Week 9 · 2026
Sam Houston at Missouri State
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Retrospective prior-game summary; these observations were not verified available before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Sam Houston
Window: 2026-10-22 (reported) · 2026-10-15 (reported) · 2026-10-08 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-28T00:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Landyn Locke QB 3 games | 25.3% 24 / 95 plays | 12.5% 1 / 8 plays |
| MJ Dowdy RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 40.0% 10 / 25 plays |
| Alton McCaskill RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 3 / 12 plays |
| Landan Brown RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 30.0% 3 / 10 plays |
| Jerrian Parker RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 1 / 4 plays |
| DJ Bailey QB 1 games | 0.0% 0 / 3 plays | — 0 / 0 plays |
| Brett Holloway QB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 3 plays |
| Kyan Berry-Johnson WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
Missouri State
Window: 2026-10-20 (reported) · 2026-10-14 (reported) · 2026-10-08 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-28T00:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Henry Belin IV QB 3 games | 42.9% 39 / 91 plays | 36.4% 4 / 11 plays |
| Connor Lair RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 58.8% 20 / 34 plays |
| Skyler Locklear QB 1 games | 28.0% 7 / 25 plays | 71.4% 5 / 7 plays |
| Ramone Green Jr. RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 44.4% 8 / 18 plays |
| Jambres Dubar RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 40.0% 2 / 5 plays |
| King Davis RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 1 / 4 plays |
| Jmariyae Robinson WR 1 games | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays | — 0 / 0 plays |
Traditional season production · 0 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Season totals were captured after kickoff or the kickoff is unresolved; they are unavailable for this preview.
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
Sam Houston +5.25
EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.
Missouri State -5.25
DraftKings snapshot: Missouri State -5.5
Book quote differs from the comparison line.
Missouri State by 0.53
4.72 points toward Sam Houston versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Missouri State.
- Fitted offset: +5.87
- Net EPA rating difference: -3.40
- Fitted home field: -1.93
Reconciles to 0.53 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs df33748dc1d7454a1b2409acbc64e062780f863dab39d0e8e11e190663ce9481 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast e4a9799e9e4eccd8403006be60a070919821e558014d830d900e26fc34b3044d · through week 8.
What changed?
12 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -5.25 | -5.25 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | -0.53 | -0.53 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | -4.72 | -4.72 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor Missouri State; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
- Odds source SHA-256
- c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
- Odds source SHA-256
- 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
Model context & pick method
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: df33748dc1d7454a1b2409acbc64e062780f863dab39d0e8e11e190663ce9481. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.
Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
Margins are not projected scores.
Pick logic
Sam Houston +5.25
Model gap -4.7 points
A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Missouri State.
Win probabilities · separate sources
Missouri State win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 64%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Missouri State -5
- Stacked ensemble
- 66%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Missouri State.
- away elo: +23.28 (path difference 6.07)
- home elo: -18.66 (path difference 3.66)
- home adjusted success allowed: -13.84 (path difference 3.85)
- away adjusted epa: +12.65 (path difference 5.34)
- home adjusted epa: +8.34 (path difference 6.09)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -6.34 (path difference 3.45)
- home adjusted epa allowed: +5.97 (path difference 0.82)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +5.89 (path difference 5.68)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: +5.66 (path difference 1.91)
- home adjusted second level yards: +5.38 (path difference 0.33)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.81 (path difference 0.87)
- away adjusted success: +4.80 (path difference 0.46)
- away adjusted rushing epa: -4.65 (path difference 2.51)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -3.35 (path difference 2.73)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +3.07 (path difference 0.06)
- home adjusted line yards: -2.70 (path difference 0.72)
- away adjusted passing down success: -2.35 (path difference 0.24)
- away adjusted success allowed: +2.22 (path difference 0.89)
- home adjusted open field yards: -1.95 (path difference 0.41)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.89 (path difference 0.02)
- away adjusted second level yards: +1.53 (path difference 1.55)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +1.45 (path difference 0.82)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -1.44 (path difference 0.52)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: -1.36 (path difference 0.98)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +1.34 (path difference 0.63)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.32 (path difference 0.97)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: -1.31 (path difference 1.42)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +1.25 (path difference 1.19)
- home adjusted passing epa: -1.19 (path difference 0.11)
- home adjusted passing down success: +1.18 (path difference 1.84)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.00 (path difference 0.13)
- away adjusted standard down success: -1.00 (path difference 0.46)
- home talent: +0.91 (path difference 0.60)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.89 (path difference 0.39)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.87 (path difference 0.21)
- away adjusted line yards: +0.68 (path difference 0.43)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.67 (path difference 0.81)
- away talent: +0.65 (path difference 0.52)
- home adjusted success: -0.64 (path difference 0.03)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.62 (path difference 0.63)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.47 (path difference 2.80)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.41 (path difference 0.01)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +0.41 (path difference 0.64)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.40 (path difference 0.89)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.36 (path difference 0.93)
- week: -0.27 (path difference 1.48)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: +0.26 (path difference 0.02)
- away adjusted open field yards: -0.23 (path difference 2.15)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -0.22 (path difference 0.30)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.19 (path difference 0.09)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.03 (path difference 0.44)
- home adjusted standard down success: +0.03 (path difference 0.88)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.01 (path difference 0.00)
- home conference: 0.00 (path difference 0.00)
- away conference: 0.00 (path difference 0.00)
Reconciles to 65.85 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 58c15213f671e084c5fc8564496af0517d384210a9ddf8050467a1d9bb2c67aa · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast e41c439854f9b712d7f253feda73f89fbc6690cf5101491339714bc9928c788f · through week 8.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Recent rushing game context unavailable before this matchup.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | Missouri StateOffense | Sam HoustonDefense | Sam HoustonOffense | Missouri StateDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.08 31st | +0.08 45th | -0.02 9th | +0.26 2nd |
| Success rate | 41.4% 38th | 39.7% 61st | 37.4% 8th | 50.0% 2nd |
| Explosiveness | 1.24 49th | 1.18 68th | 1.31 80th | 1.11 89th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.02 24th | +0.06 36th | -0.11 1st | +0.23 4th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.21 41st | +0.12 71st | +0.16 28th | +0.35 13th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 16.3% 29th | 18.5% 84th | 19.8% 2nd | 12.7% 11th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Oct 26, 2026, 8:44:10 PM CDT · assembled Oct 26, 2026, 8:44:10 PM CDT
Adjusted preview unavailable: kickoff reached. Saved evidence is retained.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 26, 2026, 8:44:09 PM CDT.
- Samuel Carpenter · Sam Houston · PAAR -0.63 · 8 attempts
- Yousef Obeid · Missouri State · PAAR -1.47 · 10 attempts
- Stewart McDonald · Missouri State · PAAR -1.97 · 1 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Kickoff reached; no retrospective pregame reconstruction
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Missouri State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: -6 · Snapshot spread: -5.5
First locally observed: -6.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 51.5 · Snapshot total: 51.5
Total · First locally observed: 51.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -218 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -225 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +180 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +185 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: a8c42f976191b616f9a7a2f6dec7255a67c83761cfa6f554b313d2e394aa9c88
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: -6 · Snapshot spread: -5
First locally observed: -6 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 49.5 · Snapshot total: 52
Total · First locally observed: 49.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -230 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -230 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +190 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +190 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Missouri State
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.2 · 8 rated weeks · Conference USA
Sam Houston
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.2 · 8 rated weeks · Conference USA
Travel
Sam Houston travels 466 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change · up 901 ft in elevation.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Series tied 1–1 in 2 meetings since 2004.
- 2006Sam Houston at Missouri State20–17 · Sam Houston
- 2004 · NSam Houston at Missouri State31–33 · Missouri State
CFBD matchup data Last 2 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.