Week 10 · 2026

Liberty at New Mexico State

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Liberty

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-22 (reported) · 2026-10-08 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T01:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Deshawn Purdie QB 3 games	45.3% 24 / 53 plays	57.1% 8 / 14 plays
Kam Davis RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	78.3% 18 / 23 plays
Terron Kellman RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	52.9% 9 / 17 plays
Peyton Jones RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	52.9% 9 / 17 plays
Jaylon Coleman RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	57.1% 8 / 14 plays
Ethan Vasko QB 2 games	0.0% 0 / 1 plays	83.3% 5 / 6 plays
Jaylen Henderson QB 2 games	40.0% 2 / 5 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
Kanye Udoh RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	80.0% 4 / 5 plays

Traditional season production · 66 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aidan Vaughan · LB

CFBD athlete 4906884

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 38

Ashton McShane · CB

CFBD athlete 5147185

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 16
interceptions · AVG: 18.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 18

Ashton Whitner · S

CFBD athlete 4880276

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 12

Brenton Williams · DB

CFBD athlete 5076101

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 6
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.5
defensive · TOT: 26

Bryce Randolph · WR

CFBD athlete 5215242

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 0.0
puntReturns · LONG: 0
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 103
receiving · YPR: 12.9
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 12
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Caleb Ryan · TE

CFBD athlete 5162406

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 4.5

Cam Wood · RB

CFBD athlete 5327553

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 23
rushing · YPC: 5.8

Carson Jones · PK

CFBD athlete 5327680

kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 1
kicking · XPA: 1
kicking · XPM: 1

Chase Reeves · PK

CFBD athlete 5086151

kicking · FGA: 11
kicking · FGM: 11
kicking · LONG: 49
kicking · PCT: 1.000
kicking · PTS: 62
kicking · XPA: 30
kicking · XPM: 29

Christian Williams · OL

CFBD athlete 4832770

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Clayton Shepler · WR

CFBD athlete 5220259

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

D-Icey Hopkins · S

CFBD athlete 4869971

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 22

Darius Copeland · WR

CFBD athlete 5162399

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 54
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 169
receiving · YPR: 14.1
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 17
rushing · YPC: 3.4

Derrell Farrar · LB

CFBD athlete 4838682

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 43
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Deshawn Purdie · QB

CFBD athlete 5138131

fumbles · FUM: 5
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 152
passing · COMPLETIONS: 96
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.632
passing · TD: 10
passing · YDS: 1453
passing · YPA: 9.6
rushing · CAR: 45
rushing · LONG: 19
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 134
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Deuce Spurlock · LB

CFBD athlete 4816111

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 26
interceptions · AVG: 17.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 17

Dillano Glaud · LB

CFBD athlete 5216574

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 17

Elijah Hopkins · CB

CFBD athlete 4812377

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 16
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Elijah McKenzie · CB

CFBD athlete 5168843

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Ellis Alloway · LB

CFBD athlete 5290694

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ethan Crisp · DB

CFBD athlete 4918432

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 6

Ethan Vasko · QB

CFBD athlete 4832918

passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 6
passing · YPA: 3.0
rushing · CAR: 11
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 6
rushing · YDS: 24
rushing · YPC: 2.2

Gavin Askew · DL

CFBD athlete 5212640

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Henry Hicks · DL

CFBD athlete 5306938

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Izaiah Guy · S

CFBD athlete 4837159

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 18

Jachin Davis · QB

CFBD athlete 5295943

rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 14
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 9
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Jaleel Parker · S

CFBD athlete 5293946

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Jamal Miles · CB

CFBD athlete 5121665

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Jamari Person · WR

CFBD athlete 5117836

receiving · LONG: 34
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 253
receiving · YPR: 14.9

Jayden Davis · S

CFBD athlete 4896491

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 19
interceptions · AVG: 21.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 21

Jayden Whaley · LB

CFBD athlete 5226462

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Jaylen Henderson · QB

CFBD athlete 4602923

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 18
passing · COMPLETIONS: 9
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 2
passing · YDS: 131
passing · YPA: 7.3
rushing · CAR: 11
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 27
rushing · YPC: 2.5

Jaylin Belford · RB

CFBD athlete 5081710

rushing · CAR: 8
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 53
rushing · YPC: 6.6

Jaylon Coleman · RB

CFBD athlete 5296294

kickReturns · AVG: 41.5
kickReturns · LONG: 48
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 83
receiving · LONG: 56
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 109
receiving · YPR: 12.1
rushing · CAR: 31
rushing · LONG: 34
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 280
rushing · YPC: 9.0

Jeffrey Hairston Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5215246

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Jeremiah Vessel · S

CFBD athlete 4871014

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 25
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Jiquavious Marshall · CB

CFBD athlete 5147366

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 24

Joe Strickland · DL

CFBD athlete 4685537

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 7

Jon Montiero · WR

CFBD athlete 5220265

kickReturns · AVG: 23.1
kickReturns · LONG: 40
kickReturns · NO: 7
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 162
receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 36
receiving · YPR: 9.0

Kam Cullins · DL

CFBD athlete 5200107

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 8

Kam Davis · RB

CFBD athlete 5079364

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 3.0
rushing · CAR: 87
rushing · LONG: 56
rushing · TD: 7
rushing · YDS: 603
rushing · YPC: 6.9

Kanye Udoh · RB

CFBD athlete 5150313

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
rushing · CAR: 12
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 70
rushing · YPC: 5.8

Kelsey Johnson · TE

CFBD athlete 4702826

receiving · LONG: 37
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 92
receiving · YPR: 18.4

Kennedi Bailey · CB

CFBD athlete 5161905

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Kyle Ferm · LB

CFBD athlete 5295339

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 7
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Lorenzo Payne · DL

CFBD athlete 5382935

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 10
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Makai Jackson · WR

CFBD athlete 5088336

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 3.5
puntReturns · LONG: 11
puntReturns · NO: 10
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 35
receiving · LONG: 65
receiving · REC: 29
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 626
receiving · YPR: 21.6

Markus Clark · DL

CFBD athlete 4816091

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 10

Micah Pollard · LB

CFBD athlete 4808746

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 12

Michael Floyde · DL

CFBD athlete 5382947

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2.0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Mike Jarvis · DL

CFBD athlete 4683645

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 10

Myke Gunn · CB

CFBD athlete 5296296

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 10

Nasir Newkirk · WR

CFBD athlete 5218484

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 10
receiving · YPR: 10.0

Nathan Pirolli · DL

CFBD athlete 5162413

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Peyton Jones · RB

CFBD athlete 4923298

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 16
receiving · YPR: 5.3
rushing · CAR: 72
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 330
rushing · YPC: 4.6

Prince Cottonham · CB

CFBD athlete 5382936

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Rashawn Cunningham · WR

CFBD athlete 5224354

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 34
receiving · YPR: 11.3

Ronald Moore · S

CFBD athlete 5148316

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 18
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Sam Crossan · PK

CFBD athlete 5220261

punting · In 20: 11
punting · LONG: 54
punting · NO: 27
punting · TB: 3
punting · YDS: 1089
punting · YPP: 40.3

Samuel Cohen · DL

CFBD athlete 5148600

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
interceptions · AVG: 3.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 3

Terron Kellman · RB

CFBD athlete 4880964

receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 21
receiving · YPR: 21.0
rushing · CAR: 30
rushing · LONG: 43
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 154
rushing · YPC: 5.1

Tre Lawing · LB

CFBD athlete 5081720

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tyler Black · PK

CFBD athlete 5121343

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 3
kicking · XPA: 3
kicking · XPM: 3

Tyrell Gainey · CB

CFBD athlete 5303437

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10

Xavier Reid · DL

CFBD athlete 5265963

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 2

Zeke Wimbush · TE

CFBD athlete 5091845

receiving · LONG: 26
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 103
receiving · YPR: 11.4

New Mexico State

Window: 2026-10-29 (reported) · 2026-10-22 (reported) · 2026-10-07 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-08T01:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Adam Damante QB 3 games	27.4% 20 / 73 plays	33.3% 1 / 3 plays
James Jones RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 31 / 62 plays
Terrell Washington Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	34.5% 10 / 29 plays
Trey Hedden QB 1 games	22.2% 2 / 9 plays	— 0 / 0 plays
Dijon Stanley RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 1 / 3 plays
Lyndon Ravare WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
AJ Williams III WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 58 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Williams III · WR

CFBD athlete 5295460

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 40
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 207
receiving · YPR: 14.8
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -5
rushing · YPC: -5.0

Adam Damante · QB

CFBD athlete 5152503

passing · ATT: 118
passing · COMPLETIONS: 68
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.576
passing · TD: 4
passing · YDS: 638
passing · YPA: 5.4
receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: -4
receiving · YPR: -4.0
rushing · CAR: 13
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: -9
rushing · YPC: -0.7

Amaurey Brooks · CB

CFBD athlete 5225546

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Bradley Vislisel · DE

CFBD athlete 5154587

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Brodrick Malone · WR

CFBD athlete 5207657

receiving · LONG: 33
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 174
receiving · YPR: 11.6

Brody Richter · P

CFBD athlete 5174185

punting · In 20: 11
punting · LONG: 54
punting · NO: 29
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 1171
punting · YPP: 40.4

Carson Su'esu'e · TE

CFBD athlete 5296210

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 10.0
kickReturns · LONG: 10
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 10
receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 23
receiving · YPR: 11.5

Chance Barron · LB

CFBD athlete 5295458

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 24

DJ Cloyd · S

CFBD athlete 5295462

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

David Barker · PK

CFBD athlete 5265366

kicking · FGA: 0
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0
kicking · PTS: 1
kicking · XPA: 1
kicking · XPM: 1

De'Marcus Peters · CB

CFBD athlete 5384715

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 2
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 24
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 45.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 45

Demanuel Brown Jr. · DE

CFBD athlete 5113460

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Dijon Stanley · RB

CFBD athlete 4922995

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
kickReturns · AVG: 40.0
kickReturns · LONG: 40
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 40
receiving · LONG: 15
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 19
receiving · YPR: 9.5
rushing · CAR: 16
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 69
rushing · YPC: 4.3

Drake Williams · LB

CFBD athlete 5265537

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Enzo-Pierre Tayou · DL

CFBD athlete 5220793

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Fa'apaia Fualema · LB

CFBD athlete 5384726

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 17

Gabe Peterson · DE

CFBD athlete 4917309

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 5.5
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 8.5
defensive · TOT: 30

Garrett Stennett · S

CFBD athlete 5280792

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Henry Davis III · DL

CFBD athlete 5220807

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 16

Ilya Uvaydov · PK

CFBD athlete 5088938

kicking · FGA: 7
kicking · FGM: 5
kicking · LONG: 52
kicking · PCT: 0.714
kicking · PTS: 28
kicking · XPA: 15
kicking · XPM: 13

Isaiah Rudison · RB

CFBD athlete 5159150

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 18
rushing · YPC: 6.0

Israel Clark-White · CB

CFBD athlete 5153880

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Jakobe Campbell · S

CFBD athlete 5193263

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12

Jalen Brown · RB

CFBD athlete 5120866

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4
receiving · LONG: 1
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 1
receiving · YPR: 1.0
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 33
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 68
rushing · YPC: 13.6

James Jones · RB

CFBD athlete 5220253

receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 50
receiving · YPR: 6.3
rushing · CAR: 139
rushing · LONG: 54
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 889
rushing · YPC: 6.4

Jason Gwan · DL

CFBD athlete 5229537

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Javon Gillespie · CB

CFBD athlete 5157271

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 14
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Jaylen Stokes · WR

CFBD athlete 5384719

receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 14
receiving · YPR: 7.0

Jeremiah Sandiford · DL

CFBD athlete 5153780

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Jerry Lydiatt · TE

CFBD athlete 5159145

kickReturns · AVG: 4.0
kickReturns · LONG: 4
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 4
receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 4.3

Jordan-Lebron Downey · DL

CFBD athlete 5384732

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Josiah Charles · CB

CFBD athlete 5088793

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 19
interceptions · AVG: 12.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 24

Josiah Thomas · TE

CFBD athlete 5301984

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 36
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 214
receiving · YPR: 12.6

Kaian Roberts-Day · DL

CFBD athlete 4685528

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 10
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Kyah Francone · PK

CFBD athlete 5295467

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
kicking · FGA: 5
kicking · FGM: 2
kicking · LONG: 26
kicking · PCT: 0.400
kicking · PTS: 9
kicking · XPA: 4
kicking · XPM: 3

Latrell Treadwell · DL

CFBD athlete 5304400

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Lorenzo Smith · S

CFBD athlete 5295465

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 23

Luke Moise · OL

CFBD athlete 5225635

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Lyndon Ravare · WR

CFBD athlete 5219270

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 87
receiving · YPR: 10.9
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Myles Libman · WR

CFBD athlete 5156057

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 98
receiving · YPR: 10.9

Nathan Wallin · LB

CFBD athlete 5295466

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Nicolas Sessions · S

CFBD athlete 4430706

defensive · PD: 6
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 38
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 58
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Obinna Okeke · DE

CFBD athlete 5095156

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 15
receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 34
receiving · YPR: 17.0

RJ Chapman · S

CFBD athlete 5165490

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6
interceptions · AVG: 53.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 53

Reeves Baller · DE

CFBD athlete 5125534

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 8

Sone Aupiu · LB

CFBD athlete 5084182

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3.0
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 8.5
defensive · TOT: 38
interceptions · AVG: 4.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 4

TJ Pride · WR

CFBD athlete 5220785

puntReturns · AVG: 8.0
puntReturns · LONG: 12
puntReturns · NO: 3
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 24
receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 44
receiving · YPR: 6.3

Tayden Barnes · S

CFBD athlete 5159136

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Terrell Washington Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5076584

kickReturns · AVG: 56.0
kickReturns · LONG: 56
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 56
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 99
receiving · YPR: 9.0
rushing · CAR: 61
rushing · LONG: 28
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 273
rushing · YPC: 4.5

Terrione Graves · WR

CFBD athlete 5295457

receiving · LONG: 83
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 135
receiving · YPR: 27.0

Tory Gethers · LB

CFBD athlete 5295461

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 27
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5
defensive · TOT: 55

Trey Hedden · QB

CFBD athlete 5224084

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 5
fumbles · LOST: 3
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 124
passing · COMPLETIONS: 65
passing · INT: 6
passing · PCT: 0.524
passing · TD: 5
passing · YDS: 906
passing · YPA: 7.3
rushing · CAR: 18
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -20
rushing · YPC: -1.1

Twan Wilson · CB

CFBD athlete 5384716

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Tyler King · WR

CFBD athlete 4869443

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 15.3
kickReturns · LONG: 23
kickReturns · NO: 8
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 122
puntReturns · AVG: 1.6
puntReturns · LONG: 3
puntReturns · NO: 5
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 8
receiving · LONG: 46
receiving · REC: 23
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 307
receiving · YPR: 13.3
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -12
rushing · YPC: -4.0

Walter Owens · S

CFBD athlete 5295459

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Xavier Rucker · RB

CFBD athlete 5289537

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Zaiden Davis · LB

CFBD athlete 5258013

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 15

Zhakius Thomas · DE

CFBD athlete 5384721

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

Liberty -16.5

DraftKings snapshot: New Mexico State +16.5

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Liberty by 17.01

0.51 points toward Liberty versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward New Mexico State.

Net EPA rating difference: -21.01
Fitted offset: +5.20
Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to -17.01 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs 8e5ea6fd8777ada4610d52286ae1670e65bea10e047fa61004dcd0b2fd00d40e · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 55c911c853304d37e938697270c9f618905e2f2092008e2097945376522111b3 · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: New Mexico State · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	+16.5	+16.5
Model spread	+17.01	+17.01
Model gap	-0.51	-0.51

Negative spreads favor New Mexico State; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 8e5ea6fd8777ada4610d52286ae1670e65bea10e047fa61004dcd0b2fd00d40e. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap -0.5 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

New Mexico State win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 13%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: New Mexico State +16.5
Stacked ensemble: 18%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward New Mexico State.

away adjusted success: -11.28 (path difference 10.92)
home elo: -10.44 (path difference 1.05)
home adjusted epa: +8.98 (path difference 13.76)
home adjusted passing epa: -7.91 (path difference 8.20)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +5.08 (path difference 5.96)
away elo: -5.07 (path difference 3.54)
away adjusted rushing epa: +4.85 (path difference 7.32)
away adjusted epa allowed: -4.28 (path difference 4.84)
away adjusted standard down success: +3.14 (path difference 0.12)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +2.86 (path difference 2.20)
home adjusted second level yards: +2.65 (path difference 0.88)
away adjusted epa: -2.64 (path difference 1.73)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +2.44 (path difference 3.96)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +2.17 (path difference 0.41)
home adjusted success: -1.99 (path difference 2.38)
away talent: -1.59 (path difference 2.11)
away adjusted success allowed: -1.52 (path difference 2.49)
home adjusted rushing epa: -1.38 (path difference 0.71)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.34 (path difference 0.95)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.33 (path difference 2.97)
home adjusted success allowed: +1.20 (path difference 1.19)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.16 (path difference 0.64)
home adjusted epa allowed: -0.98 (path difference 3.14)
home adjusted explosiveness: +0.97 (path difference 0.26)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.88 (path difference 1.58)
away adjusted line yards: -0.86 (path difference 0.66)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.83 (path difference 0.32)
week: -0.72 (path difference 1.21)
home adjusted standard down success: -0.71 (path difference 0.61)
away adjusted second level yards: -0.70 (path difference 1.35)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.64 (path difference 0.05)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.58 (path difference 0.42)
home adjusted open field yards: -0.52 (path difference 0.41)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.51 (path difference 0.63)
away adjusted explosiveness: -0.42 (path difference 0.26)
home adjusted passing down success: +0.32 (path difference 0.83)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.28 (path difference 0.12)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.26 (path difference 0.17)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.25 (path difference 0.30)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.21 (path difference 1.74)
home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.20 (path difference 0.25)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.20 (path difference 0.49)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.18 (path difference 0.29)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.14 (path difference 0.25)
away adjusted passing down success: +0.12 (path difference 0.05)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.12 (path difference 1.35)
away adjusted passing epa: -0.08 (path difference 0.35)
away adjusted open field yards: -0.07 (path difference 0.04)
home adjusted line yards: -0.05 (path difference 0.04)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.04 (path difference 0.03)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.04 (path difference 0.03)
home talent: -0.03 (path difference 0.24)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.03 (path difference 0.00)
home conference: 0.00 (path difference 0.00)
away conference: 0.00 (path difference 0.00)

Reconciles to 17.74 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs e3810afecb8c026eae72b6849d9c7f8541c85402ddd5e47446cc4a334c365df2 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 6f21822ef3801947f61d8f686ffbe5ea4bb11f4f26d2cb8ca3d37d80d2eb4664 · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Liberty

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 110 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Kam Davis CFBD athlete 5079364 Week 6 vs Sam Houston: 10 attempts · 6.7 YPC · 80.0% success · 0.431 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kennesaw State: 9 attempts · 6.6 YPC · 77.8% success · 0.593 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Florida International: 4 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.685 raw PPA.	23	6.3	0	20.9%	87 / 6.9
Terron Kellman CFBD athlete 4880964 Week 6 vs Sam Houston: 8 attempts · 4.6 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.304 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kennesaw State: 5 attempts · 4.8 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.604 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Florida International: 4 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.184 raw PPA.	17	4.5	0	15.5%	30 / 5.1
Peyton Jones CFBD athlete 4923298 Week 6 vs Sam Houston: 2 attempts · 10.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.108 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kennesaw State: 8 attempts · 5.5 YPC · 37.5% success · 0.299 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Florida International: 7 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 57.1% success · -0.001 raw PPA.	17	5.2	0	15.5%	71 / 4.6
Deshawn Purdie CFBD athlete 5138131 Week 6 vs Sam Houston: 7 attempts · 8.1 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.448 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kennesaw State: 4 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.343 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Florida International: 4 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.048 raw PPA.	15	6.7	1	13.6%	42 / 3.2
Jaylon Coleman CFBD athlete 5296294 Week 6 vs Sam Houston: 7 attempts · 13.1 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.481 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kennesaw State: 5 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.281 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Florida International: 2 attempts · 10.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.203 raw PPA.	14	9.6	0	12.7%	30 / 9.2

New Mexico State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 104 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
James Jones CFBD athlete 5220253 Week 6 vs Florida International: 15 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 53.3% success · 0.213 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Sam Houston: 27 attempts · 6.6 YPC · 51.9% success · 0.274 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Jacksonville State: 20 attempts · 5.6 YPC · 45.0% success · 0.330 raw PPA.	62	6.1	0	59.6%	138 / 6.4
Terrell Washington Jr. CFBD athlete 5076584 Week 6 vs Florida International: 7 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 14.3% success · -0.127 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Sam Houston: 12 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 41.7% success · 0.020 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Jacksonville State: 10 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.313 raw PPA.	29	4.6	0	27.9%	60 / 4.3
Adam Damante CFBD athlete 5152503 Week 6 vs Florida International: 4 attempts · -1.7 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.431 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Jacksonville State: 2 attempts · -2.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.202 raw PPA.	6	-2.0	3	5.8%	13 / -0.7
Dijon Stanley CFBD athlete 4922995 Week 6 vs Florida International: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.414 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Jacksonville State: 2 attempts · 7.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.338 raw PPA.	3	6.0	0	2.9%	16 / 4.3
Tyler King CFBD athlete 4869443 Week 8 vs Sam Houston: 1 attempts · -11.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.000 raw PPA.	1	-11.0	0	1.0%	2 / -7.0

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	New Mexico StateOffense	LibertyDefense	LibertyOffense	New Mexico StateDefense
PPA/play	-0.01 8th	-0.06 91st	+0.22 78th	+0.05 60th
Success rate	40.1% 28th	34.9% 91st	49.3% 90th	39.9% 60th
Explosiveness	1.28 71st	1.24 44th	1.14 14th	1.23 47th
Standard-down PPA/play	-0.08 7th	-0.16 96th	+0.20 85th	-0.04 72nd
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.14 26th	+0.13 68th	+0.27 55th	+0.22 41st
Havoc allowed / created	16.2% 32nd	18.1% 79th	12.8% 78th	15.4% 46th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:53 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:53 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Chase Reeves · Liberty · PAAR 7.33 · 11 attempts
Ilya Uvaydov · New Mexico State · PAAR 0.66 · 7 attempts
Kyah Francone · New Mexico State · PAAR -7.09 · 5 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

New Mexico State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +12.5 · Snapshot spread: +16.5

First locally observed: +17.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence