Week 10 · 2026
UTSA at Florida Atlantic
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Retrospective prior-game summary; these observations were not verified available before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
UTSA
Window: 2026-10-25 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-08 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-06T00:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Owen McCown QB 3 games | 46.9% 45 / 96 plays | 71.4% 10 / 14 plays |
| Will Henderson III RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 52.3% 23 / 44 plays |
| A'Marion Peterson RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 62.1% 18 / 29 plays |
| Brandon High RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 36.4% 8 / 22 plays |
| Mekhi Anderson WR 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
| David Amador WR 1 games | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays | — 0 / 0 plays |
| Mark Wiepert QB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
Florida Atlantic
Window: 2026-10-29 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-06T00:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Caden Veltkamp QB 3 games | 50.7% 74 / 146 plays | 42.9% 6 / 14 plays |
| Leonard Farrow RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 40.5% 15 / 37 plays |
| Ethan Ervin RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 35.0% 7 / 20 plays |
| Kaden Shields-Dutton RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 5 / 10 plays |
| Easton Messer WR 2 games | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays | 100.0% 3 / 3 plays |
| Brady Tillman RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 1 / 4 plays |
| Dom Henry WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Jordan Magwood QB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
UTSA -7
DraftKings snapshot: Florida Atlantic +7
UTSA by 4.08
2.92 points toward Florida Atlantic versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Florida Atlantic.
- Net EPA rating difference: -8.08
- Fitted offset: +5.20
- Fitted home field: -1.20
Reconciles to -4.08 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs b85132f9849ad82444bec3f6a1feb3b284673dd1296fe313f3858b0f51209e2a · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 8e873ea4dfd5505cd32fa2783d50245bc4b982f39d79c843f123c0b9ae85e443 · through week 9.
What changed?
7 saved cards for this gameMarket spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved +0.5 points.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | +6.5 | +7.0 | +0.5 |
| Model spread | +4.08 | +4.08 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +2.42 | +2.92 | +0.5 |
Negative spreads favor Florida Atlantic; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
- Odds source SHA-256
- 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
- Odds source SHA-256
- d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: b85132f9849ad82444bec3f6a1feb3b284673dd1296fe313f3858b0f51209e2a. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +2.9 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
Florida Atlantic win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 32%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Florida Atlantic +7
- Stacked ensemble
- 26%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Florida Atlantic.
- home elo: -13.70 (path difference 3.75)
- away adjusted success: -9.30 (path difference 0.97)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +7.98 (path difference 2.13)
- home adjusted second level yards: +7.55 (path difference 3.05)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -6.22 (path difference 0.56)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +5.60 (path difference 1.26)
- home adjusted success: +3.95 (path difference 2.87)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -3.93 (path difference 2.53)
- home adjusted epa allowed: +3.35 (path difference 2.62)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: -3.29 (path difference 2.64)
- away adjusted standard down success: +2.85 (path difference 1.73)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.82 (path difference 0.80)
- home adjusted line yards: -2.47 (path difference 1.63)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -2.32 (path difference 0.06)
- home adjusted epa: +2.26 (path difference 2.11)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: -2.12 (path difference 1.93)
- home adjusted success allowed: -1.77 (path difference 2.06)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.75 (path difference 0.03)
- home adjusted passing epa: +1.63 (path difference 0.57)
- away adjusted epa: -1.51 (path difference 0.32)
- home adjusted standard down success: +1.31 (path difference 0.81)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +1.30 (path difference 1.27)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.27 (path difference 0.40)
- away adjusted line yards: -1.25 (path difference 1.97)
- away talent: -1.24 (path difference 0.87)
- home talent: +1.23 (path difference 0.13)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.14 (path difference 0.71)
- week: -1.10 (path difference 0.44)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +1.09 (path difference 0.26)
- home adjusted open field yards: -1.09 (path difference 3.32)
- away adjusted passing down success: -1.06 (path difference 3.09)
- away adjusted passing epa: +1.01 (path difference 0.53)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.01 (path difference 0.38)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.82 (path difference 0.56)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.79 (path difference 0.64)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -0.78 (path difference 0.92)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.73 (path difference 0.28)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +0.71 (path difference 0.82)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.58 (path difference 0.87)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.58 (path difference 0.54)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.55 (path difference 0.36)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.53 (path difference 1.30)
- away adjusted success allowed: -0.52 (path difference 0.83)
- home adjusted passing down success: -0.47 (path difference 0.38)
- away conference: -0.42 (path difference 0.99)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.27 (path difference 0.22)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.26 (path difference 0.10)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.20 (path difference 0.72)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.18 (path difference 0.35)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: +0.17 (path difference 2.35)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.08 (path difference 0.01)
- home conference: +0.07 (path difference 0.82)
- away elo: +0.03 (path difference 0.35)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.03 (path difference 0.27)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.01 (path difference 0.00)
Reconciles to 25.87 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 927244637dca6037cbfa4ddb1721bb6477b4c4b100061023d6bc6c4a98413206 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast d3658d989c1177cc99f9eb036db52508d3a1fd1e6b4535e2badf8df1365e73af · through week 9.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Recent rushing game context unavailable before this matchup.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | Florida AtlanticOffense | UTSADefense | UTSAOffense | Florida AtlanticDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.19 70th | +0.10 41st | +0.23 79th | +0.27 1st |
| Success rate | 45.6% 69th | 40.6% 52nd | 47.1% 79th | 44.1% 20th |
| Explosiveness | 1.26 56th | 1.25 42nd | 1.18 27th | 1.47 1st |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.09 54th | +0.06 39th | +0.18 82nd | +0.28 0th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.44 91st | +0.17 56th | +0.33 69th | +0.27 27th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 14.8% 50th | 14.0% 24th | 12.3% 88th | 12.4% 11th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Nov 5, 2026, 6:16:34 AM CST · assembled Nov 5, 2026, 6:16:34 AM CST
Adjusted preview unavailable: kickoff reached. Saved evidence is retained.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 5, 2026, 6:16:36 AM CST.
- Collin Rogers · Florida Atlantic · PAAR 2.09 · 13 attempts
- Michael Petro · UTSA · PAAR 0.79 · 14 attempts
- Braydon Doane · UTSA · PAAR 1.03 · 1 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Kickoff reached; no retrospective pregame reconstruction
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Florida Atlantic spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: +6.5 · Snapshot spread: +7
First locally observed: +6.5 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 70.5 · Snapshot total: 72.5
Total · First locally observed: 71.5 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +225 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +200 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -278 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -245 · captured Nov 1, 2026, 03:00:02 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: eeaa60c32ae950903c6eb357c07f8eda76f9de01d095058b85ce148130691012
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: +7 · Snapshot spread: +7
First locally observed: +7 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 72 · Snapshot total: 72
Total · First locally observed: 72 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +215 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +215 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -260 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -260 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Florida Atlantic
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 9 rated weeks · American Athletic
UTSA
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.0 · 8 rated weeks · American Athletic
Travel
UTSA travels 1,140 miles (longer than 75% of road trips, 2017–2025) · 1 time zone crossed · down 649 ft in elevation.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Florida Atlantic leads 3–2 in 5 meetings since 2014.
- 2024Florida Atlantic at UTSA24–38 · UTSA
- 2023UTSA at Florida Atlantic36–10 · UTSA
- 2020UTSA at Florida Atlantic3–24 · Florida Atlantic
- 2019Florida Atlantic at UTSA40–26 · Florida Atlantic
- 2014UTSA at Florida Atlantic37–41 · Florida Atlantic
CFBD matchup data Last 5 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.