Week 9 · 2026
Stanford at Louisville
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Stanford
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:15:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Davis Warren QB 3 games | 43.0% 43 / 100 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
| Micah Ford RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 45.3% 24 / 53 plays |
| Caleb Hampton RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 44.4% 4 / 9 plays |
| Sedrick Irvin RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 2 / 8 plays |
| Chris Davis Jr. RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 2 / 4 plays |
| Charlie Mirer QB 1 games | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
| Mike Mitchell Jr. QB 1 games | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays | — 0 / 0 plays |
| Jacob Butler WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 60 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Adam Shovlin · DE
CFBD athlete 5141680
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Aidan Flintoft · P
CFBD athlete 5092214
- punting · In 20
- 13
- punting · LONG
- 53
- punting · NO
- 43
- punting · TB
- 1
- punting · YDS
- 1847
- punting · YPP
- 43.0
Atticus Joseph · WR
CFBD athlete 5294219
- receiving · LONG
- 22
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 83
- receiving · YPR
- 10.4
Benedict Umeh · DL
CFBD athlete 5139059
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Benjamin Blackburn · TE
CFBD athlete 5146764
- receiving · LONG
- 22
- receiving · REC
- 28
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 244
- receiving · YPR
- 8.7
Bo Tate · LB
CFBD athlete 5149255
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Braden Marceau-Olayinka · DL
CFBD athlete 5125732
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Brandon Nicholson · CB
CFBD athlete 5084299
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 9
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Caden High · WR
CFBD athlete 5231354
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 52
- receiving · REC
- 30
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 410
- receiving · YPR
- 13.7
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 0
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -4
- rushing · YPC
- -4.0
Caleb Hampton · RB
CFBD athlete 5156056
- kickReturns · AVG
- 18.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 18
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 18
- receiving · LONG
- 5
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 5
- receiving · YPR
- 2.5
- rushing · CAR
- 15
- rushing · LONG
- 11
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 70
- rushing · YPC
- 4.7
Cam Richardson · CB
CFBD athlete 5148423
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Charlie Eckhardt · S
CFBD athlete 5219244
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 30
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 0.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 0
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 0
Charlie Mirer · QB
CFBD athlete 4914482
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 0
- passing · INT
- 1
- passing · PCT
- 0.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 0
- passing · YPA
- 0.0
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 7
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 7
- rushing · YPC
- 7.0
Chico Holt · TE
CFBD athlete 5077804
- receiving · LONG
- 15
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 42
- receiving · YPR
- 8.4
Chris Davis Jr. · RB
CFBD athlete 5079371
- kickReturns · AVG
- 20.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 37
- kickReturns · NO
- 21
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 431
- rushing · CAR
- 8
- rushing · LONG
- 7
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 23
- rushing · YPC
- 2.9
Connor Bachhuber · DL
CFBD athlete 5144020
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Darrius Davis · S
CFBD athlete 5147109
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 18
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 26
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Davis Warren · QB
CFBD athlete 4878681
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 2
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 271
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 163
- passing · INT
- 2
- passing · PCT
- 0.601
- passing · TD
- 11
- passing · YDS
- 1933
- passing · YPA
- 7.1
- rushing · CAR
- 24
- rushing · LONG
- 25
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -30
- rushing · YPC
- -1.3
Dre Pollard · WR
CFBD athlete 5276660
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Drew Cunningham · LB
CFBD athlete 5219245
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Emmet Kenney · PK
CFBD athlete 4875315
- kicking · FGA
- 9
- kicking · FGM
- 6
- kicking · LONG
- 43
- kicking · PCT
- 0.667
- kicking · PTS
- 37
- kicking · XPA
- 20
- kicking · XPM
- 19
Ernest Cooper · LB
CFBD athlete 4685308
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Fisher Anderson · OL
CFBD athlete 4685251
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Gabe Kaminski · LB
CFBD athlete 5141551
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Gavin Geweniger · LB
CFBD athlete 5031156
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jacob Butler · WR
CFBD athlete 5279420
- kickReturns · AVG
- 13.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 13
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 13
- puntReturns · AVG
- 8.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 8
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 8
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 0
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -4
- rushing · YPC
- -2.0
Jahsiah Galvan · LB
CFBD athlete 5085761
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 35
Jaivion Green · S
CFBD athlete 4917046
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 28
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 48
Javion Randall · CB
CFBD athlete 5152986
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jaylen'Dai Sumlin · S
CFBD athlete 5127807
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Jonanthony Hall · WR
CFBD athlete 5208218
- receiving · LONG
- 57
- receiving · REC
- 16
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 277
- receiving · YPR
- 17.3
Jordan Onovughe · WR
CFBD athlete 5114313
- receiving · LONG
- 30
- receiving · REC
- 16
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 156
- receiving · YPR
- 9.8
Kole Briehler · DT
CFBD athlete 5141383
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Landon McComber · LB
CFBD athlete 5148649
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Langdon Horace · WR
CFBD athlete 5209298
- receiving · LONG
- 9
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 9
- receiving · YPR
- 9.0
Lasiah Jackson · DB
CFBD athlete 5199857
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
- puntReturns · AVG
- 0.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 0
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 0
Leroy Bryant · CB
CFBD athlete 5078420
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 21
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 26
Liam Thorpe · WR
CFBD athlete 5212732
- puntReturns · AVG
- 12.1
- puntReturns · LONG
- 33
- puntReturns · NO
- 8
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 97
- receiving · LONG
- 19
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 56
- receiving · YPR
- 11.2
Lonnie McAllister III · DB
CFBD athlete 5209788
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Marcus Brown · WR
CFBD athlete 5219242
- receiving · LONG
- 10
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 10
- receiving · YPR
- 10.0
Matt Rose · LB
CFBD athlete 4819256
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.0
- defensive · TOT
- 38
Micah Ford · RB
CFBD athlete 5143191
- receiving · LONG
- 43
- receiving · REC
- 20
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 176
- receiving · YPR
- 8.8
- rushing · CAR
- 136
- rushing · LONG
- 81
- rushing · TD
- 8
- rushing · YDS
- 679
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
Mike Mitchell Jr. · QB
CFBD athlete 5211073
- passing · ATT
- 10
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 7
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.700
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 46
- passing · YPA
- 4.6
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 2
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -6
- rushing · YPC
- -3.0
Nico Brown · WR
CFBD athlete 5094032
- receiving · LONG
- 33
- receiving · REC
- 22
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 236
- receiving · YPR
- 10.7
Omar Staples · DL
CFBD athlete 5121883
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Preston Jernegan · LB
CFBD athlete 5219246
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Sam Mattingly · LB
CFBD athlete 5147183
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 22
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 49
Sam Neely · CB
CFBD athlete 5140699
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Sarrel Howard · LB
CFBD athlete 5281563
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Scotty Edwards · S
CFBD athlete 5081694
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 15
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Sedrick Irvin · RB
CFBD athlete 4870802
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 27
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 90
- receiving · YPR
- 10.0
- rushing · CAR
- 44
- rushing · LONG
- 27
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 168
- rushing · YPC
- 3.8
Tevarua Tafiti · LB
CFBD athlete 4685544
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 9
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 26
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 2
Tre Williams · LB
CFBD athlete 4954505
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Tuna Altahir · RB
CFBD athlete 4876144
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 8
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Tyler Kuo · WR
CFBD athlete 5125795
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Wassie Lugolobi · LB
CFBD athlete 5159105
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Xavier Harmon · CB
CFBD athlete 5276979
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Zach Johnson · LB
CFBD athlete 5165113
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Zach Rowell · DL
CFBD athlete 4804886
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Zion Robinson · WR
CFBD athlete 5217152
- receiving · LONG
- 61
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 155
- receiving · YPR
- 22.1
Louisville
Window: 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-09 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:15:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Kienholz QB 3 games | 47.4% 37 / 78 plays | 66.7% 12 / 18 plays |
| Isaac Brown RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 39.4% 13 / 33 plays |
| Keyjuan Brown RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 10 / 20 plays |
| Marquise Davis RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 66.7% 6 / 9 plays |
| Braxton Jennings RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 66.7% 2 / 3 plays |
| Lekhy Thompkins RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
| Tre Richardson WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 59 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Adonijah Green · DL
CFBD athlete 4899477
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Antonio Harris · DB
CFBD athlete 5214562
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Antonio Watts · DB
CFBD athlete 4838276
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Bailey Abercrombie · DL
CFBD athlete 5258299
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Benjamin Perry · LB
CFBD athlete 4683149
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 5
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 34
Blake Ruffin · DB
CFBD athlete 4877252
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Braxton Jennings · RB
CFBD athlete 5296136
- kickReturns · AVG
- 19.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 21
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 38
- receiving · LONG
- 2
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 2
- receiving · YPR
- 2.0
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 44
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 80
- rushing · YPC
- 11.4
Briggs Cherry · QB
CFBD athlete 5158996
- passing · ATT
- 2
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 2
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 24
- passing · YPA
- 12.0
Brody Foley · TE
CFBD athlete 4819226
- receiving · LONG
- 10
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 13
- receiving · YPR
- 6.5
Brycen Scott · DB
CFBD athlete 5224791
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 16
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Cameron White · LB
CFBD athlete 5217872
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 12
- interceptions · AVG
- 8.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 8
Carson Hilbert · PK
CFBD athlete 5296134
- kicking · FGA
- 9
- kicking · FGM
- 7
- kicking · LONG
- 54
- kicking · PCT
- 0.778
- kicking · PTS
- 50
- kicking · XPA
- 32
- kicking · XPM
- 29
Clev Lubin · DL
CFBD athlete 5082149
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 5
- defensive · SACKS
- 4.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 34
DJ Waller Jr. · CB
CFBD athlete 5092262
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Davin Wydner · QB
CFBD athlete 4836476
- passing · ATT
- 4
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 3
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.750
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 19
- passing · YPA
- 4.8
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Daylen Russell · DL
CFBD athlete 5146111
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Demeco Kennedy · DL
CFBD athlete 5147384
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 20
Dillon Smith · DL
CFBD athlete 5209261
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Drew Kegebein · LS
CFBD athlete 5375082
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Elizjah Lewis · WR
CFBD athlete 4893702
- receiving · LONG
- 12
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 12
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Eric Hazzard · DL
CFBD athlete 5209935
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Garth White · PK
CFBD athlete 5085035
- kicking · FGA
- 0
- kicking · FGM
- 0
- kicking · LONG
- 0
- kicking · PCT
- 0
- kicking · PTS
- 3
- kicking · XPA
- 3
- kicking · XPM
- 3
Isaac Brown · RB
CFBD athlete 5079349
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 27.2
- kickReturns · LONG
- 71
- kickReturns · NO
- 6
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 163
- receiving · LONG
- 46
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 108
- receiving · YPR
- 9.0
- rushing · CAR
- 83
- rushing · LONG
- 97
- rushing · TD
- 4
- rushing · YDS
- 568
- rushing · YPC
- 6.8
Jabari Mack · DB
CFBD athlete 4917353
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 15
- kickReturns · AVG
- 12.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 12
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 12
Jackson Voth · WR
CFBD athlete 5144023
- puntReturns · AVG
- 8.2
- puntReturns · LONG
- 16
- puntReturns · NO
- 5
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 41
- receiving · LONG
- 27
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 41
- receiving · YPR
- 13.7
Jacob Smith · LB
CFBD athlete 5079695
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jaleel Skinner · TE
CFBD athlete 4685560
- receiving · LONG
- 69
- receiving · REC
- 16
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 275
- receiving · YPR
- 17.2
James Glover-Tyson · OL
CFBD athlete 5151026
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jerod Smith II · DL
CFBD athlete 5079697
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.0
- defensive · TOT
- 17
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Jordan Vann · S
CFBD athlete 5265176
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Joshua Donald · DL
CFBD athlete 5084455
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Justyn Reid · TE
CFBD athlete 5077877
- receiving · LONG
- 20
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 35
- receiving · YPR
- 17.5
Kaleb Beasley · DB
CFBD athlete 5079321
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 24
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 49
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 5
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Kalib Perry · LB
CFBD athlete 5081395
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- kickReturns · AVG
- 0.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 0
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 0
Keon Webb · DL
CFBD athlete 5226790
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Keyjuan Brown · RB
CFBD athlete 4923046
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 2
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 24.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 40
- kickReturns · NO
- 4
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 96
- receiving · LONG
- 13
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 18
- receiving · YPR
- 9.0
- rushing · CAR
- 51
- rushing · LONG
- 58
- rushing · TD
- 5
- rushing · YDS
- 417
- rushing · YPC
- 8.2
Koen Entringer · DB
CFBD athlete 4869698
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 29
- kickReturns · AVG
- 13.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 13
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 13
Lance Robinson · OL
CFBD athlete 4576120
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Lawayne McCoy · WR
CFBD athlete 5086096
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- puntReturns · AVG
- 3.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 3
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 3
- receiving · LONG
- 61
- receiving · REC
- 25
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 513
- receiving · YPR
- 20.5
Lekhy Thompkins · RB
CFBD athlete 5209960
- rushing · CAR
- 8
- rushing · LONG
- 19
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 37
- rushing · YPC
- 4.6
Lincoln Kienholz · QB
CFBD athlete 5078278
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 180
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 121
- passing · INT
- 3
- passing · PCT
- 0.672
- passing · TD
- 10
- passing · YDS
- 1844
- passing · YPA
- 10.2
- rushing · CAR
- 71
- rushing · LONG
- 82
- rushing · TD
- 10
- rushing · YDS
- 251
- rushing · YPC
- 3.5
Marlon Harbin · WR
CFBD athlete 5210046
- receiving · LONG
- 14
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 24
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Marquise Davis · RB
CFBD athlete 5141420
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 14.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 14
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 14
- rushing · CAR
- 17
- rushing · LONG
- 39
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 144
- rushing · YPC
- 8.5
Maurice Davis · DL
CFBD athlete 5146867
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Micah Carter · DL
CFBD athlete 4870657
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Micah Rice · DB
CFBD athlete 5214535
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Myles Norwood · DB
CFBD athlete 5081861
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Niall Hayes · P
CFBD athlete 5447125
- punting · In 20
- 4
- punting · LONG
- 59
- punting · NO
- 25
- punting · TB
- 1
- punting · YDS
- 1001
- punting · YPP
- 40.0
Nick Keller · PK
CFBD athlete 5081159
- kicking · FGA
- 1
- kicking · FGM
- 0
- kicking · LONG
- 0
- kicking · PCT
- 0.000
- kicking · PTS
- 0
- kicking · XPA
- 0
- kicking · XPM
- 0
Stanquan Clark · LB
CFBD athlete 4870664
- defensive · PD
- 5
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 48
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
T.J. Capers · LB
CFBD athlete 5079330
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 26
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 53
T.J. McWilliams · WR
CFBD athlete 5078049
- receiving · LONG
- 11
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 16
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
Tayon Holloway · DB
CFBD athlete 4685387
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Tommy Ziesmer · DL
CFBD athlete 4918459
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Travaris Banks · DB
CFBD athlete 5079312
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 32
Tre Richardson · WR
CFBD athlete 5294063
- kickReturns · AVG
- 22.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 22
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 22
- puntReturns · AVG
- 13.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 13
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 13
- receiving · LONG
- 62
- receiving · REC
- 30
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 493
- receiving · YPR
- 16.4
- rushing · CAR
- 6
- rushing · LONG
- 30
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 68
- rushing · YPC
- 11.3
Trent Carter · LB
CFBD athlete 5145593
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Treyshun Hurry · WR
CFBD athlete 5085609
- receiving · LONG
- 35
- receiving · REC
- 28
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 337
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Tyler Thompson · DL
CFBD athlete 4921271
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 4.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 17
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
Louisville -22.5
DraftKings snapshot: Louisville -22.5
Louisville by 24.94
2.44 points toward Louisville versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Louisville.
- Net EPA rating difference: +21.00
- Fitted offset: +5.87
- Fitted home field: -1.93
Reconciles to 24.94 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 2c619ca8cf1ced9f73a257a4c378caa76cd78db23372bdc1d39d6b16a0fc8c29 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 113e1a9bf9d6ed955a5bceae89d41114687913d7a462cdd2b57b56b38264ac06 · through week 8.
What changed?
12 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -22.5 | -22.5 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | -24.94 | -24.94 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +2.44 | +2.44 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor Louisville; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
- Odds source SHA-256
- c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
- Odds source SHA-256
- 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 2c619ca8cf1ced9f73a257a4c378caa76cd78db23372bdc1d39d6b16a0fc8c29. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.
Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +2.4 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
Louisville win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 94%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Louisville -22.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 87%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Louisville.
- away elo: +14.28 (path difference 20.15)
- home elo: +7.67 (path difference 5.55)
- home adjusted success: +4.69 (path difference 7.48)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +4.53 (path difference 8.13)
- away adjusted epa allowed: +4.28 (path difference 6.93)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +4.17 (path difference 0.10)
- away adjusted passing down success: -4.02 (path difference 4.15)
- away adjusted success allowed: +3.34 (path difference 3.85)
- home adjusted passing epa: +3.24 (path difference 4.27)
- home adjusted line yards: -3.00 (path difference 1.05)
- home adjusted success allowed: +2.74 (path difference 4.16)
- away adjusted epa: +2.74 (path difference 4.42)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -2.51 (path difference 2.62)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -2.33 (path difference 1.33)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: -2.28 (path difference 4.08)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +2.10 (path difference 1.45)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +2.02 (path difference 0.67)
- away talent: -2.02 (path difference 0.30)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: -2.00 (path difference 3.64)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: +1.88 (path difference 1.81)
- home adjusted open field yards: +1.84 (path difference 0.06)
- home talent: +1.79 (path difference 0.22)
- away adjusted success: +1.63 (path difference 2.08)
- away adjusted rushing epa: -1.40 (path difference 2.15)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +1.30 (path difference 1.79)
- home adjusted second level yards: +1.19 (path difference 0.78)
- home adjusted standard down success: +1.10 (path difference 0.54)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -1.05 (path difference 1.95)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.91 (path difference 0.09)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +0.91 (path difference 0.99)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.89 (path difference 0.17)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.79 (path difference 1.28)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.77 (path difference 0.15)
- home adjusted passing down success: +0.75 (path difference 0.45)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.69 (path difference 0.56)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.60 (path difference 0.48)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.58 (path difference 0.58)
- home adjusted epa: +0.58 (path difference 1.23)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.43 (path difference 0.22)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.38 (path difference 0.08)
- home conference: -0.38 (path difference 0.94)
- home adjusted rushing epa: +0.38 (path difference 0.69)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: -0.35 (path difference 1.43)
- away conference: -0.28 (path difference 0.33)
- away adjusted open field yards: -0.27 (path difference 2.20)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.22 (path difference 0.62)
- week: +0.18 (path difference 0.56)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.16 (path difference 0.54)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.15 (path difference 0.19)
- away adjusted standard down success: +0.15 (path difference 0.90)
- away adjusted line yards: -0.13 (path difference 0.11)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.13 (path difference 0.60)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.03 (path difference 0.26)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.01 (path difference 0.01)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.00 (path difference 0.00)
Reconciles to 87.14 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 76b39faffb30f62d56d7de55b2b5f9587d7299c4fdd75dc5a258a9447bd0b409 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast f12f798cdad5cd4939c10f56bf860458db85337bbc9c5b76fb0b33e1cbcbebd8 · through week 8.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.
Stanford
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 82 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Micah FordCFBD athlete 5143191 Week 6 vs Notre Dame: 13 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 15.4% success · -0.218 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Elon: 19 attempts · 9.4 YPC · 63.2% success · 0.921 raw PPA. Week 8 vs NC State: 22 attempts · 6.8 YPC · 45.5% success · 0.363 raw PPA. | 54 | 7.0 | 0 | 65.9% | 136 / 5.0 |
Caleb HamptonCFBD athlete 5156056 Week 6 vs Notre Dame: 1 attempts · 0.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.994 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Elon: 3 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.406 raw PPA. Week 8 vs NC State: 5 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.191 raw PPA. | 9 | 4.8 | 0 | 11.0% | 15 / 4.7 |
Sedrick IrvinCFBD athlete 4870802 Week 6 vs Notre Dame: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.453 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Elon: 6 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.172 raw PPA. Week 8 vs NC State: 1 attempts · 0.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.558 raw PPA. | 8 | 2.6 | 0 | 9.8% | 43 / 3.9 |
Davis WarrenCFBD athlete 4878681 Week 6 vs Notre Dame: 2 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.031 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Elon: 1 attempts · -4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.000 raw PPA. Week 8 vs NC State: 2 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 2.891 raw PPA. | 5 | 0.8 | 3 | 6.1% | 22 / -0.0 |
Chris Davis Jr.CFBD athlete 5079371 Week 6 vs Notre Dame: 2 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.338 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Elon: 2 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.282 raw PPA. | 4 | 2.8 | 0 | 4.9% | 8 / 2.9 |
Louisville
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 95 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaac BrownCFBD athlete 5079349 Week 5 vs NC State: 8 attempts · 14.6 YPC · 37.5% success · 0.916 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Florida State: 16 attempts · 14.8 YPC · 43.8% success · 0.625 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Syracuse: 9 attempts · 1.2 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.503 raw PPA. | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | 34.7% | 81 / 6.9 |
Lincoln KienholzCFBD athlete 5078278 Week 5 vs NC State: 6 attempts · 2.3 YPC · 66.7% success · -0.084 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Florida State: 9 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 87.5% success · 0.874 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Syracuse: 10 attempts · 5.3 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.788 raw PPA. | 25 | 4.3 | 7 | 26.3% | 69 / 3.6 |
Keyjuan BrownCFBD athlete 4923046 Week 5 vs NC State: 9 attempts · 14.7 YPC · 55.6% success · 0.115 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Syracuse: 13 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 38.5% success · 0.310 raw PPA. | 22 | 8.3 | 0 | 23.2% | 52 / 8.9 |
Marquise DavisCFBD athlete 5141420 Week 6 vs Florida State: 9 attempts · 6.2 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.285 raw PPA. | 9 | 6.2 | 0 | 9.5% | 17 / 8.5 |
Braxton JenningsCFBD athlete 5296136 Week 6 vs Florida State: 3 attempts · 16.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.375 raw PPA. | 3 | 16.3 | 0 | 3.2% | 7 / 11.4 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | LouisvilleOffense | StanfordDefense | StanfordOffense | LouisvilleDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.32 95th | +0.32 0th | +0.13 46th | +0.09 42nd |
| Success rate | 48.9% 86th | 47.9% 5th | 39.5% 19th | 41.0% 48th |
| Explosiveness | 1.42 99th | 1.34 13th | 1.24 53rd | 1.22 50th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.27 93rd | +0.22 4th | +0.15 70th | -0.04 73rd |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.45 90th | +0.55 1st | +0.08 15th | +0.39 10th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 17.5% 14th | 11.1% 3rd | 12.7% 78th | 15.3% 43rd |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:07 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:06 AM CDT
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.
- Emmet Kenney · Stanford · PAAR -4.10 · 8 attempts
- Nick Keller · Louisville · PAAR -0.82 · 1 attempts
- Carson Hilbert · Louisville · PAAR 3.94 · 9 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Louisville spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: -21 · Snapshot spread: -22.5
First locally observed: -22.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 61.5 · Snapshot total: 60.5
Total · First locally observed: 61.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -2100 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -2100 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +1100 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +1100 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: -23 · Snapshot spread: -22.5
First locally observed: -23 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 61.5 · Snapshot total: 60.5
Total · First locally observed: 61.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -2000 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -2000 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +950 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +950 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Louisville
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 8 rated weeks · ACC
Stanford
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.2 · 8 rated weeks · ACC
Travel
Stanford travels 1,975 miles (longer than 90% of road trips, 2017–2025) · 3 time zones crossed.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Stanford leads 1–0 in 1 meetings since 2024.
- 2024Louisville at Stanford35–38 · Stanford
CFBD matchup data Last 1 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.