Week 10 · 2026
James Madison at Southern Miss
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Retrospective prior-game summary; these observations were not verified available before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
James Madison
Window: 2026-10-29 (reported) · 2026-10-22 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-06T01:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Camden Coleman QB 3 games | 41.7% 35 / 84 plays | 36.4% 4 / 11 plays |
| JC Evans QB 3 games | 42.3% 11 / 26 plays | 47.1% 8 / 17 plays |
| Seth Cromwell RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 31.6% 12 / 38 plays |
| George Pettaway RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 51.7% 15 / 29 plays |
| Nick Herman RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 18.2% 2 / 11 plays |
| Michael Scott WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
Southern Miss
Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-06T01:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Landy Lyddy QB 3 games | 26.4% 28 / 106 plays | 44.4% 4 / 9 plays |
| Steven Robinson RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 43.8% 28 / 64 plays |
| Jamarice Wilder RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 15 / 30 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
James Madison -13.5
DraftKings snapshot: Southern Miss +13.5
James Madison by 11.79
1.71 points toward Southern Miss versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Southern Miss.
- Net EPA rating difference: -15.79
- Fitted offset: +5.20
- Fitted home field: -1.20
Reconciles to -11.79 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs 7c5f61552311236a2a84a5f9915ffe111b44f8b9e60f0f1f9cb3b242d0267b81 · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 7e3869c707b7b76606ec586a928cf96ca67519154da87d2db07cc59ac11aab39 · through week 9.
What changed?
7 saved cards for this gameMarket spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved -0.75 points.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | +14.25 | +13.5 | -0.75 |
| Model spread | +11.79 | +11.79 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +2.46 | +1.71 | -0.75 |
Negative spreads favor Southern Miss; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
- Odds source SHA-256
- 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
- Odds source SHA-256
- d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 7c5f61552311236a2a84a5f9915ffe111b44f8b9e60f0f1f9cb3b242d0267b81. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +1.7 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
Southern Miss win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 18%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Southern Miss +13.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 24%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Southern Miss.
- home elo: -12.91 (path difference 5.32)
- home adjusted epa: +9.67 (path difference 8.50)
- home adjusted passing epa: -6.83 (path difference 3.58)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +6.19 (path difference 5.58)
- away elo: -5.17 (path difference 1.18)
- home adjusted success allowed: -5.01 (path difference 0.64)
- home adjusted success: -4.83 (path difference 3.39)
- home adjusted second level yards: +3.72 (path difference 0.48)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: +3.36 (path difference 0.24)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +3.31 (path difference 2.76)
- away adjusted success: -3.16 (path difference 0.94)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +3.11 (path difference 2.33)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -3.07 (path difference 1.65)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +2.99 (path difference 0.54)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: -2.53 (path difference 2.09)
- home adjusted passing down success: +2.47 (path difference 0.53)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +1.90 (path difference 1.37)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +1.89 (path difference 1.37)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -1.86 (path difference 0.14)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -1.79 (path difference 0.08)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +1.77 (path difference 0.16)
- home adjusted line yards: -1.68 (path difference 1.81)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -1.62 (path difference 0.00)
- away adjusted epa: -1.54 (path difference 1.08)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.53 (path difference 0.00)
- home talent: +1.47 (path difference 0.79)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.37 (path difference 1.07)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: -1.25 (path difference 2.58)
- week: -1.19 (path difference 0.30)
- away adjusted line yards: -1.17 (path difference 0.20)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.15 (path difference 0.39)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.99 (path difference 0.39)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.93 (path difference 0.80)
- away conference: +0.88 (path difference 0.69)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.80 (path difference 0.11)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.74 (path difference 0.42)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.74 (path difference 0.76)
- home adjusted open field yards: -0.67 (path difference 0.42)
- home conference: +0.64 (path difference 0.41)
- home adjusted standard down success: +0.45 (path difference 2.45)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.38 (path difference 1.08)
- away talent: -0.38 (path difference 0.49)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.36 (path difference 0.16)
- away adjusted standard down success: +0.35 (path difference 0.30)
- away adjusted passing down success: -0.33 (path difference 0.30)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.30 (path difference 0.48)
- away adjusted success allowed: -0.30 (path difference 0.03)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -0.29 (path difference 0.46)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.25 (path difference 0.48)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.19 (path difference 0.16)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.08 (path difference 0.16)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.07 (path difference 0.02)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.02 (path difference 0.01)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.02 (path difference 0.03)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.01 (path difference 0.31)
Reconciles to 23.79 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 0300e7ec250603fbb810149413ac39c98d709a003d631fd841f1378e2fe793be · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 556e7b799289c89570192e70d0237763eb51b13eb0125e588938e99f9226e8ad · through week 9.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Recent rushing game context unavailable before this matchup.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | Southern MissOffense | James MadisonDefense | James MadisonOffense | Southern MissDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.03 19th | -0.04 88th | +0.21 75th | +0.12 33rd |
| Success rate | 40.9% 36th | 36.4% 85th | 44.8% 66th | 42.6% 33rd |
| Explosiveness | 1.22 46th | 1.19 61st | 1.26 60th | 1.17 72nd |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.04 34th | -0.15 95th | +0.14 72nd | +0.09 28th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.00 6th | +0.15 61st | +0.38 81st | +0.20 48th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 14.2% 59th | 16.2% 57th | 11.5% 92nd | 13.9% 23rd |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Nov 5, 2026, 6:16:39 AM CST · assembled Nov 5, 2026, 6:16:38 AM CST
Adjusted preview unavailable: kickoff reached. Saved evidence is retained.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 5, 2026, 6:16:36 AM CST.
- Morgan Suarez · James Madison · PAAR 1.09 · 17 attempts
- Creighton Wilbanks · Southern Miss · PAAR -8.32 · 9 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Kickoff reached; no retrospective pregame reconstruction
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Southern Miss spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: +15.5 · Snapshot spread: +13.5
First locally observed: +14 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 56.5 · Snapshot total: 58.5
Total · First locally observed: 55.5 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +425 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +390 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -575 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -520 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: +14.5 · Snapshot spread: +13.5
First locally observed: +14.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 57 · Snapshot total: 58
Total · First locally observed: 57 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +475 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +475 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -650 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -650 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Southern Miss
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Sun Belt
James Madison
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 9 rated weeks · Sun Belt
Travel
James Madison travels 769 miles (longer than 75% of road trips, 2017–2025) · 1 time zone crossed · down 1,098 ft in elevation.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
James Madison leads 1–0 in 1 meetings since 2024.
- 2024Southern Miss at James Madison15–32 · James Madison
CFBD matchup data Last 1 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.