Week 10 · 2026

Missouri State at Florida International

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Missouri State

Window: 2026-10-28 (reported) · 2026-10-20 (reported) · 2026-10-14 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T21:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Henry Belin IV QB 3 games	44.3% 43 / 97 plays	45.5% 5 / 11 plays
Connor Lair RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	45.8% 22 / 48 plays
Ramone Green Jr. RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	47.6% 10 / 21 plays
King Davis RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	25.0% 1 / 4 plays
Jmariyae Robinson WR 1 games	0.0% 0 / 1 plays	— 0 / 0 plays
Jambres Dubar RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 59 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Amar'e Johnson · RB

CFBD athlete 5327017

rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 37
rushing · YPC: 5.3

Amare Whetsell · WR

CFBD athlete 5296451

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Andrew Kallas · LS

CFBD athlete 5296447

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Anthony Mattison · S

CFBD athlete 5383066

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 27

Antonio Smith · S

CFBD athlete 4871012

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Austin Yelder · LB

CFBD athlete 5084579

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Blessing Igbinedion · DE

CFBD athlete 5383074

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Brandon Hightower · DL

CFBD athlete 5327016

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Brendon McQueen · WR

CFBD athlete 5227770

receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 8
receiving · YPR: 8.0

Breylon McCuller · DE

CFBD athlete 5296453

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Brycen Dorsey · WR

CFBD athlete 5296450

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Caden Wiest · DE

CFBD athlete 5154288

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11
kickReturns · AVG: 13.0
kickReturns · LONG: 13
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 13

Caleb Olabode · LB

CFBD athlete 5296443

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 13

Camron Williams · CB

CFBD athlete 5227768

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Christian Ford · S

CFBD athlete 5077225

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 27
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 43

Connor Lair · RB

CFBD athlete 5085729

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 76
receiving · YPR: 8.4
rushing · CAR: 65
rushing · LONG: 29
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 258
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Cooper Roy · LB

CFBD athlete 5154287

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Devin Rutherford · S

CFBD athlete 5227776

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

Devin Staley · WR

CFBD athlete 5383067

puntReturns · AVG: 26.0
puntReturns · LONG: 26
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 26

Dillon Hipp · TE

CFBD athlete 5128052

receiving · LONG: 47
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 122
receiving · YPR: 9.4

Dylan Brooks · DE

CFBD athlete 4431508

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Elijah Leonard · QB

CFBD athlete 5227766

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 7
passing · YPA: 7.0

Gilles Tchio · DL

CFBD athlete 5097850

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 17

Gionni McBride · CB

CFBD athlete 5296442

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Grayson Cutchlow · DE

CFBD athlete 5218805

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Henry Belin IV · QB

CFBD athlete 4685252

fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 126
passing · COMPLETIONS: 85
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.675
passing · TD: 8
passing · YDS: 1071
passing · YPA: 8.5
rushing · CAR: 22
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 43
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Isaiah McMorris · WR

CFBD athlete 5146723

kickReturns · AVG: 16.0
kickReturns · LONG: 16
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 16
receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 25
receiving · YPR: 6.3

Isaiah Myers · WR

CFBD athlete 5219476

receiving · LONG: 72
receiving · REC: 41
receiving · TD: 8
receiving · YDS: 873
receiving · YPR: 21.3
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 24
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 30
rushing · YPC: 15.0

J.J. O'Neal · S

CFBD athlete 5085725

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 29
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 46
interceptions · AVG: 47.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 47

Jalile Elliott · DE

CFBD athlete 5383064

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Jambres Dubar · RB

CFBD athlete 5077390

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 2.3
rushing · CAR: 43
rushing · LONG: 49
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 228
rushing · YPC: 5.3

James Rexroat · TE

CFBD athlete 5221049

receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 5
receiving · YPR: 5.0

Jared Lloyd · LB

CFBD athlete 5085721

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 38
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 86
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 4
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 4
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Jashawn Cooper · LB

CFBD athlete 5227772

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 34
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Jeron Askren · TE

CFBD athlete 5227784

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 25
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 82
receiving · YPR: 6.8

Jerrick Martin · S

CFBD athlete 5327262

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jmariyae Robinson · WR

CFBD athlete 4837193

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 19.3
kickReturns · LONG: 35
kickReturns · NO: 8
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 154
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 3
passing · YPA: 3.0
puntReturns · AVG: 7.1
puntReturns · LONG: 22
puntReturns · NO: 7
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 50
receiving · LONG: 47
receiving · REC: 44
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 398
receiving · YPR: 9.0
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 18
rushing · YPC: 6.0

Joel Boamah · CB

CFBD athlete 5077283

defensive · PD: 6
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 25
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 33
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 60.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 60

Joel Kpassou · CB

CFBD athlete 5298158

defensive · PD: 8
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 27
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 33

Joshua Davis · DL

CFBD athlete 5383075

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Joshua Lukusa · DE

CFBD athlete 4893420

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 12

Kaden Jones · DL

CFBD athlete 5383070

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Kellen Lindstrom · DE

CFBD athlete 5130606

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 9

Khalil Anderson · S

CFBD athlete 4683716

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

King Davis · RB

CFBD athlete 5164337

receiving · LONG: 3
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 3
receiving · YPR: 3.0
rushing · CAR: 15
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 49
rushing · YPC: 3.3

Makai Cope · WR

CFBD athlete 4602895

receiving · LONG: 15
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 23
receiving · YPR: 7.7

Malik Ganaway · CB

CFBD athlete 5081386

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 19

Markell Chapman · DL

CFBD athlete 5296217

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Martavis Blackmon · LB

CFBD athlete 5296437

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 26
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2

Matthew Greene · OL

CFBD athlete 5122064

receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: -1
receiving · YPR: -1.0

Mekhi Miller · WR

CFBD athlete 4712886

kickReturns · AVG: 1.0
kickReturns · LONG: 1
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 1
receiving · LONG: 42
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 146
receiving · YPR: 11.2

Michael Osei-Bonsu · TE

CFBD athlete 5383072

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6
receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 7
receiving · YPR: 7.0

Ramone Green Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 5154284

kickReturns · AVG: 22.0
kickReturns · LONG: 22
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 22
receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 37
receiving · YPR: 4.6
rushing · CAR: 67
rushing · LONG: 19
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 272
rushing · YPC: 4.1

Skyler Locklear · QB

CFBD athlete 5083042

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 108
passing · COMPLETIONS: 71
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.657
passing · TD: 4
passing · YDS: 788
passing · YPA: 7.3
rushing · CAR: 33
rushing · LONG: 48
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 107
rushing · YPC: 3.2

Stewart McDonald · P

CFBD athlete 5227774

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kicking · FGA: 1
kicking · FGM: 0
kicking · LONG: 0
kicking · PCT: 0.000
kicking · PTS: 6
kicking · XPA: 7
kicking · XPM: 6
punting · In 20: 9
punting · LONG: 57
punting · NO: 27
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 1116
punting · YPP: 41.3

Stratton Shufelt · LB

CFBD athlete 5147152

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 16
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Tim Brantley Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 5154294

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 24

Witt Edwards · TE

CFBD athlete 5147337

receiving · LONG: 38
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 56
receiving · YPR: 28.0

Yousef Obeid · PK

CFBD athlete 5155163

kicking · FGA: 12
kicking · FGM: 9
kicking · LONG: 35
kicking · PCT: 0.750
kicking · PTS: 41
kicking · XPA: 14
kicking · XPM: 14

Florida International

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-20 (reported) · 2026-10-14 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T21:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
J.J. Kohl QB 3 games	39.0% 39 / 100 plays	0.0% 0 / 10 plays
Devonte Lyons RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	54.8% 23 / 42 plays
Anthony Carrie RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	30.0% 3 / 10 plays
Zach Marker QB 2 games	25.0% 1 / 4 plays	50.0% 1 / 2 plays
Sterling Joseph RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 2 / 4 plays
Jayden Ford RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	75.0% 3 / 4 plays
Maguire Anderson WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 2 / 2 plays
Kyle Mcneal WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 55 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Andre Brown · WR

CFBD athlete 5230757

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 20.9
kickReturns · LONG: 54
kickReturns · NO: 9
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 188

Anthony Carrie · RB

CFBD athlete 5079372

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 68
receiving · YPR: 6.8
rushing · CAR: 82
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 258
rushing · YPC: 3.1

Anthony Cunningham Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 4921430

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Anthony Smith · DL

CFBD athlete 5141690

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Brayshawn Littlejohn · LB

CFBD athlete 5085038

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 28

Cam Davis · LB

CFBD athlete 5252261

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Deandre Arnold · LB

CFBD athlete 5271231

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Deandre Boykins · DB

CFBD athlete 4431195

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 25
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 45
interceptions · AVG: 1.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 12.0
kickReturns · LONG: 12
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 12
puntReturns · AVG: 4.0
puntReturns · LONG: 4
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 4

DeeJay Holmes Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 5083313

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 5
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6
defensive · TOT: 14
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Demetrius Hill · DB

CFBD athlete 4682504

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 32
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Devonte Lyons · RB

CFBD athlete 5146722

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 95
receiving · YPR: 9.5
rushing · CAR: 94
rushing · LONG: 23
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 435
rushing · YPC: 4.6

Dominic Turnbull · DB

CFBD athlete 5161914

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Elijah Simmons · DL

CFBD athlete 5296253

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 5

Elisha Baldridge · DL

CFBD athlete 5382716

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 9.0
defensive · TOT: 30

Eric Johnson · DB

CFBD athlete 5279195

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Eric Nelson · WR

CFBD athlete 5125595

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 162
receiving · YPR: 13.5

Felix Visser · P

CFBD athlete 5382709

punting · In 20: 8
punting · LONG: 55
punting · NO: 25
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 944
punting · YPP: 37.8

Germaine Carter · DL

CFBD athlete 5143170

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 9
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Greg Gaines III · WR

CFBD athlete 4685356

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 30
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 124
receiving · YPR: 13.8

J.J. Kohl · QB

CFBD athlete 4870883

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 255
passing · COMPLETIONS: 152
passing · INT: 9
passing · PCT: 0.596
passing · TD: 11
passing · YDS: 1801
passing · YPA: 7.1
receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 19
receiving · YPR: 19.0
rushing · CAR: 40
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 22
rushing · YPC: 0.6

JaCorey Stewart · LB

CFBD athlete 5147045

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 26

Jackson Verdugo · TE

CFBD athlete 5236210

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 2
passing · YPA: 2.0
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 82
receiving · YPR: 9.1

Jaeden McMillan · DB

CFBD athlete 5245066

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0

Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine · DB

CFBD athlete 4911903

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 29
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -10
rushing · YPC: -10.0

James Resar · TE

CFBD athlete 5079684

receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 18
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 174
receiving · YPR: 9.7
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 17
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 21
rushing · YPC: 10.5

Jayden Ford · RB

CFBD athlete 5172097

kickReturns · AVG: 21.0
kickReturns · LONG: 24
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 42
receiving · LONG: 5
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 5
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 27
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 54
rushing · YPC: 7.7

JoJo Stone · WR

CFBD athlete 5218988

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 19
passing · YPA: 19.0
receiving · LONG: 68
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 190
receiving · YPR: 12.7
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 4
rushing · YPC: 1.3

Josiah Taylor · LB

CFBD athlete 5148942

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 28
interceptions · AVG: 7.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 7

Justin Wood · LS

CFBD athlete 5168311

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kani Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 5264369

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kenton Simmons · DL

CFBD athlete 5295586

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 4
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7
defensive · TOT: 19

Kevin Schaeffer · TE

CFBD athlete 4698120

receiving · LONG: 1
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 1
receiving · YPR: 1.0

Kyle Mcneal · WR

CFBD athlete 5121664

interceptions · AVG: 24.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 24
receiving · LONG: 49
receiving · REC: 22
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 233
receiving · YPR: 10.6
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 0
rushing · YPC: 0.0

Kyrie Samuel · DL

CFBD athlete 5082436

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 2

Lamont Green Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 4870771

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Lawrence Johnson · DB

CFBD athlete 5149492

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 11

Maguire Anderson · WR

CFBD athlete 4879999

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 7.0
kickReturns · LONG: 7
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 7
puntReturns · AVG: 6.8
puntReturns · LONG: 13
puntReturns · NO: 12
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 81
receiving · LONG: 50
receiving · REC: 41
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 597
receiving · YPR: 14.6
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 9
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 20
rushing · YPC: 6.7

Myles Cunningham · DB

CFBD athlete 5225388

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Nate Henry · RB

CFBD athlete 5158414

rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 15
rushing · YPC: 7.5

Nathan Jennings · DL

CFBD athlete 5155696

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 8

Nick Watson · DL

CFBD athlete 5158422

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Orlando Syph-Timmons · LB

CFBD athlete 5158420

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Ormond Wallace · DB

CFBD athlete 5295587

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Percy Courtney Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 4917298

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 28

RJ Moss Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 5160223

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 12

Robert Czeremcha · PK

CFBD athlete 5230751

kicking · FGA: 19
kicking · FGM: 13
kicking · LONG: 52
kicking · PCT: 0.684
kicking · PTS: 51
kicking · XPA: 13
kicking · XPM: 12

Robert Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 5151294

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 1

Ryan Gadson · DB

CFBD athlete 5225802

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 22
puntReturns · AVG: 7.0
puntReturns · LONG: 7
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 7

Shamir Sterlin · DB

CFBD athlete 5196863

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 23
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Sterling Joseph · RB

CFBD athlete 5164324

receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 22
receiving · YPR: 7.3
rushing · CAR: 23
rushing · LONG: 15
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 88
rushing · YPC: 3.8

Tyderick Brown · DB

CFBD athlete 5197101

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tyson Carter · WR

CFBD athlete 5222534

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 48
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 153
receiving · YPR: 17.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 2
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 2
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Vontae Floyd · DB

CFBD athlete 5218789

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 15

Wesley Miller · DB

CFBD athlete 4808718

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 37
interceptions · AVG: 20.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 20

Zach Marker · QB

CFBD athlete 5153845

passing · ATT: 15
passing · COMPLETIONS: 8
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.533
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 109
passing · YPA: 7.3
rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 15
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Florida International -4.75

EPA-OLS history for 7-14 point gaps: 46% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 97 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

CFBD median

DraftKings snapshot: Florida International -4.5

Book quote differs from the comparison line.

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Florida International by 12.82

8.07 points toward Florida International versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Florida International.

Net EPA rating difference: +8.82
Fitted offset: +5.20
Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to 12.82 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs 8d0d0b56c6590b7d9d89f54392abfb04973d8997dbcd17039306fca7ec4fd671 · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 0db304293e5c1e118b8d84a29701026abe440d4e22b2bcb57cf5ee43ba99ec8a · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Florida International · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	-4.75	-4.75
Model spread	-12.82	-12.82
Model gap	+8.07	+8.07

Negative spreads favor Florida International; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 8d0d0b56c6590b7d9d89f54392abfb04973d8997dbcd17039306fca7ec4fd671. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Florida International -4.75

Model gap +8.1 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Florida International.

Win probabilities · separate sources

Florida International win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 64%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Florida International -5
Stacked ensemble: 76%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Florida International.

away elo: +17.41 (path difference 9.44)
home adjusted epa: +9.77 (path difference 5.67)
home elo: -9.36 (path difference 2.77)
away adjusted success allowed: +8.93 (path difference 3.74)
home adjusted rushing epa: -6.43 (path difference 0.74)
away adjusted epa: +6.10 (path difference 2.24)
away adjusted epa allowed: +5.79 (path difference 0.99)
home adjusted second level yards: +5.53 (path difference 0.26)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +4.88 (path difference 1.49)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +4.58 (path difference 2.54)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +3.99 (path difference 0.90)
home adjusted epa allowed: -3.80 (path difference 1.30)
away adjusted rushing epa: -3.53 (path difference 0.23)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +3.53 (path difference 3.85)
home adjusted line yards: -3.35 (path difference 0.85)
home adjusted passing epa: -3.11 (path difference 2.05)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.52 (path difference 0.18)
home adjusted open field yards: -2.52 (path difference 1.64)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: +2.46 (path difference 2.16)
away adjusted passing down success: -2.16 (path difference 2.22)
away adjusted second level yards: +1.97 (path difference 0.34)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: -1.95 (path difference 0.51)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.91 (path difference 0.68)
home talent: +1.64 (path difference 1.22)
home adjusted success: -1.49 (path difference 1.52)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -1.32 (path difference 0.17)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.05 (path difference 0.93)
week: -1.04 (path difference 0.56)
away talent: +0.95 (path difference 1.09)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.77 (path difference 0.37)
home adjusted passing down success: +0.66 (path difference 0.33)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.61 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted explosiveness: +0.61 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted success allowed: +0.59 (path difference 0.23)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.52 (path difference 0.31)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: +0.47 (path difference 0.08)
away adjusted line yards allowed: -0.44 (path difference 1.95)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: -0.43 (path difference 0.77)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.36 (path difference 1.98)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.28 (path difference 0.05)
away adjusted standard down success: +0.27 (path difference 0.44)
home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.26 (path difference 0.39)
home adjusted standard down success: -0.24 (path difference 2.04)
away adjusted success: -0.20 (path difference 0.08)
away adjusted open field yards: -0.18 (path difference 2.18)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.14 (path difference 0.02)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.12 (path difference 0.40)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.12 (path difference 0.00)
away adjusted line yards: +0.08 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.04 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted explosiveness: -0.03 (path difference 0.00)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.03 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.02 (path difference 1.19)
home conference: 0.00 (path difference 0.00)
away conference: 0.00 (path difference 0.00)

Reconciles to 76.45 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs d082e04356ea9cddec82a3a5884120ca33bf86472fcd69bec184531a24d36b1b · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast b165a8b0e250a3e9c5165b2940eaec8406cb99cbc5c6c3b67d4c7c3a97be7a71 · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Missouri State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 90 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Connor Lair CFBD athlete 5085729 Week 7 vs Kennesaw State: 14 attempts · 4.6 YPC · 42.9% success · -0.442 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Delaware: 15 attempts · 5.7 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.445 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Sam Houston: 19 attempts · 3.9 YPC · 31.6% success · 0.158 raw PPA.	48	4.7	0	53.3%	65 / 4.0
Ramone Green Jr. CFBD athlete 5154284 Week 7 vs Kennesaw State: 5 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.210 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Delaware: 6 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.298 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Sam Houston: 10 attempts · 2.6 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.223 raw PPA.	21	3.0	0	23.3%	66 / 4.0
Henry Belin IV CFBD athlete 4685252 Week 7 vs Kennesaw State: 9 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 37.5% success · 0.091 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Delaware: 2 attempts · -5.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.189 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Sam Houston: 5 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.580 raw PPA.	16	1.8	5	17.8%	21 / 1.5
King Davis CFBD athlete 5164337 Week 7 vs Kennesaw State: 3 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.370 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Sam Houston: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.239 raw PPA.	4	4.5	0	4.4%	14 / 3.1
Jambres Dubar CFBD athlete 5077390 Week 9 vs Sam Houston: 1 attempts · -5.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -2.161 raw PPA.	1	-5.0	0	1.1%	39 / 5.1

Florida International

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 81 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Devonte Lyons CFBD athlete 5146722 Week 7 vs Jacksonville State: 14 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 64.3% success · 0.202 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Middle Tennessee: 18 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 55.6% success · 0.236 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Liberty: 10 attempts · 5.2 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.157 raw PPA.	42	5.2	0	51.9%	90 / 4.7
J.J. Kohl CFBD athlete 4870883 Week 7 vs Jacksonville State: 5 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.035 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Middle Tennessee: 4 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -1.335 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Liberty: 6 attempts · -6.7 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.830 raw PPA.	15	-1.1	5	18.5%	38 / 0.6
Anthony Carrie CFBD athlete 5079372 Week 7 vs Jacksonville State: 10 attempts · 2.6 YPC · 30.0% success · -0.310 raw PPA.	10	2.6	0	12.3%	82 / 3.0
Sterling Joseph CFBD athlete 5164324 Week 8 vs Middle Tennessee: 3 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.045 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Liberty: 1 attempts · 8.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.903 raw PPA.	4	5.0	0	4.9%	24 / 3.8
Jayden Ford CFBD athlete 5172097 Week 8 vs Middle Tennessee: 2 attempts · 13.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.585 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Liberty: 2 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.108 raw PPA.	4	10.3	0	4.9%	7 / 7.7

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	Florida InternationalOffense	Missouri StateDefense	Missouri StateOffense	Florida InternationalDefense
PPA/play	+0.01 13th	+0.23 9th	+0.09 34th	+0.06 57th
Success rate	39.7% 23rd	48.1% 4th	40.7% 31st	40.4% 53rd
Explosiveness	1.13 12th	1.14 82nd	1.27 66th	1.16 74th
Standard-down PPA/play	-0.02 17th	+0.18 8th	+0.03 31st	-0.00 62nd
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.07 15th	+0.35 13th	+0.22 47th	+0.18 53rd
Havoc allowed / created	14.9% 48th	14.7% 33rd	17.0% 21st	15.7% 50th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:31 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:31 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Yousef Obeid · Missouri State · PAAR -2.28 · 12 attempts
Stewart McDonald · Missouri State · PAAR -1.97 · 1 attempts
Robert Czeremcha · Florida International · PAAR -1.18 · 19 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Florida International spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: -4.5 · Snapshot spread: -4.5

First locally observed: -4 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence