Week 10 · 2026

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Vanderbilt

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T21:15:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Jared Curtis QB 3 games	43.8% 46 / 105 plays	60.0% 9 / 15 plays
Makhilyn Young RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	28.6% 6 / 21 plays
Sedrick Alexander RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	26.3% 5 / 19 plays
Jamezell Lassiter RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	55.6% 5 / 9 plays
Blaze Berlowitz QB 1 games	20.0% 1 / 5 plays	100.0% 3 / 3 plays
Evan Hampton RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	25.0% 1 / 4 plays
Junior Sherrill WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 52 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Austin Howard · LB

CFBD athlete 5294064

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
puntReturns · AVG: 25.0
puntReturns · LONG: 25
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 25

Blaze Berlowitz · QB

CFBD athlete 5121691

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 53
passing · COMPLETIONS: 28
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.528
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 386
passing · YPA: 7.3
receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 0
receiving · YPR: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 25
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 111
rushing · YPC: 4.4

Bradley Mann · DL

CFBD athlete 4837384

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 19

Brian Allen · EDGE

CFBD athlete 4881838

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Brock Taylor · PK

CFBD athlete 5087247

kicking · FGA: 9
kicking · FGM: 7
kicking · LONG: 47
kicking · PCT: 0.778
kicking · PTS: 42
kicking · XPA: 21
kicking · XPM: 21

Bryan Longwell · LB

CFBD athlete 5089321

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 28
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 51

Bryce Cowan · LB

CFBD athlete 4837351

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 35
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Brycen Coleman · WR

CFBD athlete 5114594

receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 44
receiving · YPR: 11.0

C.J. Heard · S

CFBD athlete 5079471

defensive · PD: 6
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 43
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 62
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Carson Lawrence · S

CFBD athlete 5148659

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 6

Cayden Daniels · CB

CFBD athlete 5215250

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 22
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 8.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 8

Claiborne Richards · WR

CFBD athlete 5150895

receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 4
receiving · YPR: 4.0

Cole Adams · WR

CFBD athlete 4918121

puntReturns · AVG: 11.0
puntReturns · LONG: 11
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 11
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 58
receiving · YPR: 11.6

Cole Spence · TE

CFBD athlete 4799991

receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 121
receiving · YPR: 11.0

Davin Chandler · S

CFBD athlete 5216544

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 22

Dontae Carter · S

CFBD athlete 5147216

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
kickReturns · AVG: 14.0
kickReturns · LONG: 14
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 14

Edwin Kolenge · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5080692

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 18

Evan Hampton · RB

CFBD athlete 5245128

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 17.5
kickReturns · LONG: 23
kickReturns · NO: 4
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 70
receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: -1
receiving · YPR: -1.0
rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 18
rushing · YPC: 2.6

Glenn Seabrooks · DL

CFBD athlete 5139855

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 19

Hayden Bray · DL

CFBD athlete 4875860

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Ja'Cory Thomas · WR

CFBD athlete 5295920

receiving · LONG: 39
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 230
receiving · YPR: 15.3

Jack Elliott · QB

CFBD athlete 5209910

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Jailen Ruth · S

CFBD athlete 5078548

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jalen Gilbert · S

CFBD athlete 5085312

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Jamezell Lassiter · RB

CFBD athlete 5218655

receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 14
receiving · YPR: 4.7
rushing · CAR: 23
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 88
rushing · YPC: 3.8

Jamison Curtis · LB

CFBD athlete 5146810

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jared Curtis · QB

CFBD athlete 5158948

fumbles · FUM: 5
fumbles · LOST: 3
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 197
passing · COMPLETIONS: 128
passing · INT: 8
passing · PCT: 0.650
passing · TD: 8
passing · YDS: 1489
passing · YPA: 7.6
rushing · CAR: 63
rushing · LONG: 19
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 150
rushing · YPC: 2.4

Jaylon Stone · DL

CFBD athlete 5153504

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Jayvontay Conner · TE

CFBD athlete 5041960

receiving · LONG: 31
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 166
receiving · YPR: 11.1

Jordan Matthews · CB

CFBD athlete 4870911

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Josiah Broxton · LB

CFBD athlete 5198326

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
puntReturns · AVG: 27.0
puntReturns · LONG: 27
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 27

Junior Sherrill · WR

CFBD athlete 5078165

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 23.8
kickReturns · LONG: 33
kickReturns · NO: 6
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 143
receiving · LONG: 60
receiving · REC: 49
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 706
receiving · YPR: 14.4
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 3
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 2.5

Kaden Schickel · LS

CFBD athlete 4877825

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Kayleb Barnett · WR

CFBD athlete 5257993

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 36
receiving · YPR: 5.1
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 2
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Khalil Poteat · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5219879

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Makhilyn Young · RB

CFBD athlete 4912302

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 76
receiving · YPR: 7.6
rushing · CAR: 55
rushing · LONG: 34
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 214
rushing · YPC: 3.9

Martel Hight · CB

CFBD athlete 4870744

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 19
interceptions · AVG: 2.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 2
puntReturns · AVG: 13.9
puntReturns · LONG: 45
puntReturns · NO: 8
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 111

Mason Carter · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5146882

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4
kickReturns · AVG: 1.0
kickReturns · LONG: 1
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 1

Mason Lewis · S

CFBD athlete 5281576

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 31

Maurice Veney · TE

CFBD athlete 5169215

kickReturns · AVG: 13.0
kickReturns · LONG: 13
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 13
receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 65
receiving · YPR: 32.5

Michael Diatta · DT

CFBD athlete 4703023

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Miles Capers · EDGE

CFBD athlete 4594336

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6
defensive · TOT: 20
interceptions · AVG: 1.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 1

Nicholas Rinaldi · LB

CFBD athlete 5089173

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 3.0
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.0
defensive · TOT: 52

Ricardo Jones · S

CFBD athlete 5079544

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 36
kickReturns · AVG: 6.0
kickReturns · LONG: 6
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 6

Sedrick Alexander · RB

CFBD athlete 5030333

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 123
receiving · YPR: 8.8
rushing · CAR: 64
rushing · LONG: 18
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 274
rushing · YPC: 4.3

Talan Carter · DL

CFBD athlete 5226567

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 19

Tristen Brown · WR

CFBD athlete 5149910

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 33
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 176
receiving · YPR: 11.7

Tyler Ebel · P

CFBD athlete 5088418

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
punting · In 20: 11
punting · LONG: 64
punting · NO: 30
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 1387
punting · YPP: 46.2

Vanzale Hinton · S

CFBD athlete 5222251

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Walter Taylor · TE

CFBD athlete 4915713

receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 67
receiving · YPR: 16.8

Whit Muschamp · QB

CFBD athlete 5126473

passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 18
passing · YPA: 9.0
receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 8
receiving · YPR: 8.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -3
rushing · YPC: -1.5

Yilanan Ouattara · DL

CFBD athlete 4911912

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 16

Mississippi State

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T21:15:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Parker Puckett QB 3 games	33.3% 23 / 69 plays	58.8% 10 / 17 plays
Fluff Bothwell RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 11 / 33 plays
Kolin Wilson RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	29.6% 8 / 27 plays
AJ Swann QB 1 games	53.3% 8 / 15 plays	0.0% 0 / 3 plays
J.J. Hill RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	40.0% 4 / 10 plays
Xavier Gayten RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	37.5% 3 / 8 plays
Kamario Taylor QB 1 games	0.0% 0 / 8 plays	— 0 / 0 plays
Anthony Evans III WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 57 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Rice · LB

CFBD athlete 5167191

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

AJ Swann · QB

CFBD athlete 5081405

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 15
passing · COMPLETIONS: 12
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.800
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 97
passing · YPA: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -2
rushing · YPC: -0.5

Amaree Williams · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5141763

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2.0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 41

Amarien Jefferson · CB

CFBD athlete 5294647

defensive · PD: 9
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 41
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Anthony Evans III · WR

CFBD athlete 4907671

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 3.0
puntReturns · LONG: 9
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 6
receiving · LONG: 48
receiving · REC: 56
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 666
receiving · YPR: 11.9
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -9
rushing · YPC: -2.3

Blake Steen · OL

CFBD athlete 4917051

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Bralan Womack · S

CFBD athlete 5159098

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 19

Brinston Williams · RB

CFBD athlete 5085233

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Camden Capehart · WR

CFBD athlete 5246589

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 18
receiving · YPR: 18.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 14
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 20
rushing · YPC: 10.0

Cooper Crosby · RB

CFBD athlete 5280784

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 10
rushing · YPC: 2.5

Darron Reed Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 4870983

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 22

Dealyn Evans · DL

CFBD athlete 5079430

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 8

Derion Gullette · LB

CFBD athlete 4899478

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Dre Riley · S

CFBD athlete 5372129

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 21
interceptions · AVG: 4.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 4

Eddie Kelly · DL

CFBD athlete 5091777

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Ethan Pulliam · P

CFBD athlete 5218831

punting · In 20: 10
punting · LONG: 62
punting · NO: 29
punting · TB: 4
punting · YDS: 1226
punting · YPP: 42.3

Fluff Bothwell · RB

CFBD athlete 5220197

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 117
receiving · YPR: 9.0
rushing · CAR: 108
rushing · LONG: 43
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 563
rushing · YPC: 5.2

Fred Clark · LB

CFBD athlete 5134880

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 37

Gracen Harris · WR

CFBD athlete 5141501

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 7
passing · YPA: 7.0
receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 21
receiving · YPR: 10.5

Isaac Smith · S

CFBD athlete 4870972

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 21

J.J. Hill · RB

CFBD athlete 5216626

rushing · CAR: 20
rushing · LONG: 57
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 162
rushing · YPC: 8.1

Jalen Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 4921320

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 28
interceptions · AVG: 8.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 8

Jameer Grimsley · CB

CFBD athlete 5128051

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Jaray Bledsoe · DL

CFBD athlete 4717429

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3.5
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6.5
defensive · TOT: 25

Jardin Gilbert · S

CFBD athlete 4603193

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 27
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 42

Jatavious Johnson · S

CFBD athlete 5193582

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jayson Jenkins · DL

CFBD athlete 5081391

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Joeseph Skipworth · TE

CFBD athlete 5214449

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 26
receiving · YPR: 6.5

Kalvin Dinkins · DL

CFBD athlete 4784593

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Kamario Taylor · QB

CFBD athlete 5177084

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 159
passing · COMPLETIONS: 104
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.654
passing · TD: 17
passing · YDS: 1460
passing · YPA: 9.2
rushing · CAR: 46
rushing · LONG: 26
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 147
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Kaylib Singleton · CB

CFBD athlete 5141655

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Kelley Jones · CB

CFBD athlete 5076950

defensive · PD: 7
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 27

Kendel Dolby · S

CFBD athlete 5151090

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 36
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2

Kolin Wilson · RB

CFBD athlete 5209427

receiving · LONG: 18
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 85
receiving · YPR: 7.7
rushing · CAR: 58
rushing · LONG: 48
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 230
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Kyle Ferrie · PK

CFBD athlete 5092220

kicking · FGA: 10
kicking · FGM: 8
kicking · LONG: 52
kicking · PCT: 0.800
kicking · PTS: 49
kicking · XPA: 25
kicking · XPM: 25

Kyle Johnson · CB

CFBD athlete 5214502

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kyle Rushing · LS

CFBD athlete 5279907

fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

LaKendrick James · LB

CFBD athlete 5294649

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12

Marcus Williams · S

CFBD athlete 4709685

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 38

Marquis Johnson · WR

CFBD athlete 5076106

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 17.5
kickReturns · LONG: 34
kickReturns · NO: 4
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 70
receiving · LONG: 70
receiving · REC: 24
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 320
receiving · YPR: 13.3

Matt Mayfield · WR

CFBD athlete 5372128

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 9.0

Micah Nickerson · DL

CFBD athlete 5291724

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Oisin Flynn · PK

CFBD athlete 5372134

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Parker Puckett · QB

CFBD athlete 5294646

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 74
passing · COMPLETIONS: 44
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.595
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 390
passing · YPA: 5.3
rushing · CAR: 29
rushing · LONG: 33
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 105
rushing · YPC: 3.6

Quentin Taylor Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5145123

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Riley Williams · TE

CFBD athlete 4871054

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 16
receiving · YPR: 8.0

Sam West · TE

CFBD athlete 4920164

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 18
passing · YPA: 18.0
receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 69
receiving · YPR: 8.6

Sanfrisco Magee · WR

CFBD athlete 5146736

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 43
receiving · REC: 23
receiving · TD: 6
receiving · YDS: 376
receiving · YPR: 16.3

Tanner Duke Johnson · S

CFBD athlete 5085232

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 17

Trevion Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 4869585

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4

Tyler Lockhart · LB

CFBD athlete 5179640

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2.0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 48

Tyshun Willis · DL

CFBD athlete 5205100

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4

Will Whitson · DL

CFBD athlete 4251322

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 18

Xavier Gayten · RB

CFBD athlete 5146781

rushing · CAR: 24
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 87
rushing · YPC: 3.6

Zakari Tillman · LB

CFBD athlete 5085110

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 13
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Zion Crumpton · WR

CFBD athlete 5245413

receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 35
receiving · YPR: 17.5

Zion Ragins · WR

CFBD athlete 5079643

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 43
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 214
receiving · YPR: 14.3

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Mississippi State -3

EPA-OLS history for 7-14 point gaps: 46% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 97 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

CFBD median · DraftKings quote matches

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Mississippi State by 12.68

9.68 points toward Mississippi State versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Mississippi State.

Net EPA rating difference: +8.68
Fitted offset: +5.20
Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to 12.68 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs b9b7f52cc9bc87adc1657b938e0148cde317c69c2987fc36e262305169842707 · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 2c404a3e686cca129dfa681e9a3b3abb0c870d9c9188c81f15d4338b41af706c · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Mississippi State · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	-3.0	-3.0
Model spread	-12.68	-12.68
Model gap	+9.68	+9.68

Negative spreads favor Mississippi State; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: b9b7f52cc9bc87adc1657b938e0148cde317c69c2987fc36e262305169842707. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Mississippi State -3

Model gap +9.7 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Mississippi State.

Win probabilities · separate sources

Mississippi State win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 58%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Mississippi State -3
Stacked ensemble: 83%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Mississippi State.

home adjusted success: +8.70 (path difference 5.98)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +5.14 (path difference 8.95)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +4.84 (path difference 3.15)
away adjusted epa: +4.14 (path difference 5.11)
home talent: +3.88 (path difference 2.91)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +3.02 (path difference 0.40)
away talent: -2.72 (path difference 0.44)
away elo: +2.72 (path difference 1.48)
home adjusted success allowed: +2.68 (path difference 0.40)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -2.50 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted standard down success: +2.34 (path difference 0.65)
away conference: +2.30 (path difference 2.87)
away adjusted success allowed: +2.11 (path difference 0.87)
home conference: +2.08 (path difference 1.68)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.01 (path difference 0.53)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.79 (path difference 0.43)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.76 (path difference 1.56)
away adjusted passing down success: -1.73 (path difference 0.20)
home adjusted line yards: +1.68 (path difference 1.86)
home adjusted explosiveness: +1.36 (path difference 1.68)
home adjusted second level yards: +1.33 (path difference 1.22)
away adjusted explosiveness: +1.33 (path difference 0.37)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.16 (path difference 0.07)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +1.12 (path difference 0.97)
home elo: +1.08 (path difference 1.25)
home adjusted epa allowed: -1.08 (path difference 0.56)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +1.07 (path difference 1.55)
away adjusted second level yards: +1.06 (path difference 0.52)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.05 (path difference 0.47)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.00 (path difference 0.06)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.95 (path difference 0.79)
week: -0.94 (path difference 0.86)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.82 (path difference 0.90)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.80 (path difference 1.30)
away adjusted rushing epa: -0.76 (path difference 0.93)
away adjusted epa allowed: -0.65 (path difference 0.63)
away adjusted open field yards: -0.55 (path difference 3.18)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.50 (path difference 0.18)
home adjusted epa: +0.48 (path difference 0.69)
home adjusted open field yards: -0.43 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted line yards: -0.40 (path difference 0.62)
home adjusted passing epa: -0.40 (path difference 0.36)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.32 (path difference 0.04)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.31 (path difference 0.08)
away adjusted passing epa: -0.30 (path difference 0.15)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.25 (path difference 0.76)
away adjusted success: -0.20 (path difference 0.01)
away adjusted standard down success: -0.20 (path difference 0.03)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.19 (path difference 1.13)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.19 (path difference 1.06)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.17 (path difference 0.33)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.14 (path difference 0.32)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.14 (path difference 0.82)
home adjusted rushing epa: +0.05 (path difference 0.27)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.01 (path difference 0.02)

Reconciles to 83.06 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 2a525f235bd496c2f367ea8d11f36f40de2eb830b19aa718c4e02ce0715abf6e · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast f980c935954f90dacc35f0b7c1f76cca05e28c538ce3103b36a45be092027d46 · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Vanderbilt

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 79 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Jared Curtis CFBD athlete 5158948 Week 6 vs Ole Miss: 6 attempts · -0.3 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.904 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Arkansas: 8 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.114 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kentucky: 8 attempts · 0.8 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.161 raw PPA.	22	0.8	7	27.8%	60 / 2.8
Makhilyn Young CFBD athlete 4912302 Week 6 vs Ole Miss: 9 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 22.2% success · -0.159 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Arkansas: 9 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 44.4% success · 0.119 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kentucky: 3 attempts · -0.7 YPC · 0.0% success · -1.188 raw PPA.	21	3.8	0	26.6%	54 / 3.8
Sedrick Alexander CFBD athlete 5030333 Week 6 vs Ole Miss: 6 attempts · 2.2 YPC · 16.7% success · -0.865 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Arkansas: 10 attempts · 5.7 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.253 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kentucky: 3 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.468 raw PPA.	19	3.9	0	24.1%	63 / 4.3
Jamezell Lassiter CFBD athlete 5218655 Week 6 vs Ole Miss: 6 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.235 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Arkansas: 2 attempts · 0.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.926 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Kentucky: 1 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.737 raw PPA.	9	3.0	0	11.4%	23 / 3.8
Evan Hampton CFBD athlete 5245128 Week 6 vs Ole Miss: 4 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.060 raw PPA.	4	4.0	0	5.1%	7 / 2.6

Mississippi State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 113 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Fluff Bothwell CFBD athlete 5220197 Week 8 vs Oklahoma: 17 attempts · 6.5 YPC · 41.2% success · 0.226 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Texas: 16 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.178 raw PPA.	33	5.0	0	29.2%	106 / 5.4
Kolin Wilson CFBD athlete 5209427 Week 7 vs LSU: 18 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 38.9% success · 0.006 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Oklahoma: 5 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.302 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Texas: 4 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.336 raw PPA.	27	3.7	0	23.9%	57 / 4.1
Parker Puckett CFBD athlete 5294646 Week 7 vs LSU: 10 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 85.7% success · 0.101 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Oklahoma: 7 attempts · 5.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.731 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Texas: 9 attempts · 0.4 YPC · 50.0% success · 1.145 raw PPA.	26	3.1	9	23.0%	28 / 3.8
J.J. Hill CFBD athlete 5216626 Week 7 vs LSU: 5 attempts · 4.6 YPC · 80.0% success · 0.280 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Texas: 5 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.233 raw PPA.	10	3.8	0	8.8%	20 / 8.1
Xavier Gayten CFBD athlete 5146781 Week 7 vs LSU: 8 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 37.5% success · -0.097 raw PPA.	8	4.5	0	7.1%	24 / 3.6

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	Mississippi StateOffense	VanderbiltDefense	VanderbiltOffense	Mississippi StateDefense
PPA/play	+0.11 43rd	+0.16 19th	+0.06 26th	+0.13 28th
Success rate	43.5% 61st	45.1% 12th	40.3% 28th	42.6% 31st
Explosiveness	1.23 48th	1.15 78th	1.30 74th	1.15 79th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.07 43rd	+0.16 12th	-0.01 21st	+0.10 26th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.20 37th	+0.17 57th	+0.22 43rd	+0.22 39th
Havoc allowed / created	16.3% 30th	13.8% 22nd	16.5% 28th	15.6% 49th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:34 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:34 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Brock Taylor · Vanderbilt · PAAR 3.47 · 9 attempts
Kyle Ferrie · Mississippi State · PAAR 0.69 · 10 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Mississippi State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -3 · Snapshot spread: -3

First locally observed: -3 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence