Week 9 · 2026
Troy at James Madison
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Retrospective prior-game summary; these observations were not verified available before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Troy
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-07 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-29T23:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Will Crowder QB 3 games | 38.5% 20 / 52 plays | 69.6% 16 / 23 plays |
| Jordan Lovett RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 48.7% 19 / 39 plays |
| Gavin Griffin RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 45.5% 15 / 33 plays |
| Tucker Kilcrease QB 2 games | 17.6% 3 / 17 plays | 22.2% 2 / 9 plays |
| Jaheim Merriweather RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 30.4% 7 / 23 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
James Madison
Window: 2026-10-22 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-29T23:30:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Camden Coleman QB 3 games | 42.0% 37 / 88 plays | 50.0% 4 / 8 plays |
| George Pettaway RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 48.9% 23 / 47 plays |
| JC Evans QB 3 games | 47.1% 8 / 17 plays | 50.0% 9 / 18 plays |
| Seth Cromwell RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 20.0% 5 / 25 plays |
| Nick Herman RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 37.5% 3 / 8 plays |
| Michael Scott WR 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
James Madison -17.5
DraftKings snapshot: James Madison -17.5
James Madison by 17.54
0.04 points toward James Madison versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward James Madison.
- Net EPA rating difference: +13.60
- Fitted offset: +5.87
- Fitted home field: -1.93
Reconciles to 17.54 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs b484e823ac1784e19ee021d6ef67094e27e0f1ec2a72a164b68f6ef4449dc5fd · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 134aae120445b86d4820af2cf259876462f6519a383edb558751cfb5dfca01ea · through week 8.
What changed?
12 saved cards for this gameMarket spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved +2.0 points.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -19.5 | -17.5 | +2.0 |
| Model spread | -17.54 | -17.54 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | -1.96 | +0.04 | +2.0 |
Negative spreads favor James Madison; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
- Odds source SHA-256
- c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
- Odds source SHA-256
- 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: b484e823ac1784e19ee021d6ef67094e27e0f1ec2a72a164b68f6ef4449dc5fd. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.
Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +0.0 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
James Madison win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 89%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: James Madison -17.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 88%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward James Madison.
- home elo: +11.06 (path difference 7.94)
- away elo: +10.76 (path difference 15.76)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +5.80 (path difference 9.37)
- home adjusted passing epa: +4.79 (path difference 7.83)
- away adjusted epa: +3.34 (path difference 5.61)
- away adjusted success allowed: +3.32 (path difference 3.63)
- away adjusted passing down success: -2.86 (path difference 1.65)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +2.62 (path difference 3.11)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +2.29 (path difference 0.03)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -2.17 (path difference 2.09)
- home adjusted second level yards: +2.16 (path difference 1.05)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +1.91 (path difference 1.73)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.72 (path difference 1.47)
- home adjusted success: +1.56 (path difference 1.38)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -1.50 (path difference 2.35)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +1.39 (path difference 1.56)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.97 (path difference 0.76)
- home adjusted success allowed: +0.91 (path difference 1.01)
- home adjusted standard down success: +0.84 (path difference 0.47)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.81 (path difference 0.61)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.76 (path difference 0.27)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.71 (path difference 0.20)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.71 (path difference 1.26)
- home talent: +0.70 (path difference 0.19)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.68 (path difference 0.36)
- away adjusted success: -0.67 (path difference 0.80)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.66 (path difference 0.64)
- away conference: +0.64 (path difference 1.18)
- home adjusted epa: +0.55 (path difference 0.13)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.53 (path difference 0.29)
- away adjusted line yards: -0.43 (path difference 0.91)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.39 (path difference 1.66)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +0.34 (path difference 0.36)
- home conference: +0.34 (path difference 0.20)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +0.34 (path difference 0.23)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.33 (path difference 0.85)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.33 (path difference 1.59)
- home adjusted line yards: +0.31 (path difference 0.42)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.27 (path difference 0.07)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.25 (path difference 0.27)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.23 (path difference 0.19)
- away adjusted second level yards: -0.23 (path difference 0.03)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.22 (path difference 0.25)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.20 (path difference 0.26)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.17 (path difference 0.63)
- away talent: -0.17 (path difference 0.04)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -0.16 (path difference 0.98)
- away adjusted standard down success: -0.16 (path difference 1.75)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.13 (path difference 0.18)
- away adjusted epa allowed: +0.12 (path difference 0.20)
- week: +0.10 (path difference 0.77)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.07 (path difference 0.05)
- home adjusted passing down success: +0.05 (path difference 0.05)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.03 (path difference 0.18)
- home adjusted open field yards: +0.02 (path difference 0.01)
Reconciles to 88.21 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 336316a8e34d8ab374e5e902250419a2315027171c03a921c1bc136675c7617e · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 5594781207dde5cfb5a53b2e5f780806cdd901b755b5e9582cb3e8c1f94cf872 · through week 8.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Recent rushing game context unavailable before this matchup.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | James MadisonOffense | TroyDefense | TroyOffense | James MadisonDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.27 88th | +0.07 51st | +0.06 26th | -0.01 81st |
| Success rate | 46.2% 69th | 40.3% 54th | 39.5% 19th | 37.1% 78th |
| Explosiveness | 1.25 59th | 1.24 42nd | 1.22 43rd | 1.20 59th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.16 75th | +0.05 42nd | +0.11 58th | -0.10 85th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.53 95th | +0.10 74th | -0.05 2nd | +0.14 61st |
| Havoc allowed / created | 10.6% 94th | 15.9% 50th | 17.5% 14th | 16.2% 55th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Oct 29, 2026, 6:16:36 AM CDT · assembled Oct 29, 2026, 6:16:36 AM CDT
Adjusted preview unavailable: kickoff reached. Saved evidence is retained.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 29, 2026, 6:16:34 AM CDT.
- Morgan Suarez · James Madison · PAAR 1.09 · 17 attempts
- Ethan Head · Troy · PAAR -5.04 · 12 attempts
- Hayden Wolfe · Troy · PAAR -1.09 · 1 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Kickoff reached; no retrospective pregame reconstruction
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
James Madison spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: -17.5 · Snapshot spread: -17.5
First locally observed: -17.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 52.5 · Snapshot total: 52.5
Total · First locally observed: 52.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -1050 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -800 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +675 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +550 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: -21 · Snapshot spread: -17.5
First locally observed: -21 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 52.5 · Snapshot total: 52
Total · First locally observed: 52.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -1500 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -1500 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +775 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +775 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
James Madison
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Sun Belt
Troy
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Sun Belt
Travel
Troy travels 608 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · 1 time zone crossed · up 802 ft in elevation.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
James Madison leads 2–0 in 2 meetings since 2023.
- 2025Troy at James Madison14–31 · James Madison
- 2023James Madison at Troy16–14 · James Madison
CFBD matchup data Last 2 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.