Week 9 · 2026

Mississippi State at Texas

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Mississippi State

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T23:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Parker Puckett QB 3 games	41.7% 25 / 60 plays	61.5% 8 / 13 plays
Kamario Taylor QB 2 games	36.2% 17 / 47 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays
Kolin Wilson RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 11 / 33 plays
Xavier Gayten RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	22.2% 4 / 18 plays
Fluff Bothwell RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	38.9% 7 / 18 plays
J.J. Hill RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 4 / 8 plays
Sam West TE 1 games	100.0% 1 / 1 plays	— 0 / 0 plays
Camden Capehart WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 56 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Rice · LB

CFBD athlete 5167191

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4

Amaree Williams · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5141763

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 38

Amarien Jefferson · CB

CFBD athlete 5294647

defensive · PD: 9
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 38
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Anthony Evans III · WR

CFBD athlete 4907671

puntReturns · AVG: 9.0
puntReturns · LONG: 9
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 9
receiving · LONG: 48
receiving · REC: 53
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 647
receiving · YPR: 12.2
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 0.5

Blake Steen · OL

CFBD athlete 4917051

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Bralan Womack · S

CFBD athlete 5159098

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16

Brinston Williams · RB

CFBD athlete 5085233

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Camden Capehart · WR

CFBD athlete 5246589

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 18
receiving · YPR: 18.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 14
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 20
rushing · YPC: 10.0

Cooper Crosby · RB

CFBD athlete 5280784

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 10
rushing · YPC: 2.5

Darron Reed Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 4870983

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 19

Dealyn Evans · DL

CFBD athlete 5079430

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Derion Gullette · LB

CFBD athlete 4899478

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Dre Riley · S

CFBD athlete 5372129

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 20
interceptions · AVG: 4.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 4

Eddie Kelly · DL

CFBD athlete 5091777

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Ethan Pulliam · P

CFBD athlete 5218831

punting · In 20: 7
punting · LONG: 62
punting · NO: 22
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 889
punting · YPP: 40.4

Fluff Bothwell · RB

CFBD athlete 5220197

receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 104
receiving · YPR: 10.4
rushing · CAR: 91
rushing · LONG: 43
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 514
rushing · YPC: 5.6

Fred Clark · LB

CFBD athlete 5134880

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 30

Gracen Harris · WR

CFBD athlete 5141501

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 7
passing · YPA: 7.0
receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 21
receiving · YPR: 10.5

Isaac Smith · S

CFBD athlete 4870972

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 21

J.J. Hill · RB

CFBD athlete 5216626

rushing · CAR: 15
rushing · LONG: 57
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 147
rushing · YPC: 9.8

Jalen Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 4921320

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 28
interceptions · AVG: 8.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 8

Jameer Grimsley · CB

CFBD athlete 5128051

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Jaray Bledsoe · DL

CFBD athlete 4717429

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 23

Jardin Gilbert · S

CFBD athlete 4603193

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 37

Jatavious Johnson · S

CFBD athlete 5193582

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jayson Jenkins · DL

CFBD athlete 5081391

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Joeseph Skipworth · TE

CFBD athlete 5214449

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 26
receiving · YPR: 6.5

Kalvin Dinkins · DL

CFBD athlete 4784593

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 12

Kamario Taylor · QB

CFBD athlete 5177084

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 159
passing · COMPLETIONS: 104
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.654
passing · TD: 17
passing · YDS: 1460
passing · YPA: 9.2
rushing · CAR: 46
rushing · LONG: 26
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 147
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Kaylib Singleton · CB

CFBD athlete 5141655

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Kelley Jones · CB

CFBD athlete 5076950

defensive · PD: 7
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 24

Kendel Dolby · S

CFBD athlete 5151090

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 32
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2

Kolin Wilson · RB

CFBD athlete 5209427

receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 80
receiving · YPR: 8.0
rushing · CAR: 54
rushing · LONG: 48
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 218
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Kyle Ferrie · PK

CFBD athlete 5092220

kicking · FGA: 8
kicking · FGM: 7
kicking · LONG: 52
kicking · PCT: 0.875
kicking · PTS: 46
kicking · XPA: 25
kicking · XPM: 25

Kyle Johnson · CB

CFBD athlete 5214502

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kyle Rushing · LS

CFBD athlete 5279907

fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

LaKendrick James · LB

CFBD athlete 5294649

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Marcus Williams · S

CFBD athlete 4709685

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 33

Marquis Johnson · WR

CFBD athlete 5076106

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 17.5
kickReturns · LONG: 34
kickReturns · NO: 4
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 70
receiving · LONG: 70
receiving · REC: 18
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 259
receiving · YPR: 14.4

Matt Mayfield · WR

CFBD athlete 5372128

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 9.0

Micah Nickerson · DL

CFBD athlete 5291724

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Oisin Flynn · PK

CFBD athlete 5372134

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Parker Puckett · QB

CFBD athlete 5294646

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 64
passing · COMPLETIONS: 41
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.641
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 368
passing · YPA: 5.8
rushing · CAR: 20
rushing · LONG: 33
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 101
rushing · YPC: 5.1

Quentin Taylor Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5145123

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Riley Williams · TE

CFBD athlete 4871054

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 16
receiving · YPR: 8.0

Sam West · TE

CFBD athlete 4920164

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 18
passing · YPA: 18.0
receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 69
receiving · YPR: 8.6

Sanfrisco Magee · WR

CFBD athlete 5146736

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 43
receiving · REC: 22
receiving · TD: 6
receiving · YDS: 360
receiving · YPR: 16.4

Tanner Duke Johnson · S

CFBD athlete 5085232

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 14

Trevion Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 4869585

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4

Tyler Lockhart · LB

CFBD athlete 5179640

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2.0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 48

Tyshun Willis · DL

CFBD athlete 5205100

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4

Will Whitson · DL

CFBD athlete 4251322

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 17

Xavier Gayten · RB

CFBD athlete 5146781

rushing · CAR: 24
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 87
rushing · YPC: 3.6

Zakari Tillman · LB

CFBD athlete 5085110

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Zion Crumpton · WR

CFBD athlete 5245413

receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 35
receiving · YPR: 17.5

Zion Ragins · WR

CFBD athlete 5079643

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 43
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 209
receiving · YPR: 14.9

Texas

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T23:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Arch Manning QB 3 games	34.4% 31 / 90 plays	56.3% 9 / 16 plays
Raleek Brown RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	38.9% 14 / 36 plays
Daylan Smothers RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	37.5% 9 / 24 plays
Michael Terry III RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 4 / 8 plays
Derrek Cooper RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 4 / 8 plays
Ryan Wingo WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 53 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Alex January · DL

CFBD athlete 5079504

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 12

Arch Manning · QB

CFBD athlete 4870906

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 197
passing · COMPLETIONS: 125
passing · INT: 7
passing · PCT: 0.635
passing · TD: 12
passing · YDS: 1510
passing · YPA: 7.7
rushing · CAR: 56
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 101
rushing · YPC: 1.8

Bo Mascoe · DB

CFBD athlete 5078162

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 17

Brad Spence · LB

CFBD athlete 4921268

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Cam Coleman · WR

CFBD athlete 5079376

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 44
receiving · REC: 20
receiving · TD: 6
receiving · YDS: 334
receiving · YPR: 16.7

Colin Simmons · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5079689

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 10
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 15.5
defensive · TOT: 24
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Colton Vasek · EDGE

CFBD athlete 4918129

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 8

Darius Snow · LB

CFBD athlete 4432552

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Daylan Smothers · RB

CFBD athlete 4871053

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 19.0
kickReturns · LONG: 19
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 19
receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 96
receiving · YPR: 8.0
rushing · CAR: 65
rushing · LONG: 45
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 289
rushing · YPC: 4.4

Derek Williams Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 4871044

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 29

Derrek Cooper · RB

CFBD athlete 5203606

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 28
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 98
rushing · YPC: 3.5

Emaree Winston · TE

CFBD athlete 5141757

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 70
receiving · YPR: 11.7

Emmett Mosley V · WR

CFBD athlete 5079613

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 62
receiving · REC: 21
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 321
receiving · YPR: 15.3

Gianni Spetic · PK

CFBD athlete 5092217

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kicking · FGA: 12
kicking · FGM: 11
kicking · LONG: 52
kicking · PCT: 0.917
kicking · PTS: 59
kicking · XPA: 26
kicking · XPM: 26

Graceson Littleton · DB

CFBD athlete 5198245

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 27
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Hero Kanu · DL

CFBD athlete 4868356

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 20

Ian Geffrard · DL

CFBD athlete 4870759

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 17

Jamarion Carlton · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5209292

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

James Simon · RB

CFBD athlete 5141686

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 19
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Jelani McDonald · DB

CFBD athlete 4922989

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 28
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 54
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Jermaine Bishop Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5161011

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 134
receiving · YPR: 10.3

John Meredith III · DB

CFBD athlete 5446773

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jonah Williams · DB

CFBD athlete 5141717

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Jonathan Cunningham · LB

CFBD athlete 5167177

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jordon Johnson-Rubell · DB

CFBD athlete 5079540

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Josiah Sharma · DL

CFBD athlete 5194304

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Justin Cryer · LB

CFBD athlete 4918434

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 43
interceptions · AVG: 15.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 15

Justus Terry · DL

CFBD athlete 5141732

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Kade Phillips · DB

CFBD athlete 5166881

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 30

Kaliq Lockett · WR

CFBD athlete 5141524

receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: -3
receiving · YPR: -3.0

Karle Lacey Jr. · QB

CFBD athlete 5141509

passing · ATT: 8
passing · COMPLETIONS: 7
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.875
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 63
passing · YPA: 7.9
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 3
rushing · YPC: 1.5

Kobe Black · DB

CFBD athlete 5079331

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Kosi Okpala · LB

CFBD athlete 5207867

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 5

Lance Jackson · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5293823

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 17

Mac Chiumento · P

CFBD athlete 5081075

punting · In 20: 8
punting · LONG: 57
punting · NO: 29
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 1274
punting · YPP: 43.9

Maraad Watson · DL

CFBD athlete 5189756

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 16

Michael Masunas · TE

CFBD athlete 4816104

receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 37
receiving · YPR: 12.3

Michael Terry III · RB

CFBD athlete 5141729

rushing · CAR: 18
rushing · LONG: 19
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 88
rushing · YPC: 4.9

Myron Charles · DL

CFBD athlete 5141407

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 3

Nick Townsend · TE

CFBD athlete 5195299

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 27
receiving · YPR: 6.8

Raleek Brown · RB

CFBD athlete 4685268

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 28
receiving · YPR: 2.8
rushing · CAR: 84
rushing · LONG: 47
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 422
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Rasheem Biles · LB

CFBD athlete 4922981

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 7
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 27
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 53
interceptions · AVG: 1.3
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 4

Rett Andersen · WR

CFBD athlete 5150773

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Richard Wesley · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5273266

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 7

Ryan Niblett · RB

CFBD athlete 4899367

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 14.8
kickReturns · LONG: 21
kickReturns · NO: 5
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 74
puntReturns · AVG: 12.1
puntReturns · LONG: 63
puntReturns · NO: 18
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 217
receiving · LONG: 2
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 2
receiving · YPR: 2.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 10
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Ryan Wingo · WR

CFBD athlete 5218633

receiving · LONG: 50
receiving · REC: 33
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 456
receiving · YPR: 13.8
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -1
rushing · YPC: -0.5

Samari Matthews · DB

CFBD athlete 5159028

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 2

Smith Orogbo · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5201880

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 2

Spencer Shannon · TE

CFBD athlete 4921318

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 24
receiving · YPR: 8.0

Sterling Berkhalter · WR

CFBD athlete 4882122

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 34
receiving · YPR: 11.3

Warren Roberson · DB

CFBD athlete 4950398

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Zina Umeozulu · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5079732

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 17

Zion Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 5141765

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Mississippi State +20.5

C1 in-sample cover rate 61% against the spread over 106 games (2017–2025) · rule chosen on these games · historical reference, not a cover probability.

Comparison line · CFBD median

Texas -20.5

DraftKings snapshot: Texas -20.5

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Texas by 6.50

14.00 points toward Mississippi State versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Texas.

Fitted offset: +5.87
Net EPA rating difference: +2.56
Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to 6.50 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 65467b3bd4a144db0da8d9c6e24767cdccf2fbc437a6a2de300a9d32d7ee3886 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 173257b7ae801876bd985b5b3977654ae9507b6e6583bc4726dbc1ea340fc278 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Texas · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	-20.5	-20.5
Model spread	-6.5	-6.5
Model gap	-14.0	-14.0

Negative spreads favor Texas; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 65467b3bd4a144db0da8d9c6e24767cdccf2fbc437a6a2de300a9d32d7ee3886. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Mississippi State +20.5

Model gap -14.0 points

C1 rule: 14+ point gaps in weeks 6–9, 12–14 in weeks 10–16. Positive gaps favor Texas.

Win probabilities · separate sources

Texas win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 92%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Texas -20.5
Stacked ensemble: 77%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Texas.

home elo: +19.14 (path difference 4.60)
home adjusted success allowed: +14.99 (path difference 2.97)
away adjusted success: -13.30 (path difference 2.84)
home adjusted epa allowed: -7.86 (path difference 4.49)
home talent: +7.04 (path difference 3.31)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +6.45 (path difference 7.83)
away talent: -4.65 (path difference 1.33)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: -4.50 (path difference 0.78)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.41 (path difference 4.34)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -4.28 (path difference 0.95)
home adjusted success: +4.17 (path difference 3.78)
home adjusted epa: +4.02 (path difference 6.14)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +3.62 (path difference 5.87)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +3.61 (path difference 2.67)
away adjusted rushing epa: +3.24 (path difference 3.78)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -3.11 (path difference 1.30)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +3.02 (path difference 0.58)
away conference: +2.60 (path difference 2.27)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.51 (path difference 3.37)
home adjusted open field yards: -2.26 (path difference 2.35)
home conference: +2.26 (path difference 1.32)
home adjusted line yards: -2.18 (path difference 1.18)
away adjusted standard down success: +1.98 (path difference 0.84)
away elo: +1.92 (path difference 1.48)
away adjusted epa: -1.91 (path difference 2.12)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.79 (path difference 1.56)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.61 (path difference 0.07)
home adjusted standard down success: +1.59 (path difference 0.13)
home adjusted second level yards: +1.55 (path difference 0.17)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -1.55 (path difference 3.79)
home adjusted rushing epa: -1.49 (path difference 0.85)
home adjusted passing down success: -1.24 (path difference 1.48)
away adjusted line yards: -1.19 (path difference 1.34)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +1.01 (path difference 2.23)
away adjusted success allowed: +0.95 (path difference 0.12)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.94 (path difference 0.36)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.91 (path difference 0.08)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.89 (path difference 0.10)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.80 (path difference 0.87)
away adjusted epa allowed: -0.79 (path difference 0.59)
away adjusted explosiveness: +0.76 (path difference 0.52)
home adjusted explosiveness: +0.60 (path difference 0.44)
away adjusted open field yards: -0.53 (path difference 1.19)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.46 (path difference 0.16)
home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.41 (path difference 0.14)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.33 (path difference 0.21)
away adjusted second level yards: -0.31 (path difference 1.49)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.24 (path difference 0.48)
home adjusted passing epa: -0.24 (path difference 0.46)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.16 (path difference 0.10)
away adjusted passing down success: -0.15 (path difference 0.19)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.12 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.10 (path difference 0.64)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.08 (path difference 0.05)
week: +0.04 (path difference 0.97)

Reconciles to 76.70 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 9ec2a1d0a4ab8a408532577fc1cea940282b5e08930282c88d6d9e83f59b63e6 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 87b15e8e60315a01b377f705e0d60ce7da090b2f10315d3b703533055e04575c · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Mississippi State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 104 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Kolin Wilson CFBD athlete 5209427 Week 5 vs Alabama: 10 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 30.0% success · -0.088 raw PPA. Week 7 vs LSU: 18 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 38.9% success · 0.006 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Oklahoma: 5 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.302 raw PPA.	33	3.5	0	31.7%	53 / 4.1
Xavier Gayten CFBD athlete 5146781 Week 5 vs Alabama: 10 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 10.0% success · -0.232 raw PPA. Week 7 vs LSU: 8 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 37.5% success · -0.097 raw PPA.	18	2.6	0	17.3%	24 / 3.6
Fluff Bothwell CFBD athlete 5220197 Week 5 vs Alabama: 1 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.933 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Oklahoma: 17 attempts · 6.5 YPC · 41.2% success · 0.226 raw PPA.	18	6.2	0	17.3%	90 / 5.7
Parker Puckett CFBD athlete 5294646 Week 7 vs LSU: 10 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 85.7% success · 0.101 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Oklahoma: 7 attempts · 5.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.731 raw PPA.	17	4.5	4	16.3%	19 / 5.3
Kamario Taylor CFBD athlete 5177084 Week 5 vs Alabama: 6 attempts · -4.3 YPC · 100.0% success · 2.344 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Oklahoma: 3 attempts · -4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.000 raw PPA.	9	-4.2	8	8.7%	45 / 3.2

Texas

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 102 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Raleek Brown CFBD athlete 4685268 Week 6 vs Oklahoma: 5 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.020 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida: 8 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 37.5% success · -0.044 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Ole Miss: 23 attempts · 6.8 YPC · 39.1% success · 0.161 raw PPA.	36	6.3	0	35.3%	83 / 4.9
Arch Manning CFBD athlete 4870906 Week 6 vs Oklahoma: 7 attempts · 2.9 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.271 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida: 10 attempts · 0.0 YPC · 60.0% success · -0.348 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Ole Miss: 8 attempts · 0.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.095 raw PPA.	25	0.9	9	24.5%	54 / 1.8
Daylan Smothers CFBD athlete 4871053 Week 6 vs Oklahoma: 12 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.069 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Florida: 12 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 41.7% success · -0.407 raw PPA.	24	3.8	0	23.5%	65 / 4.4
Michael Terry III CFBD athlete 5141729 Week 8 vs Ole Miss: 8 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.179 raw PPA.	8	5.1	0	7.8%	18 / 4.9
Derrek Cooper CFBD athlete 5203606 Week 6 vs Oklahoma: 8 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.055 raw PPA.	8	5.1	0	7.8%	28 / 3.5

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	TexasOffense	Mississippi StateDefense	Mississippi StateOffense	TexasDefense
PPA/play	+0.06 27th	+0.13 31st	+0.15 56th	-0.01 82nd
Success rate	42.6% 46th	43.2% 25th	46.0% 69th	34.7% 89th
Explosiveness	1.19 31st	1.13 85th	1.24 53rd	1.13 85th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.01 22nd	+0.09 30th	+0.13 64th	-0.09 82nd
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.19 35th	+0.24 35th	+0.21 39th	+0.14 63rd
Havoc allowed / created	18.3% 7th	15.5% 47th	15.5% 41st	19.8% 93rd

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:37 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:37 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Gianni Spetic · Texas · PAAR 6.32 · 12 attempts
Kyle Ferrie · Mississippi State · PAAR 2.53 · 8 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Texas spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -20.5 · Snapshot spread: -20.5

First locally observed: -20.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 50.5 · Snapshot total: 50.5

Total · First locally observed: 50.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -1350 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -1350 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +800 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +800 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: -21 · Snapshot spread: -20.5

First locally observed: -21 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 50.5 · Snapshot total: 50.5

Total · First locally observed: 50.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -1800 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -1800 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +850 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +850 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Texas

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 8 rated weeks · SEC

80th FBS percentile

Mississippi State

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 8 rated weeks · SEC

68th FBS percentile

Travel

Mississippi State travels 568 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change.

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

Texas leads 4–2 in 6 meetings since 1921.

2025Texas at Mississippi State45–38 · Texas
2024Mississippi State at Texas13–35 · Texas
1998 · NMississippi State at Texas11–38 · Texas
1992Mississippi State at Texas28–10 · Mississippi State
1991Texas at Mississippi State6–13 · Mississippi State
1921Mississippi State at Texas7–54 · Texas

CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.