Week 9 · 2026
Delaware at Western Kentucky
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Retrospective prior-game summary; these observations were not verified available before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Delaware
Window: 2026-10-20 (reported) · 2026-10-13 (reported) · 2026-10-02 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-27T23:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Bell QB 3 games | 38.9% 21 / 54 plays | 31.3% 5 / 16 plays |
| Nick Minicucci QB 1 games | 56.7% 17 / 30 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
| Jo'Nathan Silver RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 40.0% 10 / 25 plays |
| EJ Archield Jr. QB 1 games | 47.4% 9 / 19 plays | 50.0% 2 / 4 plays |
| Kaderris Roberts RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 43.8% 7 / 16 plays |
| Viron Ellison Jr. RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 41.7% 5 / 12 plays |
| Braden Streeter QB 1 games | 28.6% 2 / 7 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Jared Porter RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 66.7% 2 / 3 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
Western Kentucky
Window: 2026-10-15 (reported) · 2026-10-08 (reported) · 2026-10-02 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-27T23:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Glenn QB 3 games | 30.4% 21 / 69 plays | 50.0% 20 / 40 plays |
| Rodney Tisdale Jr. QB 2 games | 34.0% 16 / 47 plays | 50.0% 2 / 4 plays |
| Ajay Allen RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 34.4% 11 / 32 plays |
| Le'Kamren Meadows RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 28.6% 2 / 7 plays |
| Jaden McGill RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 16.7% 1 / 6 plays |
| Jonathan Stafford Jr. WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 4 plays |
| Kalib Hicks RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 3 plays |
| Zion Taylor WR 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 2 / 2 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
Pregame weather
Forecast retained by the decision cutoff
Retained weather snapshot, separate from the saved model card. These are not live conditions.
Scheduled venue ID 3796 · Roof: Outdoor
71.0 °F · 1.2 mph · humidity 44%
Forecast precipitation 0.00 in, accumulated from 2026-10-27T18:00:00Z to 2026-10-28T00:00:00Z.
These are external forecast conditions, not measured indoor conditions or an adjustment to model picks.
- Forecast issued
- Unavailable
- Grid created
- Valid from
- Valid until
- Weather captured
- Schedule captured
- Decision cutoff
- Scheduled kickoff
Source evidence
Provider: nws · contract nws-grid-version-v1
Weather SHA-256: 24e1dc5c10dd68c7585ed2d9e1067f6a006cda05e5f3d9fe921cf0eefba56c7e
Schedule SHA-256: e2025768d7bbe19735d43b380dcc56ea1af7cb6946656a2c24b615d2b51e2191
game · cfbd /games · captured · SHA-256 e2025768d7bbe19735d43b380dcc56ea1af7cb6946656a2c24b615d2b51e2191
venues · cfbd /venues · captured · SHA-256 ae3ba696c1cc7bc4720289eb940209eb101647317b0bbbd768354c00ef0115a8
nws_point · nws https://api.weather.gov/points/36.9848,-86.4594 · captured · SHA-256 9f1a934a4d2a9586467fcc92514f9417c2999fca5bf4cd39c606c39c2df09ba6
nws_grid · nws https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/LMK/28,19 · captured · SHA-256 24e1dc5c10dd68c7585ed2d9e1067f6a006cda05e5f3d9fe921cf0eefba56c7e
Freshness policy: nws-grid-6h-capture-1h-v1, maximum grid age 6 hours and capture age 1 hours at cutoff.
Grid creation time does not establish original issuance or the age of each individual forecast layer.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
Missing event, weather or venue evidence.
- Scheduled venue match
- Unavailable
- Roof
- Unknown
- Scheduled kickoff
- Weather record captured
- Unavailable
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Source receipts
- weather
- SHA-256: Unavailable
- Provider version: Unavailable
- Receipt schema version: Unavailable
- schedule
- SHA-256: af0e0ad660fdfcf7ced40195c1473c3fe335b4cfee47112ccf7a4365d2e0cd96
- venues
- SHA-256: ae3ba696c1cc7bc4720289eb940209eb101647317b0bbbd768354c00ef0115a8
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
Western Kentucky -2.5
DraftKings snapshot: Western Kentucky -2.5
Western Kentucky by 2.85
0.35 points toward Western Kentucky versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Western Kentucky.
- Fitted offset: +5.87
- Fitted home field: -1.93
- Net EPA rating difference: -1.09
Reconciles to 2.85 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs bc82b122dcf1642a250ed3abcfcbd18474fcc5b528b4aa47504ce79caabe09d7 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 539fa7b778c0c03f94dcb336b99e7e979f389be58e399cb0bea9b80033542be7 · through week 8.
What changed?
12 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | -2.85 | -2.85 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +0.35 | +0.35 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor Western Kentucky; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
- Odds source SHA-256
- c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
- Odds source SHA-256
- 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: bc82b122dcf1642a250ed3abcfcbd18474fcc5b528b4aa47504ce79caabe09d7. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.
Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +0.3 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
Western Kentucky win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 57%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Western Kentucky -2.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 58%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Western Kentucky.
- home elo: -15.16 (path difference 1.02)
- home adjusted epa: +13.40 (path difference 0.43)
- away elo: +11.11 (path difference 6.74)
- home adjusted passing epa: -7.34 (path difference 3.17)
- away adjusted epa: +7.20 (path difference 1.89)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +6.40 (path difference 2.98)
- home adjusted second level yards: +6.35 (path difference 0.29)
- home adjusted success: -6.03 (path difference 1.11)
- home adjusted success allowed: +5.73 (path difference 0.57)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -5.22 (path difference 0.25)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -5.13 (path difference 1.90)
- away adjusted success allowed: +4.54 (path difference 0.20)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +4.11 (path difference 0.95)
- home adjusted line yards: -3.68 (path difference 0.93)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: -3.38 (path difference 4.00)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +3.32 (path difference 0.10)
- away talent: +2.84 (path difference 0.97)
- away adjusted success: +2.52 (path difference 1.38)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.48 (path difference 1.93)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +2.22 (path difference 0.72)
- away adjusted epa allowed: +1.99 (path difference 0.04)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +1.97 (path difference 0.26)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: -1.89 (path difference 2.89)
- home adjusted open field yards: -1.84 (path difference 1.40)
- home talent: +1.64 (path difference 0.55)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.34 (path difference 0.01)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -1.30 (path difference 0.65)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +1.13 (path difference 1.09)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.99 (path difference 1.20)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.85 (path difference 0.53)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.82 (path difference 0.32)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.81 (path difference 0.30)
- away adjusted passing down success: -0.80 (path difference 1.29)
- home adjusted standard down success: -0.77 (path difference 0.38)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.76 (path difference 0.94)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.67 (path difference 0.62)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.64 (path difference 0.32)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.63 (path difference 2.91)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.61 (path difference 0.33)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.47 (path difference 0.85)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: -0.39 (path difference 1.29)
- week: -0.32 (path difference 1.57)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.31 (path difference 0.05)
- home adjusted passing down success: +0.29 (path difference 0.01)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.29 (path difference 0.87)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.15 (path difference 0.02)
- away adjusted open field yards: -0.10 (path difference 1.21)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.08 (path difference 0.82)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +0.07 (path difference 0.46)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.05 (path difference 0.50)
- away adjusted standard down success: -0.04 (path difference 0.00)
- away adjusted line yards: -0.03 (path difference 0.01)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.01 (path difference 0.00)
- home conference: 0.00 (path difference 0.00)
- away conference: 0.00 (path difference 0.00)
Reconciles to 58.10 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 4aced85cfb75b3e89aac3986edb8f1d03144084678758a44305746b7f4caa344 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 5edd96b04053f44e96665e48b0fa4ab3ba5890764d9a603e30a359604d14f90c · through week 8.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Recent rushing game context unavailable before this matchup.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | Western KentuckyOffense | DelawareDefense | DelawareOffense | Western KentuckyDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.03 16th | +0.12 34th | +0.11 40th | +0.13 32nd |
| Success rate | 36.6% 6th | 41.9% 40th | 41.1% 35th | 39.5% 61st |
| Explosiveness | 1.25 58th | 1.31 19th | 1.29 74th | 1.40 4th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | -0.07 8th | +0.11 22nd | +0.02 26th | +0.11 18th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.19 37th | +0.15 58th | +0.29 61st | +0.15 59th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 15.6% 39th | 17.1% 69th | 17.8% 9th | 15.6% 49th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Oct 26, 2026, 8:44:07 PM CDT · assembled Oct 26, 2026, 8:44:07 PM CDT
Adjusted preview unavailable: kickoff reached. Saved evidence is retained.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 26, 2026, 8:44:09 PM CDT.
- Karl Campbell · Western Kentucky · PAAR 6.13 · 8 attempts
- Tucker Smack · Delaware · PAAR -0.49 · 8 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Kickoff reached; no retrospective pregame reconstruction
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Western Kentucky spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: +2.5 · Snapshot spread: -2.5
First locally observed: +2.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 58.5 · Snapshot total: 55.5
Total · First locally observed: 58.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -130 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +114 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +110 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -135 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: +1 · Snapshot spread: -2.5
First locally observed: -1.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 56 · Snapshot total: 55.5
Total · First locally observed: 56 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -110 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -110 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -110 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -110 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Western Kentucky
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Conference USA
Delaware
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.1 · 7 rated weeks · Conference USA
Travel
Delaware travels 609 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · 1 time zone crossed.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Western Kentucky leads 1–0 in 1 meetings since 2025.
- 2025Western Kentucky at Delaware27–24 · Western Kentucky
CFBD matchup data Last 1 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.