Week 9 · 2026
Florida Atlantic at North Texas
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Retrospective prior-game summary; these observations were not verified available before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Florida Atlantic
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-29T23:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Caden Veltkamp QB 3 games | 56.2% 59 / 105 plays | 40.0% 4 / 10 plays |
| Leonard Farrow RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 56.0% 14 / 25 plays |
| Ethan Ervin RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 45.0% 9 / 20 plays |
| Brady Tillman RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 30.0% 3 / 10 plays |
| Drew Devillier QB 2 games | 50.0% 4 / 8 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Kaden Shields-Dutton RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 42.9% 3 / 7 plays |
| Jordan Magwood QB 2 games | 33.3% 1 / 3 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
| Almari Brown RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 60.0% 3 / 5 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
North Texas
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported) · 2026-10-02 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-29T23:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Tayven Jackson QB 3 games | 56.8% 54 / 95 plays | 28.6% 2 / 7 plays |
| Jahiem White RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 32 / 64 plays |
| Brendon Haygood RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 45.5% 5 / 11 plays |
| Chaston Ditta QB 1 games | 33.3% 3 / 9 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Chris Jimerson Jr. QB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 60.0% 3 / 5 plays |
| Colin Page RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 3 plays |
| Josiah Martin WR 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 33.3% 1 / 3 plays |
| Adarion Nettles RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 2 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
North Texas -15.5
EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.
CFBD median · DraftKings quote matches
North Texas by 18.81
3.31 points toward North Texas versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward North Texas.
- Net EPA rating difference: +14.88
- Fitted offset: +5.87
- Fitted home field: -1.93
Reconciles to 18.81 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs a6867e142da8b8196f3c60cd4b42728c960320e6143672db1be2ff1f9d7895d8 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 867ab7fba3f169c92fa3ce1459050830c70cf0e93f170dd227060f0d1403ecbd · through week 8.
What changed?
12 saved cards for this gameMarket spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved -1.25 points.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -14.25 | -15.5 | -1.25 |
| Model spread | -18.81 | -18.81 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +4.56 | +3.31 | -1.25 |
Negative spreads favor North Texas; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
- Odds source SHA-256
- c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
- Odds source SHA-256
- 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
Model context & pick method
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: a6867e142da8b8196f3c60cd4b42728c960320e6143672db1be2ff1f9d7895d8. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.
Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
Margins are not projected scores.
Pick logic
North Texas -15.5
Model gap +3.3 points
A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor North Texas.
Win probabilities · separate sources
North Texas win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 86%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: North Texas -15.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 85%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward North Texas.
- away elo: +12.66 (path difference 15.83)
- away adjusted success: -6.87 (path difference 9.03)
- home elo: +6.84 (path difference 7.38)
- home adjusted success: +6.70 (path difference 7.23)
- home adjusted passing epa: +5.07 (path difference 7.12)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +3.98 (path difference 7.03)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +3.78 (path difference 1.10)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: -3.64 (path difference 4.40)
- away adjusted success allowed: +3.22 (path difference 4.77)
- away adjusted epa allowed: +2.80 (path difference 4.17)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +2.72 (path difference 2.29)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +2.52 (path difference 2.54)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +2.33 (path difference 0.54)
- away adjusted second level yards: +1.69 (path difference 1.12)
- home adjusted second level yards: +1.06 (path difference 0.85)
- home talent: +1.04 (path difference 0.32)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.01 (path difference 0.53)
- home adjusted standard down success: +1.01 (path difference 1.95)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -0.94 (path difference 1.29)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.92 (path difference 1.12)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.89 (path difference 0.39)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.73 (path difference 0.99)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.73 (path difference 0.28)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.69 (path difference 0.35)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.65 (path difference 0.13)
- away adjusted standard down success: +0.63 (path difference 2.66)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.58 (path difference 0.53)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.56 (path difference 0.15)
- home adjusted success allowed: -0.55 (path difference 0.07)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.54 (path difference 0.31)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.54 (path difference 0.17)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.51 (path difference 1.21)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +0.46 (path difference 0.04)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.41 (path difference 0.39)
- away adjusted open field yards: -0.39 (path difference 1.28)
- away adjusted epa: -0.38 (path difference 0.54)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -0.36 (path difference 0.37)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.34 (path difference 0.56)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.33 (path difference 0.13)
- away adjusted line yards: +0.33 (path difference 0.75)
- home adjusted epa: -0.29 (path difference 0.99)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.27 (path difference 1.06)
- home adjusted line yards: -0.25 (path difference 0.21)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.24 (path difference 0.89)
- away conference: +0.23 (path difference 0.31)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.21 (path difference 0.41)
- away talent: -0.21 (path difference 0.06)
- away adjusted passing down success: +0.21 (path difference 0.25)
- home adjusted passing down success: +0.20 (path difference 0.84)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.17 (path difference 0.95)
- home adjusted open field yards: +0.10 (path difference 0.79)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.09 (path difference 0.08)
- home conference: -0.09 (path difference 0.49)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +0.04 (path difference 0.02)
- week: +0.02 (path difference 0.90)
Reconciles to 84.65 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs fbf2463a9ed9b3e47d732cfaae25347c61606c59cba9b63856e7847ff53118ee · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 37bc5924fb5c6e75487fe85805990defd2af242fdaa7934076fe38905c2d39ef · through week 8.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Recent rushing game context unavailable before this matchup.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | North TexasOffense | Florida AtlanticDefense | Florida AtlanticOffense | North TexasDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.32 94th | +0.26 1st | +0.20 70th | +0.07 50th |
| Success rate | 49.4% 91st | 43.3% 23rd | 46.2% 72nd | 41.9% 40th |
| Explosiveness | 1.34 89th | 1.48 1st | 1.21 42nd | 1.25 37th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.29 96th | +0.30 0th | +0.09 50th | +0.01 55th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.40 80th | +0.18 50th | +0.47 93rd | +0.22 40th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 10.6% 94th | 13.3% 16th | 14.9% 45th | 16.3% 56th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Oct 29, 2026, 6:16:33 AM CDT · assembled Oct 29, 2026, 6:16:33 AM CDT
Adjusted preview unavailable: kickoff reached. Saved evidence is retained.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 29, 2026, 6:16:34 AM CDT.
- Collin Rogers · Florida Atlantic · PAAR 0.65 · 11 attempts
- Dominic De Freitas · North Texas · PAAR 0.62 · 12 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Kickoff reached; no retrospective pregame reconstruction
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
North Texas spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: -12.5 · Snapshot spread: -15.5
First locally observed: -12.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 69.5 · Snapshot total: 78.5
Total · First locally observed: 69.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -600 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -470 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +440 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +360 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: -13 · Snapshot spread: -15.5
First locally observed: -13 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 72.5 · Snapshot total: 78
Total · First locally observed: 76 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -525 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -525 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +375 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +375 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
North Texas
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 8 rated weeks · American Athletic
Florida Atlantic
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 8 rated weeks · American Athletic
Travel
Florida Atlantic travels 1,124 miles (longer than 75% of road trips, 2017–2025) · 1 time zone crossed · up 640 ft in elevation.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Florida Atlantic leads 8–7 in 15 meetings since 2004.
- 2024North Texas at Florida Atlantic41–37 · North Texas
- 2022Florida Atlantic at North Texas28–45 · North Texas
- 2018Florida Atlantic at North Texas38–41 · North Texas
- 2017North Texas at Florida Atlantic17–41 · Florida Atlantic
- 2017North Texas at Florida Atlantic31–69 · Florida Atlantic
- 2014Florida Atlantic at North Texas10–31 · North Texas
CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.