Week 9 · 2026

Texas State at Boise State

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Texas State

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-16 (reported) · 2026-10-04 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-01T02:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Brad Jackson QB 3 games	50.0% 53 / 106 plays	70.0% 28 / 40 plays
Torrance Burgess Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	47.3% 26 / 55 plays
Jaylen Jenkins RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	44.4% 8 / 18 plays
Davian Jackson RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	46.2% 6 / 13 plays
Taji Atkins RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 3 plays
Juntavious Harris RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 1 / 3 plays
Cole Pryor RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays
Tom Flintoff P 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 68 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Amarion Atwood · DB

CFBD athlete 5077881

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Antavious Woody · DL

CFBD athlete 4816086

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Arvis Battle Jr. · TE

CFBD athlete 5217799

kickReturns · AVG: 7.0
kickReturns · LONG: 7
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 7
receiving · LONG: 1
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 1
receiving · YPR: 1.0

Ayden Jones · LB

CFBD athlete 5154582

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 37

Beau Sparks · WR

CFBD athlete 5152414

receiving · LONG: 63
receiving · REC: 25
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 339
receiving · YPR: 13.6

Blake Isbell · DL

CFBD athlete 5222547

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Blake Smith · TE

CFBD athlete 4685157

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 41
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 70
receiving · YPR: 10.0

Brad Jackson · QB

CFBD athlete 5148803

fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 194
passing · COMPLETIONS: 133
passing · INT: 5
passing · PCT: 0.686
passing · TD: 14
passing · YDS: 1606
passing · YPA: 8.3
rushing · CAR: 76
rushing · LONG: 63
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 382
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Bryce Carter · DL

CFBD athlete 4432676

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Chancellor Owens · DL

CFBD athlete 5156286

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Chase Davis · DB

CFBD athlete 5077812

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Chris Dawn Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5077873

receiving · LONG: 43
receiving · REC: 36
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 396
receiving · YPR: 11.0
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 10
rushing · YPC: 3.3

Cole Nilles · LB

CFBD athlete 5226287

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 14

Cole Pryor · RB

CFBD athlete 5258487

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 20
rushing · YPC: 5.0

Colt Sparks · DL

CFBD athlete 5209994

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Cordarian Powell · DB

CFBD athlete 5215565

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Craig Royal Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5295875

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 33

D'Ante Keys · DL

CFBD athlete 5258048

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Dameon Crowe · WR

CFBD athlete 5303264

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 18.5
kickReturns · LONG: 19
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 37
puntReturns · AVG: 22.7
puntReturns · LONG: 77
puntReturns · NO: 6
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 136
receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 37
receiving · YPR: 9.3

Darius Davis · LB

CFBD athlete 5303266

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 13

Davian Jackson · RB

CFBD athlete 5216509

kickReturns · AVG: 18.1
kickReturns · LONG: 23
kickReturns · NO: 7
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 127
receiving · LONG: 24
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 49
receiving · YPR: 12.3
rushing · CAR: 64
rushing · LONG: 57
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 315
rushing · YPC: 4.9

Dexter Ricks Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 4838691

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 7

Donterry Russell · DL

CFBD athlete 4794105

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 16

Dylan Cunanan · PK

CFBD athlete 5220121

kicking · FGA: 3
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0.000
kicking · PTS: 1
kicking · XPA: 2
kicking · XPM: 1

Gavin Parkhurst · QB

CFBD athlete 5202460

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 9
passing · COMPLETIONS: 8
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.889
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 114
passing · YPA: 12.7
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -3
rushing · YPC: -0.6

Greg Gipson Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5258054

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

J.P. Deeter · DL

CFBD athlete 4833619

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 6

Jacob Bonilla · PK

CFBD athlete 5295880

kicking · FGA: 11
kicking · FGM: 7
kicking · LONG: 51
kicking · PCT: 0.636
kicking · PTS: 53
kicking · XPA: 32
kicking · XPM: 32

Jake Simpson · TE

CFBD athlete 5121615

kickReturns · AVG: 9.0
kickReturns · LONG: 9
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 9
receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 7
receiving · YPR: 7.0

Jason Patterson · DL

CFBD athlete 5159271

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Javante Mackey · LB

CFBD athlete 4904970

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 26

Jayden Bradley · DB

CFBD athlete 5295874

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 25
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 47

Jayden Lawton · DB

CFBD athlete 4910801

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 20

Jaylen Harris · DL

CFBD athlete 5383815

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jaylen Jenkins · RB

CFBD athlete 4916885

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 21.6
kickReturns · LONG: 100
kickReturns · NO: 9
kickReturns · TD: 1
kickReturns · YDS: 194
receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 25
receiving · YPR: 8.3
rushing · CAR: 38
rushing · LONG: 22
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 196
rushing · YPC: 5.2

Jo'Laison Landry · DL

CFBD athlete 5078104

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 12

John Smith · DB

CFBD athlete 5383806

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Jonathan Davis · DL

CFBD athlete 5383807

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Jordan Martin · WR

CFBD athlete 5156893

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 34
receiving · YPR: 6.8

Jordan Sample · LB

CFBD athlete 5085348

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Josiah Graham · DL

CFBD athlete 3941258

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Juntavious Harris · RB

CFBD athlete 5269148

kickReturns · AVG: 16.5
kickReturns · LONG: 21
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 33
rushing · CAR: 12
rushing · LONG: 45
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 89
rushing · YPC: 7.4

Jussiah Ali · DL

CFBD athlete 5383812

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 3

Kaleb James · DL

CFBD athlete 4870761

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Kylen Evans · WR

CFBD athlete 5149265

receiving · LONG: 31
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 199
receiving · YPR: 18.1

LaKeyleon Graves · WR

CFBD athlete 5277007

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 49
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 56
receiving · YPR: 28.0

Malik Willis · DB

CFBD athlete 5157120

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10
puntReturns · AVG: 5.0
puntReturns · LONG: 5
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 5

Mekhi Buchanan · DL

CFBD athlete 5121605

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 3

Michael Patterson · DB

CFBD athlete 5077694

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 22
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Phillip Bradford · DL

CFBD athlete 5084220

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 12

Ryan Nolan · DB

CFBD athlete 5220914

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 29
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Simeon Garner · DL

CFBD athlete 5258046

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Skylar Lewis · WR

CFBD athlete 5215627

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Sully Burns · OL

CFBD athlete 4878107

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

TJ Burkhalter · LB

CFBD athlete 5248292

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 8

Ta'Derius Collins · DL

CFBD athlete 5120316

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Taji Atkins · RB

CFBD athlete 5147756

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 26.0
kickReturns · LONG: 26
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 26
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 19
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 26
rushing · YPC: 5.2

Terrence Cooks II · LB

CFBD athlete 4586313

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 40

Tice Williams · LB

CFBD athlete 5149747

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Tom Flintoff · P

CFBD athlete 5383813

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
punting · In 20: 4
punting · LONG: 53
punting · NO: 16
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 565
punting · YPP: 35.3
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -17
rushing · YPC: -17.0

Torrance Burgess Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5088888

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 6.0
puntReturns · LONG: 6
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 6
receiving · LONG: 31
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 86
receiving · YPR: 7.2
rushing · CAR: 118
rushing · LONG: 76
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 889
rushing · YPC: 7.5

Treylin Payne · LB

CFBD athlete 4702916

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 23

Trez Moore · DB

CFBD athlete 5159343

defensive · PD: 8
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 27
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 8.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 8

Tucker Cusano · WR

CFBD athlete 5236321

receiving · LONG: 41
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 132
receiving · YPR: 14.7

Ty Stamey · TE

CFBD athlete 5085497

receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 122
receiving · YPR: 13.6

Tymere Jackson · DL

CFBD athlete 5220909

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 23

William Mitchell · DB

CFBD athlete 5193336

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Zechariah Sample · WR

CFBD athlete 5138042

puntReturns · AVG: 3.0
puntReturns · LONG: 15
puntReturns · NO: 3
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 9
receiving · LONG: 69
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 161
receiving · YPR: 14.6

Boise State

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-11 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-01T02:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Maddux Madsen QB 3 games	48.1% 38 / 79 plays	64.3% 9 / 14 plays
Dylan Riley RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	40.0% 20 / 50 plays
Sire Gaines RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 15 / 30 plays
Harry Stewart III RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	36.4% 4 / 11 plays
Juelz Goff RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	20.0% 2 / 10 plays
Rasean Jones WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 1 / 2 plays
Terrious Favors WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 53 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Jones · WR

CFBD athlete 5215338

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 7
receiving · YPR: 7.0

Akeem Wright · WR

CFBD athlete 5120669

receiving · LONG: 40
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 205
receiving · YPR: 15.8

Arthur De Boachie · DB

CFBD athlete 5240766

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Austin Terry · TE

CFBD athlete 4832824

receiving · LONG: 4
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 4
receiving · YPR: 4.0

Ben Ford · WR

CFBD athlete 4714341

receiving · LONG: 31
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 137
receiving · YPR: 11.4

Boen Phelps · LB

CFBD athlete 5160733

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 41
interceptions · AVG: 13.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 13

Bol Bol · LB

CFBD athlete 5243947

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Caden Kellow · LS

CFBD athlete 5082621

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Cameron Bates · WR

CFBD athlete 5157187

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 24.7
puntReturns · LONG: 72
puntReturns · NO: 3
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 74
receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 72
receiving · YPR: 7.2

Canaan Moore · PK

CFBD athlete 5305874

kicking · FGA: 11
kicking · FGM: 10
kicking · LONG: 49
kicking · PCT: 0.909
kicking · PTS: 57
kicking · XPA: 27
kicking · XPM: 27

Carter Kuchenbuch · TE

CFBD athlete 5218647

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 13.0

Cole Miller · DB

CFBD athlete 5160732

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Colton Boomer · PK

CFBD athlete 5085396

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Darren Morris · WR

CFBD athlete 5084429

receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 5
receiving · YPR: 5.0

David Latu · DL

CFBD athlete 5160965

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4

Demetrius Freeney · DB

CFBD athlete 5159949

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Derek Ganter Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5152111

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 28

Deshawn Toilolo · LB

CFBD athlete 5216507

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Deuce Alailefaleula · DL

CFBD athlete 5290678

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Dylan Riley · RB

CFBD athlete 5146712

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 22.7
kickReturns · LONG: 30
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 68
receiving · LONG: 44
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 125
receiving · YPR: 10.4
rushing · CAR: 140
rushing · LONG: 83
rushing · TD: 8
rushing · YDS: 963
rushing · YPC: 6.9

Harry Stewart III · RB

CFBD athlete 5126514

rushing · CAR: 16
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 51
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Jaden Mickey · DB

CFBD athlete 4685474

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Jake Ripp · LB

CFBD athlete 4878545

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 19
interceptions · AVG: 21.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 21

Jayden Virgin · LB

CFBD athlete 5091748

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5
defensive · TOT: 19

JeRico Washington Jr. · DB

CFBD athlete 5154222

defensive · PD: 6
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 14

Jeremyah Lane · WR

CFBD athlete 5382285

fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 1.0
puntReturns · LONG: 3
puntReturns · NO: 5
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 5

Josiah Alanis · DB

CFBD athlete 5210484

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Juelz Goff · RB

CFBD athlete 5124975

rushing · CAR: 17
rushing · LONG: 18
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 53
rushing · YPC: 3.1

Keawe Browne · TE

CFBD athlete 5382290

receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 29
receiving · YPR: 9.7

Kyle Hall · DB

CFBD athlete 5382283

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 7

Logan Brantley · LB

CFBD athlete 4923038

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 17

Lopez Sanusi · DL

CFBD athlete 5186905

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Madden Soliai · DB

CFBD athlete 5382282

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 21

Maddux Madsen · QB

CFBD athlete 4870513

passing · ATT: 189
passing · COMPLETIONS: 124
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.656
passing · TD: 14
passing · YDS: 1445
passing · YPA: 7.6
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 33
rushing · LONG: 23
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 144
rushing · YPC: 4.4

Mana Tuioti · LB

CFBD athlete 5239145

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 16
kickReturns · AVG: 12.0
kickReturns · LONG: 12
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 12

Matt Wagner · TE

CFBD athlete 5080888

receiving · LONG: 34
receiving · REC: 23
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 261
receiving · YPR: 11.3

Max Stege · LB

CFBD athlete 5102758

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 13

Michael Madrie · DL

CFBD athlete 5085877

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Mikaio Edward · DL

CFBD athlete 5165052

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 12

Oscar Doyle · P

CFBD athlete 5229955

punting · In 20: 6
punting · LONG: 58
punting · NO: 20
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 876
punting · YPP: 43.8

Quinton Brown · WR

CFBD athlete 5209425

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 6.5

Qumonte Williams Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5252200

kickReturns · AVG: 0.0
kickReturns · LONG: 0
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 36
receiving · YPR: 9.0

Rasean Jones · WR

CFBD athlete 5290573

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 63
receiving · REC: 28
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 428
receiving · YPR: 15.3
rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 19
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 39
rushing · YPC: 6.5

Roman Caywood · LB

CFBD athlete 5149074

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 5

Roman Tillmon · DB

CFBD athlete 5155049

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 19
interceptions · AVG: 22.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 22

Romeo Carter · WR

CFBD athlete 5302868

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Sherrod Smith · DB

CFBD athlete 5295048

defensive · PD: 7
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 23

Sire Gaines · RB

CFBD athlete 5147379

receiving · LONG: 38
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 77
receiving · YPR: 7.7
rushing · CAR: 75
rushing · LONG: 25
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 418
rushing · YPC: 5.6

Syncere Brackett-Lambey · LB

CFBD athlete 5295051

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Tahj Crutchfield · DB

CFBD athlete 5215383

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Terrious Favors · WR

CFBD athlete 5263666

receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 27
receiving · YPR: 13.5
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 10
rushing · YPC: 10.0

Travis Anderson · DB

CFBD athlete 5147509

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 30
interceptions · AVG: 0.3
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 1

Zyhaire Lewis · LB

CFBD athlete 5331484

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Boise State -11.25

EPA-OLS history for 7-14 point gaps: 46% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 97 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

CFBD median

DraftKings snapshot: Boise State -11.5

Book quote differs from the comparison line.

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Boise State by 18.50

7.25 points toward Boise State versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Boise State.

Net EPA rating difference: +14.56
Fitted offset: +5.87
Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to 18.50 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 1bd823735795fcf8b20abd6a5bbb87e08ac6f19f4fe361b49e27005405374c57 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 41759564e0b7f6de58a7d91c9d7b868c4cb307685ea1a8fe7220242b2b4d0c50 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved -0.5 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Boise State · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest	Change
Market spread	-10.75	-11.25	-0.5
Model spread	-18.5	-18.5	0.0
Model gap	+7.75	+7.25	-0.5

Negative spreads favor Boise State; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 1bd823735795fcf8b20abd6a5bbb87e08ac6f19f4fe361b49e27005405374c57. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Boise State -11.25

Model gap +7.3 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Boise State.

Win probabilities · separate sources

Boise State win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 78%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Boise State -11
Stacked ensemble: 82%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Boise State.

home elo: +11.36 (path difference 6.26)
away adjusted success: -11.23 (path difference 11.39)
home adjusted success: +8.17 (path difference 5.92)
home adjusted passing epa: +6.00 (path difference 6.03)
home adjusted second level yards: +4.07 (path difference 0.28)
home adjusted success allowed: +3.42 (path difference 1.20)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +3.39 (path difference 4.68)
home adjusted epa: -3.12 (path difference 2.29)
home adjusted line yards: +3.09 (path difference 1.32)
home adjusted explosiveness: +3.08 (path difference 3.22)
away adjusted rushing epa: +2.83 (path difference 5.14)
away adjusted passing down success: +2.75 (path difference 0.25)
away adjusted success allowed: +2.19 (path difference 1.20)
home adjusted epa allowed: -2.15 (path difference 2.57)
home adjusted rushing epa: +2.13 (path difference 3.72)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: -2.13 (path difference 1.41)
home conference: +1.99 (path difference 1.28)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.84 (path difference 0.88)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +1.73 (path difference 2.24)
home talent: +1.50 (path difference 0.62)
away conference: +1.44 (path difference 1.45)
home adjusted standard down success: +1.41 (path difference 0.06)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.33 (path difference 0.40)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.29 (path difference 0.31)
away adjusted standard down success: +1.15 (path difference 4.04)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.15 (path difference 1.85)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.13 (path difference 0.94)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -1.12 (path difference 0.12)
away adjusted passing epa: +1.07 (path difference 0.31)
away talent: -1.06 (path difference 0.58)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.01 (path difference 0.82)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.01 (path difference 0.17)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.94 (path difference 0.64)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.87 (path difference 0.88)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.74 (path difference 1.89)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.74 (path difference 0.12)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.70 (path difference 1.09)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.66 (path difference 0.61)
away adjusted explosiveness: +0.65 (path difference 0.63)
away elo: +0.60 (path difference 0.76)
away adjusted epa: -0.59 (path difference 0.21)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.56 (path difference 0.03)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.55 (path difference 1.25)
away adjusted line yards: -0.49 (path difference 1.20)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.47 (path difference 0.98)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: +0.40 (path difference 0.27)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.37 (path difference 0.69)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -0.32 (path difference 1.01)
home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.26 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted second level yards: +0.23 (path difference 0.70)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.16 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted open field yards: -0.12 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted epa allowed: +0.07 (path difference 0.09)
week: +0.05 (path difference 0.91)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.05 (path difference 0.34)

Reconciles to 81.66 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs dcac4e91c3848b8b6e59f75fd41f8724a7e504295c92e02f8f728ee6643988b7 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 22999ec6009042c5f23e4079df9b600ace75db112f60d64193097c380be2f66c · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Texas State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 141 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Torrance Burgess Jr. CFBD athlete 5088888 Week 5 vs San Diego State: 21 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.035 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Colorado State: 24 attempts · 9.3 YPC · 58.3% success · 0.495 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Utah State: 10 attempts · 5.1 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.084 raw PPA.	55	6.4	0	39.0%	117 / 7.5
Brad Jackson CFBD athlete 5148803 Week 5 vs San Diego State: 22 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 57.9% success · 0.368 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Colorado State: 13 attempts · 13.9 YPC · 84.6% success · 1.559 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Utah State: 12 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.637 raw PPA.	47	5.9	7	33.3%	75 / 4.9
Jaylen Jenkins CFBD athlete 4916885 Week 5 vs San Diego State: 1 attempts · 0.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.658 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Colorado State: 10 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.469 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Utah State: 7 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 28.6% success · -0.433 raw PPA.	18	4.9	0	12.8%	38 / 5.2
Davian Jackson CFBD athlete 5216509 Week 5 vs San Diego State: 13 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 46.2% success · 0.030 raw PPA.	13	4.1	0	9.2%	63 / 4.9
Taji Atkins CFBD athlete 5147756 Week 7 vs Colorado State: 2 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.190 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Utah State: 1 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.290 raw PPA.	3	1.7	0	2.1%	5 / 5.2

Boise State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 119 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Dylan Riley CFBD athlete 5146712 Week 5 vs Utah State: 18 attempts · 5.2 YPC · 38.9% success · 0.130 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Fresno State: 19 attempts · 7.9 YPC · 47.4% success · 0.351 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Washington State: 13 attempts · 9.8 YPC · 30.8% success · 0.470 raw PPA.	50	7.4	0	42.0%	139 / 6.9
Sire Gaines CFBD athlete 5147379 Week 6 vs Fresno State: 20 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 55.0% success · 0.381 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Washington State: 10 attempts · 6.4 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.436 raw PPA.	30	6.1	0	25.2%	75 / 5.6
Maddux Madsen CFBD athlete 4870513 Week 5 vs Utah State: 7 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.694 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Fresno State: 4 attempts · 0.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.075 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Washington State: 4 attempts · 8.5 YPC · 75.0% success · 1.081 raw PPA.	15	5.3	1	12.6%	30 / 4.2
Harry Stewart III CFBD athlete 5126514 Week 5 vs Utah State: 9 attempts · 2.9 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.334 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Washington State: 2 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.193 raw PPA.	11	3.3	0	9.2%	16 / 3.2
Juelz Goff CFBD athlete 5124975 Week 5 vs Utah State: 6 attempts · 2.3 YPC · 16.7% success · -0.353 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Washington State: 4 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.124 raw PPA.	10	2.6	0	8.4%	17 / 3.1

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	Boise StateOffense	Texas StateDefense	Texas StateOffense	Boise StateDefense
PPA/play	+0.32 93rd	+0.11 37th	+0.25 84th	+0.02 71st
Success rate	47.7% 82nd	43.3% 24th	50.0% 93rd	36.1% 82nd
Explosiveness	1.25 58th	1.23 49th	1.26 61st	1.56 0th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.24 91st	+0.04 45th	+0.15 71st	-0.04 72nd
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.51 94th	+0.23 37th	+0.54 96th	+0.11 72nd
Havoc allowed / created	9.1% 97th	14.6% 32nd	12.4% 82nd	18.3% 82nd

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:45 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:45 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Dylan Cunanan · Texas State · PAAR -7.85 · 3 attempts
Jacob Bonilla · Texas State · PAAR -2.29 · 10 attempts
Canaan Moore · Boise State · PAAR 4.63 · 10 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Boise State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -12.5 · Snapshot spread: -11.5

First locally observed: -11.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence