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Week 9 · 2026

Baylor at UCF

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Baylor

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-04 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-30T23:30:00+00:00.

PlayerPassingRushing
D.J. Lagway QB
3 games
37.1%
49 / 132 plays
50.0%
6 / 12 plays
Caden Knighten RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
21.7%
5 / 23 plays
Dawson Pendergrass RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
23.8%
5 / 21 plays
Ryelan Morris RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
35.0%
7 / 20 plays
Michael Turner RB
2 games
—
0 / 0 plays
38.9%
7 / 18 plays
Nate Bennett QB
1 games
50.0%
1 / 2 plays
—
0 / 0 plays
Traditional season production · 56 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Anthony Crenshaw · LB

CFBD athlete 5153853

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Bo Onu · S

CFBD athlete 5207658

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
3
defensive · SOLO
12
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
4
defensive · TOT
16
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Caden Knighten · RB

CFBD athlete 5295723

kickReturns · AVG
26.0
kickReturns · LONG
36
kickReturns · NO
3
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
78
receiving · LONG
11
receiving · REC
5
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
25
receiving · YPR
5.0
rushing · CAR
67
rushing · LONG
75
rushing · TD
2
rushing · YDS
303
rushing · YPC
4.5
Colby McCalister · S

CFBD athlete 4816073

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
18
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
20
D.J. Lagway · QB

CFBD athlete 5079555

fumbles · FUM
2
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
217
passing · COMPLETIONS
113
passing · INT
4
passing · PCT
0.521
passing · TD
9
passing · YDS
1352
passing · YPA
6.2
rushing · CAR
26
rushing · LONG
20
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
19
rushing · YPC
0.7
Daniel Cobbs · S

CFBD athlete 5151076

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
3
defensive · SOLO
15
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
4
defensive · TOT
21
Dawson Pendergrass · RB

CFBD athlete 4921517

receiving · LONG
19
receiving · REC
6
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
30
receiving · YPR
5.0
rushing · CAR
93
rushing · LONG
17
rushing · TD
2
rushing · YDS
332
rushing · YPC
3.6
DeBraun Hampton · WR

CFBD athlete 5222227

receiving · LONG
10
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
10
receiving · YPR
10.0
Devin Turner · S

CFBD athlete 4833373

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
17
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
23
Devon Jordan · CB

CFBD athlete 5147178

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
22
defensive · TD
1
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
30
interceptions · AVG
16.0
interceptions · INT
3
interceptions · TD
1
interceptions · YDS
48
Devonte Tezino · DL

CFBD athlete 4912039

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
4
Drelon Miller · WR

CFBD athlete 5079612

receiving · LONG
23
receiving · REC
5
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
57
receiving · YPR
11.4
Edward Griffin · QB

CFBD athlete 5213685

passing · ATT
6
passing · COMPLETIONS
2
passing · INT
1
passing · PCT
0.333
passing · TD
0
passing · YDS
19
passing · YPA
3.2
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
2
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
2
rushing · YPC
2.0
Garrick Ponder · DE

CFBD athlete 5093198

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
3.5
defensive · SOLO
14
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
7.5
defensive · TOT
20
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
puntReturns · AVG
7.0
puntReturns · LONG
7
puntReturns · NO
1
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
7
Gavin Freeman · WR

CFBD athlete 4896289

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
receiving · LONG
38
receiving · REC
58
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
678
receiving · YPR
11.7
HD Davis · RB

CFBD athlete 5291009

rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
1
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
1
rushing · YPC
1.0
Hawkins Polley · TE

CFBD athlete 4910222

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
28
receiving · REC
8
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
107
receiving · YPR
13.4
Hosea Wheeler · DL

CFBD athlete 5085436

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
9
JJ Shelton · LB

CFBD athlete 5167190

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
1
Jackson Blackwell · DL

CFBD athlete 5205092

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Jadon Porter · WR

CFBD athlete 5079627

receiving · LONG
33
receiving · REC
12
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
199
receiving · YPR
16.6
Jae'Lin Battle · DL

CFBD athlete 5268983

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
1
Jamaal Whyce · DL

CFBD athlete 4808747

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
13
Jayden McGowan · WR

CFBD athlete 4883774

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
0
kickReturns · AVG
43.5
kickReturns · LONG
51
kickReturns · NO
2
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
87
puntReturns · AVG
12.2
puntReturns · LONG
36
puntReturns · NO
14
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
171
receiving · LONG
43
receiving · REC
12
receiving · TD
4
receiving · YDS
228
receiving · YPR
19.0
rushing · CAR
2
rushing · LONG
13
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
15
rushing · YPC
7.5
Jordan Davis · S

CFBD athlete 5268931

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Jordan Mack · DE

CFBD athlete 5295766

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3
defensive · TOT
6
Kaleb Arterberry · LB

CFBD athlete 5393027

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
7
Kaleb Burns · LB

CFBD athlete 5207942

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
11
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3
defensive · TOT
21
Kamren Washington · DL

CFBD athlete 4879531

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.0
defensive · TOT
9
Kedrick Walker · LB

CFBD athlete 5295775

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
19
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
24
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Kyland Reed · LB

CFBD athlete 5149009

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
26
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
5
defensive · TOT
33
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Kyler Beaty · CB

CFBD athlete 5156852

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Kyler Jordan · DE

CFBD athlete 4782658

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
11
Levar Thornton Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5078158

defensive · PD
5
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
15
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
18
London Smith · WR

CFBD athlete 5159048

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Louis Brown · WR

CFBD athlete 4896389

receiving · LONG
51
receiving · REC
22
receiving · TD
3
receiving · YDS
345
receiving · YPR
15.7
Matthew Klopfenstein · TE

CFBD athlete 4921305

receiving · LONG
11
receiving · REC
5
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
32
receiving · YPR
6.4
Micah Gifford · S

CFBD athlete 4917621

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
23
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.0
defensive · TOT
36
interceptions · AVG
14.3
interceptions · INT
3
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
43
Michael Allen · S

CFBD athlete 5081784

kickReturns · AVG
27.0
kickReturns · LONG
27
kickReturns · NO
1
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
27
Michael Turner · RB

CFBD athlete 5295724

receiving · LONG
10
receiving · REC
7
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
35
receiving · YPR
5.0
rushing · CAR
37
rushing · LONG
25
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
161
rushing · YPC
4.4
Nate Bennett · QB

CFBD athlete 5145459

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
61
passing · COMPLETIONS
46
passing · INT
2
passing · PCT
0.754
passing · TD
5
passing · YDS
568
passing · YPA
9.3
rushing · CAR
6
rushing · LONG
25
rushing · TD
2
rushing · YDS
15
rushing · YPC
2.5
Nate Kibble · OL

CFBD athlete 5079553

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Palmer Williams · P

CFBD athlete 5078459

punting · In 20
10
punting · LONG
72
punting · NO
26
punting · TB
7
punting · YDS
1312
punting · YPP
50.5
Parker Almanza · TE

CFBD athlete 5268748

receiving · LONG
12
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
12
receiving · YPR
12.0
Reggie Bush · CB

CFBD athlete 4877626

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
6
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
10
interceptions · AVG
-2.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
-2
Rhett Armstrong · PK

CFBD athlete 5222130

kicking · FGA
18
kicking · FGM
13
kicking · LONG
54
kicking · PCT
0.722
kicking · PTS
60
kicking · XPA
22
kicking · XPM
21
Ryan Davis · DE

CFBD athlete 5084043

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
2.5
defensive · SOLO
8
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3
defensive · TOT
13
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Ryelan Morris · RB

CFBD athlete 5159106

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
kickReturns · AVG
19.0
kickReturns · LONG
19
kickReturns · NO
1
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
19
receiving · LONG
21
receiving · REC
5
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
26
receiving · YPR
5.2
rushing · CAR
34
rushing · LONG
63
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
213
rushing · YPC
6.3
Stilton McKelvey · CB

CFBD athlete 5295463

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Taz Williams Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5295733

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
18
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
48
receiving · YPR
12.0
Tony Livingston · TE

CFBD athlete 5121893

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
receiving · LONG
27
receiving · REC
10
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
107
receiving · YPR
10.7
Traevon Mitchell · DL

CFBD athlete 5296021

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
2.0
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
6.5
defensive · TOT
14
Travion Barnes · LB

CFBD athlete 5219851

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
35
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.5
defensive · TOT
48
Trent Thomas · DE

CFBD athlete 5076050

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Tyler Turner · S

CFBD athlete 4914227

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
18
Zavion Hardy · DE

CFBD athlete 5294283

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
6

UCF

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-30T23:30:00+00:00.

PlayerPassingRushing
Keyone Jenkins QB
3 games
41.0%
50 / 122 plays
47.6%
10 / 21 plays
Duke Watson RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
42.9%
18 / 42 plays
Landen Chambers RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
50.0%
7 / 14 plays
Taevion Swint RB
2 games
—
0 / 0 plays
50.0%
5 / 10 plays
Kaleb Annett QB
1 games
0.0%
0 / 3 plays
—
0 / 0 plays
Tyren Hornes WR
2 games
—
0 / 0 plays
66.7%
2 / 3 plays
Duane Thomas Jr. WR
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
50.0%
1 / 2 plays
Jonathan Bibbs WR
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
0.0%
0 / 1 plays
Traditional season production · 64 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Agyeman Addae · RB

CFBD athlete 5296077

kickReturns · AVG
18.0
kickReturns · LONG
18
kickReturns · NO
1
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
18
receiving · LONG
15
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
15
receiving · YPR
15.0
rushing · CAR
4
rushing · LONG
39
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
74
rushing · YPC
18.5
Alonza Barnett · QB

CFBD athlete 4911929

fumbles · FUM
2
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
49
passing · COMPLETIONS
31
passing · INT
1
passing · PCT
0.633
passing · TD
2
passing · YDS
344
passing · YPA
7.0
rushing · CAR
18
rushing · LONG
18
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
22
rushing · YPC
1.2
Amarion Queen · DB

CFBD athlete 5279122

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
0
Anthony Coaxum · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5101237

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Antoine Jackson · DB

CFBD athlete 5160072

defensive · PD
5
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
15
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
19
interceptions · AVG
19.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
19
puntReturns · AVG
15.3
puntReturns · LONG
55
puntReturns · NO
8
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
122
Artavius Jones · DT

CFBD athlete 5139099

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Arthur Lewis IV · RB

CFBD athlete 5271370

rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
0
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
0
rushing · YPC
0.0
Atticus Bertrams · P

CFBD athlete 5160651

punting · In 20
7
punting · LONG
59
punting · NO
26
punting · TB
4
punting · YDS
1210
punting · YPP
46.5
Aymeric Koumba · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5080968

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
1.5
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
10
Brad Gurley · DT

CFBD athlete 5086117

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
9
Braeden Marshall · DB

CFBD athlete 4918127

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
16
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Caden Piening · TE

CFBD athlete 5148656

receiving · LONG
26
receiving · REC
13
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
135
receiving · YPR
10.4
Caleb Flagg · DB

CFBD athlete 5084793

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
8
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
13
receiving · LONG
11
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
23
receiving · YPR
5.8
Caleb Rollerson · WR

CFBD athlete 5221393

receiving · LONG
12
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
38
receiving · YPR
9.5
Chase Hinshaw · WR

CFBD athlete 5296084

puntReturns · AVG
28.0
puntReturns · LONG
46
puntReturns · NO
3
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
84
Cole Kozlowski · LB

CFBD athlete 5085950

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
5
DJ Bell · DB

CFBD athlete 5092994

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
10
Demari Henderson · DB

CFBD athlete 4808748

defensive · PD
4
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
22
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
35
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
2
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Duane Thomas Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5151048

puntReturns · AVG
-2.0
puntReturns · LONG
0
puntReturns · NO
1
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
-2
receiving · LONG
7
receiving · REC
3
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
16
receiving · YPR
5.3
rushing · CAR
2
rushing · LONG
5
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
7
rushing · YPC
3.5
Duke Watson · RB

CFBD athlete 5136049

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
0
receiving · LONG
8
receiving · REC
7
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
12
receiving · YPR
1.7
rushing · CAR
85
rushing · LONG
64
rushing · TD
3
rushing · YDS
577
rushing · YPC
6.8
Dylan Wade · TE

CFBD athlete 4922996

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
receiving · LONG
15
receiving · REC
11
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
76
receiving · YPR
6.9
Elijah Keys · DB

CFBD athlete 5277347

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Grayson Brousseau · TE

CFBD athlete 5168802

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
receiving · LONG
4
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
5
receiving · YPR
2.5
Horace Lockett · DT

CFBD athlete 4875126

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.0
defensive · TOT
20
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Isaiah Nixon · EDGE

CFBD athlete 4941009

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
2.5
defensive · SOLO
12
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
4.0
defensive · TOT
25
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Jahleel Culbreath · LB

CFBD athlete 5092328

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
20
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
32
puntReturns · AVG
12.0
puntReturns · LONG
12
puntReturns · NO
1
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
12
Jailen Duffie · DB

CFBD athlete 5156996

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Jayden Bellamy · DB

CFBD athlete 4832028

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
11
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
17
interceptions · AVG
2.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
2
Jayden Burnett · LB

CFBD athlete 5385727

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Jayden McDonald · LB

CFBD athlete 4708164

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
13
Jayden Williams · DB

CFBD athlete 4709684

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
23
defensive · TD
1
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
35
interceptions · AVG
47.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
1
interceptions · YDS
47
Jeffson Lafontant · DT

CFBD athlete 5163560

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
4
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
15
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
5.5
defensive · TOT
24
Jonathan Bibbs · WR

CFBD athlete 5193217

receiving · LONG
23
receiving · REC
5
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
74
receiving · YPR
14.8
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
0
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
-1
rushing · YPC
-1.0
Jordyn Bridgewater · WR

CFBD athlete 5161780

receiving · LONG
9
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
9
receiving · YPR
9.0
Josh Schell · DT

CFBD athlete 5293964

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
5
Joshua Derry · WR

CFBD athlete 5153889

kickReturns · AVG
20.0
kickReturns · LONG
20
kickReturns · NO
1
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
20
receiving · LONG
49
receiving · REC
34
receiving · TD
3
receiving · YDS
358
receiving · YPR
10.5
Kahmel Johnson · DB

CFBD athlete 5331180

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
6
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
7
Kaj Baker · RB

CFBD athlete 5172096

rushing · CAR
6
rushing · LONG
20
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
30
rushing · YPC
5.0
Kaleb Annett · QB

CFBD athlete 5154248

passing · ATT
3
passing · COMPLETIONS
2
passing · INT
0
passing · PCT
0.667
passing · TD
0
passing · YDS
6
passing · YPA
2.0
rushing · CAR
2
rushing · LONG
9
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
9
rushing · YPC
4.5
Ken Talley · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5103176

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1.5
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
17
receiving · LONG
15
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
15
receiving · YPR
15.0
Keyone Jenkins · QB

CFBD athlete 5085337

fumbles · FUM
3
fumbles · LOST
3
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
159
passing · COMPLETIONS
108
passing · INT
3
passing · PCT
0.679
passing · TD
11
passing · YDS
1099
passing · YPA
6.9
rushing · CAR
42
rushing · LONG
9
rushing · TD
4
rushing · YDS
76
rushing · YPC
1.8
Kyle Hicks · LS

CFBD athlete 5225963

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Landen Chambers · RB

CFBD athlete 5078144

receiving · LONG
21
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
43
receiving · YPR
10.8
rushing · CAR
35
rushing · LONG
35
rushing · TD
4
rushing · YDS
161
rushing · YPC
4.6
Lewis Carter · LB

CFBD athlete 4870654

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
12
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
24
Matt Irwin · DB

CFBD athlete 5223957

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Matthew Occhipinti · LB

CFBD athlete 5290701

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Patrick Ryan · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5385731

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
2
Phil Picciotti · LB

CFBD athlete 4899481

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Quentin Hatch · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5163493

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
R.J. Jackson · DT

CFBD athlete 5125729

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Rashad Henry · LB

CFBD athlete 5159158

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
8
Ric'Darious Farmer · WR

CFBD athlete 5079386

receiving · LONG
39
receiving · REC
13
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
147
receiving · YPR
11.3
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
6
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
6
rushing · YPC
6.0
Rocco Marriott · QB

CFBD athlete 5209923

rushing · CAR
3
rushing · LONG
17
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
22
rushing · YPC
7.3
Rukeem Stroud · DB

CFBD athlete 5142612

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Sincere Edwards · EDGE

CFBD athlete 5079427

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
11
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.5
defensive · TOT
18
Tackett Curtis · LB

CFBD athlete 4870659

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
20
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3
defensive · TOT
42
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
interceptions · AVG
19.5
interceptions · INT
2
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
39
Taevion Swint · RB

CFBD athlete 5141668

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
kickReturns · AVG
29.9
kickReturns · LONG
57
kickReturns · NO
7
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
209
receiving · LONG
16
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
18
receiving · YPR
4.5
rushing · CAR
32
rushing · LONG
27
rushing · TD
2
rushing · YDS
162
rushing · YPC
5.1
Thomas Collins · DT

CFBD athlete 5157309

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
12
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Trenton Turner · DT

CFBD athlete 5265522

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
6
Ty Bartrum · DB

CFBD athlete 5083572

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
12
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
20
Tyce Porcher · DB

CFBD athlete 5385728

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Tyren Hornes · WR

CFBD athlete 5385726

receiving · LONG
56
receiving · REC
16
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
248
receiving · YPR
15.5
rushing · CAR
3
rushing · LONG
11
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
6
rushing · YPC
2.0
Waden Charles · WR

CFBD athlete 5142600

receiving · LONG
35
receiving · REC
18
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
217
receiving · YPR
12.1
Will Stone · P

CFBD athlete 4868929

kicking · FGA
8
kicking · FGM
6
kicking · LONG
40
kicking · PCT
0.750
kicking · PTS
47
kicking · XPA
29
kicking · XPM
29

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability
Unavailable
Measurement units
Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time
Unavailable
Forecast valid time
Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

UCF +1.5

EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

Comparison line · CFBD median

Baylor -1.5

Bovada snapshot: UCF +1.5

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

UCF by 2.48

3.98 points toward UCF versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward UCF.

  • Fitted offset: +5.87
  • Fitted home field: -1.93
  • Net EPA rating difference: -1.46

Reconciles to 2.48 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 48d0f2165240999dd6d9a60fb95da9f17e1240e79df45a0c47a2173272878d9d · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 83a7697109cc9eae590ecc6e6345ebf3de00a0e4e8990e13f14f4fcaa47039a7 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved +2.75 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: UCF · all values in points
Recorded valueEarlierLatestChange
Market spread-1.25+1.5+2.75
Model spread-2.48-2.480.0
Model gap+1.23+3.98+2.75

Negative spreads favor UCF; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256
e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256
c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256
907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256
979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
View recorded snapshot data
Model context & pick method

Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:
Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:
EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 48d0f2165240999dd6d9a60fb95da9f17e1240e79df45a0c47a2173272878d9d. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:
EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

UCF +1.5

Model gap +4.0 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor UCF.

Win probabilities · separate sources

UCF win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
Unavailable
Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability
46%
Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: UCF +1.5
Stacked ensemble
57%
Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward UCF.

  • away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +8.46 (path difference 3.75)
  • home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +7.89 (path difference 0.76)
  • away adjusted epa allowed: -7.01 (path difference 1.55)
  • home adjusted epa allowed: -6.92 (path difference 0.49)
  • away adjusted passing epa allowed: +5.77 (path difference 2.42)
  • home adjusted success allowed: +5.73 (path difference 1.25)
  • home adjusted second level yards: +5.44 (path difference 3.27)
  • home adjusted epa: +5.05 (path difference 1.53)
  • home adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.65 (path difference 2.77)
  • home adjusted success: +4.57 (path difference 0.90)
  • home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.27 (path difference 2.12)
  • home adjusted open field yards allowed: +4.13 (path difference 1.68)
  • home adjusted line yards: -4.10 (path difference 0.25)
  • home adjusted rushing epa: -4.02 (path difference 1.22)
  • home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -3.50 (path difference 0.28)
  • away talent: -3.15 (path difference 1.27)
  • away adjusted explosiveness: +3.06 (path difference 1.59)
  • away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -2.58 (path difference 1.51)
  • home adjusted second level yards allowed: +2.48 (path difference 0.81)
  • home elo: -2.42 (path difference 1.15)
  • away adjusted second level yards: +2.37 (path difference 1.11)
  • away adjusted passing down success: -2.28 (path difference 1.57)
  • away adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.12 (path difference 1.04)
  • home adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.10 (path difference 1.47)
  • home talent: +2.00 (path difference 0.77)
  • away adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.82 (path difference 1.14)
  • away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.76 (path difference 0.43)
  • home adjusted open field yards: -1.53 (path difference 0.33)
  • away adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.47 (path difference 0.52)
  • away adjusted epa: +1.47 (path difference 1.27)
  • home adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.36 (path difference 0.32)
  • away elo: -1.27 (path difference 0.44)
  • away adjusted standard down success: -1.23 (path difference 0.67)
  • away adjusted success allowed: -1.17 (path difference 0.21)
  • away adjusted open field yards allowed: -1.04 (path difference 2.35)
  • away adjusted rushing epa: -1.01 (path difference 0.64)
  • home adjusted passing epa: +0.94 (path difference 0.99)
  • home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.91 (path difference 0.78)
  • home adjusted explosiveness: +0.81 (path difference 0.05)
  • home adjusted standard down success: +0.78 (path difference 1.54)
  • away adjusted success: +0.71 (path difference 0.29)
  • away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.70 (path difference 1.02)
  • home adjusted passing down success: -0.65 (path difference 0.12)
  • away adjusted open field yards: +0.53 (path difference 1.93)
  • home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.52 (path difference 0.47)
  • away conference: -0.34 (path difference 0.01)
  • home conference: -0.34 (path difference 0.01)
  • away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.31 (path difference 0.45)
  • away adjusted passing epa: -0.22 (path difference 0.88)
  • home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.18 (path difference 1.20)
  • away adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.18 (path difference 0.30)
  • away adjusted line yards allowed: -0.10 (path difference 0.44)
  • week: +0.06 (path difference 0.81)
  • away adjusted line yards: -0.05 (path difference 0.00)
  • home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.00 (path difference 0.41)

Reconciles to 56.92 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs a7088ab605cd826d05c9ec36a265034aa9d9f1e46fa31b204530ce25a146b16f · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 688c9ad2a3dec46e7ac732357b1f49c00da6fc97399f7fc1079c9bec5367bcf2 · through week 8.

Output:
Home win probability (%), display only
Model:
StackedEnsemble
Training:
Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:
Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Baylor

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 102 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

PlayerAttemptsYPCSacksAttributed shareCaptured season attempts / YPC
Caden Knighten

CFBD athlete 5295723

Week 5 vs Arizona State: 6 attempts · 14.0 YPC · 16.7% success · 0.684 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs TCU: 10 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 30.0% success · -0.147 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Kansas: 7 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 14.3% success · 0.057 raw PPA.

236.3022.5%66 / 4.6
Dawson Pendergrass

CFBD athlete 4921517

Week 5 vs Arizona State: 8 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 37.5% success · 0.198 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs TCU: 9 attempts · 1.2 YPC · 11.1% success · -0.349 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Kansas: 4 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.372 raw PPA.

212.1020.6%93 / 3.6
D.J. Lagway

CFBD athlete 5079555

Week 5 vs Arizona State: 3 attempts · -1.3 YPC · 100.0% success · 2.649 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs TCU: 6 attempts · -4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.367 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Kansas: 11 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 55.6% success · 0.220 raw PPA.

200.9819.6%25 / 0.5
Ryelan Morris

CFBD athlete 5159106

Week 5 vs Arizona State: 9 attempts · 9.3 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.369 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs TCU: 8 attempts · 3.1 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.883 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Kansas: 3 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 66.7% success · -0.076 raw PPA.

206.0019.6%33 / 6.6
Michael Turner

CFBD athlete 5295724

Week 5 vs Arizona State: 9 attempts · 5.3 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.092 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Kansas: 9 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 44.4% success · 0.060 raw PPA.

184.9017.6%35 / 4.5

UCF

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 99 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

PlayerAttemptsYPCSacksAttributed shareCaptured season attempts / YPC
Duke Watson

CFBD athlete 5136049

Week 5 vs Houston: 9 attempts · 5.6 YPC · 22.2% success · 0.040 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Oklahoma State: 20 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 45.0% success · 0.067 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs BYU: 13 attempts · 6.3 YPC · 53.8% success · 0.205 raw PPA.

425.0042.4%80 / 6.7
Keyone Jenkins

CFBD athlete 5085337

Week 5 vs Houston: 5 attempts · -0.8 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.409 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Oklahoma State: 10 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 55.6% success · 0.038 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs BYU: 11 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.061 raw PPA.

261.7426.3%41 / 1.7
Landen Chambers

CFBD athlete 5078144

Week 5 vs Houston: 3 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.396 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Oklahoma State: 2 attempts · 0.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -2.324 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs BYU: 9 attempts · 2.4 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.206 raw PPA.

142.3014.1%35 / 4.6
Taevion Swint

CFBD athlete 5141668

Week 5 vs Houston: 3 attempts · 6.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.082 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Oklahoma State: 7 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.031 raw PPA.

104.6010.1%32 / 5.0
Tyren Hornes

CFBD athlete 5385726

Week 6 vs Oklahoma State: 1 attempts · -10.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -2.717 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs BYU: 2 attempts · 8.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.289 raw PPA.

32.003.0%3 / 2.0

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

MeasureUCFOffenseBaylorDefenseBaylorOffenseUCFDefense
PPA/play
+0.14
53rd
-0.08
94th
+0.10
35th
+0.03
64th
Success rate
43.3%
53rd
34.9%
88th
37.8%
9th
39.9%
58th
Explosiveness
1.23
47th
1.17
72nd
1.38
95th
1.15
80th
Standard-down PPA/play
+0.01
21st
-0.11
88th
-0.03
15th
-0.06
76th
Passing-down PPA/play
+0.46
91st
-0.04
93rd
+0.33
69th
+0.23
38th
Havoc allowed / created
13.9%
61st
19.7%
92nd
15.2%
43rd
14.8%
34th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:39 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:39 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

  • Will Stone · UCF · PAAR -1.03 · 8 attempts
  • Rhett Armstrong · Baylor · PAAR -0.52 · 18 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

UCF spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: -2 · Snapshot spread: +1.5

First locally observed: +1.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 47.5 · Snapshot total: 48

Total · First locally observed: 47.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -125 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -125 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +105 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +105 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -1.5 · Snapshot spread: +1.5

First locally observed: -2.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 49.5 · Snapshot total: 48.5

Total · First locally observed: 48.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -102 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -122 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

Away moneyline · Snapshot: -118 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +102 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88

UCF

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 7 rated weeks · Big 12

70th FBS percentile

Baylor

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Big 12

76th FBS percentile

Travel

Baylor travels 973 miles (longer than 75% of road trips, 2017–2025) · 1 time zone crossed.

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

Baylor leads 2–1 in 3 meetings since 2013.

  • 2025UCF at Baylor3–30 · Baylor
  • 2023Baylor at UCF36–35 · Baylor
  • 2013 · NUCF at Baylor52–42 · UCF

CFBD matchup data Last 3 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.