns · NO: 8
kickReturns · TD: 1
kickReturns · YDS: 261
receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 54
receiving · YPR: 13.5
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 18
rushing · YPC: 6.0

Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson · DE

CFBD athlete 5295772

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 5
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6.5
defensive · TOT: 14
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jackson Tolley · LS

CFBD athlete 5381385

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jacorey Walker · CB

CFBD athlete 5381378

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jaden Kelly · LB

CFBD athlete 5229486

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Jamal Bing Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5155355

receiving · LONG: 15
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 15
receiving · YPR: 15.0
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 29
rushing · YPC: 5.8

Jamari Miller · WR

CFBD athlete 5217752

receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 32
rushing · YPC: 8.0

Jaydon Hood · LB

CFBD athlete 4611768

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 46
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jaylin Marshall · WR

CFBD athlete 5112634

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jonah Reeder · DT

CFBD athlete 5295768

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Joseph Holt · S

CFBD athlete 5216404

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Keenan Nelson Jr. · S

CFBD athlete 4685483

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 18

Kelan Butler · LB

CFBD athlete 5141396

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 9

Kelze Howard · DE

CFBD athlete 5157301

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Keron Milton · WR

CFBD athlete 5220697

receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 27
receiving · YPR: 13.5

Kevin Norwood · DT

CFBD athlete 5147776

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4

Khalid Feliz · LB

CFBD athlete 5293503

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kyle Washington · WR

CFBD athlete 5149004

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 130
receiving · YPR: 13.0

Landon Vargas · PK

CFBD athlete 5381380

punting · In 20: 1
punting · LONG: 53
punting · NO: 8
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 371
punting · YPP: 46.4

Lanear McCrary Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5233868

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 29
receiving · YPR: 4.8
rushing · CAR: 82
rushing · LONG: 30
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 399
rushing · YPC: 4.9

Malique Harrell · CB

CFBD athlete 5327509

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Mandjou Berte · DT

CFBD athlete 5381392

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 13

Marcus Mascoll · OL

CFBD athlete 5146788

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Owen Dupree · WR

CFBD athlete 5175175

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 0.0
kickReturns · LONG: 0
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 50
receiving · YPR: 16.7

Qwantavius Wiggins · RB

CFBD athlete 5244023

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 33
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 106
receiving · YPR: 9.6
rushing · CAR: 54
rushing · LONG: 78
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 350
rushing · YPC: 6.5

Richard Kramer · DE

CFBD athlete 5226466

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 8

Rodshaun Dorsey · WR

CFBD athlete 5225013

receiving · LONG: 50
receiving · REC: 24
receiving · TD: 8
receiving · YDS: 418
receiving · YPR: 17.4

Ryan Green · LB

CFBD athlete 5381379

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Samer Layous · PK

CFBD athlete 5298905

kicking · FGA: 10
kicking · FGM: 9
kicking · LONG: 49
kicking · PCT: 0.900
kicking · PTS: 54
kicking · XPA: 27
kicking · XPM: 27

Samuel Chukwurah · DT

CFBD athlete 5381391

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Savion Hart · RB

CFBD athlete 5225717

receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 44
receiving · YPR: 11.0
rushing · CAR: 10
rushing · LONG: 41
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 77
rushing · YPC: 7.7

TJ Stanley · QB

CFBD athlete 5216706

passing · ATT: 3
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.667
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 19
passing · YPA: 6.3

Toby Bolton · CB

CFBD athlete 5153760

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Tre Mittman · S

CFBD athlete 5226770

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 25
puntReturns · AVG: 13.0
puntReturns · LONG: 13
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 13

Ty Snead · S

CFBD athlete 5258537

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Tyson McCrary · CB

CFBD athlete 5295776

defensive · PD: 8
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 21

Wesley Campbell VI · TE

CFBD athlete 5220219

receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 3.0

Xavier Butler · RB

CFBD athlete 5292031

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 19.0
kickReturns · LONG: 21
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 38
receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 3
receiving · YPR: 1.5
rushing · CAR: 8
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 66
rushing · YPC: 8.3

Xavier Esquillen · LB

CFBD athlete 5166484

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 6
defensive · SACKS: 7
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 9.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Zach Stair · WR

CFBD athlete 5308878

fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 22
receiving · YPR: 7.3

Zachary Davis · LB

CFBD athlete 5255517

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Georgia State -4.25

EPA-OLS history for 7-14 point gaps: 46% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 97 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

CFBD median

DraftKings snapshot: Georgia State -4.5

Book quote differs from the comparison line.

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Georgia State by 11.73

7.48 points toward Georgia State versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Georgia State.

Net EPA rating difference: +7.80
Fitted offset: +5.87
Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to 11.73 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 5436e309df5bdbc7ab1428009c05337ae5512682e4e884f67b6066c7267b09df · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast f5647bdc1e921504c863f12c2ab8e3d2cd029cfc28094680c8742d4f19d57232 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved +1.75 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Georgia State · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest	Change
Market spread	-6.0	-4.25	+1.75
Model spread	-11.73	-11.73	0.0
Model gap	+5.73	+7.48	+1.75

Negative spreads favor Georgia State; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 5436e309df5bdbc7ab1428009c05337ae5512682e4e884f67b6066c7267b09df. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Georgia State -4.25

Model gap +7.5 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Georgia State.

Win probabilities · separate sources

Georgia State win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 61%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Georgia State -4
Stacked ensemble: 81%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Georgia State.

away elo: +14.38 (path difference 10.85)
home elo: -6.65 (path difference 2.38)
home adjusted passing epa: +6.23 (path difference 5.66)
away adjusted success allowed: +5.61 (path difference 0.23)
home adjusted success: +4.48 (path difference 5.46)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -3.86 (path difference 0.07)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +3.84 (path difference 3.28)
away adjusted epa: +2.74 (path difference 2.57)
home adjusted success allowed: +2.67 (path difference 1.85)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: +2.34 (path difference 2.63)
home adjusted epa allowed: -2.19 (path difference 0.43)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +2.14 (path difference 1.58)
away adjusted explosiveness: +1.98 (path difference 0.88)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +1.69 (path difference 3.29)
home adjusted rushing epa: -1.63 (path difference 1.02)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.55 (path difference 0.82)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.47 (path difference 1.41)
away adjusted line yards: -1.42 (path difference 1.77)
home adjusted line yards: +1.42 (path difference 0.92)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +1.41 (path difference 2.19)
away adjusted standard down success: -1.41 (path difference 1.12)
away adjusted success: +1.30 (path difference 0.25)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: -1.24 (path difference 2.15)
home adjusted explosiveness: +1.18 (path difference 0.03)
home adjusted epa: +1.17 (path difference 2.12)
home adjusted second level yards: +1.17 (path difference 1.35)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +1.01 (path difference 0.05)
home talent: +0.91 (path difference 1.10)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.70 (path difference 0.65)
away conference: +0.69 (path difference 1.07)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.65 (path difference 0.84)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.55 (path difference 1.30)
away adjusted second level yards: -0.54 (path difference 0.60)
away adjusted passing down success: -0.52 (path difference 0.37)
home adjusted standard down success: +0.51 (path difference 2.32)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.46 (path difference 0.54)
away adjusted epa allowed: +0.46 (path difference 1.66)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.42 (path difference 0.65)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.42 (path difference 0.69)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.35 (path difference 1.15)
home adjusted open field yards: +0.33 (path difference 0.39)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.30 (path difference 0.01)
home conference: +0.30 (path difference 0.28)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -0.26 (path difference 0.28)
week: +0.23 (path difference 0.51)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.19 (path difference 0.37)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.18 (path difference 0.83)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.18 (path difference 0.30)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.15 (path difference 0.04)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.15 (path difference 0.52)
home adjusted passing down success: +0.14 (path difference 0.11)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.08 (path difference 0.02)
away adjusted rushing epa: +0.07 (path difference 0.13)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.05 (path difference 0.01)
away talent: +0.04 (path difference 0.02)

Reconciles to 81.35 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 10f0d542720adcd86e0051cf1d207f93d221bedebe9bc5c3bc05b0613a742e7a · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 0bbd497bce98cdcb4b1803c5b60ec7e8864571cc325eb7f94f62d8d3f0ecff81 · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Coastal Carolina

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 105 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Dominic Knicely CFBD athlete 5203477 Week 5 vs Georgia Southern: 16 attempts · 4.6 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.088 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Marshall: 24 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.311 raw PPA. Week 7 vs App State: 18 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.160 raw PPA.	58	5.7	0	55.2%	79 / 5.7
Deuce Bailey CFBD athlete 5296439 Week 5 vs Georgia Southern: 11 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 62.5% success · 0.498 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Marshall: 8 attempts · 2.6 YPC · 14.3% success · -0.145 raw PPA. Week 7 vs App State: 5 attempts · 7.6 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.400 raw PPA.	24	4.3	4	22.9%	63 / 3.6
Jaden Allen-Hendrix CFBD athlete 5193388 Week 5 vs Georgia Southern: 3 attempts · 1.7 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.517 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Marshall: 8 attempts · 4.9 YPC · 37.5% success · 0.199 raw PPA. Week 7 vs App State: 7 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 42.9% success · -0.174 raw PPA.	18	3.1	0	17.1%	27 / 4.3
Jevon Edwards CFBD athlete 5265325 Week 5 vs Georgia Southern: 2 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.559 raw PPA.	2	2.0	0	1.9%	44 / 3.2
Robby Washington CFBD athlete 4871022 Week 6 vs Marshall: 1 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.296 raw PPA.	1	6.0	0	1.0%	3 / 6.0

Georgia State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 110 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Qwantavius Wiggins CFBD athlete 5244023 Week 5 vs Old Dominion: 15 attempts · 5.8 YPC · 60.0% success · -0.305 raw PPA. Week 7 vs James Madison: 5 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.838 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Arkansas State: 8 attempts · 12.4 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.713 raw PPA.	28	7.2	0	25.5%	53 / 6.6
Lanear McCrary Jr. CFBD athlete 5233868 Week 5 vs Old Dominion: 10 attempts · 2.3 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.262 raw PPA. Week 7 vs James Madison: 9 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 55.6% success · 0.220 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Arkansas State: 4 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.417 raw PPA.	23	2.7	0	20.9%	81 / 4.9
DJ Murray Jr. CFBD athlete 5146273 Week 5 vs Old Dominion: 5 attempts · 5.6 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.397 raw PPA. Week 7 vs James Madison: 9 attempts · 6.2 YPC · 55.6% success · 0.026 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Arkansas State: 8 attempts · 8.5 YPC · 62.5% success · 0.656 raw PPA.	22	6.9	0	20.0%	38 / 6.0
Cameran Brown CFBD athlete 5193926 Week 7 vs James Madison: 9 attempts · 7.9 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.504 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Arkansas State: 5 attempts · -1.8 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.290 raw PPA.	14	4.4	4	12.7%	40 / 4.3
Ayden Pereira CFBD athlete 5083490 Week 5 vs Old Dominion: 5 attempts · 2.6 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.236 raw PPA. Week 7 vs James Madison: 2 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.464 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Arkansas State: 6 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.027 raw PPA.	13	3.4	0	11.8%	16 / 4.7

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	Georgia StateOffense	Coastal CarolinaDefense	Coastal CarolinaOffense	Georgia StateDefense
PPA/play	+0.21 76th	+0.14 26th	+0.14 47th	+0.06 55th
Success rate	47.1% 77th	46.3% 9th	40.7% 29th	38.3% 69th
Explosiveness	1.23 48th	1.13 82nd	1.33 87th	1.23 45th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.13 64th	+0.10 25th	+0.08 45th	+0.03 53rd
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.46 92nd	+0.28 23rd	+0.24 51st	+0.12 69th
Havoc allowed / created	11.8% 88th	15.2% 41st	18.2% 8th	17.3% 72nd

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:01 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:01 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Samer Layous · Georgia State · PAAR 4.21 · 10 attempts
Nico Cavanillas Alti · Coastal Carolina · PAAR 7.10 · 8 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Georgia State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -6.5 · Snapshot spread: -4.5

First locally observed: -6.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence