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Week 9 · 2026

Notre Dame at Navy

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Notre Dame

Window: 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T16:00:00+00:00.

PlayerPassingRushing
C.J. Carr QB
3 games
47.5%
47 / 99 plays
53.8%
7 / 13 plays
Jonaz Walton RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
53.7%
22 / 41 plays
Nolan James Jr. RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
58.3%
21 / 36 plays
Aneyas Williams RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
33.3%
6 / 18 plays
Noah Grubbs QB
1 games
71.4%
5 / 7 plays
—
0 / 0 plays
Javian Osborne RB
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
83.3%
5 / 6 plays
Kedren Young RB
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
33.3%
1 / 3 plays
Traditional season production · 65 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Adon Shuler · S

CFBD athlete 4880937

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
19
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
26
interceptions · AVG
9.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
9
Aneyas Williams · RB

CFBD athlete 5079742

kickReturns · AVG
21.0
kickReturns · LONG
29
kickReturns · NO
2
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
42
receiving · LONG
70
receiving · REC
9
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
109
receiving · YPR
12.1
rushing · CAR
70
rushing · LONG
24
rushing · TD
4
rushing · YDS
302
rushing · YPC
4.3
Armel Mukam · DL

CFBD athlete 5078062

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3
defensive · TOT
11
Ayden Pouncey · CB

CFBD athlete 5161840

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Boubacar Traore · DL

CFBD athlete 4871079

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
8
defensive · SACKS
3.5
defensive · SOLO
15
defensive · TD
1
defensive · TFL
5.5
defensive · TOT
18
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
interceptions · AVG
18.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
18
Brandon Logan · S

CFBD athlete 5214506

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Brayden Robinson · WR

CFBD athlete 5159080

rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
11
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
11
rushing · YPC
11.0
Bryce Young · DL

CFBD athlete 5112630

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
3
defensive · SOLO
14
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
5.5
defensive · TOT
21
Bubba Frazier · WR

CFBD athlete 5245466

fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
C.J. Carr · QB

CFBD athlete 5079369

fumbles · FUM
2
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
193
passing · COMPLETIONS
129
passing · INT
1
passing · PCT
0.668
passing · TD
16
passing · YDS
1639
passing · YPA
8.5
receiving · LONG
0
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
-5
receiving · YPR
-5.0
rushing · CAR
23
rushing · LONG
14
rushing · TD
3
rushing · YDS
82
rushing · YPC
3.6
Christian Gray · CB

CFBD athlete 4870708

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
6
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
10
Cole Mullins · DL

CFBD athlete 5142800

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Cooper Flanagan · TE

CFBD athlete 4870733

receiving · LONG
27
receiving · REC
6
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
48
receiving · YPR
8.0
Dallas Golden · CB

CFBD athlete 5141465

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
puntReturns · AVG
1.7
puntReturns · LONG
6
puntReturns · NO
3
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
5
Devin Fitzgerald · WR

CFBD athlete 5271466

receiving · LONG
20
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
25
receiving · YPR
12.5
Drayk Bowen · LB

CFBD athlete 4870622

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
22
defensive · TD
1
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
38
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Dylahn McKinney · CB

CFBD athlete 4707184

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
6
defensive · TD
1
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
9
interceptions · AVG
55.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
1
interceptions · YDS
55
Ebenezer Ewetade · DL

CFBD athlete 5376774

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Elijah Burress · WR

CFBD athlete 5198104

receiving · LONG
30
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
63
receiving · YPR
15.8
Elijah Hughes · DL

CFBD athlete 5121775

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Ethan Long · S

CFBD athlete 5167183

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
6
Francis Brewu · DL

CFBD athlete 5136784

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
9
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3
defensive · TOT
16
Gordy Sulfsted · DL

CFBD athlete 5212980

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Ian Premer · TE

CFBD athlete 5210543

receiving · LONG
14
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
14
receiving · YPR
14.0
Ja'Kobe Clapper · LB

CFBD athlete 5209353

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Jack Larsen · TE

CFBD athlete 5218514

receiving · LONG
14
receiving · REC
6
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
44
receiving · YPR
7.3
Jaden Greathouse · WR

CFBD athlete 4870768

receiving · LONG
38
receiving · REC
19
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
263
receiving · YPR
13.8
Jaiden Ausberry · LB

CFBD athlete 4870589

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
20
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
2
James Flanigan · TE

CFBD athlete 5142596

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
9
receiving · REC
5
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
22
receiving · YPR
4.4
Jason Onye · DL

CFBD athlete 4594985

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Jasper Scaife · P

CFBD athlete 5329697

punting · In 20
5
punting · LONG
60
punting · NO
14
punting · TB
0
punting · YDS
633
punting · YPP
45.2
Javian Osborne · RB

CFBD athlete 5160472

rushing · CAR
11
rushing · LONG
13
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
35
rushing · YPC
3.2
Jayden Sanders · CB

CFBD athlete 5214512

defensive · PD
5
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
6
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Jaylen Sneed · LB

CFBD athlete 4685527

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
18
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
28
Jerome Bettis Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5164349

receiving · LONG
56
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
92
receiving · YPR
23.0
Joey O'Brien · S

CFBD athlete 5210542

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0.5
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
10
Jonaz Walton · RB

CFBD athlete 5159087

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
kickReturns · AVG
27.5
kickReturns · LONG
28
kickReturns · NO
2
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
55
receiving · LONG
16
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
56
receiving · YPR
14.0
rushing · CAR
57
rushing · LONG
97
rushing · TD
3
rushing · YDS
426
rushing · YPC
7.5
Jordan Faison · WR

CFBD athlete 5150424

puntReturns · AVG
15.2
puntReturns · LONG
37
puntReturns · NO
9
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
137
receiving · LONG
39
receiving · REC
34
receiving · TD
4
receiving · YDS
451
receiving · YPR
13.3
Joseph Vinci · LS

CFBD athlete 5218516

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Kahanu Kia · LB

CFBD athlete 4705623

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
2
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Kedren Young · RB

CFBD athlete 5106301

receiving · LONG
11
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
19
receiving · YPR
9.5
rushing · CAR
10
rushing · LONG
6
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
29
rushing · YPC
2.9
Keon Keeley · DL

CFBD athlete 4870879

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
8
Koo Kia · LB

CFBD athlete 5167182

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
0
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa · LB

CFBD athlete 5079748

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
8
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
15
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
interceptions · AVG
14.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
14
Leonard Moore · CB

CFBD athlete 5079629

defensive · PD
5
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
13
Logan Saldate · WR

CFBD athlete 5146164

receiving · LONG
21
receiving · REC
3
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
36
receiving · YPR
12.0
Loghan Thomas · DL

CFBD athlete 5079723

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
6
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
12
Luke Talich · S

CFBD athlete 5121819

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
22
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
4.5
defensive · TOT
27
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
2
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Madden Faraimo · LB

CFBD athlete 5141441

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Mark Zackery IV · CB

CFBD athlete 5141770

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Matt Jeffery · WR

CFBD athlete 5218507

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
receiving · LONG
18
receiving · REC
3
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
32
receiving · YPR
10.7
Micah Drescher · PK

CFBD athlete 5291145

kicking · FGA
0
kicking · FGM
0
kicking · LONG
0
kicking · PCT
0
kicking · PTS
3
kicking · XPA
3
kicking · XPM
3
Micah Gilbert · WR

CFBD athlete 5079475

receiving · LONG
61
receiving · REC
22
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
409
receiving · YPR
18.6
Mylan Graham · WR

CFBD athlete 5079444

receiving · LONG
20
receiving · REC
5
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
37
receiving · YPR
7.4
Noah Grubbs · QB

CFBD athlete 5159115

passing · ATT
22
passing · COMPLETIONS
14
passing · INT
0
passing · PCT
0.636
passing · TD
1
passing · YDS
164
passing · YPA
7.5
Nolan James Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5189515

receiving · LONG
28
receiving · REC
13
receiving · TD
3
receiving · YDS
105
receiving · YPR
8.1
rushing · CAR
81
rushing · LONG
31
rushing · TD
6
rushing · YDS
412
rushing · YPC
5.1
Rodney Dunham · DL

CFBD athlete 5209310

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
9
fumbles · FUM
0
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
1
Sean Sevillano Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 5146165

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Spencer Porath · PK

CFBD athlete 5148363

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
kicking · FGA
11
kicking · FGM
10
kicking · LONG
52
kicking · PCT
0.909
kicking · PTS
61
kicking · XPA
32
kicking · XPM
31
Tae Johnson · S

CFBD athlete 5218506

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Teddy Jarrard · QB

CFBD athlete 5280155

passing · ATT
2
passing · COMPLETIONS
2
passing · INT
0
passing · PCT
1.000
passing · TD
0
passing · YDS
29
passing · YPA
14.5
Teddy Rezac · LB

CFBD athlete 5144960

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
4
Thomas Davis Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5158953

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Tionne Gray · DL

CFBD athlete 5127031

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
12
Ty Washington · TE

CFBD athlete 4837392

receiving · LONG
6
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
12
receiving · YPR
6.0

Navy

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T16:00:00+00:00.

PlayerPassingRushing
Jackson Gutierrez QB
3 games
50.0%
12 / 24 plays
47.1%
41 / 87 plays
Michael Barrow WR
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
50.0%
23 / 46 plays
Braxton Woodson QB
2 games
66.7%
2 / 3 plays
63.6%
7 / 11 plays
Vic Listorti RB
3 games
—
0 / 0 plays
53.8%
7 / 13 plays
Charles Robinson WR
2 games
—
0 / 0 plays
57.1%
4 / 7 plays
Stefan Egbe RB
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
50.0%
1 / 2 plays
Luke Hutchison WR
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
0.0%
0 / 1 plays
Jaydn Jones RB
1 games
—
0 / 0 plays
100.0%
1 / 1 plays
Traditional season production · 55 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aaron Rose · S

CFBD athlete 5220477

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
18
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
25
Aiden Lyczek · DE

CFBD athlete 5220521

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
3
defensive · SACKS
3.5
defensive · SOLO
16
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
8.0
defensive · TOT
36
Andre Gilbert Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5220471

rushing · CAR
2
rushing · LONG
3
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
4
rushing · YPC
2.0
Braxton Woodson · QB

CFBD athlete 5158343

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
0
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
23
passing · COMPLETIONS
9
passing · INT
1
passing · PCT
0.391
passing · TD
0
passing · YDS
144
passing · YPA
6.3
rushing · CAR
49
rushing · LONG
48
rushing · TD
5
rushing · YDS
384
rushing · YPC
7.8
Cam Robinson · CB

CFBD athlete 5295399

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
13
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
23
Charles Robinson · WR

CFBD athlete 5220476

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
puntReturns · AVG
4.7
puntReturns · LONG
23
puntReturns · NO
9
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
42
receiving · LONG
15
receiving · REC
10
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
85
receiving · YPR
8.5
rushing · CAR
11
rushing · LONG
22
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
72
rushing · YPC
6.5
Chris Herock · DL

CFBD athlete 5220520

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
8
Christian Cromer · RB

CFBD athlete 5295391

rushing · CAR
5
rushing · LONG
6
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
13
rushing · YPC
2.6
Christian Johnson · LB

CFBD athlete 5295398

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
15
Coleman Cauley · LB

CFBD athlete 5158382

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
4
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
33
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
58
Collin Seals · CB

CFBD athlete 5295378

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Connor Young · DL

CFBD athlete 5295419

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
1.5
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.0
defensive · TOT
5
E.J. Walker · LB

CFBD athlete 5391334

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Evan Blouir · QB

CFBD athlete 5391331

receiving · LONG
9
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
9
receiving · YPR
9.0
rushing · CAR
7
rushing · LONG
18
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
45
rushing · YPC
6.4
Gage Leonard · WR

CFBD athlete 5158365

rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
5
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
5
rushing · YPC
5.0
Garrison Edwards · CB

CFBD athlete 5391336

rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
0
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
0
rushing · YPC
0.0
Gavin Noe · TE

CFBD athlete 5158372

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
3
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Giuseppe Sessi · S

CFBD athlete 5158359

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
22
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
42
interceptions · AVG
2.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
2
Griffen Willis · DT

CFBD athlete 5158387

defensive · PD
2
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
3.0
defensive · TOT
25
Harry Beacham III · LB

CFBD athlete 5220498

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Ikenna Ozurumba · DE

CFBD athlete 5158386

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
6
Ira Oniha · CB

CFBD athlete 5158366

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
18
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Isaiah Bryant · WR

CFBD athlete 5158374

kickReturns · AVG
32.5
kickReturns · LONG
37
kickReturns · NO
2
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
65
puntReturns · AVG
3.0
puntReturns · LONG
3
puntReturns · NO
1
puntReturns · TD
0
puntReturns · YDS
3
receiving · LONG
14
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
14
receiving · YPR
14.0
rushing · CAR
7
rushing · LONG
6
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
0
rushing · YPC
0.0
Jackson Gutierrez · QB

CFBD athlete 5220473

fumbles · FUM
6
fumbles · LOST
3
fumbles · REC
0
passing · ATT
64
passing · COMPLETIONS
32
passing · INT
1
passing · PCT
0.500
passing · TD
7
passing · YDS
692
passing · YPA
10.8
receiving · LONG
63
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
63
receiving · YPR
63.0
rushing · CAR
149
rushing · LONG
56
rushing · TD
12
rushing · YDS
872
rushing · YPC
5.9
Jacob Asbeck · LB

CFBD athlete 5220533

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
Jacob Carlson · P

CFBD athlete 5220485

punting · In 20
3
punting · LONG
52
punting · NO
15
punting · TB
1
punting · YDS
603
punting · YPP
40.2
Jacob Williams · RB

CFBD athlete 5391358

rushing · CAR
5
rushing · LONG
11
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
34
rushing · YPC
6.8
Jaydn Jones · RB

CFBD athlete 5220492

rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
3
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
3
rushing · YPC
3.0
Job Grant · LB

CFBD athlete 5158367

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
Jordan Collins · TE

CFBD athlete 5212655

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
1
receiving · LONG
92
receiving · REC
6
receiving · TD
3
receiving · YDS
212
receiving · YPR
35.3
Joshua Guerin · WR

CFBD athlete 5158395

receiving · LONG
10
receiving · REC
1
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
10
receiving · YPR
10.0
Kush'i Abraham · S

CFBD athlete 5158364

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0.5
defensive · TOT
8
Lance Gossett · PK

CFBD athlete 5158399

punting · In 20
1
punting · LONG
62
punting · NO
7
punting · TB
1
punting · YDS
345
punting · YPP
49.3
Landon Walker · WR

CFBD athlete 5222710

rushing · CAR
4
rushing · LONG
23
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
49
rushing · YPC
12.3
Luke Hutchison · WR

CFBD athlete 5158341

receiving · LONG
27
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
75
receiving · YPR
18.8
rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
0
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
-10
rushing · YPC
-10.0
MarcAnthony Parker · LB

CFBD athlete 5220511

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
4
defensive · SOLO
20
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
6
defensive · TOT
49
Marcus Bleazard · LB

CFBD athlete 4880685

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
1
defensive · SOLO
8
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2
defensive · TOT
15
Matt Reyes · DT

CFBD athlete 5158390

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
0
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
2
Matthew Seliga · S

CFBD athlete 5158371

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
13
interceptions · AVG
12.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
12
Maxwell Williams · S

CFBD athlete 5220483

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
1
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
5
Merrick Barlow · TE

CFBD athlete 5211746

receiving · LONG
41
receiving · REC
2
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
64
receiving · YPR
32.0
Michael Barrow · WR

CFBD athlete 5220469

fumbles · FUM
3
fumbles · LOST
2
fumbles · REC
0
kickReturns · AVG
16.0
kickReturns · LONG
16
kickReturns · NO
1
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
16
receiving · LONG
15
receiving · REC
7
receiving · TD
1
receiving · YDS
58
receiving · YPR
8.3
rushing · CAR
80
rushing · LONG
24
rushing · TD
1
rushing · YDS
439
rushing · YPC
5.5
Nick Bell · CB

CFBD athlete 5220488

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
4
kickReturns · AVG
19.8
kickReturns · LONG
31
kickReturns · NO
4
kickReturns · TD
0
kickReturns · YDS
79
Nolan Bartley · PK

CFBD athlete 5391330

kicking · FGA
7
kicking · FGM
4
kicking · LONG
34
kicking · PCT
0.571
kicking · PTS
34
kicking · XPA
24
kicking · XPM
22
Nolan McCamy · LB

CFBD athlete 5158362

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
2
defensive · SOLO
8
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
4.0
defensive · TOT
20
Phillip Hamilton · CB

CFBD athlete 5220499

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
11
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1.5
defensive · TOT
20
interceptions · AVG
0.0
interceptions · INT
1
interceptions · TD
0
interceptions · YDS
0
Ryan Brass · QB

CFBD athlete 5295377

rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
3
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
3
rushing · YPC
3.0
Sean Martin · CB

CFBD athlete 5391335

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
2
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
3
Stefan Egbe · RB

CFBD athlete 5158369

fumbles · FUM
1
fumbles · LOST
1
fumbles · REC
0
rushing · CAR
6
rushing · LONG
6
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
22
rushing · YPC
3.7
Tre Jones · WR

CFBD athlete 5220472

rushing · CAR
1
rushing · LONG
4
rushing · TD
0
rushing · YDS
4
rushing · YPC
4.0
Trent Gillis · LB

CFBD athlete 5295393

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
0
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
7
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
0
defensive · TOT
13
Truman Brasfield · WR

CFBD athlete 5391321

receiving · LONG
68
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
2
receiving · YDS
174
receiving · YPR
43.5
Vic Listorti · RB

CFBD athlete 5158373

fumbles · FUM
2
fumbles · LOST
2
fumbles · REC
0
receiving · LONG
39
receiving · REC
4
receiving · TD
0
receiving · YDS
72
receiving · YPR
18.0
rushing · CAR
42
rushing · LONG
35
rushing · TD
2
rushing · YDS
228
rushing · YPC
5.4
Will Miller · LB

CFBD athlete 5295423

defensive · PD
1
defensive · QB HUR
1
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
10
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
1
defensive · TOT
20
Xavyer Arrington · DL

CFBD athlete 5220518

defensive · PD
0
defensive · QB HUR
2
defensive · SACKS
0
defensive · SOLO
5
defensive · TD
0
defensive · TFL
2.5
defensive · TOT
13

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability
Unavailable
Measurement units
Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time
Unavailable
Forecast valid time
Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Navy +30.5

C1 in-sample cover rate 61% against the spread over 106 games (2017–2025) · rule chosen on these games · historical reference, not a cover probability.

Comparison line · CFBD median

Notre Dame -30.5

Bovada snapshot: Navy +30.5

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Notre Dame by 12.91

17.59 points toward Navy versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Navy.

  • Net EPA rating difference: -18.78
  • Fitted offset: +5.87
  • Fitted home field: 0.00

Reconciles to -12.91 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 1d6f4b626db76e5d810cfa6ac92fd4d0444dcea048e54d44a9cb4baa798e5a25 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 3b19fb37004c4531c740a643f5407aab0f7671bf403db56fc2ea4c14a5104d4d · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Navy · all values in points
Recorded valueEarlierLatestChange
Market spread+30.5+30.50.0
Model spread+12.91+12.910.0
Model gap+17.59+17.590.0

Negative spreads favor Navy; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256
e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256
c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256
907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256
979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
View recorded snapshot data
Model context & pick method

Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:
Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:
EPA-OLS
Training:
2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:
EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 1d6f4b626db76e5d810cfa6ac92fd4d0444dcea048e54d44a9cb4baa798e5a25. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:
EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Navy +30.5

Model gap +17.6 points

C1 rule: 14+ point gaps in weeks 6–9, 12–14 in weeks 10–16. Positive gaps favor Navy.

Win probabilities · separate sources

Navy win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
Unavailable
Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability
2%
Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Navy +30.5
Stacked ensemble
14%
Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Navy.

  • away elo: -11.45 (path difference 4.73)
  • away adjusted success: -11.19 (path difference 12.50)
  • away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +6.97 (path difference 8.50)
  • away adjusted epa: -6.10 (path difference 3.70)
  • away talent: -5.13 (path difference 2.67)
  • away adjusted epa allowed: -5.05 (path difference 1.27)
  • away adjusted success allowed: -4.77 (path difference 3.56)
  • home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +4.76 (path difference 2.51)
  • away adjusted second level yards allowed: -4.33 (path difference 3.74)
  • home adjusted open field yards allowed: +4.13 (path difference 1.92)
  • away adjusted rushing epa: +4.08 (path difference 3.84)
  • away adjusted standard down success allowed: -3.05 (path difference 4.89)
  • home adjusted epa: +2.88 (path difference 4.28)
  • home adjusted success: +2.86 (path difference 6.07)
  • away adjusted standard down success: +2.50 (path difference 1.60)
  • away adjusted passing down success: -2.44 (path difference 1.19)
  • home adjusted success allowed: +2.39 (path difference 4.33)
  • home adjusted line yards: +2.34 (path difference 1.96)
  • away adjusted passing epa allowed: +2.05 (path difference 3.39)
  • away adjusted line yards: -1.99 (path difference 2.12)
  • home talent: -1.88 (path difference 2.02)
  • home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -1.65 (path difference 0.21)
  • home adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.60 (path difference 0.46)
  • away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.54 (path difference 0.50)
  • home adjusted epa allowed: -1.50 (path difference 1.31)
  • home adjusted explosiveness: +1.26 (path difference 1.45)
  • away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.24 (path difference 1.64)
  • home adjusted second level yards: +1.21 (path difference 0.10)
  • away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -1.17 (path difference 0.03)
  • away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.12 (path difference 0.55)
  • home elo: -0.97 (path difference 0.35)
  • away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.96 (path difference 4.39)
  • home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.94 (path difference 0.26)
  • away adjusted second level yards: +0.78 (path difference 0.33)
  • home adjusted open field yards: +0.69 (path difference 0.39)
  • home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.62 (path difference 0.27)
  • away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.55 (path difference 0.17)
  • away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.54 (path difference 0.52)
  • away adjusted open field yards: +0.49 (path difference 0.95)
  • home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.48 (path difference 0.33)
  • home adjusted passing epa: +0.46 (path difference 0.79)
  • away adjusted passing epa: +0.37 (path difference 1.47)
  • home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.31 (path difference 0.24)
  • home adjusted standard down success: -0.23 (path difference 1.79)
  • home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.23 (path difference 0.21)
  • away adjusted line yards allowed: -0.20 (path difference 1.15)
  • home adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.16 (path difference 0.22)
  • week: +0.15 (path difference 0.64)
  • home adjusted passing down success: -0.14 (path difference 0.37)
  • home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.14 (path difference 0.03)
  • home adjusted rushing epa: -0.13 (path difference 0.32)
  • away adjusted explosiveness: +0.13 (path difference 0.06)
  • home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.12 (path difference 0.53)
  • away conference: -0.11 (path difference 0.37)
  • home conference: -0.09 (path difference 0.49)

Reconciles to 14.18 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs ea79ea9bb6c3351aa3b82d87fca8f87d267106993feea83739a735970a908829 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 8831f8ba61d5f5b342b98779efbd92605ddee47d21b8c39eb2fb5920690e472f · through week 8.

Output:
Home win probability (%), display only
Model:
StackedEnsemble
Training:
Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:
Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:
Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Notre Dame

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 118 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

PlayerAttemptsYPCSacksAttributed shareCaptured season attempts / YPC
Jonaz Walton

CFBD athlete 5159087

Week 5 vs North Carolina: 23 attempts · 5.2 YPC · 52.2% success · 0.117 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Stanford: 13 attempts · 13.9 YPC · 61.5% success · 0.871 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs BYU: 5 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.382 raw PPA.

417.8034.7%57 / 7.5
Nolan James Jr.

CFBD athlete 5189515

Week 5 vs North Carolina: 9 attempts · 7.2 YPC · 88.9% success · 0.361 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Stanford: 11 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 63.6% success · 0.632 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs BYU: 16 attempts · 4.8 YPC · 37.5% success · 0.156 raw PPA.

366.1030.5%81 / 5.1
Aneyas Williams

CFBD athlete 5079742

Week 5 vs North Carolina: 8 attempts · 5.3 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.216 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Stanford: 7 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 42.9% success · -0.090 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs BYU: 3 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.130 raw PPA.

184.3015.3%70 / 4.3
C.J. Carr

CFBD athlete 5079369

Week 5 vs North Carolina: 3 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 66.7% success · 1.291 raw PPA.

Week 6 vs Stanford: 5 attempts · 8.2 YPC · 80.0% success · 0.947 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs BYU: 6 attempts · 2.2 YPC · 16.7% success · -0.017 raw PPA.

144.6011.9%22 / 3.5
Javian Osborne

CFBD athlete 5160472

Week 6 vs Stanford: 6 attempts · 5.2 YPC · 83.3% success · 0.474 raw PPA.

65.205.1%11 / 3.2

Navy

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 172 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

PlayerAttemptsYPCSacksAttributed shareCaptured season attempts / YPC
Jackson Gutierrez

CFBD athlete 5220473

Week 6 vs Tulsa: 41 attempts · 5.7 YPC · 43.9% success · 0.175 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs UTSA: 21 attempts · 6.6 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.480 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs North Texas: 26 attempts · 8.7 YPC · 53.8% success · 0.576 raw PPA.

886.8051.2%148 / 5.9
Michael Barrow

CFBD athlete 5220469

Week 6 vs Tulsa: 14 attempts · 7.6 YPC · 64.3% success · 0.579 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs UTSA: 13 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 53.8% success · 0.121 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs North Texas: 20 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 35.0% success · 0.060 raw PPA.

475.4027.3%77 / 5.6
Vic Listorti

CFBD athlete 5158373

Week 6 vs Tulsa: 7 attempts · 4.7 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.375 raw PPA.

Week 7 vs UTSA: 4 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.063 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs North Texas: 3 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.133 raw PPA.

143.808.1%42 / 5.4
Braxton Woodson

CFBD athlete 5158343

Week 7 vs UTSA: 5 attempts · 14.6 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.571 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs North Texas: 6 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.194 raw PPA.

117.706.4%49 / 7.8
Charles Robinson

CFBD athlete 5220476

Week 6 vs Tulsa: 3 attempts · 4.7 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.644 raw PPA.

Week 8 vs North Texas: 4 attempts · 8.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.212 raw PPA.

76.904.1%11 / 6.5

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

MeasureNavyOffenseNotre DameDefenseNotre DameOffenseNavyDefense
PPA/play
+0.20
71st
-0.05
89th
+0.35
99th
+0.16
19th
Success rate
47.5%
81st
35.7%
85th
50.9%
96th
40.3%
53rd
Explosiveness
1.21
38th
1.19
64th
1.17
24th
1.39
7th
Standard-down PPA/play
+0.18
82nd
-0.11
86th
+0.34
99th
+0.08
34th
Passing-down PPA/play
+0.24
50th
+0.06
80th
+0.37
77th
+0.34
15th
Havoc allowed / created
13.5%
71st
20.6%
95th
10.3%
96th
13.3%
16th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:45 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:45 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

  • Spencer Porath · Notre Dame · PAAR 4.79 · 11 attempts
  • Nolan Bartley · Navy · PAAR -2.71 · 7 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.

Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Navy spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

Bovada

CFBD-reported opening: +29.5 · Snapshot spread: +30.5

First locally observed: +29.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 53.5 · Snapshot total: 56.5

Total · First locally observed: 53.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7

Home moneyline · Snapshot: Unavailable · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: Unavailable in the verified local archive · Observation age: unavailable

Away moneyline · Snapshot: Unavailable · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: Unavailable in the verified local archive · Observation age: unavailable

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +28.5 · Snapshot spread: +30.5

First locally observed: +28.5 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d

Total · CFBD-reported opening: 53.5 · Snapshot total: 56.5

Total · First locally observed: 53.5 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Total observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d

Home moneyline · Snapshot: +2000 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Home moneyline · First locally observed: +2200 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Home moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d

Away moneyline · Snapshot: -6500 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD

Away moneyline · First locally observed: -8000 · captured Oct 22, 2026, 06:01:46 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Away moneyline observation evidence

Capture SHA-256: c83aae5cdf39bf646f57eb0000ff0ed8f701059d814361b444e46ff57d8d3b4d

Navy

Net adjusted EPA/play -0.0 · 7 rated weeks · American Athletic

51st FBS percentile

Notre Dame

Net adjusted EPA/play +0.3 · 8 rated weeks · FBS Independents

99th FBS percentile

Travel

Notre Dame and Navy meet at a neutral site; no road distance applies.

Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.

The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.

Series history

Notre Dame leads 84–13, 1 tie in 98 meetings since 1927.

  • 2025Navy at Notre Dame10–49 · Notre Dame
  • 2024 · NNotre Dame at Navy51–14 · Notre Dame
  • 2023 · NNavy at Notre Dame3–42 · Notre Dame
  • 2022 · NNotre Dame at Navy35–32 · Notre Dame
  • 2021Navy at Notre Dame6–34 · Notre Dame
  • 2019Navy at Notre Dame20–52 · Notre Dame

CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.

Team style charts

Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.