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Week 9 · 2026

California at NC State

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

California

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T16:00:00+00:00.

PlayerPassingRushing
Jackson Brousseau QB
2 games
35.6%
26 / 73 plays
33.3%
2 / 6 plays
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele QB
2 games
39.7%
23 / 58 plays
0.0%
0 / 1 plays
Ashten Emory RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
39.1%
18 / 46 plays
Carson Perry-Smith RB
2 games
—
0 / 0 plays
40.0%
2 / 5 plays
Anthony League RB
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
33.3%
1 / 3 plays
Tyree Sams WR
2 games
—
0 / 0 plays
0.0%
0 / 3 plays
Niles Davis DB
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
33.3%
1 / 3 plays
Dominic Ingrassia QB
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
50.0%
1 / 2 plays
Traditional season production · 65 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Tuitele · LB

CFBD athlete 5249499

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
5
defensive · SACKS
3
defensive · SOLO
17
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
4.5
defensive · TOT
40
Aaron Hampton · LB

CFBD athlete 5218746

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
12
Adam Mohammed · RB

CFBD athlete 5147861

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
65
receiving · REC
17
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
168
receiving · YPR
9.9
rushing · CAR
73
rushing · LONG
28
rushing · TD
3
rushing · YDS
336
rushing · YPC
4.6
Aiden Manutai · DB

CFBD athlete 5141574

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
15
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
23
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Angus Davies · P

CFBD athlete 5151623

passing · ATT
1
passing · COMPLETIONS
0
passing · INT
0
passing · PCT
0.000
passing · TD
0
passing · YDS
0
passing · YPA
0.0
punting · In 20
8
punting · LONG
53
punting · NO
38
punting · TB
1
punting · YDS
1554
punting · YPP
40.9
Anthony League · RB

CFBD athlete 5164327

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
receiving · LONG
13
receiving · REC
10
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
53
receiving · YPR
5.3
rushing · CAR
10
rushing · LONG
7
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
24
rushing · YPC
2.4
Ashten Emory · RB

CFBD athlete 5192899

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
0
receiving · LONG
15
receiving · REC
14
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
84
receiving · YPR
6.0
rushing · CAR
73
rushing · LONG
20
rushing · TD
4
rushing · YDS
232
rushing · YPC
3.2
Ashun Shepphard · DL

CFBD athlete 5218832

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
10
Beckham Barney · LB

CFBD athlete 5215235

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Cameron Sidney · DB

CFBD athlete 4685557

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
14
Carson Perry-Smith · RB

CFBD athlete 5218743

receiving · LONG
53
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
65
receiving · YPR
16.3
rushing · CAR
10
rushing · LONG
7
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
34
rushing · YPC
3.4
Carter Vargas · RB

CFBD athlete 5148905

receiving · LONG
6
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
6
receiving · YPR
3.0
rushing · CAR
4
rushing · LONG
6
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
14
rushing · YPC
3.5
Chase Hendricks · WR

CFBD athlete 4921110

receiving · LONG
42
receiving · REC
54
receiving · TD
3
receiving · YDS
498
receiving · YPR
9.2
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
0
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
-1
rushing · YPC
-1.0
Chase Meyer · PK

CFBD athlete 5084425

kicking · FGA
4
kicking · FGM
2
kicking · LONG
37
kicking · PCT
0.500
kicking · PTS
11
kicking · XPA
5
kicking · XPM
5
Cooper Perry · WR

CFBD athlete 5141597

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
0
receiving · LONG
21
receiving · REC
8
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
111
receiving · YPR
13.9
Dabe Nwude · DL

CFBD athlete 5446587

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Daniel Harris · DB

CFBD athlete 4870753

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
22
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3
defensive · TOT
33
David Bird · LS

CFBD athlete 5092234

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Derek Wilkins · DL

CFBD athlete 4597241

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
8
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.0
defensive · TOT
24
Dominic Ingrassia · QB

CFBD athlete 5296106

rushing · CAR
4
rushing · LONG
8
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
18
rushing · YPC
4.5
Dorian Thomas · TE

CFBD athlete 4908552

receiving · LONG
7
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
14
receiving · YPR
7.0
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
29
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
29
rushing · YPC
29.0
Ian Strong · WR

CFBD athlete 5075390

receiving · LONG
49
receiving · REC
33
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
467
receiving · YPR
14.2
Isaiah Crosby · DB

CFBD athlete 5218740

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
29
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
44
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
puntReturns · AVG
2.5
puntReturns · LONG
3
puntReturns · NO
2
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
5
JD McKinley · LB

CFBD athlete 5209183

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
4
defensive · SACKS
3
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3
defensive · TOT
21
Jackson Brousseau · QB

CFBD athlete 5054036

passing · ATT
120
passing · COMPLETIONS
75
passing · INT
0
passing · PCT
0.625
passing · TD
3
passing · YDS
701
passing · YPA
5.8
rushing · CAR
11
rushing · LONG
15
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
13
rushing · YPC
1.2
Jae'On Young · DB

CFBD athlete 5141771

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
10
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · QB

CFBD athlete 5164313

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
219
passing · COMPLETIONS
149
passing · INT
5
passing · PCT
0.680
passing · TD
10
passing · YDS
1555
passing · YPA
7.1
rushing · CAR
17
rushing · LONG
5
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
-60
rushing · YPC
-3.5
Jayden Wayne · LB

CFBD athlete 4871030

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
1.5
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
6
Jayden Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 5194311

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Jericho Johnson · DL

CFBD athlete 5126998

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1.5
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.5
defensive · TOT
20
Jordan King · WR

CFBD athlete 4899704

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
26
receiving · REC
11
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
108
receiving · YPR
9.8
Jordan Sanford · DB

CFBD athlete 4950549

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Joshua Pierce · LB

CFBD athlete 5157114

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
8
Jude McLellan · LB

CFBD athlete 5218745

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Justin Beadles · LB

CFBD athlete 4568099

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
7
Kamar Mothudi · LB

CFBD athlete 5110496

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
12
defensive · TD
1
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
29
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Khamani Hudson · DB

CFBD athlete 5196843

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
10
Kingston Lopa · DB

CFBD athlete 5087950

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
29
defensive · TD
1
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
37
interceptions · AVG
16.0
interceptions · INT
5
interceptions · TD
1
interceptions · YDS
80
receiving · LONG
11
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
11
receiving · YPR
11.0
Kyion Grayes · WR

CFBD athlete 4688541

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
80
receiving · REC
10
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
121
receiving · YPR
12.1
LeBron Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 5215240

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
4
Legend Journey · DL

CFBD athlete 5079532

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
9
Mark Hamper · WR

CFBD athlete 5165117

receiving · LONG
21
receiving · REC
5
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
60
receiving · YPR
12.0
Marquis Groves-Killebrew · DB

CFBD athlete 4685371

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Mason Mini · TE

CFBD athlete 5165154

passing · ATT
1
passing · COMPLETIONS
1
passing · INT
0
passing · PCT
1.000
passing · TD
0
passing · YDS
26
passing · YPA
26.0
receiving · LONG
38
receiving · REC
21
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
220
receiving · YPR
10.5
rushing · CAR
3
rushing · LONG
3
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
5
rushing · YPC
1.7
Michael Hurst · DB

CFBD athlete 5085574

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
16
Michael-Anthony Okwura · DL

CFBD athlete 5147686

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
7
Nathan Burrell · DL

CFBD athlete 4685281

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
6
Nemyah Telona · DL

CFBD athlete 5245512

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Niles Davis · DB

CFBD athlete 5327141

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
6
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
kickReturns · AVG
18.2
kickReturns · LONG
46
kickReturns · NO
13
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
237
rushing · CAR
4
rushing · LONG
7
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
11
rushing · YPC
2.8
Odera Okaka · LB

CFBD athlete 5296107

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
11
Quaron Adams · WR

CFBD athlete 4705557

fumbles · FUM
2
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
puntReturns · AVG
1.0
puntReturns · LONG
2
puntReturns · NO
2
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
2
receiving · LONG
0
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
-2
receiving · YPR
-2.0
Quimari Shemwell · DB

CFBD athlete 5178385

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
11
R.J. Stephens · DL

CFBD athlete 5161148

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Rickey Fletcher · DB

CFBD athlete 4869387

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
11
Roger Vanderhoef · OL

CFBD athlete 5290746

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Solomon Williams · LB

CFBD athlete 5127001

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
4
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.5
defensive · TOT
14
Stanley McKenzie · DL

CFBD athlete 4433872

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Taimane Purcell · TE

CFBD athlete 5217177

receiving · LONG
91
receiving · REC
15
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
208
receiving · YPR
13.9
Tobey Weydemuller · DB

CFBD athlete 5218744

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Towns McGough · PK

CFBD athlete 5192416

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
kicking · FGA
9
kicking · FGM
7
kicking · LONG
41
kicking · PCT
0.778
kicking · PTS
34
kicking · XPA
13
kicking · XPM
13
Tre Harrison · DB

CFBD athlete 5148613

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Trevor Rogers · WR

CFBD athlete 5115243

receiving · LONG
4
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
4
receiving · YPR
4.0
Tristan Dunn · DB

CFBD athlete 4685322

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Tristan Jernigan · LB

CFBD athlete 5135202

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
27
Tyree Sams · WR

CFBD athlete 5277128

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
0
kickReturns · AVG
0
kickReturns · LONG
7
kickReturns · NO
0
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
7
puntReturns · AVG
9.9
puntReturns · LONG
24
puntReturns · NO
7
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
69
receiving · LONG
20
receiving · REC
16
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
86
receiving · YPR
5.4
rushing · CAR
5
rushing · LONG
21
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
25
rushing · YPC
5.0

NC State

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T16:00:00+00:00.

PlayerPassingRushing
CJ Bailey QB
3 games
47.4%
54 / 114 plays
61.9%
13 / 21 plays
Davion Gause RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
23.8%
10 / 42 plays
Will Wilson QB
3 games
100.0%
1 / 1 plays
57.1%
8 / 14 plays
Jayden Scott RB
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
20.0%
1 / 5 plays
Darius Johnson RB
2 games
—
0 / 0 plays
33.3%
1 / 3 plays
Dylan McCoy RB
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
33.3%
1 / 3 plays
Joshisa Trader WR
1 games
0.0%
0 / 1 plays
—
0 / 0 plays
Victor Snow WR
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
0.0%
0 / 1 plays
Traditional season production · 65 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Prim · DL

CFBD athlete 5296071

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
8
AJ Richardson · LB

CFBD athlete 5155981

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Adrian Farrow · DL

CFBD athlete 5203717

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
7
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Amiri Acker · WR

CFBD athlete 5290566

receiving · LONG
14
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
14
receiving · YPR
14.0
Asaad Brown Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5079316

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Ashton Locklear · WR

CFBD athlete 5081845

receiving · LONG
10
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
14
receiving · YPR
7.0
Bailey Benson · LB

CFBD athlete 5296060

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
6
Brian Nelson II · CB

CFBD athlete 5125151

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
25
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
31
Brody Barnhardt · S

CFBD athlete 5079315

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
19
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
CJ Bailey · QB

CFBD athlete 5079301

fumbles · FUM
3
fumbles · LOST
3
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
219
passing · COMPLETIONS
143
passing · INT
4
passing · PCT
0.653
passing · TD
11
passing · YDS
1763
passing · YPA
8.1
receiving · LONG
0
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
0
receiving · YPR
0.0
rushing · CAR
56
rushing · LONG
28
rushing · TD
2
rushing · YDS
177
rushing · YPC
3.2
Caden Gordon · CB

CFBD athlete 5212730

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Chance Robinson · WR

CFBD athlete 5079661

receiving · LONG
24
receiving · REC
8
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
92
receiving · YPR
11.5
Chase Bond · DE

CFBD athlete 5146992

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
4
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
9
Chino Aguirre · S

CFBD athlete 5378092

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Colby Cronk · DT

CFBD athlete 5167700

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
4
DaKaari Nelson · LB

CFBD athlete 4870957

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
6
Darius Johnson · RB

CFBD athlete 5159453

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
receiving · LONG
8
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
12
receiving · YPR
6.0
rushing · CAR
5
rushing · LONG
6
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
22
rushing · YPC
4.4
Davion Dozier · WR

CFBD athlete 5080819

receiving · LONG
13
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
35
receiving · YPR
8.8
Davion Gause · RB

CFBD athlete 5079468

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
36
receiving · REC
20
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
199
receiving · YPR
10.0
rushing · CAR
68
rushing · LONG
19
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
248
rushing · YPC
3.6
Deandre Desinor · RB

CFBD athlete 5141409

receiving · LONG
58
receiving · REC
7
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
86
receiving · YPR
12.3
rushing · CAR
4
rushing · LONG
8
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
17
rushing · YPC
4.3
Dylan McCoy · RB

CFBD athlete 5176079

rushing · CAR
7
rushing · LONG
51
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
78
rushing · YPC
11.1
Elijah Satchell · LB

CFBD athlete 5289316

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
4
defensive · SOLO
13
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
5
defensive · TOT
14
Harvey Dyson III · LB

CFBD athlete 4901373

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
9
defensive · SACKS
1.5
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
16
Hunter Provience · TE

CFBD athlete 5172608

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
24
receiving · REC
8
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
74
receiving · YPR
9.3
Isaiah Shirley · DT

CFBD athlete 4871041

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
4
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
15
Isiah Jones · RB

CFBD athlete 5147510

rushing · CAR
3
rushing · LONG
5
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
12
rushing · YPC
4.0
Jackson Vick · CB

CFBD athlete 4703069

defensive · PD
4
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
15
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
23
interceptions · AVG
-1.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
-1
Jackson Waller · P

CFBD athlete 5219235

punting · In 20
10
punting · LONG
58
punting · NO
26
punting · TB
1
punting · YDS
1091
punting · YPP
42.0
Jamel Johnson · CB

CFBD athlete 5086869

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Jaren Sensabaugh · CB

CFBD athlete 5147970

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
12
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
17
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Jayden Scott · RB

CFBD athlete 5126513

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
receiving · LONG
11
receiving · REC
3
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
21
receiving · YPR
7.0
rushing · CAR
62
rushing · LONG
65
rushing · TD
4
rushing · YDS
358
rushing · YPC
5.8
Jonathan Paylor · RB

CFBD athlete 5079659

kickReturns · AVG
18.0
kickReturns · LONG
18
kickReturns · NO
1
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
18
rushing · CAR
2
rushing · LONG
51
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
52
rushing · YPC
26.0
Jordan Moreta · LB

CFBD athlete 5265578

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
7
Jordyn Best · CB

CFBD athlete 5290766

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Joseph Adedire · DE

CFBD athlete 4872478

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
7
Josh Warren Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5378101

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
3
Joshisa Trader · WR

CFBD athlete 5079745

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
2
passing · COMPLETIONS
2
passing · INT
0
passing · PCT
1.000
passing · TD
0
passing · YDS
5
passing · YPA
2.5
receiving · LONG
46
receiving · REC
16
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
221
receiving · YPR
13.8
Josiah Victor · DL

CFBD athlete 5217706

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
9
Kanoah Vinesett · PK

CFBD athlete 5081852

kicking · FGA
7
kicking · FGM
7
kicking · LONG
46
kicking · PCT
1.000
kicking · PTS
48
kicking · XPA
27
kicking · XPM
27
Katron Evans · DL

CFBD athlete 4432697

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
12
Keenan Jackson · WR

CFBD athlete 5079524

receiving · LONG
54
receiving · REC
30
receiving · TD
6
receiving · YDS
456
receiving · YPR
15.2
Kevon Carter · LB

CFBD athlete 5207855

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
4
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
9
King Mack · S

CFBD athlete 4870877

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
8
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
21
kickReturns · AVG
20.0
kickReturns · LONG
32
kickReturns · NO
6
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
120
LaCorian Hodge · LB

CFBD athlete 5263574

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
10
Logan Foust · LB

CFBD athlete 5220012

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Michael Tate · CB

CFBD athlete 5151801

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Noah Moss · RB

CFBD athlete 5291741

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
13
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
13
rushing · YPC
13.0
Omarian Abraham · OL

CFBD athlete 5203854

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
12
Pluto Surratt · S

CFBD athlete 5378090

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Preston Douglas · TE

CFBD athlete 5215337

receiving · LONG
43
receiving · REC
25
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
299
receiving · YPR
12.0
Raul Aguirre Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 4870590

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
27
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
61
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
3
Rico Jackson · OL

CFBD athlete 4870806

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Ronnie Royal III · S

CFBD athlete 5079666

defensive · PD
3
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
13
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
29
Sterling Dixon · LB

CFBD athlete 5079411

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Teague Andersen · OL

CFBD athlete 5082623

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Tex Vaughn · TE

CFBD athlete 5378098

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
9
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
9
receiving · YPR
4.5
Trent Mitchell · OL

CFBD athlete 5146779

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Tristan Teasdell · S

CFBD athlete 5211398

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
17
Ty White · DB

CFBD athlete 5219162

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
7
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Tyran Warren · WR

CFBD athlete 5160003

receiving · LONG
34
receiving · REC
8
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
119
receiving · YPR
14.9
Vander Ploog · TE

CFBD athlete 5201877

receiving · LONG
21
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
25
receiving · YPR
12.5
Victor Snow · WR

CFBD athlete 5084967

fumbles · FUM
2
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
puntReturns · AVG
9.5
puntReturns · LONG
33
puntReturns · NO
12
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
114
receiving · LONG
25
receiving · REC
15
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
127
receiving · YPR
8.5
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
1
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
1
rushing · YPC
1.0
Will Wilson · QB

CFBD athlete 5148611

passing · ATT
12
passing · COMPLETIONS
9
passing · INT
0
passing · PCT
0.750
passing · TD
2
passing · YDS
35
passing · YPA
2.9
rushing · CAR
42
rushing · LONG
38
rushing · TD
8
rushing · YDS
173
rushing · YPC
4.1
Zane Williams · LB

CFBD athlete 5147735

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Ziggy Moore · LB

CFBD athlete 5290700

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
13

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability
Unavailable
Measurement units
Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time
Unavailable
Forecast valid time
Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

NC State -7.25

Bovada snapshot: NC State -7.5

Book quote differs from the comparison line.

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

NC State by 9.71

2.46 points toward NC State versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward NC State.

  • Fitted offset: +5.87
  • Net EPA rating difference: +5.78
  • Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to 9.71 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 9b318fdcd7ae52f23782cbdbe833f392a970def5525f3c681d58c280f965a4a9 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast d41625b72570128426c9ba3d997f38890801136e8518bcf5e0343f4bd98fda0e · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved -0.25 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: NC State · all values in points
Recorded valueEarlierLatestChange
Market spread-7.0-7.25-0.25
Model spread-9.71-9.710.0
Model gap+2.71+2.46-0.25

Negative spreads favor NC State; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256
e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256
c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256
907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256
979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
View recorded snapshot data
Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:
Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:
EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 9b318fdcd7ae52f23782cbdbe833f392a970def5525f3c681d58c280f965a4a9. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:
EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +2.5 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

NC State win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
Unavailable
Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability
70%
Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: NC State -7.5
Stacked ensemble
76%
Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward NC State.

  • away elo: +14.44 (path difference 13.39)
  • away adjusted epa: +11.19 (path difference 0.28)
  • home adjusted second level yards: +5.57 (path difference 0.49)
  • home adjusted rushing epa: -5.51 (path difference 0.73)
  • home adjusted epa: +4.83 (path difference 3.31)
  • home talent: +4.09 (path difference 1.46)
  • away talent: -3.67 (path difference 1.50)
  • home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +3.35 (path difference 1.88)
  • away adjusted success: +3.07 (path difference 0.90)
  • away adjusted rushing epa: -3.04 (path difference 0.85)
  • away adjusted second level yards allowed: +2.92 (path difference 0.15)
  • home adjusted success allowed: -2.80 (path difference 1.76)
  • home adjusted line yards: -2.69 (path difference 0.75)
  • away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +2.67 (path difference 1.31)
  • away adjusted passing down success: -2.62 (path difference 0.14)
  • away adjusted open field yards allowed: +2.55 (path difference 1.58)
  • away adjusted rushing epa allowed: -2.40 (path difference 0.38)
  • home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +2.17 (path difference 0.45)
  • away adjusted epa allowed: +2.14 (path difference 1.41)
  • away adjusted second level yards: +2.12 (path difference 0.63)
  • home elo: -2.08 (path difference 1.63)
  • away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.77 (path difference 0.22)
  • away adjusted passing epa: +1.63 (path difference 2.15)
  • away adjusted standard down success: -1.60 (path difference 0.56)
  • home adjusted passing epa: +1.60 (path difference 0.05)
  • home adjusted epa allowed: +1.51 (path difference 3.22)
  • away adjusted explosiveness: +1.44 (path difference 1.86)
  • home adjusted passing epa allowed: -1.43 (path difference 0.60)
  • away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.34 (path difference 0.42)
  • away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.32 (path difference 0.47)
  • home adjusted open field yards: -1.06 (path difference 1.53)
  • home adjusted explosiveness: +0.88 (path difference 0.12)
  • home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.75 (path difference 1.51)
  • home conference: -0.67 (path difference 0.35)
  • away adjusted line yards: +0.65 (path difference 0.48)
  • home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.54 (path difference 0.40)
  • home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -0.54 (path difference 0.16)
  • home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.51 (path difference 1.38)
  • away conference: -0.48 (path difference 0.08)
  • away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.45 (path difference 0.28)
  • away adjusted open field yards: -0.39 (path difference 1.08)
  • home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.34 (path difference 0.95)
  • home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.28 (path difference 0.05)
  • home adjusted standard down success: +0.24 (path difference 0.52)
  • home adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.22 (path difference 0.00)
  • home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.20 (path difference 0.22)
  • away adjusted success allowed: -0.19 (path difference 0.07)
  • away adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.17 (path difference 0.01)
  • away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.12 (path difference 1.76)
  • home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.12 (path difference 0.47)
  • away adjusted line yards allowed: -0.11 (path difference 0.00)
  • away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.10 (path difference 1.22)
  • home adjusted passing down success: +0.10 (path difference 0.08)
  • home adjusted success: -0.08 (path difference 0.40)
  • week: +0.01 (path difference 0.90)

Reconciles to 76.41 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs cfc8995a64a108e833edf6f745d8fc62652d25fed73a946bcc16a29ca0300994 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast c8ca104be40e869504540c78019314dd6ed01208ac10379dcf095bc2d42463bc · through week 8.

Output:
Home win probability (%), display only
Model:
StackedEnsemble
Training:
Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:
Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

California

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 76 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

PlayerAttemptsYPCSacksAttributed shareCaptured season attempts / YPC
Ashten Emory

CFBD athlete 5192899

Week 6 vs Virginia Tech: 19 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 47.4% success · 0.100 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs Wake Forest: 13 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 38.5% success · 0.023 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs SMU: 14 attempts · 1.9 YPC · 28.6% success · -0.574 raw PPA.

462.8060.5%74 / 3.2
Jackson Brousseau

CFBD athlete 5054036

Week 6 vs Virginia Tech: 3 attempts · -0.7 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.275 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs Wake Forest: 5 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.032 raw PPA.

81.5210.5%10 / 2.5
Carson Perry-Smith

CFBD athlete 5218743

Week 6 vs Virginia Tech: 2 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.082 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs SMU: 3 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.224 raw PPA.

54.006.6%10 / 3.4
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele

CFBD athlete 5164313

Week 8 vs SMU: 4 attempts · -5.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.016 raw PPA.

4-5.035.3%16 / -4.1
Anthony League

CFBD athlete 5164327

Week 7 vs Wake Forest: 3 attempts · 2.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.126 raw PPA.

32.303.9%10 / 2.4

NC State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 96 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

PlayerAttemptsYPCSacksAttributed shareCaptured season attempts / YPC
Davion Gause

CFBD athlete 5079468

Week 5 vs Louisville: 21 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 19.0% success · -0.171 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Wake Forest: 7 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 14.3% success · -0.524 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Stanford: 14 attempts · 3.1 YPC · 35.7% success · -0.230 raw PPA.

423.0043.8%66 / 3.6
CJ Bailey

CFBD athlete 5079301

Week 5 vs Louisville: 7 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.176 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Wake Forest: 12 attempts · 1.9 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.035 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Stanford: 9 attempts · 6.6 YPC · 85.7% success · 0.713 raw PPA.

283.6629.2%54 / 3.8
Will Wilson

CFBD athlete 5148611

Week 5 vs Louisville: 7 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.236 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Wake Forest: 1 attempts · -1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.644 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Stanford: 6 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.584 raw PPA.

142.4014.6%42 / 4.1
Jayden Scott

CFBD athlete 5126513

Week 5 vs Louisville: 5 attempts · 2.4 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.501 raw PPA.

52.405.2%59 / 5.9
Darius Johnson

CFBD athlete 5159453

Week 5 vs Louisville: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.166 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs Stanford: 2 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.145 raw PPA.

33.703.1%5 / 4.4

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

MeasureNC StateOffenseCaliforniaDefenseCaliforniaOffenseNC StateDefense
PPA/play
+0.21
74th
+0.17
18th
-0.02
9th
+0.19
15th
Success rate
46.2%
70th
39.9%
57th
37.9%
11th
42.5%
33rd
Explosiveness
1.24
50th
1.40
4th
1.23
47th
1.33
15th
Standard-down PPA/play
+0.12
61st
+0.16
12th
-0.07
7th
+0.12
17th
Passing-down PPA/play
+0.40
82nd
+0.19
45th
+0.08
16th
+0.34
15th
Havoc allowed / created
14.3%
54th
11.9%
5th
17.7%
11th
14.5%
31st

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:54 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:54 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

  • Kanoah Vinesett · NC State · PAAR 4.40 · 7 attempts
  • Chase Meyer · California · PAAR -2.28 · 4 attempts
  • Towns McGough · California · PAAR 0.98 · 9 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

NC State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: -8.5 · Snapshot spread: -7.5

First locally observed: -8.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 57 · Snapshot total: 56.5

Total · First locally observed: 57 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -320 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -320 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +260 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +260 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -8.5 · Snapshot spread: -7

First locally observed: -8.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 56.5 · Snapshot total: 56.5

Total · First locally observed: 57.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Home moneyline · Snapshot: -265 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: -325 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Away moneyline · Snapshot: +215 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: +260 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

NC State

Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 8 rated weeks · ACC

20th FBS percentile

California

Net adjusted EPA/play -0.2 · 8 rated weeks · ACC

5th FBS percentile

Travel

California travels 2,390 miles (longer than 90% of road trips, 2017–2025) · 3 time zones crossed.

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

NC State leads 1–0 in 1 meetings since 2024.

  • 2024NC State at California24–23 · NC State

CFBD matchup data Last 1 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.