Week 10 · 2026
Boise State at Colorado State
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Boise State
Window: 2026-11-01 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-11 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T23:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Maddux Madsen QB 3 games | 47.8% 44 / 92 plays | 57.1% 8 / 14 plays |
| Dylan Riley RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 42.1% 24 / 57 plays |
| Sire Gaines RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 15 / 30 plays |
| Max Cutforth QB 1 games | 53.8% 7 / 13 plays | — 0 / 0 plays |
| Juelz Goff RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 14.3% 1 / 7 plays |
| Harry Stewart III RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 1 / 4 plays |
| Rasean Jones WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
| Terrious Favors WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 54 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
AJ Jones · WR
CFBD athlete 5215338
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 7
- receiving · YPR
- 7.0
Akeem Wright · WR
CFBD athlete 5120669
- receiving · LONG
- 40
- receiving · REC
- 21
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 321
- receiving · YPR
- 15.3
Arthur De Boachie · DB
CFBD athlete 5240766
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Austin Terry · TE
CFBD athlete 4832824
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
Ben Ford · WR
CFBD athlete 4714341
- receiving · LONG
- 31
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 137
- receiving · YPR
- 11.4
Boen Phelps · LB
CFBD athlete 5160733
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 24
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 49
- interceptions · AVG
- 13.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 13
Bol Bol · LB
CFBD athlete 5243947
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Caden Kellow · LS
CFBD athlete 5082621
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Cameron Bates · WR
CFBD athlete 5157187
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 14.8
- puntReturns · LONG
- 72
- puntReturns · NO
- 4
- puntReturns · TD
- 1
- puntReturns · YDS
- 59
- receiving · LONG
- 13
- receiving · REC
- 14
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 101
- receiving · YPR
- 7.2
Canaan Moore · PK
CFBD athlete 5305874
- kicking · FGA
- 11
- kicking · FGM
- 10
- kicking · LONG
- 49
- kicking · PCT
- 0.909
- kicking · PTS
- 61
- kicking · XPA
- 31
- kicking · XPM
- 31
Carter Kuchenbuch · TE
CFBD athlete 5218647
- receiving · LONG
- 13
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 13
- receiving · YPR
- 13.0
Cole Miller · DB
CFBD athlete 5160732
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Colton Boomer · PK
CFBD athlete 5085396
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Darren Morris · WR
CFBD athlete 5084429
- receiving · LONG
- 5
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 5
- receiving · YPR
- 5.0
David Latu · DL
CFBD athlete 5160965
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Demetrius Freeney · DB
CFBD athlete 5159949
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Derek Ganter Jr. · DB
CFBD athlete 5152111
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 22
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 32
Deshawn Toilolo · LB
CFBD athlete 5216507
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Deuce Alailefaleula · DL
CFBD athlete 5290678
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
Dylan Riley · RB
CFBD athlete 5146712
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 22.7
- kickReturns · LONG
- 30
- kickReturns · NO
- 3
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 68
- receiving · LONG
- 44
- receiving · REC
- 15
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 130
- receiving · YPR
- 8.7
- rushing · CAR
- 165
- rushing · LONG
- 83
- rushing · TD
- 9
- rushing · YDS
- 1049
- rushing · YPC
- 6.4
Harry Stewart III · RB
CFBD athlete 5126514
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- rushing · CAR
- 18
- rushing · LONG
- 7
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 58
- rushing · YPC
- 3.2
Jaden Mickey · DB
CFBD athlete 4685474
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 26
Jake Ripp · LB
CFBD athlete 4878545
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 24
- interceptions · AVG
- 21.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 21
Jayden Virgin · LB
CFBD athlete 5091748
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 3.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 23
JeRico Washington Jr. · DB
CFBD athlete 5154222
- defensive · PD
- 7
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Jeremyah Lane · WR
CFBD athlete 5382285
- fumbles · FUM
- 3
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 1.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 3
- puntReturns · NO
- 5
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 5
Josiah Alanis · DB
CFBD athlete 5210484
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Juelz Goff · RB
CFBD athlete 5124975
- rushing · CAR
- 20
- rushing · LONG
- 18
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 64
- rushing · YPC
- 3.2
Keawe Browne · TE
CFBD athlete 5382290
- receiving · LONG
- 30
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 62
- receiving · YPR
- 12.4
Kyle Hall · DB
CFBD athlete 5382283
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Logan Brantley · LB
CFBD athlete 4923038
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Lopez Sanusi · DL
CFBD athlete 5186905
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 3.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Madden Soliai · DB
CFBD athlete 5382282
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 27
Maddux Madsen · QB
CFBD athlete 4870513
- passing · ATT
- 222
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 148
- passing · INT
- 1
- passing · PCT
- 0.667
- passing · TD
- 15
- passing · YDS
- 1681
- passing · YPA
- 7.6
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 6
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
- rushing · CAR
- 40
- rushing · LONG
- 23
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 142
- rushing · YPC
- 3.6
Mana Tuioti · LB
CFBD athlete 5239145
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 17
- interceptions · AVG
- 15.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 15
- kickReturns · AVG
- 12.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 12
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 12
Matt Wagner · TE
CFBD athlete 5080888
- receiving · LONG
- 44
- receiving · REC
- 29
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 328
- receiving · YPR
- 11.3
Max Cutforth · QB
CFBD athlete 5160730
- passing · ATT
- 13
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 8
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.615
- passing · TD
- 3
- passing · YDS
- 131
- passing · YPA
- 10.1
Max Stege · LB
CFBD athlete 5102758
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.0
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Michael Madrie · DL
CFBD athlete 5085877
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Mikaio Edward · DL
CFBD athlete 5165052
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Oscar Doyle · P
CFBD athlete 5229955
- punting · In 20
- 7
- punting · LONG
- 58
- punting · NO
- 24
- punting · TB
- 1
- punting · YDS
- 1053
- punting · YPP
- 43.9
Quinton Brown · WR
CFBD athlete 5209425
- receiving · LONG
- 10
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 13
- receiving · YPR
- 6.5
Qumonte Williams Jr. · WR
CFBD athlete 5252200
- kickReturns · AVG
- 0.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 0
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 11
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 36
- receiving · YPR
- 9.0
Rasean Jones · WR
CFBD athlete 5290573
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 63
- receiving · REC
- 37
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 545
- receiving · YPR
- 14.7
- rushing · CAR
- 6
- rushing · LONG
- 19
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 39
- rushing · YPC
- 6.5
Roman Caywood · LB
CFBD athlete 5149074
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Roman Tillmon · DB
CFBD athlete 5155049
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 22
- interceptions · AVG
- 22.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 22
Romeo Carter · WR
CFBD athlete 5302868
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Sherrod Smith · DB
CFBD athlete 5295048
- defensive · PD
- 8
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 25
Sire Gaines · RB
CFBD athlete 5147379
- receiving · LONG
- 38
- receiving · REC
- 10
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 77
- receiving · YPR
- 7.7
- rushing · CAR
- 75
- rushing · LONG
- 25
- rushing · TD
- 4
- rushing · YDS
- 418
- rushing · YPC
- 5.6
Syncere Brackett-Lambey · LB
CFBD athlete 5295051
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Tahj Crutchfield · DB
CFBD athlete 5215383
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Terrious Favors · WR
CFBD athlete 5263666
- receiving · LONG
- 22
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 27
- receiving · YPR
- 13.5
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 19
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 29
- rushing · YPC
- 14.5
Travis Anderson · DB
CFBD athlete 5147509
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 35
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.3
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 1
Zyhaire Lewis · LB
CFBD athlete 5331484
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Colorado State
Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-16 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T23:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Hauss Hejny QB 2 games | 49.2% 31 / 63 plays | 66.7% 10 / 15 plays |
| Ksaan Farrar QB 1 games | 32.5% 13 / 40 plays | 40.0% 2 / 5 plays |
| Durell Robinson RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 51.2% 21 / 41 plays |
| Jayden Brown RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 54.5% 6 / 11 plays |
| Cedric Ross RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 1 / 4 plays |
| Malichi Greaves RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 66.7% 2 / 3 plays |
| Ryan McConnell TE 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
| Terrence Smith Jr. WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 64 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Alton Tarber · DL
CFBD athlete 4685589
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Antarron Turner · LB
CFBD athlete 5089561
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 35
Atticus Tillman · S
CFBD athlete 5282608
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 8
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 8
- rushing · YPC
- 8.0
Brandon Kelly · DL
CFBD athlete 5077224
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 5
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 18
C.J. Blocker · CB
CFBD athlete 5078214
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 18
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 27
- interceptions · AVG
- 8.7
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 26
Caleb Otlewski · LB
CFBD athlete 5078280
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Caleb Presley · CB
CFBD athlete 4870905
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Cavan Craig · P
CFBD athlete 5225622
- punting · In 20
- 1
- punting · LONG
- 42
- punting · NO
- 3
- punting · TB
- 0
- punting · YDS
- 111
- punting · YPP
- 37.0
Cedric Ross · RB
CFBD athlete 5290862
- kickReturns · AVG
- 20.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 20
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 20
- receiving · LONG
- 68
- receiving · REC
- 13
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 221
- receiving · YPR
- 17.0
- rushing · CAR
- 9
- rushing · LONG
- 7
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 33
- rushing · YPC
- 3.7
Cleto Chol · DL
CFBD athlete 5077340
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
D'Angelo Hagans Jr. · CB
CFBD athlete 5250657
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 29
- interceptions · AVG
- 15.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 15
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 6
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
D'Mon Brinson · S
CFBD athlete 4837204
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 25
- interceptions · AVG
- 49.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 49
- kickReturns · AVG
- 25.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 25
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 25
Darius Curry · QB
CFBD athlete 5122401
- passing · ATT
- 8
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 6
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.750
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 70
- passing · YPA
- 8.8
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 6
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 1.3
Daven Amos · WR
CFBD athlete 5446708
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 6
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
Desman Manuel · DL
CFBD athlete 5302887
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Dominic Toy · TE
CFBD athlete 5146769
- receiving · LONG
- 38
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 63
- receiving · YPR
- 12.6
Durell Robinson · RB
CFBD athlete 4894661
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 28
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 70
- receiving · YPR
- 7.8
- rushing · CAR
- 104
- rushing · LONG
- 30
- rushing · TD
- 9
- rushing · YDS
- 449
- rushing · YPC
- 4.3
Dylan Phelps · S
CFBD athlete 5122042
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Elijah Brown · CB
CFBD athlete 5295193
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 26
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 7
- receiving · YPR
- 7.0
Elijah Mc-Cantos · S
CFBD athlete 4809893
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Gabe Jones · DL
CFBD athlete 5122160
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Hauss Hejny · QB
CFBD athlete 5079443
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 2
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 134
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 90
- passing · INT
- 2
- passing · PCT
- 0.672
- passing · TD
- 14
- passing · YDS
- 1138
- passing · YPA
- 8.5
- receiving · LONG
- 28
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 28
- receiving · YPR
- 28.0
- rushing · CAR
- 30
- rushing · LONG
- 75
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 208
- rushing · YPC
- 6.9
Isaiah Watson · WR
CFBD athlete 5327618
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
Jace Bellah · S
CFBD athlete 5082256
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Jack Moran · DL
CFBD athlete 5143024
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 26
Jackson Harper · WR
CFBD athlete 5077803
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- puntReturns · AVG
- 12.9
- puntReturns · LONG
- 30
- puntReturns · NO
- 7
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 90
- receiving · LONG
- 49
- receiving · REC
- 26
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 344
- receiving · YPR
- 13.2
Jaden Hernandez · LB
CFBD athlete 5264723
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jaivyn Moore · WR
CFBD athlete 5446698
- receiving · LONG
- 26
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 56
- receiving · YPR
- 9.3
Jaseim Mitchell · LB
CFBD athlete 5082258
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 17
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 32
Javonte Vereen · TE
CFBD athlete 4899418
- receiving · LONG
- 32
- receiving · REC
- 16
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 111
- receiving · YPR
- 6.9
Jayden Brown · RB
CFBD athlete 5095078
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 46.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 94
- kickReturns · NO
- 5
- kickReturns · TD
- 1
- kickReturns · YDS
- 230
- receiving · LONG
- 20
- receiving · REC
- 16
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 88
- receiving · YPR
- 5.5
- rushing · CAR
- 52
- rushing · LONG
- 80
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 454
- rushing · YPC
- 8.7
Jayden Fox · RB
CFBD athlete 5289653
- kickReturns · AVG
- 25.2
- kickReturns · LONG
- 46
- kickReturns · NO
- 5
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 126
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 5
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
Jaylen King · LB
CFBD athlete 5327239
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 10
- interceptions · AVG
- 5.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 5
Jordan Lessard · CB
CFBD athlete 5446696
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 23
Kali Nguma · PK
CFBD athlete 5150789
- kicking · FGA
- 5
- kicking · FGM
- 4
- kicking · LONG
- 51
- kicking · PCT
- 0.800
- kicking · PTS
- 44
- kicking · XPA
- 32
- kicking · XPM
- 32
Keegan Shank · DL
CFBD athlete 5148996
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Kenyon Agurs · LB
CFBD athlete 5122052
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 22
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Khamani Potts · LB
CFBD athlete 5446697
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Ksaan Farrar · QB
CFBD athlete 5212610
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 143
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 89
- passing · INT
- 2
- passing · PCT
- 0.622
- passing · TD
- 5
- passing · YDS
- 943
- passing · YPA
- 6.6
- rushing · CAR
- 14
- rushing · LONG
- 11
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 43
- rushing · YPC
- 3.1
Lavon Brown · WR
CFBD athlete 4920896
- receiving · LONG
- 19
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 36
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Malichi Greaves · RB
CFBD athlete 5296864
- receiving · LONG
- 5
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 5
- receiving · YPR
- 5.0
- rushing · CAR
- 6
- rushing · LONG
- 9
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 28
- rushing · YPC
- 4.7
Marc Pretto · LB
CFBD athlete 5086188
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 22
Mukendi Wa-Kalonji · DL
CFBD athlete 4709974
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Nader Chirchi · TE
CFBD athlete 5121898
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- receiving · LONG
- 21
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 46
- receiving · YPR
- 7.7
Nathan Sutcliffe · P
CFBD athlete 5258482
- punting · In 20
- 5
- punting · LONG
- 56
- punting · NO
- 26
- punting · TB
- 3
- punting · YDS
- 1122
- punting · YPP
- 43.2
Nykobi Brown · LB
CFBD athlete 5222533
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Oliver Lundberg-Coleman · RB
CFBD athlete 5193222
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- receiving · LONG
- 1
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 0
- receiving · YPR
- 0.0
- rushing · CAR
- 17
- rushing · LONG
- 14
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 57
- rushing · YPC
- 3.4
Oumar Diomande · LB
CFBD athlete 5121899
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 24
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 76
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 2.5
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 5
Pearce Spurlin III · TE
CFBD athlete 4871061
- receiving · LONG
- 29
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 29
- receiving · YPR
- 29.0
Peyton Garrett · DL
CFBD athlete 5230017
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Reginald Vick Jr · WR
CFBD athlete 5232343
- receiving · LONG
- 57
- receiving · REC
- 29
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 425
- receiving · YPR
- 14.7
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 18
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 18
- rushing · YPC
- 18.0
Robby Harrison · DL
CFBD athlete 4894437
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 32
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Ryan McConnell · TE
CFBD athlete 5151385
- receiving · LONG
- 3
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 3
- receiving · YPR
- 3.0
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 6
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 6
- rushing · YPC
- 6.0
Stephon Wright · DL
CFBD athlete 4430782
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 8
TaVeon Robinson · DL
CFBD athlete 5446709
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Terrence Smith Jr. · WR
CFBD athlete 5193168
- passing · ATT
- 2
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 1
- passing · PCT
- 0.500
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 28
- passing · YPA
- 14.0
- receiving · LONG
- 74
- receiving · REC
- 28
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 374
- receiving · YPR
- 13.4
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 17
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 20
- rushing · YPC
- 10.0
Thomas Cook Jr. · CB
CFBD athlete 5302883
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Tommy Maher · WR
CFBD athlete 5219136
- receiving · LONG
- 57
- receiving · REC
- 19
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 257
- receiving · YPR
- 13.5
TreShawn Moore · S
CFBD athlete 5224718
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 24
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 61
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 38.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 38
Trey Vincent · S
CFBD athlete 5151384
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Ty Staples · CB
CFBD athlete 5446701
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Tyrone Fitten · DL
CFBD athlete 5291021
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Walker Himebauch · LS
CFBD athlete 5092244
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Xavier Wimbush · CB
CFBD athlete 5327240
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
Boise State -17.5
DraftKings snapshot: Colorado State +17.5
Boise State by 16.30
1.20 points toward Colorado State versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Colorado State.
- Net EPA rating difference: -20.30
- Fitted offset: +5.20
- Fitted home field: -1.20
Reconciles to -16.30 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs 0ce0cfb312365e2999b7f92965c2b78c8093753b826c82608a0bc2b68d11b9a2 · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 758ae16563279eb3decda35f6a8064b0fd8a7eceed12ce712c85e2c021bc4901 · through week 9.
What changed?
7 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | +17.5 | +17.5 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | +16.3 | +16.3 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +1.2 | +1.2 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor Colorado State; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
- Odds source SHA-256
- 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
- Odds source SHA-256
- d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 0ce0cfb312365e2999b7f92965c2b78c8093753b826c82608a0bc2b68d11b9a2. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +1.2 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
Colorado State win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 11%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Colorado State +17.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 17%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Colorado State.
- home adjusted success allowed: -13.36 (path difference 1.68)
- home elo: -12.51 (path difference 4.49)
- away adjusted success: -9.94 (path difference 6.90)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -6.82 (path difference 0.01)
- away adjusted epa: -6.12 (path difference 5.64)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: +5.60 (path difference 5.06)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +4.72 (path difference 2.40)
- home adjusted epa allowed: +4.49 (path difference 6.15)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.04 (path difference 2.65)
- home adjusted success: +3.57 (path difference 1.71)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +3.18 (path difference 1.46)
- away elo: -2.89 (path difference 2.94)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +2.86 (path difference 1.48)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +2.73 (path difference 2.97)
- home adjusted second level yards: +2.72 (path difference 1.02)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: -2.48 (path difference 1.48)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: +2.47 (path difference 2.31)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +2.23 (path difference 0.65)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +2.00 (path difference 0.89)
- away adjusted success allowed: -1.86 (path difference 0.99)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -1.81 (path difference 0.36)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.69 (path difference 0.66)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.46 (path difference 1.22)
- home talent: +1.44 (path difference 0.19)
- home conference: +1.43 (path difference 2.40)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: -1.42 (path difference 0.58)
- away adjusted second level yards: +1.39 (path difference 0.21)
- away conference: +1.35 (path difference 1.64)
- away adjusted standard down success: +1.32 (path difference 0.57)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.32 (path difference 0.01)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.19 (path difference 0.62)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.14 (path difference 0.09)
- away adjusted line yards: -1.12 (path difference 1.24)
- week: -1.12 (path difference 0.49)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.05 (path difference 0.39)
- away adjusted passing down success: +1.02 (path difference 1.17)
- home adjusted line yards: -1.01 (path difference 0.86)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.81 (path difference 0.92)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.78 (path difference 0.30)
- home adjusted open field yards: -0.73 (path difference 0.30)
- away adjusted passing epa: -0.72 (path difference 1.42)
- away talent: -0.58 (path difference 0.22)
- home adjusted standard down success: -0.26 (path difference 0.47)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.25 (path difference 0.37)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.19 (path difference 0.75)
- home adjusted rushing epa: +0.10 (path difference 0.06)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.09 (path difference 0.91)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.09 (path difference 0.44)
- home adjusted epa: +0.08 (path difference 0.08)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.07 (path difference 0.35)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.05 (path difference 0.01)
- home adjusted passing down success: -0.03 (path difference 0.02)
- home adjusted passing epa: +0.03 (path difference 0.01)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.03 (path difference 0.01)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.01 (path difference 0.00)
Reconciles to 17.19 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 6b37b19bba963d400b6964bd014bddc180e729a6b9c0527f4c2369b1bbe33d66 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast f3e234a69d9dbd875d6a4b73be8dbf9c449ba28d573ee47624a9fa05c2300a48 · through week 9.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.
Boise State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 116 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan RileyCFBD athlete 5146712 Week 6 vs Fresno State: 19 attempts · 7.9 YPC · 47.4% success · 0.351 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Washington State: 13 attempts · 9.8 YPC · 30.8% success · 0.470 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Texas State: 25 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 44.0% success · 0.087 raw PPA. | 57 | 6.4 | 0 | 49.1% | 164 / 6.3 |
Sire GainesCFBD athlete 5147379 Week 6 vs Fresno State: 20 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 55.0% success · 0.381 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Washington State: 10 attempts · 6.4 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.436 raw PPA. | 30 | 6.1 | 0 | 25.9% | 75 / 5.6 |
Maddux MadsenCFBD athlete 4870513 Week 6 vs Fresno State: 4 attempts · 0.8 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.075 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Washington State: 4 attempts · 8.5 YPC · 75.0% success · 1.081 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Texas State: 7 attempts · -0.3 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.241 raw PPA. | 15 | 2.3 | 1 | 12.9% | 37 / 3.4 |
Juelz GoffCFBD athlete 5124975 Week 8 vs Washington State: 4 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.124 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Texas State: 3 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.215 raw PPA. | 7 | 3.3 | 0 | 6.0% | 20 / 3.2 |
Harry Stewart IIICFBD athlete 5126514 Week 8 vs Washington State: 2 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.193 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Texas State: 2 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -2.880 raw PPA. | 4 | 4.3 | 0 | 3.4% | 18 / 3.2 |
Colorado State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 87 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Durell RobinsonCFBD athlete 4894661 Week 7 vs Texas State: 7 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.361 raw PPA. Week 8 vs San Diego State: 19 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 57.9% success · 0.330 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Utah State: 16 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 43.8% success · 0.415 raw PPA. | 42 | 4.4 | 0 | 48.3% | 107 / 4.6 |
Hauss HejnyCFBD athlete 5079443 Week 8 vs San Diego State: 11 attempts · 7.7 YPC · 72.7% success · 0.440 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Utah State: 6 attempts · -0.8 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.246 raw PPA. | 17 | 4.7 | 2 | 19.5% | 29 / 7.0 |
Jayden BrownCFBD athlete 5095078 Week 7 vs Texas State: 6 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.696 raw PPA. Week 8 vs San Diego State: 5 attempts · 4.6 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.151 raw PPA. | 11 | 4.1 | 0 | 12.6% | 52 / 8.7 |
Ksaan FarrarCFBD athlete 5212610 Week 7 vs Texas State: 6 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.849 raw PPA. | 6 | 4.3 | 1 | 6.9% | 14 / 3.1 |
Cedric RossCFBD athlete 5290862 Week 7 vs Texas State: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.152 raw PPA. Week 8 vs San Diego State: 3 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.058 raw PPA. | 4 | 3.8 | 0 | 4.6% | 9 / 3.7 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | Colorado StateOffense | Boise StateDefense | Boise StateOffense | Colorado StateDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.23 80th | +0.05 62nd | +0.30 94th | +0.31 1st |
| Success rate | 45.6% 70th | 36.5% 84th | 47.4% 81st | 52.4% 0th |
| Explosiveness | 1.40 99th | 1.58 0th | 1.27 64th | 1.26 36th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.16 74th | +0.01 58th | +0.21 89th | +0.25 1st |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.40 87th | +0.11 72nd | +0.53 96th | +0.49 1st |
| Havoc allowed / created | 14.9% 48th | 17.9% 76th | 9.5% 98th | 12.6% 13th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:38 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:38 AM CST
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.
- Kali Nguma · Colorado State · PAAR 3.13 · 5 attempts
- Canaan Moore · Boise State · PAAR 5.01 · 11 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Colorado State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: +19.5 · Snapshot spread: +17.5
First locally observed: +17.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 68.5 · Snapshot total: 68.5
Total · First locally observed: 68.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +625 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +650 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -950 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -1000 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: +18.5 · Snapshot spread: +17.5
First locally observed: +18.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 68.5 · Snapshot total: 69
Total · First locally observed: 68.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +650 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +650 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -1000 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -1000 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Colorado State
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 9 rated weeks · Pac-12
Boise State
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.2 · 9 rated weeks · Pac-12
Travel
Boise State travels 606 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change · up 2,314 ft in elevation.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Boise State leads 13–1 in 14 meetings since 2011.
- 2025Colorado State at Boise State21–49 · Boise State
- 2023Boise State at Colorado State30–31 · Colorado State
- 2022Colorado State at Boise State10–49 · Boise State
- 2021Boise State at Colorado State28–19 · Boise State
- 2020Colorado State at Boise State21–52 · Boise State
- 2019Boise State at Colorado State31–24 · Boise State
CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.