Missouri State

2026 season

Conference USA

2026 preseason report

Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.

What every system says

Missouri State's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 123 across 8 systems; best 117, worst 134, so they disagree by 17 places.

Lab EPA: #134; Through week 92026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Lab SRS: #122; up 62026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 9 · built 2026-11-06T12:26:24.430328+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
SP+: #120; up 82026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 10 · captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Elo: #117; up 62026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9 · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI: #124; up 42026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CORE: #130; up 4 · Through week 9 · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9 · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD SRS: #120; up 112026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
WEPA: #134; up 22026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

Compare every team

FPI context

ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026

Résumé and schedule

Results earned and schedule difficulty

Strength of record: #117 of 138
Schedule strength: #85 of 138
Remaining schedule strength: #94 of 138
Game control: #102 of 138

Unit efficiency

Performance by unit

Overall: #117 of 138
Offense: #95 of 138
Defense: #127 of 138
Special teams: #85 of 138

Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.

Why the ratings disagree

Missouri State · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.

Record

3-5 wins–losses

No rank assigned

Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.

2026, provider Week 10; captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00

SP+ workbook record

Descriptive EPA

-0.192 net EPA/play

#134

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.

2026, through CFBD Week 9; opponent adjusted ridge

Lab EPA from CFBD plays

Local predictive SRS

-9.59 points

#122 · Up 6 places since the previous CFBD cutoff

2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 9 · built 2026-11-06T12:26:24.430328+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.

This season's 8 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin -4.35 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging -7.10, schedule #122 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average -4.87. That is worth -11.45 on its own; the preseason prior of -3.16 still carries 22% of the weight, giving -9.59.

How each game enters this SRS rating

Missouri State · 2026, through CFBD Week 9. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.

Game	Raw margin → transformed	Venue adjustment	Recency weight	Fit share	Opponent rating	Margin term	Opponent term	Total term
Week 1 · Texas A&M away · 2026-09-05 · ID 401856668	-50.00 → -35.00	+2.50	0.7349	8.26%	+7.38	-2.685	0.610	-2.075
Week 2 · Lindenwood home · 2026-09-12 · ID 401871046	+34.00 → +34.00	-2.50	0.7637	8.58%	-25.00 (fixed lower division)	2.704	-2.146	0.558
Week 3 · Marshall home · 2026-09-19 · ID 401871047	-6.00 → -6.00	-2.50	0.7937	8.92%	-8.58	-0.758	-0.765	-1.523
Week 4 · SMU away · 2026-09-27 · ID 401858241	-10.00 → -10.00	+2.50	0.8249	9.27%	+6.27	-0.695	0.582	-0.114
Week 6 · Western Kentucky away · 2026-10-08 · ID 401871052	-21.00 → -21.00	+2.50	0.8909	10.01%	-9.90	-1.853	-0.992	-2.844
Week 7 · Kennesaw State home · 2026-10-14 · ID 401871054	+3.00 → +3.00	-2.50	0.9259	10.41%	-6.67	0.052	-0.694	-0.642
Week 8 · Delaware away · 2026-10-20 · ID 401871069	-23.00 → -23.00	+2.50	0.9622	10.82%	-4.08	-2.217	-0.442	-2.659
Week 9 · Sam Houston home · 2026-10-28 · ID 401871072	+21.00 → +21.00	-2.50	1.0000	11.24%	-14.73	2.080	-1.656	0.424

Game terms -8.88 points; prior term -0.71 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating -9.59 points. The preseason prior is -3.16 with 22.48% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.

These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±8.8 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.

Download fitted terms and source hashes

Estimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 8 current games; prior available.

2026, through CFBD Week 9; generated 2026-11-06T12:26:24.430328+00:00

Lab SRS from CFBD scores

External SP+

-14.1 SP+ points

#120 · Up 8 places

2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 10 · captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.

Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.

2026, provider Week 10; captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00

Bill Connelly SP+ workbook

External CORE

-19.39 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays

#130 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)

2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 9; model core-v1; captured 2026-11-06T12:03:20.826325+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.

CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense -6.84 on 391 plays; defense 12.55 on 472 plays.

2026, through regular Week 9; model core-v1; captured 2026-11-06T12:03:20.826325+00:00

CFBD CORE rating CORE board: offense vs defense

EPA ranks Missouri State 12 places lower than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 9 and 10. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.

Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.

Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidence

Program context

2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches

Record: 3-5 · conf 2-2 · home 3-1 · away 0-4 · expected wins 3.3
Polls (Week 10): unranked
CFP latest: unranked · 2026 regular Week 10 · captured 2026-11-06
CFP final: not published
Against the spread: 2026: 4-4 ATS (+0.6 avg) · 2025: 7-6 ATS (+1.4 avg)
Head coach: Casey Woods · hired 2025-12-19 · 0-0 over 1 captured season
Recruiting classes: 2025 #136 (53 pts) · 2026 #131 (152 pts)
Returning: 31% of production · 19% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
Category Production Usage
Passing 5% 0%
Receiving 47% 42%
Rushing -3% 19%
Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.

Category	Production	Usage
Passing	5%	0%
Receiving	47%	42%
Rushing	-3%	19%

Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-11-06. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.

Recruiting by position group

2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-11-06 UTC

Position group	Commits	Avg. stars	Avg. rating	Total rating
Defensive Back	5	3.00	0.8393	4.20
Defensive Line	8	2.63	0.8178	6.54
Linebacker	2	3.00	0.8425	1.69
Offensive Line	4	3.00	0.8298	3.32
Quarterback	3	2.67	0.8270	2.48
Receiver	5	2.60	0.8213	4.11
Running Back	2	3.00	0.8417	1.68
Special Teams	3	2.33	0.8033	2.41

Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.

Player efficiency and usage

2026 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC

Passing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions

Player / history	Metric	Value	Plays / attempts	Overall usage	Usage detail	Recruiting
Henry Belin IV · QB CFBD athlete 4685252. Duke (2022–2025); Missouri State (2026–2026)	Passing WEPA	0.392	132	31.6%	Pass 56.1% · Rush 7.1% 1st 29.0% · 2nd 29.3% · 3rd 37.4% Standard downs 27.2% · Passing downs 41.4%	2022: 3★ · 0.8633
Skyler Locklear · QB CFBD athlete 5083042. Austin Peay (2022–2023); Missouri State (2026–2026); UTEP (2024–2025)	Passing WEPA	0.187	94	43.8%	Pass 74.8% · Rush 15.1% 1st 42.2% · 2nd 39.4% · 3rd 58.8% Standard downs 39.4% · Passing downs 52.9%	2022: stars unavailable
Connor Lair · RB CFBD athlete 5085729. Missouri State (2022–2022); Missouri State (2024–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.133	65	15.0%	Pass 4.5% · Rush 26.1% 1st 14.0% · 2nd 17.1% · 3rd 12.7% Standard downs 15.9% · Passing downs 13.2%	Not linked
Ramone Green Jr. · RB CFBD athlete 5154284. Missouri State (2023–2026)	Rushing WEPA	0.004	54	15.4%	Pass 5.3% · Rush 26.1% 1st 17.7% · 2nd 16.5% · 3rd 11.8% Standard downs 17.9% · Passing downs 10.1%	Not linked
Yousef Obeid · PK CFBD athlete 5155163. Michigan State (2023–2023); Missouri State (2024–2026)	Kicker PAAR	-2.280	12	—	Pass — · Rush — 1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs —	Not linked
Stewart McDonald · P CFBD athlete 5227774. Missouri State (2025–2026)	Kicker PAAR	-1.970	1	—	Pass — · Rush — 1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs —	Not linked
Amar'e Johnson · RB CFBD athlete 5327017. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	8.9%	Pass 0.0% · Rush 13.5% 1st 8.8% · 2nd 11.1% · 3rd 7.1% Standard downs 10.9% · Passing downs 4.2%	Not linked
Brendon McQueen · WR CFBD athlete 5227770. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.8%	Pass 6.9% · Rush 0.0% 1st 2.6% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 11.1% Standard downs 3.1% · Passing downs 5.1%	Not linked
Dillon Hipp · TE CFBD athlete 5128052. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	3.4%	Pass 6.7% · Rush 0.0% 1st 2.1% · 2nd 3.4% · 3rd 6.7% Standard downs 2.6% · Passing downs 5.1%	Not linked
Elijah Leonard · QB CFBD athlete 5227766. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.3%	Pass 3.8% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 7.1% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 4.2%	Not linked
Isaiah McMorris · WR CFBD athlete 5146723. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.2%	Pass 9.0% · Rush 0.0% 1st 3.5% · 2nd 2.1% · 3rd 6.7% Standard downs 4.3% · Passing downs 4.1%	Not linked
Isaiah Myers · WR CFBD athlete 5219476. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	11.1%	Pass 22.0% · Rush 0.8% 1st 10.7% · 2nd 10.6% · 3rd 13.7% Standard downs 10.1% · Passing downs 13.2%	Not linked
Jambres Dubar · RB CFBD athlete 5077390. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	12.0%	Pass 3.5% · Rush 20.1% 1st 15.8% · 2nd 15.1% · 3rd 1.3% Standard downs 15.1% · Passing downs 5.7%	Not linked
James Rexroat · TE CFBD athlete 5221049. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.3%	Pass 3.8% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 3.7% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 0.0%	Not linked
Jeron Askren · TE CFBD athlete 5227784. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	5.2%	Pass 10.1% · Rush 0.0% 1st 7.3% · 2nd 2.8% · 3rd 4.3% Standard downs 5.8% · Passing downs 3.9%	Not linked
Jmariyae Robinson · WR CFBD athlete 4837193. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	14.0%	Pass 29.4% · Rush 0.9% 1st 14.6% · 2nd 7.3% · 3rd 22.1% Standard downs 12.0% · Passing downs 18.7%	Not linked
King Davis · RB CFBD athlete 5164337. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	4.7%	Pass 0.7% · Rush 8.2% 1st 4.5% · 2nd 5.6% · 3rd 4.4% Standard downs 6.4% · Passing downs 1.0%	Not linked
Makai Cope · WR CFBD athlete 4602895. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	2.4%	Pass 4.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 1.6% · 2nd 2.0% · 3rd 3.3% Standard downs 1.5% · Passing downs 4.2%	Not linked
Mekhi Miller · WR CFBD athlete 4712886. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	5.3%	Pass 11.6% · Rush 0.0% 1st 6.6% · 2nd 6.3% · 3rd 2.5% Standard downs 4.8% · Passing downs 6.5%	Not linked
Michael Osei-Bonsu · TE CFBD athlete 5383072. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.3%	Pass 3.8% · Rush 0.0% 1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 7.1% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 4.2%	Not linked
Witt Edwards · TE CFBD athlete 5147337. Team attribution from the captured season usage record.	Not available	—	—	1.6%	Pass 3.8% · Rush 0.0% 1st 1.6% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 4.7% Standard downs 0.9% · Passing downs 3.1%	Not linked

Transfers

Incoming · 19 reported

Player	From	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Breezy Dubar · RB	Boise State	2026-01-16	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Dylan Brooks · EDGE	Kansas	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate
Geo Jallah · S	Not reported	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Henry Belin IV · QB	Duke	2026-01-16	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Isaiah Myers · WR	Western Kentucky	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Isaiah Villanueva · IOL	Jackson State	2026-01-16	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Jalile Elliott · EDGE	Barton	2026-01-09	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Joel Kpassou · CB	Duquesne	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Josh Lukusa · EDGE	Miami (OH)	2026-01-18	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Kellen Lindstrom · EDGE	Tennessee	2026-01-15	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
King Large · OT	SMU	2026-01-11	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Malachi Madison · DL	Massachusetts	2026-01-13	3★ / 0.8200	Immediate
Markell Chapman · DL	Iowa State	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Mekhi Miller · WR	Tulsa	2026-01-11	3★ / —	Immediate
Skyler Locklear · QB	UTEP	2026-01-16	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Stratton Shufelt · LB	UTEP	2026-01-20	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Tim Coleman · LS	UVA Wise	2026-01-17	— / —	Immediate
William Dixon III · OT	VMI	2026-02-03	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Witt Edwards · TE	Vanderbilt	2026-01-17	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate

Outgoing · 11 reported

Player	To	Date	Stars / rating	Eligibility
Ahmad Poole · DL	Coastal Carolina	2026-01-11	— / —	Immediate
Cash Hudson · IOL	South Florida	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
DJ Wesolak · EDGE	Coastal Carolina	2026-04-22	3★ / 0.8400	Immediate
Ebubedike Nnabugwu · IOL	South Carolina	2026-01-19	3★ / 0.8300	Immediate
Floyd Williams · CB	Not reported	2025-12-15	— / —	Immediate
JJ O'Neal · S	Not reported	2025-12-12	— / —	Immediate
Jeron Askren · TE	Not reported	2025-12-28	2★ / —	Immediate
Mitchell Toney · DL	Coastal Carolina	2026-01-17	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Ronnel Johnson · WR	Jacksonville State	2026-01-12	3★ / 0.8500	Immediate
Tim Brantley Jr. · DL	Not reported	2025-12-22	— / —	Immediate
Tristian Gardner · WR	Coastal Carolina	2026-01-10	3★ / 0.8600	Immediate

Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.

Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.

Coaching eras

Continuous appointments at Missouri State. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.

Casey Woods · career 0–0 across 1 seasons and 1 schools

Tenure timeline · 3 appointments

2026–present · Casey Woods · active at capture
0–0 · 0 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2025-12-19. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2025–2025 · Nick Petrino · interim
0–1 · 1 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2025-12-11. Effective dates: 2025-12-18 to unknown.
2025–2025 · Ryan Beard
7–5 · 12 attributed games · 1 seasons
Hired 2022-12-16. Effective dates: unknown to 2025-12-18.

Season résumé · 2015–2026

Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.

Season / coach	Record	Conference	Postseason	SP+	SRS	Recruiting rank	Final poll
2026 · Casey Woods · incomplete attribution	0–0	—	—	-16.6	-17.1	131	—
2025 · Ryan Beard	7–5	5–3	0–0	-10.7	-8.8	136	—
2025 · Nick Petrino	0–1	0–0	0–1	-10.7	-8.8	136	—

Download coaching history JSON

Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.

CFBD season overview

2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.

Captured 2026-11-02 13:51:41.272114 UTC · Source data

Stat rankings

CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-11-01 14:08:00 UTC · calculated 2026-11-02 13:47:25 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-11-02 13:57:25 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.

Statistic	Offense rank / population	Percentile	Defense rank / population	Percentile
PPA / play	92 / 138	33.6	125 / 138	9.5
Success rate	95 / 138	31.4	132 / 138	4.4
Explosiveness	48 / 138	65.7	26 / 138	81.8
Standard-down success	79 / 138	43.1	135 / 138	2.2
Passing-down success	112 / 138	19.0	121 / 138	12.4
Pass PPA	53 / 138	62.0	119 / 138	13.9
Rush PPA	120 / 138	13.1	111 / 138	19.7
Pass explosiveness	12 / 138	92.0	54 / 138	61.3
Rush explosiveness	119 / 138	13.9	25 / 138	82.5
Line yards	110 / 138	20.4	122 / 138	11.7
Second-level yards	109 / 138	21.2	111 / 138	19.7
Open-field yards	107 / 138	22.6	77 / 138	44.5
Stuff rate	96 / 138	30.7	112 / 138	19.0
Power success	75 / 138	46.0	99 / 138	28.5
Havoc	T109 / 138	20.8	T92 / 138	32.8
Front-seven havoc	T122 / 138	11.3	T109 / 138	19.7
DB havoc	62 / 138	55.5	T44 / 138	66.8
Points / opportunity	58 / 138	58.4	105 / 138	24.1
Average field position	T126 / 138	8.4	136 / 138	1.5
Field-position expected points	128 / 138	7.3	133 / 138	3.6

Player PPA and usage

Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.

Skyler Locklear · QBUsage 43.8% · Avg PPA 0.143 · Total 19.703

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.143	19.703	43.8%
Pass	0.209	23.616	74.8%
Rush	-0.035	-0.842	15.1%
1st down	0.187	10.115	42.2%
2nd down	0.082	3.380	39.4%
3rd down	0.464	18.577	58.8%
Standard downs	0.077	6.480	39.4%
Passing downs	0.245	13.223	52.9%

Henry Belin IV · QBUsage 31.6% · Avg PPA 0.149 · Total 21.835

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.149	21.835	31.6%
Pass	0.279	35.758	56.1%
Rush	-0.226	-3.615	7.1%
1st down	0.157	9.084	29.0%
2nd down	0.002	0.097	29.3%
3rd down	0.738	25.082	37.4%
Standard downs	0.218	18.968	27.2%
Passing downs	0.048	2.867	41.4%

Ramone Green Jr. · RBUsage 15.4% · Avg PPA -0.035 · Total -2.695

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.035	-2.695	15.4%
Pass	-0.033	-0.428	5.3%
Rush	-0.035	-2.266	26.1%
1st down	-0.040	-1.509	17.7%
2nd down	-0.051	-1.423	16.5%
3rd down	0.020	0.237	11.8%
Standard downs	-0.064	-3.977	17.9%
Passing downs	0.080	1.283	10.1%

Connor Lair · RBUsage 15.0% · Avg PPA 0.076 · Total 5.795

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.076	5.795	15.0%
Pass	0.419	4.609	4.5%
Rush	0.018	1.186	26.1%
1st down	-0.095	-2.850	14.0%
2nd down	0.265	7.682	17.1%
3rd down	0.620	8.066	12.7%
Standard downs	0.002	0.098	15.9%
Passing downs	0.271	5.697	13.2%

Jmariyae Robinson · WRUsage 14.0% · Avg PPA 0.094 · Total 5.850

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.094	5.850	14.0%
Pass	0.088	5.258	29.4%
Rush	0.296	0.592	0.9%
1st down	0.153	4.285	14.6%
2nd down	0.036	0.391	7.3%
3rd down	0.455	8.638	22.1%
Standard downs	0.145	5.378	12.0%
Passing downs	0.019	0.472	18.7%

Jambres Dubar · RBUsage 12.0% · Avg PPA -0.003 · Total -0.118

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.003	-0.118	12.0%
Pass	-0.347	-2.082	3.5%
Rush	0.050	1.964	20.1%
1st down	-0.199	-4.781	15.8%
2nd down	0.117	2.229	15.1%
3rd down	1.171	1.171	1.3%
Standard downs	-0.194	-7.370	15.1%
Passing downs	1.036	7.252	5.7%

Isaiah Myers · WRUsage 11.1% · Avg PPA 1.341 · Total 75.070

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	1.341	75.070	11.1%
Pass	1.337	72.173	22.0%
Rush	1.448	2.896	0.8%
1st down	1.073	24.669	10.7%
2nd down	0.957	17.231	10.6%
3rd down	2.083	29.157	13.7%
Standard downs	1.257	43.978	10.1%
Passing downs	1.481	31.092	13.2%

Amar'e Johnson · RBUsage 8.9% · Avg PPA 0.215 · Total 1.502

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.215	1.502	8.9%
Pass	—	0.000	0.0%
Rush	0.215	1.502	13.5%
1st down	0.204	0.612	8.8%
2nd down	0.155	0.466	11.1%
3rd down	0.424	0.424	7.1%
Standard downs	-0.051	-0.305	10.9%
Passing downs	1.807	1.807	4.2%

Mekhi Miller · WRUsage 5.3% · Avg PPA 0.234 · Total 4.690

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.234	4.690	5.3%
Pass	0.234	4.690	11.6%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.013	0.135	6.6%
2nd down	0.299	2.394	6.3%
3rd down	1.081	2.161	2.5%
Standard downs	0.185	2.225	4.8%
Passing downs	0.308	2.465	6.5%

Jeron Askren · TEUsage 5.2% · Avg PPA 0.169 · Total 2.873

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.169	2.873	5.2%
Pass	0.169	2.873	10.1%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.102	-1.018	7.3%
2nd down	0.683	2.048	2.8%
3rd down	-0.202	-0.606	4.3%
Standard downs	0.255	3.310	5.8%
Passing downs	-0.109	-0.436	3.9%

King Davis · RBUsage 4.7% · Avg PPA -0.138 · Total -2.066

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.138	-2.066	4.7%
Pass	-0.395	-0.395	0.7%
Rush	-0.119	-1.671	8.2%
1st down	-0.492	-2.954	4.5%
2nd down	0.120	0.723	5.6%
3rd down	0.055	0.165	4.4%
Standard downs	-0.104	-1.461	6.4%
Passing downs	-0.606	-0.606	1.0%

Isaiah McMorris · WRUsage 4.2% · Avg PPA -0.558 · Total -3.348

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.558	-3.348	4.2%
Pass	-0.558	-3.348	9.0%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.088	0.177	3.5%
2nd down	-0.347	-0.347	2.1%
3rd down	0.344	0.687	6.7%
Standard downs	0.155	0.620	4.3%
Passing downs	-1.984	-3.968	4.1%

Brendon McQueen · WRUsage 3.8% · Avg PPA -0.329 · Total -1.317

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.329	-1.317	3.8%
Pass	-0.329	-1.317	6.9%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-1.157	-1.157	2.6%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	-0.053	-0.159	11.1%
Standard downs	-0.786	-1.572	3.1%
Passing downs	0.128	0.256	5.1%

Dillon Hipp · TEUsage 3.4% · Avg PPA 0.516 · Total 7.736

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.516	7.736	3.4%
Pass	0.516	7.736	6.7%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	0.524	2.095	2.1%
2nd down	0.022	0.110	3.4%
3rd down	0.922	5.531	6.7%
Standard downs	0.505	4.041	2.6%
Passing downs	0.528	3.695	5.1%

Makai Cope · WRUsage 2.4% · Avg PPA -0.973 · Total -6.808

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	-0.973	-6.808	2.4%
Pass	-0.973	-6.808	4.6%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	-0.226	-0.451	1.6%
2nd down	-1.020	-2.040	2.0%
3rd down	-0.348	-0.697	3.3%
Standard downs	-0.527	-1.582	1.5%
Passing downs	-1.306	-5.226	4.2%

Witt Edwards · TEUsage 1.6% · Avg PPA 0.972 · Total 4.860

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.972	4.860	1.6%
Pass	0.972	4.860	3.8%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	2.957	5.913	1.6%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	-0.351	-1.053	4.7%
Standard downs	2.957	5.913	0.9%
Passing downs	-0.351	-1.053	3.1%

Elijah Leonard · QBUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 2.310 · Total 2.310

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	2.310	2.310	1.3%
Pass	2.310	2.310	3.8%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	2.310	2.310	7.1%
Standard downs	—	0.000	0.0%
Passing downs	2.310	2.310	4.2%

James Rexroat · TEUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 0.085 · Total 0.085

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	0.085	0.085	1.3%
Pass	0.085	0.085	3.8%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	0.085	0.085	3.7%
3rd down	—	0.000	0.0%
Standard downs	0.085	0.085	1.8%
Passing downs	—	0.000	0.0%

Michael Osei-Bonsu · TEUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA 2.310 · Total 2.310

Split	Average PPA	Total PPA	Usage
Overall	2.310	2.310	1.3%
Pass	2.310	2.310	3.8%
Rush	—	0.000	0.0%
1st down	—	0.000	0.0%
2nd down	—	0.000	0.0%
3rd down	2.310	2.310	7.1%
Standard downs	—	0.000	0.0%
Passing downs	2.310	2.310	4.2%

Where Missouri State sits · 2026 FBS distributions138 teams · raw PPA

2026 · Through provider Week 9. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.

Values and percentiles

Missouri State metric values with FBS percentiles, 2026
Metric	Value	Percentile	Better
Offense PPA/play	0.090	34th138 teams	higher
Offense success rate	0.407	31st138 teams	higher
Offense explosiveness	1.270	66th138 teams	higher
Offense pass PPA/play	0.263	62nd138 teams	higher
Offense rush PPA/play	-0.012	13th138 teams	higher
Defense PPA/play	0.227	9th138 teams	lower
Defense success rate	0.481	4th138 teams	lower
Defense explosiveness	1.145	82nd138 teams	lower
Defense havoc created	0.147	33rd138 teams	higher

Passing profile

2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPA

Captured 2026-11-06. Offense: 99% of 235 attempts charted. Average depth of target 8.6 yards (48th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 5.7 per completion. Completion 66.8%, 7.9 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.27.

Completion percentage over expected (CPOE)
Side	Actual	Expected	CPOE (pp)	Qualifying / all attempts
Offense	64.6%	62.4%	+2.2	209 / 235
Defense allowed	66.9%	60.8%	+6.2	236 / 263

Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.

Depth of target vs yards after catch, FBS offenses

138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Missouri State.

Target mix by zone, Missouri State offense

Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.

Defense and rushing detail

Missouri State passing defense and rushing profile, 2026
Side	Attempts	Charted	ADOT	YAC	Comp %	PPA	CPOE	CPOE att
Passing offense	235	99%	8.6	5.7	66.8%	0.27	+2.2 pp	209
Passing defense	263	98%	9.1	5.4	65.4%	0.38	+6.2 pp	236

Rushing production

Side	Attempts	Yards / carry	Success	PPA	Line yards / rush	Second-level yards / rush	Open-field yards / rush	Stuff rate	Power success
Offense	264	3.8	45.9%	0.05	2.90	0.90	0.90	16.5%	74.4%
Defense allowed	300	4.3	48.7%	0.18	3.30	1.10	0.90	12.9%	76.1%

Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.

Rushing sample and attribution

Side	Yards recorded	Individual	Unattributed	Sacks	Kneels	Team rushes	Multiple carriers	Direction located / eligible
Offense	254 / 264	248	16	16	6	6	0	242 / 242 · 100.0%
Defense allowed	294 / 300	270	30	13	8	8	0	275 / 279 · 98.6%

Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.

Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.

Game-by-game passing and rushing

MetricSide

2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season +2.2 pp. 7 of 8 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.

CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.

Game log and attempt coverage

Week	Opponent	Pass att	CPOE att	Comp %*	Expected %*	CPOE	ADOT	Pass PPA	Rush att	Rush yds/carry	Rush PPA
W1	Texas A&M	17	17	47.1%	65.3%	-18.3 pp	7.2	-0.27	23	1.4	-0.56
W2	Lindenwood	25	0	—	—	—	10.1	0.72	53	4.7	0.29
W3	Marshall	29	29	69.0%	61.1%	+7.9 pp	8.6	0.64	36	5.2	0.17
W4	SMU	33	33	63.6%	61.2%	+2.5 pp	8.7	-0.12	28	2.6	-0.08
W6	Western Kentucky	38	38	52.6%	62.2%	-9.6 pp	9.8	-0.12	29	4.7	0.20
W7	Kennesaw State	40	39	71.8%	62.4%	+9.4 pp	6.9	0.26	33	3.6	-0.18
W8	Delaware	35	35	74.3%	62.3%	+11.9 pp	9.1	0.49	23	4.1	0.21
W9	Sam Houston	18	18	66.7%	64.1%	+2.5 pp	8.1	0.65	39	3.0	0.05

*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.

Punting and returns

2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-11-06T12:25:52.746993+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.

Our punts

27 punts · 41.3 gross yards/punt · 38.2 net yards/punt

7 inside the 20 · 1 touchbacks · 0 blocked

Known gross yards: 27/27 punts. Known net yards: 25/27 punts.

Our punt returns

7 returns · 11.7 yards/return · 0 touchdowns

0 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked

Known return yards: 7/7 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.

Recent games

Game	Punts	Gross yd/punt	Net yd/punt	Known net yards
Week 9 · Sam Houston	4	42.3	42.8	4/4
Week 8 · Delaware	2	29.5	18.0	1/2
Week 7 · Kennesaw State	2	39.5	39.5	2/2
Week 6 · Western Kentucky	3	41.7	41.3	3/3
Week 4 · SMU	6	42.3	39.0	5/6

Team style

Rating history