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Boise State

2026 season

Pac-12
2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

Boise State's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 27 across 8 systems; best 9, worst 32, so they disagree by 23 places.

Lab EPA
#9
Through week 92026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS
#27
down 32026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 9 · built 2026-11-06T12:26:24.430328+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+
#31
down 12026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 10 · captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo
#32
down 42026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9 · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI
#32
no change2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE
#13
no change · Through week 9 · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9 · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS
#27
down 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA
#9
down 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record
#19 of 138
Schedule strength
#79 of 138
Remaining schedule strength
#92 of 138
Game control
#23 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall
#31 of 138
Offense
#13 of 138
Defense
#83 of 138
Special teams
#64 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

Boise State · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

7-1 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 10; captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

0.185 net EPA/play

#9

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 9; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

8.33 points

#27 · Down 3 places since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 9 · built 2026-11-06T12:26:24.430328+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 8 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin +12.31 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -2.05, schedule #69 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average +0.97. That is worth +10.26 on its own; the preseason prior of +1.72 still carries 23% of the weight, giving +8.33.

How each game enters this SRS rating

Boise State · 2026, through CFBD Week 9. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

GameRaw margin → transformedVenue adjustmentRecency weightFit shareOpponent ratingMargin termOpponent termTotal term
Week 1 · Oregon
away · 2026-09-05 · ID 401858433
-7.00 → -7.00+2.500.73498.32%+9.21-0.3750.7670.392
Week 2 · Memphis
home · 2026-09-12 · ID 401860881
+18.00 → +18.00-2.500.76378.65%+4.731.3410.4091.750
Week 3 · South Dakota
home · 2026-09-20 · ID 401860885
+14.00 → +14.00-2.500.79378.99%-25.00 (fixed lower division)1.034-2.248-1.214
Week 4 · Western Michigan
away · 2026-09-26 · ID 401860897
+25.00 → +25.00+2.500.82499.34%+0.352.5700.0332.602
Week 5 · Utah State
home · 2026-10-03 · ID 401860898
+19.00 → +19.00-2.500.85729.71%-5.101.602-0.4961.107
Week 6 · Fresno State
away · 2026-10-11 · ID 401860901
+7.00 → +7.00+2.500.890910.09%+3.430.9590.3461.305
Week 8 · Washington State
away · 2026-10-24 · ID 401860907
+21.00 → +21.00+2.500.962210.90%-6.882.562-0.7501.811
Week 9 · Texas State
home · 2026-11-01 · ID 401860908
+1.00 → +1.00-2.501.000011.33%+3.12-0.1700.3540.184

Game terms +7.94 points; prior term +0.39 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +8.33 points. The preseason prior is +1.72 with 22.66% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±8.8 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 8 current games; prior available.

2026, through CFBD Week 9; generated 2026-11-06T12:26:24.430328+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

11.1 SP+ points

#31 · Down 1 place

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 10 · captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 10; captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

17.36 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#13 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 9; model core-v1; captured 2026-11-06T12:03:20.826325+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense 16.45 on 479 plays; defense -0.91 on 395 plays.

2026, through regular Week 9; model core-v1; captured 2026-11-06T12:03:20.826325+00:00

CFBD CORE ratingCORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks Boise State 18 places higher than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 9 and 10. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches
Record
7-1 · conf 4-0 · home 4-0 · away 3-1 · expected wins 6.5
Polls (Week 10)
Coaches Poll #21 · AP Top 25 #20
CFP latest
#25 · 2026 regular Week 10 · captured 2026-11-06
CFP final
not published
Against the spread
2026: 4-4 ATS (+2.8 avg) · 2025: 9-5 ATS (-3.1 avg)
Head coach
Spencer Danielson · hired 2023-12-03 · 24-8 over 4 captured seasons
Recruiting classes
2024 #64 (181 pts) · 2025 #62 (189 pts) · 2026 #51 (206 pts)
Returning
66% of production · 73% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
CategoryProductionUsage
Passing94%100%
Receiving40%35%
Rushing100%81%

Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-11-06. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-11-06 UTC

Position groupCommitsAvg. starsAvg. ratingTotal rating
Defensive Back142.860.838511.74
Defensive Line183.000.849015.28
Linebacker73.000.85425.98
Offensive Line142.930.843411.81
Quarterback62.830.83955.04
Receiver193.000.850716.16
Running Back43.250.88123.52
Special Teams152.930.833512.50

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / historyMetricValuePlays / attemptsOverall usageUsage detailRecruiting
Maddux Madsen · QB

CFBD athlete 4870513. Boise State (2022–2026)

Passing WEPA0.55521044.5%
Pass 94.6% · Rush 9.4%

1st 35.5% · 2nd 39.8% · 3rd 67.2%

Standard downs 37.2% · Passing downs 62.0%

2022: 3★ · 0.8326
Dylan Riley · RB

CFBD athlete 5146712. Boise State (2024–2026)

Rushing WEPA0.33614531.3%
Pass 7.9% · Rush 49.5%

1st 39.1% · 2nd 35.6% · 3rd 11.2%

Standard downs 37.5% · Passing downs 16.4%

2024: 3★ · 0.8719
Sire Gaines · RB

CFBD athlete 5147379. Boise State (2024–2026)

Rushing WEPA0.3156023.4%
Pass 8.0% · Rush 35.6%

1st 23.6% · 2nd 29.1% · 3rd 16.9%

Standard downs 26.3% · Passing downs 15.8%

2024: 3★ · 0.8731
Maddux Madsen · QB

CFBD athlete 4870513. Boise State (2022–2026)

Rushing WEPA0.3693344.5%
Pass 94.6% · Rush 9.4%

1st 35.5% · 2nd 39.8% · 3rd 67.2%

Standard downs 37.2% · Passing downs 62.0%

2022: 3★ · 0.8326
Canaan Moore · PK

CFBD athlete 5305874. Boise State (2025–2026)

Kicker PAAR5.01011—
Pass — · Rush —

1st — · 2nd — · 3rd —

Standard downs — · Passing downs —

Not linked
AJ Jones · WR

CFBD athlete 5215338. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.5%
Pass 5.9% · Rush 0.0%

1st 2.8% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 3.3% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked
Akeem Wright · WR

CFBD athlete 5120669. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——6.0%
Pass 14.5% · Rush 0.0%

1st 6.3% · 2nd 2.6% · 3rd 10.3%

Standard downs 4.9% · Passing downs 8.8%

Not linked
Austin Terry · TE

CFBD athlete 4832824. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.9%
Pass 4.8% · Rush 0.0%

1st 2.8% · 2nd 2.0% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 2.3%

Not linked
Ben Ford · WR

CFBD athlete 4714341. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——3.5%
Pass 8.8% · Rush 0.0%

1st 5.8% · 2nd 0.7% · 3rd 2.4%

Standard downs 3.8% · Passing downs 2.5%

Not linked
Cameron Bates · WR

CFBD athlete 5157187. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——4.5%
Pass 10.8% · Rush 0.0%

1st 1.5% · 2nd 4.9% · 3rd 11.1%

Standard downs 3.6% · Passing downs 6.8%

Not linked
Carter Kuchenbuch · TE

CFBD athlete 5218647. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.6%
Pass 4.8% · Rush 0.0%

1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.8% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 5.6%

Not linked
Darren Morris · WR

CFBD athlete 5084429. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.4%
Pass 3.4% · Rush 0.0%

1st 1.1% · 2nd 1.4% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 0.6% · Passing downs 3.5%

Not linked
Harry Stewart III · RB

CFBD athlete 5126514. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——5.1%
Pass 0.0% · Rush 8.8%

1st 3.3% · 2nd 3.4% · 3rd 9.5%

Standard downs 5.1% · Passing downs 5.1%

Not linked
Juelz Goff · RB

CFBD athlete 5124975. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——5.6%
Pass 0.0% · Rush 9.8%

1st 5.2% · 2nd 8.5% · 3rd 2.7%

Standard downs 4.6% · Passing downs 7.7%

Not linked
Keawe Browne · TE

CFBD athlete 5382290. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——4.7%
Pass 11.0% · Rush 0.0%

1st 4.4% · 2nd 2.7% · 3rd 8.9%

Standard downs 2.8% · Passing downs 8.6%

Not linked
Matt Wagner · TE

CFBD athlete 5080888. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——7.2%
Pass 17.4% · Rush 0.0%

1st 4.7% · 2nd 7.9% · 3rd 11.2%

Standard downs 6.3% · Passing downs 9.4%

Not linked
Max Cutforth · QB

CFBD athlete 5160730. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——14.9%
Pass 27.7% · Rush 0.0%

1st 15.4% · 2nd 10.7% · 3rd 17.6%

Standard downs 10.2% · Passing downs 25.0%

Not linked
Quinton Brown · WR

CFBD athlete 5209425. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——3.7%
Pass 8.8% · Rush 0.0%

1st 5.6% · 2nd 3.6% · 3rd 0.0%

Standard downs 3.3% · Passing downs 4.8%

Not linked
Qumonte Williams Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5252200. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.0%
Pass 4.8% · Rush 0.0%

1st 1.0% · 2nd 2.7% · 3rd 3.5%

Standard downs 1.6% · Passing downs 3.1%

Not linked
Rasean Jones · WR

CFBD athlete 5290573. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——11.6%
Pass 25.1% · Rush 2.1%

1st 11.8% · 2nd 11.0% · 3rd 10.7%

Standard downs 9.7% · Passing downs 16.0%

Not linked
Terrious Favors · WR

CFBD athlete 5263666. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——2.2%
Pass 2.9% · Rush 1.6%

1st 1.0% · 2nd 3.9% · 3rd 2.3%

Standard downs 1.9% · Passing downs 3.0%

Not linked
Troy Grizzle · TE

CFBD athlete 5219112. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.

Not available——1.3%
Pass 3.6% · Rush 0.0%

1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 6.7%

Standard downs 1.9% · Passing downs 0.0%

Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 11 reported
PlayerFromDateStars / ratingEligibility
Cam Jamerson · CBTCU2026-01-133★ / 0.8600Immediate
Darren Morris · WRSouthern2026-01-06— / —Immediate
Harry Stewart III · RBKansas2026-01-083★ / —Immediate
JeRico Washington Jr. · CBKennesaw State2026-01-093★ / 0.8300Immediate
Juelz Goff · RBPittsburgh2026-01-123★ / 0.8600Immediate
Logan Brantley · LBKansas2026-01-053★ / 0.8400Immediate
Mikaio Edward · DLCentral Washington2026-01-133★ / 0.8500Immediate
Roman Tillmon · SSouth Dakota2026-01-143★ / 0.8600Immediate
Taebron Bennie-Powell · SNotre Dame2026-01-123★ / 0.8500Immediate
Tyler Ethridge · OTNot reported2026-01-103★ / 0.8300Immediate
Zander Esty · IOLOregon State2026-01-193★ / 0.8400Immediate
Outgoing · 21 reported
PlayerToDateStars / ratingEligibility
Austin Bolt · WRNot reported2026-01-133★ / —Immediate
Braxton Fely · DLOklahoma2026-09-033★ / —Immediate
Breezy Dubar · RBMissouri State2026-01-163★ / 0.8400Immediate
Chase Martin · LBCal Poly2026-01-123★ / 0.8400Immediate
Chris Marshall · WRArkansas2026-01-113★ / 0.8700Immediate
Clay Martineau · LBNew Mexico2026-01-203★ / 0.8500Immediate
Davon Banks · CBNot reported2025-12-263★ / —Immediate
Eyitayo Omotinugbon · IOLNot reported2025-12-283★ / —Immediate
Greg Ard · RBUT Martin2026-01-233★ / 0.8500Immediate
Hall Schmidt · OTUCLA2026-01-053★ / 0.8300Immediate
Hayden Hanks · EDGENot reported2025-12-233★ / —Immediate
JJ Talo · IOLNot reported2025-12-093★ / 0.8300Immediate
Ja'Bree Bickham · SNorth Texas2026-01-123★ / 0.8600Immediate
Jarrett Reeser · PNot reported2025-12-25— / —Immediate
Jaylen Webb · SNevada2026-01-123★ / 0.8600Immediate
Jeremiah Earby · CBMichigan2026-10-143★ / —Immediate
Kaleb Annett · QBUCF2026-01-183★ / 0.8300Immediate
Kamryn Jones · WRNot reported2025-12-193★ / 0.8500Immediate
Roland Podesta · PCoastal Carolina2026-01-173★ / —Immediate
Ty Benefield · SLSU2026-01-064★ / 0.9400Immediate
Tyler Keinath · IOLNew Mexico State2026-01-213★ / 0.8500Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at Boise State. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

Spencer Danielson · career 24–8 across 4 seasons and 1 schools

Tenure timeline · 9 appointments
  1. 2023–present · Spencer Danielson · active at capture

    24–8 · 32 attributed games · 4 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Hired 2023-12-03. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  2. 2021–2023 · Andy Avalos

    22–14 · 36 attributed games · 3 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Hired 2021-01-08. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  3. 2014–2020 · Bryan Harsin

    69–19 · 88 attributed games · 7 seasons

    Hired 2013-12-11. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  4. 2006–2013 · Chris Petersen

    92–12 · 104 attributed games · 8 seasons

    Hired 2005-12-16. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  5. 2001–2005 · Dan Hawkins

    53–11 · 64 attributed games · 5 seasons

    Hired 2000-12-02. Exact effective dates unavailable.

  6. 1998–2000 · Dirk Koetter

    26–10 · 36 attributed games · 3 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  7. 1997–1997 · Houston Nutt

    4–7 · 11 attributed games · 1 seasons

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  8. 1996–1996 · Tom Mason

    1–9 · 10 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

  9. 1996–1996 · Pokey Allen

    1–1 · 2 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution

    Exact effective dates unavailable.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coachRecordConferencePostseasonSP+SRSRecruiting rankFinal poll
2026 · Spencer Danielson · incomplete attribution0–0——9.411.851—
2025 · Spencer Danielson9–56–20–13.14.362—
2024 · Spencer Danielson12–28–00–110.19.9648
2023 · Andy Avalos · incomplete attribution5–5——5.96.467—
2023 · Spencer Danielson · incomplete attribution3–1——5.96.467—
2022 · Andy Avalos10–48–11–05.7162—
2021 · Andy Avalos7–55–30–09.412.470—
2020 · Bryan Harsin5–25–10–06.77.765—
2019 · Bryan Harsin12–29–00–18.18.95023
2018 · Bryan Harsin10–37–20–012.29.357—
2017 · Bryan Harsin11–38–11–09.17.76422
2016 · Bryan Harsin10–36–20–111.56.968—
2015 · Bryan Harsin9–45–31–011.88.158—
Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-11-02 13:51:41.272114 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-11-01 14:05:52 UTC · calculated 2026-11-02 13:47:25 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-11-02 13:57:25 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

StatisticOffense rank / populationPercentileDefense rank / populationPercentile
PPA / play9 / 13894.253 / 13862.0
Success rate26 / 13881.823 / 13883.9
Explosiveness51 / 13863.5138 / 1380.0
Standard-down success38 / 13873.020 / 13886.1
Passing-down success11 / 13892.773 / 13847.4
Pass PPA12 / 13892.032 / 13877.4
Rush PPA16 / 13889.191 / 13834.3
Pass explosiveness58 / 13858.4138 / 1380.0
Rush explosiveness35 / 13875.2126 / 1388.8
Line yards22 / 13884.739 / 13872.3
Second-level yards97 / 13829.925 / 13882.5
Open-field yards36 / 13874.5126 / 1388.8
Stuff rate18 / 13887.6T7 / 13895.3
Power success12 / 13892.0T91 / 13832.8
Havoc4 / 13897.8T34 / 13875.5
Front-seven havocT9 / 13893.4T48 / 13865.3
DB havocT12 / 13891.6T22 / 13883.9
Points / opportunity7 / 13895.633 / 13876.6
Average field positionT132 / 1384.0T104 / 13824.5
Field-position expected points129 / 1386.695 / 13831.4

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Maddux Madsen · QBUsage 44.5% · Avg PPA 0.445 · Total 115.206
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.445115.20644.5%
Pass0.40993.17094.6%
Rush0.71122.0369.4%
1st down0.26223.81635.5%
2nd down0.39129.74439.8%
3rd down0.59746.55667.2%
Standard downs0.30947.27337.2%
Passing downs0.64167.93362.0%
Dylan Riley · RBUsage 31.3% · Avg PPA 0.252 · Total 45.840
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.25245.84031.3%
Pass0.2995.6807.9%
Rush0.24640.16049.5%
1st down0.18918.93939.1%
2nd down0.30320.59235.6%
3rd down0.3254.22811.2%
Standard downs0.23035.40937.5%
Passing downs0.37310.43016.4%
Sire Gaines · RBUsage 23.4% · Avg PPA 0.274 · Total 23.565
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.27423.56523.4%
Pass0.3334.0018.0%
Rush0.26419.56435.6%
1st down0.29211.37923.6%
2nd down0.32811.15229.1%
3rd down0.7318.76716.9%
Standard downs0.23216.26426.3%
Passing downs0.4567.30215.8%
Max Cutforth · QBUsage 14.9% · Avg PPA 0.998 · Total 12.980
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.99812.98014.9%
Pass0.99812.98027.7%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.7284.36815.4%
2nd down0.6181.85410.7%
3rd down1.0633.19017.6%
Standard downs0.7284.36810.2%
Passing downs1.2308.61225.0%
Rasean Jones · WRUsage 11.6% · Avg PPA 0.794 · Total 46.072
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.79446.07211.6%
Pass0.84643.97825.1%
Rush0.3492.0942.1%
1st down0.61015.87111.8%
2nd down0.65911.86211.0%
3rd down0.96410.60710.7%
Standard downs0.65422.2229.7%
Passing downs0.99423.85016.0%
Matt Wagner · TEUsage 7.2% · Avg PPA 0.564 · Total 23.684
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.56423.6847.2%
Pass0.56423.68417.4%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.3063.6694.7%
2nd down0.5528.2867.9%
3rd down0.4515.85711.2%
Standard downs0.53713.9546.3%
Passing downs0.6089.7309.4%
Akeem Wright · WRUsage 6.0% · Avg PPA 0.574 · Total 20.078
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.57420.0786.0%
Pass0.57420.07814.5%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.1111.7696.3%
2nd down0.3771.8862.6%
3rd down0.7899.47110.3%
Standard downs0.0240.4864.9%
Passing downs1.30619.5918.8%
Juelz Goff · RBUsage 5.6% · Avg PPA -0.149 · Total -2.978
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.149-2.9785.6%
Pass—0.0000.0%
Rush-0.149-2.9789.8%
1st down-0.134-1.0725.2%
2nd down-0.252-2.5178.5%
3rd down0.3060.6112.7%
Standard downs-0.189-2.0764.6%
Passing downs-0.100-0.9027.7%
Harry Stewart III · RBUsage 5.1% · Avg PPA -0.406 · Total -7.307
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.406-7.3075.1%
Pass—0.0000.0%
Rush-0.406-7.3078.8%
1st down-1.531-7.6563.3%
2nd down-0.243-0.9713.4%
3rd down0.5253.6759.5%
Standard downs-0.644-7.7245.1%
Passing downs0.0700.4175.1%
Keawe Browne · TEUsage 4.7% · Avg PPA 0.163 · Total 1.625
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.1631.6254.7%
Pass0.1631.62511.0%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.4981.9924.4%
2nd down0.4020.8042.7%
3rd down-0.293-1.1718.9%
Standard downs0.4981.9922.8%
Passing downs-0.061-0.3678.6%
Cameron Bates · WRUsage 4.5% · Avg PPA 0.679 · Total 13.588
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.67913.5884.5%
Pass0.67913.58810.8%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.2550.7641.5%
2nd down0.4192.9354.9%
3rd down0.9899.88911.1%
Standard downs0.99110.9063.6%
Passing downs0.2982.6836.8%
Quinton Brown · WRUsage 3.7% · Avg PPA -0.040 · Total -0.120
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.040-0.1203.7%
Pass-0.040-0.1208.8%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down-0.769-1.5385.6%
2nd down1.4191.4193.6%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs-0.769-1.5383.3%
Passing downs1.4191.4194.8%
Ben Ford · WRUsage 3.5% · Avg PPA 0.659 · Total 9.878
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.6599.8783.5%
Pass0.6599.8788.8%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.7998.7935.8%
2nd down2.3442.3440.7%
3rd down1.4572.9142.4%
Standard downs0.3854.6203.8%
Passing downs1.7535.2582.5%
AJ Jones · WRUsage 2.5% · Avg PPA 0.936 · Total 1.871
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.9361.8712.5%
Pass0.9361.8715.9%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down-0.798-0.7982.8%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs0.9361.8713.3%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Terrious Favors · WRUsage 2.2% · Avg PPA 0.905 · Total 4.525
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.9054.5252.2%
Pass0.9552.8652.9%
Rush0.8301.6591.6%
1st down0.9990.9991.0%
2nd down0.0610.1843.9%
3rd down3.3413.3412.3%
Standard downs0.4931.4791.9%
Passing downs1.5233.0453.0%
Qumonte Williams Jr. · WRUsage 2.0% · Avg PPA 0.122 · Total 1.101
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall0.1221.1012.0%
Pass0.1221.1014.8%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down0.1370.2751.0%
2nd down-0.047-0.1902.7%
3rd down0.3391.0163.5%
Standard downs-0.118-0.5911.6%
Passing downs0.4231.6923.1%
Austin Terry · TEUsage 1.9% · Avg PPA -0.499 · Total -1.497
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.499-1.4971.9%
Pass-0.499-1.4974.8%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down-0.701-1.4022.8%
2nd down-0.095-0.0952.0%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs-0.701-1.4021.8%
Passing downs-0.095-0.0952.3%
Carter Kuchenbuch · TEUsage 1.6% · Avg PPA 1.773 · Total 1.773
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall1.7731.7731.6%
Pass1.7731.7734.8%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down—0.0000.0%
2nd down1.7731.7734.8%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs—0.0000.0%
Passing downs1.7731.7735.6%
Darren Morris · WRUsage 1.4% · Avg PPA -1.399 · Total -4.196
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-1.399-4.1961.4%
Pass-1.399-4.1963.4%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down-0.321-0.3211.1%
2nd down0.0610.0611.4%
3rd down—0.0000.0%
Standard downs-0.321-0.3210.6%
Passing downs-1.937-3.8753.5%
Troy Grizzle · TEUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA -0.307 · Total -0.307
SplitAverage PPATotal PPAUsage
Overall-0.307-0.3071.3%
Pass-0.307-0.3073.6%
Rush—0.0000.0%
1st down—0.0000.0%
2nd down—0.0000.0%
3rd down-0.307-0.3076.7%
Standard downs-0.307-0.3071.9%
Passing downs—0.0000.0%
Where Boise State sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 9. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Offense PPA/playOffense PPA/play: 0.303 (94th percentile; 138 teams)94thOffense success rateOffense success rate: 0.474 (81st percentile; 138 teams)81stOffense explosivenessOffense explosiveness: 1.266 (64th percentile; 138 teams)64thOffense pass PPA/playOffense pass PPA/play: 0.441 (92nd percentile; 138 teams)92ndOffense rush PPA/playOffense rush PPA/play: 0.208 (89th percentile; 138 teams)89thDefense PPA/playDefense PPA/play: 0.046 (62nd percentile; 138 teams)62ndDefense success rateDefense success rate: 0.365 (84th percentile; 138 teams)84thDefense explosivenessDefense explosiveness: 1.580 (0th percentile; 138 teams)0thDefense havoc createdDefense havoc created: 0.179 (76th percentile; 138 teams)76th
Values and percentiles
Boise State metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
MetricValuePercentileBetter
Offense PPA/play0.30394th138 teamshigher
Offense success rate0.47481st138 teamshigher
Offense explosiveness1.26664th138 teamshigher
Offense pass PPA/play0.44192nd138 teamshigher
Offense rush PPA/play0.20889th138 teamshigher
Defense PPA/play0.04662nd138 teamslower
Defense success rate0.36584th138 teamslower
Defense explosiveness1.5800th138 teamslower
Defense havoc created0.17976th138 teamshigher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-11-06. Offense: 98% of 236 attempts charted. Average depth of target 7.6 yards (18th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 5.0 per completion. Completion 66.1%, 7.7 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.50.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
SideActualExpectedCPOE (pp)Qualifying / all attempts
Offense65.2%60.9%+4.3201 / 236
Defense allowed59.0%61.5%-2.5227 / 261

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses
Air Force: ADOT 13.0, YAC 3.9Akron: ADOT 7.7, YAC 4.9Alabama: ADOT 9.9, YAC 5.3App State: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.3Arizona: ADOT 8.1, YAC 5.8Arizona State: ADOT 7.9, YAC 6.1Arkansas: ADOT 7.6, YAC 5.4Arkansas State: ADOT 9.0, YAC 5.3Army: ADOT 12.5, YAC 3.7Auburn: ADOT 7.9, YAC 5.1BYU: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.9Ball State: ADOT 7.6, YAC 5.4Baylor: ADOT 10.2, YAC 5.1Boston College: ADOT 8.0, YAC 6.6Bowling Green: ADOT 6.4, YAC 5.6Buffalo: ADOT 10.1, YAC 2.2California: ADOT 6.2, YAC 5.6Central Michigan: ADOT 9.0, YAC 5.5Charlotte: ADOT 7.1, YAC 5.5Cincinnati: ADOT 7.2, YAC 6.7Clemson: ADOT 6.9, YAC 5.8Coastal Carolina: ADOT 10.6, YAC 5.8Colorado: ADOT 8.6, YAC 7.1Colorado State: ADOT 5.6, YAC 8.3Delaware: ADOT 9.4, YAC 6.4Duke: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.6East Carolina: ADOT 8.9, YAC 6.2Eastern Michigan: ADOT 7.2, YAC 5.3Florida: ADOT 7.1, YAC 6.7Florida Atlantic: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.5Florida International: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.3Florida State: ADOT 10.4, YAC 8.1Fresno State: ADOT 8.0, YAC 6.0Georgia: ADOT 8.2, YAC 7.7Georgia Southern: ADOT 6.9, YAC 5.1Georgia State: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.3Georgia Tech: ADOT 7.3, YAC 4.7Hawai'i: ADOT 8.4, YAC 4.2Houston: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.7Illinois: ADOT 9.9, YAC 4.0Indiana: ADOT 11.3, YAC 4.9Iowa: ADOT 7.5, YAC 6.2Iowa State: ADOT 9.2, YAC 5.3Jacksonville State: ADOT 8.3, YAC 5.8James Madison: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.1Kansas: ADOT 12.5, YAC 5.2Kansas State: ADOT 7.8, YAC 5.3Kennesaw State: ADOT 6.7, YAC 4.9Kent State: ADOT 9.4, YAC 5.2Kentucky: ADOT 6.7, YAC 7.0LSU: ADOT 8.0, YAC 6.9Liberty: ADOT 11.3, YAC 6.0Louisiana: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.1Louisiana Tech: ADOT 6.5, YAC 6.2Louisville: ADOT 9.1, YAC 7.1Marshall: ADOT 8.9, YAC 5.3Maryland: ADOT 6.9, YAC 6.0Massachusetts: ADOT 10.4, YAC 4.6Memphis: ADOT 10.3, YAC 5.6Miami: ADOT 7.3, YAC 7.2Miami (OH): ADOT 10.7, YAC 6.2Michigan: ADOT 9.9, YAC 4.8Michigan State: ADOT 7.6, YAC 4.1Middle Tennessee: ADOT 8.0, YAC 5.5Minnesota: ADOT 6.1, YAC 6.1Mississippi State: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.6Missouri: ADOT 10.1, YAC 5.1Missouri State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 5.7NC State: ADOT 8.9, YAC 5.4Navy: ADOT 13.8, YAC 8.0Nebraska: ADOT 8.6, YAC 5.9Nevada: ADOT 8.4, YAC 6.1New Mexico: ADOT 9.9, YAC 6.1New Mexico State: ADOT 9.6, YAC 4.4North Carolina: ADOT 7.4, YAC 6.4North Dakota State: ADOT 10.0, YAC 4.6North Texas: ADOT 9.2, YAC 6.0Northern Illinois: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.5Northwestern: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.5Notre Dame: ADOT 9.6, YAC 4.9Ohio: ADOT 9.6, YAC 6.1Ohio State: ADOT 11.0, YAC 5.1Oklahoma: ADOT 8.3, YAC 5.3Oklahoma State: ADOT 8.5, YAC 6.2Old Dominion: ADOT 10.9, YAC 4.3Ole Miss: ADOT 8.7, YAC 4.1Oregon: ADOT 7.6, YAC 6.5Oregon State: ADOT 8.8, YAC 7.7Penn State: ADOT 9.8, YAC 5.1Pittsburgh: ADOT 9.2, YAC 5.6Purdue: ADOT 8.5, YAC 6.9Rice: ADOT 10.8, YAC 4.9Rutgers: ADOT 11.3, YAC 5.5SMU: ADOT 8.4, YAC 6.3Sacramento State: ADOT 8.2, YAC 4.3Sam Houston: ADOT 7.8, YAC 5.5San Diego State: ADOT 9.7, YAC 5.2San José State: ADOT 10.0, YAC 3.7South Alabama: ADOT 10.7, YAC 5.2South Carolina: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.9South Florida: ADOT 7.7, YAC 6.3Southern Miss: ADOT 8.2, YAC 5.1Stanford: ADOT 8.9, YAC 4.9Syracuse: ADOT 8.9, YAC 5.5TCU: ADOT 9.5, YAC 4.6Temple: ADOT 9.0, YAC 6.9Tennessee: ADOT 6.9, YAC 6.8Texas: ADOT 8.3, YAC 6.3Texas A&M: ADOT 8.8, YAC 5.3Texas State: ADOT 8.6, YAC 6.8Texas Tech: ADOT 9.6, YAC 4.7Toledo: ADOT 9.1, YAC 6.1Troy: ADOT 8.9, YAC 6.5Tulane: ADOT 9.2, YAC 4.9Tulsa: ADOT 8.7, YAC 4.7UAB: ADOT 9.8, YAC 4.4UCF: ADOT 7.0, YAC 5.4UCLA: ADOT 9.1, YAC 5.8UConn: ADOT 11.2, YAC 6.3UL Monroe: ADOT 8.1, YAC 5.8UNLV: ADOT 10.5, YAC 4.3USC: ADOT 8.0, YAC 6.4UTEP: ADOT 8.7, YAC 4.9UTSA: ADOT 7.1, YAC 6.0Utah: ADOT 9.5, YAC 5.8Utah State: ADOT 9.9, YAC 4.5Vanderbilt: ADOT 9.2, YAC 5.1Virginia: ADOT 8.3, YAC 5.3Virginia Tech: ADOT 6.5, YAC 7.0Wake Forest: ADOT 8.7, YAC 6.0Washington: ADOT 7.9, YAC 6.5Washington State: ADOT 7.1, YAC 4.0West Virginia: ADOT 13.8, YAC 8.5Western Kentucky: ADOT 6.9, YAC 5.4Western Michigan: ADOT 8.5, YAC 5.1Wisconsin: ADOT 7.5, YAC 6.9Wyoming: ADOT 8.4, YAC 5.6Boise State: ADOT 7.6, YAC 5.0Average depth of target (yards) →Yards after catch per completion →

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Boise State.

Target mix by zone, Boise State offense
Short left26% · 60Short middle18% · 41Short right48% · 110Deep left2% · 5Deep middle3% · 6Deep right4% · 9

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail
Boise State passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
SideAttemptsChartedADOTYACComp %PPACPOECPOE att
Passing offense23698%7.65.066.1%0.50+4.3 pp201
Passing defense26198%9.27.257.9%0.18-2.5 pp227

Rushing production

SideAttemptsYards / carrySuccessPPALine yards / rushSecond-level yards / rushOpen-field yards / rushStuff ratePower success
Offense3375.348.0%0.243.401.001.5010.9%81.6%
Defense allowed2023.936.6%0.092.700.901.6025.1%76.5%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

SideYards recordedIndividualUnattributedSacksKneelsTeam rushesMultiple carriersDirection located / eligible
Offense332 / 33732215610100318 / 321 · 99.1%
Defense allowed201 / 202201119000179 / 183 · 97.8%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +4.3 pp. 7 of 8 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

-12.31.916.1W1W1 vs Oregon: -12.3 ppW2W2 vs Memphis: -3.4 ppW3W4W4 vs Western Michigan: +15.0 ppW5W5 vs Utah State: +16.1 ppW6W6 vs Fresno State: +4.6 ppW8W8 vs Washington State: +1.2 ppW9W9 vs Texas State: +9.6 pp

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage
WeekOpponentPass attCPOE attComp %*Expected %*CPOEADOTPass PPARush attRush yds/carryRush PPA
W1Oregon292850.0%62.3%-12.3 pp7.30.26372.60.00
W2Memphis282759.3%62.7%-3.4 pp6.50.25477.90.55
W3South Dakota310———6.70.53486.70.28
W4Western Michigan232369.6%54.6%+15.0 pp10.60.61424.00.22
W5Utah State212181.0%64.8%+16.1 pp7.01.00414.50.05
W6Fresno State343467.6%63.0%+4.6 pp6.80.54456.20.33
W8Washington State242360.9%59.7%+1.2 pp7.90.38377.00.45
W9Texas State464568.9%59.3%+9.6 pp8.20.52402.9-0.05

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-11-06T12:25:52.746993+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

20 punts · 43.9 gross yards/punt · 41.0 net yards/punt

7 inside the 20 · 1 touchbacks · 0 blocked

Known gross yards: 20/20 punts. Known net yards: 19/20 punts.

Our punt returns

7 returns · 8.0 yards/return · 1 touchdowns

4 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 7/7 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games
GamePuntsGross yd/puntNet yd/puntKnown net yards
Week 9 · Texas State444.338.54/4
Week 6 · Fresno State137.037.01/1
Week 5 · Utah State243.043.52/2
Week 4 · Western Michigan242.042.02/2
Week 3 · South Dakota245.035.01/2
Team style
Rating history