Week 9 · 2026

Southern Miss at UL Monroe

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Southern Miss

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-07 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Landy Lyddy QB 3 games	33.3% 38 / 114 plays	50.0% 6 / 12 plays
Steven Robinson RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	46.9% 23 / 49 plays
Jamarice Wilder RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	60.9% 14 / 23 plays
Robert Briggs RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 1 / 2 plays
MJ Johnson WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays
Mario Sanders II WR 1 games	100.0% 1 / 1 plays	— 0 / 0 plays
Eelijah Singleton WR 1 games	0.0% 0 / 1 plays	— 0 / 0 plays

Traditional season production · 65 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

A'mari Wilson · DL

CFBD athlete 5229547

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 14

A.J. Little · WR

CFBD athlete 5153318

puntReturns · AVG: 8.0
puntReturns · LONG: 23
puntReturns · NO: 3
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 24
receiving · LONG: 75
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 271
receiving · YPR: 15.9

Aidan Horne · S

CFBD athlete 5394606

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Andrew Martin · LB

CFBD athlete 5161172

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Avery Sledge · LB

CFBD athlete 4878440

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 12

BJ Mitchell · LB

CFBD athlete 5394609

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 3

Baron Taylor · DB

CFBD athlete 5224416

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Broderick Peters · TE

CFBD athlete 5274304

receiving · LONG: 33
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 63
receiving · YPR: 12.6

Cannon McClain · DB

CFBD athlete 5166748

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Chauncey Davis Jr. · S

CFBD athlete 5394600

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Creighton Wilbanks · PK

CFBD athlete 5254183

kicking · FGA: 7
kicking · FGM: 2
kicking · LONG: 47
kicking · PCT: 0.286
kicking · PTS: 28
kicking · XPA: 22
kicking · XPM: 22

Darrell Gross · DL

CFBD athlete 5394619

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Davis Dalton · WR

CFBD athlete 4869802

receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 110
receiving · YPR: 13.8

Dusty Zimmer · P

CFBD athlete 5394605

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 12
passing · YPA: 12.0
punting · In 20: 8
punting · LONG: 57
punting · NO: 32
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 1253
punting · YPP: 39.2

Eelijah Singleton · WR

CFBD athlete 5394591

passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 27
passing · YPA: 13.5
puntReturns · AVG: -1.0
puntReturns · LONG: 0
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: -1
receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 17
receiving · YPR: 5.7

Ethan Hampton · QB

CFBD athlete 4618083

passing · ATT: 75
passing · COMPLETIONS: 45
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.600
passing · TD: 2
passing · YDS: 419
passing · YPA: 5.6
rushing · CAR: 8
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 13
rushing · YPC: 1.6

Grant Page · WR

CFBD athlete 4702560

receiving · LONG: 33
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 52
receiving · YPR: 10.4

Hiroshi Carr · DB

CFBD athlete 5223122

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ishmael Ibraheem · CB

CFBD athlete 4431552

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 1

JR Stegall · DL

CFBD athlete 5226942

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 20

Jamarice Wilder · RB

CFBD athlete 5156440

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 21
receiving · YPR: 4.2
rushing · CAR: 57
rushing · LONG: 30
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 372
rushing · YPC: 6.5

Jameer Lewis · DL

CFBD athlete 5220369

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 4.0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Jaylen Foster · RB

CFBD athlete 5125171

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 10
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 31
rushing · YPC: 5.2

Jaylen Himes · WR

CFBD athlete 5394595

receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 42
receiving · YPR: 7.0

Jeffery Rush · DL

CFBD athlete 5079707

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Jeremiah Beck Jr. · TE

CFBD athlete 5293671

receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 67
receiving · YPR: 7.4

Jeremiah Dillon · CB

CFBD athlete 4872720

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

John White · QB

CFBD athlete 5079628

passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 7
rushing · YPC: 3.5

Jonah Martinez · DB

CFBD athlete 5296126

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Josh Johnson · DL

CFBD athlete 5155211

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10

Jyaire Brown · DB

CFBD athlete 4685294

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 19

KJ Washington · DL

CFBD athlete 5394608

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Kaden Saunders · WR

CFBD athlete 4685510

puntReturns · AVG: 8.0
puntReturns · LONG: 26
puntReturns · NO: 4
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 32
receiving · LONG: 38
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 197
receiving · YPR: 13.1

Kam'ron Hoyte · DL

CFBD athlete 5394622

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Kameron Cyprien · DL

CFBD athlete 5394594

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 28

Kelby Hampton · DB

CFBD athlete 5298496

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Kobi Albert · DB

CFBD athlete 5081081

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 22
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 1.0
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 3

Kolby Peavy · DB

CFBD athlete 5159910

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 0

Landon Sylvie · DB

CFBD athlete 5225751

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 44
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Landy Lyddy · QB

CFBD athlete 4833635

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 171
passing · COMPLETIONS: 101
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.591
passing · TD: 7
passing · YDS: 1196
passing · YPA: 7.0
rushing · CAR: 30
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 5
rushing · YPC: 0.2

Laquan Robinson · DB

CFBD athlete 5219022

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 27

Luke Beard · LS

CFBD athlete 5152215

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

MJ Johnson · WR

CFBD athlete 5151526

kickReturns · AVG: 19.4
kickReturns · LONG: 35
kickReturns · NO: 8
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 155
receiving · LONG: 43
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 145
receiving · YPR: 13.2
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 19
rushing · YPC: 9.5

MaLik Caswell · S

CFBD athlete 5156111

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 8

Malakai Murphy · CB

CFBD athlete 5212939

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 20

Mario Sanders II · WR

CFBD athlete 5218891

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 75
passing · YPA: 75.0
receiving · LONG: 56
receiving · REC: 40
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 569
receiving · YPR: 14.2

Marrio Williams Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5394603

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Mathis Haygood · LB

CFBD athlete 5163074

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 25
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 63

Melvin Spriggs · LB

CFBD athlete 5157335

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 12

Mike Steven Robinson III · DB

CFBD athlete 5159277

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 63

Nasim Cairo · DL

CFBD athlete 5083800

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 20

Preston Kilgore · TE

CFBD athlete 5161233

receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 75
receiving · YPR: 7.5

Ramon Pernas · DL

CFBD athlete 5230722

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 17

Reed Harradine · PK

CFBD athlete 5159920

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Robert Briggs · RB

CFBD athlete 4869552

rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 44
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 66
rushing · YPC: 16.5

Robert Henderson · RB

CFBD athlete 5296029

rushing · CAR: 6
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 16
rushing · YPC: 2.7

Ronald Lewis · DB

CFBD athlete 4868341

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 19

Sammy Anderson · DB

CFBD athlete 4430909

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Steven Robinson · RB

CFBD athlete 5394596

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 100
receiving · YPR: 6.7
rushing · CAR: 121
rushing · LONG: 39
rushing · TD: 8
rushing · YDS: 577
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Talik Parkman · DL

CFBD athlete 5329998

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tyler Lassiter · LB

CFBD athlete 5394592

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Wesley Edison · LB

CFBD athlete 5394604

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 24
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 47

Will Smith · DL

CFBD athlete 5127936

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 11

Xavier McIver · DL

CFBD athlete 4433861

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Zachariah Keith · DL

CFBD athlete 4870777

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 11

UL Monroe

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Aidan Armenta QB 3 games	47.2% 42 / 89 plays	35.7% 5 / 14 plays
Austin Carlisle QB 2 games	20.0% 3 / 15 plays	16.7% 1 / 6 plays
Zachary Palmer-Smith RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	44.4% 8 / 18 plays
CJ Phillip RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	38.5% 5 / 13 plays
Donald Chaney Jr. RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	55.6% 5 / 9 plays
Bryson Roland RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	16.7% 1 / 6 plays
JP Coulter WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	66.7% 2 / 3 plays
Marcellus Jackson WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 1 / 3 plays

Traditional season production · 61 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Abram Murray · PK

CFBD athlete 5085351

kicking · FGA: 9
kicking · FGM: 6
kicking · LONG: 52
kicking · PCT: 0.667
kicking · PTS: 31
kicking · XPA: 14
kicking · XPM: 13

Aidan Armenta · QB

CFBD athlete 5122054

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 153
passing · COMPLETIONS: 95
passing · INT: 3
passing · PCT: 0.621
passing · TD: 7
passing · YDS: 1114
passing · YPA: 7.3
rushing · CAR: 32
rushing · LONG: 12
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 40
rushing · YPC: 1.3

Ameyr Adams · DB

CFBD athlete 5194796

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Armoni Rue · DB

CFBD athlete 5297103

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 20
interceptions · AVG: -1.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: -1

Austin Carlisle · QB

CFBD athlete 5207934

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 67
passing · COMPLETIONS: 42
passing · INT: 3
passing · PCT: 0.627
passing · TD: 3
passing · YDS: 360
passing · YPA: 5.4
rushing · CAR: 44
rushing · LONG: 27
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 237
rushing · YPC: 5.4

Billy Pullen · LB

CFBD athlete 5220218

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 18
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Brandon Buckhaulter · WR

CFBD athlete 4431516

kickReturns · AVG: 19.0
kickReturns · LONG: 19
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 19
puntReturns · AVG: 2.0
puntReturns · LONG: 5
puntReturns · NO: 5
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 10
receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 17
receiving · YPR: 5.7
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Bryce Anderson · TE

CFBD athlete 5295371

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 22
receiving · REC: 19
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 165
receiving · YPR: 8.7

Bryson Roland · RB

CFBD athlete 5382856

receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 20
receiving · YPR: 4.0
rushing · CAR: 43
rushing · LONG: 18
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 150
rushing · YPC: 3.5

CJ Phillip · RB

CFBD athlete 5382854

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 23
rushing · LONG: 19
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 60
rushing · YPC: 2.6

CJ Wilson Jr. · DL

CFBD athlete 5082336

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Cade Callahan · TE

CFBD athlete 5225330

receiving · LONG: 36
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 44
receiving · YPR: 8.8

Carl Fauntroy Jr. · S

CFBD athlete 4912282

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 19
interceptions · AVG: 16.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 16

Chris Payne · S

CFBD athlete 5382848

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 24

Colton Vatne · DL

CFBD athlete 5091813

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 7

DJ Jester · S

CFBD athlete 5382843

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 13
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Darrion Gilliam · WR

CFBD athlete 5447033

receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 39
receiving · YPR: 13.0

Demarcco Blanton · WR

CFBD athlete 5294510

kickReturns · AVG: 20.0
kickReturns · LONG: 24
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 40

Derek Omoregie · DE

CFBD athlete 5087666

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Derrick Jameson · RB

CFBD athlete 5220666

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 4
receiving · LONG: 40
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 67
receiving · YPR: 13.4
rushing · CAR: 23
rushing · LONG: 32
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 122
rushing · YPC: 5.3

Donald Chaney Jr. · RB

CFBD athlete 4685184

rushing · CAR: 9
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 21
rushing · YPC: 2.3

Ethan Bailey · DL

CFBD athlete 5258043

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

Fred Clark · LB

CFBD athlete 5236387

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Gavin Howard · DB

CFBD athlete 5199848

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

JP Coulter · WR

CFBD athlete 5295735

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 48
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 185
receiving · YPR: 10.9
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 7
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 21
rushing · YPC: 5.3

Jabari Tiller · DB

CFBD athlete 5295736

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 29

Jaeden Calender · LB

CFBD athlete 5220244

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 16

Jaiden Tucker · WR

CFBD athlete 5274368

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 52
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 52
receiving · YPR: 52.0

James Smith · DL

CFBD athlete 5091526

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 12

Jason Hoath Jr. · TE

CFBD athlete 5153517

receiving · LONG: 1
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 1
receiving · YPR: 1.0

Jay Harper · DB

CFBD athlete 5147172

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 15
kickReturns · AVG: 16.5
kickReturns · LONG: 20
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 33

Jayden Lewis · DB

CFBD athlete 5327625

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Jonathan Crain · DB

CFBD athlete 5382858

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Kelbee Holmes · LB

CFBD athlete 5220221

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Kevontay Wells · DL

CFBD athlete 5220227

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 3.0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.0
defensive · TOT: 23

Korian Wilson · DB

CFBD athlete 5220216

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

LT Robinson · WR

CFBD athlete 5382841

receiving · LONG: 75
receiving · REC: 14
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 198
receiving · YPR: 14.1
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -1
rushing · YPC: -1.0

LaZavier Amos · LB

CFBD athlete 5382853

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 3

Landon Graves · QB

CFBD athlete 5158127

passing · ATT: 3
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 3
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 3
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Larell Howling · S

CFBD athlete 5295751

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Le'Kell Mc'Gowan · LB

CFBD athlete 5168301

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Levontae Jacobs · DL

CFBD athlete 4713071

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Makenzie Ryan · P

CFBD athlete 5220241

punting · In 20: 7
punting · LONG: 57
punting · NO: 42
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 1738
punting · YPP: 41.4

Marcellus Jackson · WR

CFBD athlete 5382869

kickReturns · AVG: 15.0
kickReturns · LONG: 15
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 15
receiving · LONG: 44
receiving · REC: 32
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 265
receiving · YPR: 8.3
rushing · CAR: 8
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 25
rushing · YPC: 3.1

Marcus Ross · LB

CFBD athlete 5218821

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 41

Marvin Hall · DE

CFBD athlete 5382873

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Moses Madubuike · DE

CFBD athlete 5382855

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 14

Nic Trujillo · WR

CFBD athlete 5122072

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
puntReturns · AVG: 2.5
puntReturns · LONG: 6
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 5
receiving · LONG: 47
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 184
receiving · YPR: 14.2

Noah Flemmings · LB

CFBD athlete 5295734

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 62
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Nolan Wilson · LS

CFBD athlete 5089880

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Parker Fulghum · WR

CFBD athlete 5218754

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 31
receiving · REC: 15
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 207
receiving · YPR: 13.8

RJ Hall · DB

CFBD athlete 5382846

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Rickey Banks · LB

CFBD athlete 5382842

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 16

TJ Williams · LB

CFBD athlete 5382845

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 15

Taijh Overton · S

CFBD athlete 5222256

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 36

Trevon Kinchen · RB

CFBD athlete 5382857

rushing · CAR: 9
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 25
rushing · YPC: 2.8

Tyrell Brown · DL

CFBD athlete 5447032

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 17

Willie Wilson · DB

CFBD athlete 5162019

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Zachary Palmer-Smith · RB

CFBD athlete 5097058

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 17
receiving · YPR: 8.5
rushing · CAR: 26
rushing · LONG: 31
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 125
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Zy Jackson · DB

CFBD athlete 5295738

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 26
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: -2.0
puntReturns · LONG: 0
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: -2

Zyan Tremont · DL

CFBD athlete 5382870

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 15

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

UL Monroe +3.5

EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

Comparison line · CFBD median

Southern Miss -3.5

DraftKings snapshot: UL Monroe +3.5

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

UL Monroe by 2.59

6.09 points toward UL Monroe versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward UL Monroe.

Fitted offset: +5.87
Fitted home field: -1.93
Net EPA rating difference: -1.35

Reconciles to 2.59 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 00dc5ed5437dd6b3557f9e66eed06366f466d9fd8e9837b101756e612b464ee0 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 6674d88bee1f4142c39c77027d8b80ba42accde61c24768d74ac7b9e3daba445 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: UL Monroe · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	+3.5	+3.5
Model spread	-2.59	-2.59
Model gap	+6.09	+6.09

Negative spreads favor UL Monroe; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 00dc5ed5437dd6b3557f9e66eed06366f466d9fd8e9837b101756e612b464ee0. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

UL Monroe +3.5

Model gap +6.1 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor UL Monroe.

Win probabilities · separate sources

UL Monroe win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 41%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: UL Monroe +3.5
Stacked ensemble: 49%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward UL Monroe.

home elo: -28.05 (path difference 0.36)
away elo: +19.84 (path difference 4.71)
home adjusted epa: +13.14 (path difference 1.03)
away adjusted epa: +9.06 (path difference 0.16)
away adjusted success allowed: +9.01 (path difference 1.55)
home adjusted second level yards: +6.13 (path difference 1.40)
home adjusted success: -5.79 (path difference 4.32)
away adjusted passing down success: -5.47 (path difference 2.73)
home adjusted rushing epa: -5.10 (path difference 0.20)
home adjusted success allowed: -3.97 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted line yards: -3.13 (path difference 0.37)
home adjusted passing epa: -3.10 (path difference 1.04)
away adjusted success: +2.95 (path difference 1.22)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -2.76 (path difference 0.53)
away adjusted line yards: -2.55 (path difference 0.91)
home adjusted passing down success: +2.48 (path difference 0.88)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -2.09 (path difference 2.27)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.90 (path difference 0.72)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.72 (path difference 1.46)
away adjusted epa allowed: +1.59 (path difference 1.77)
away adjusted explosiveness: +1.54 (path difference 0.41)
home adjusted epa allowed: +1.51 (path difference 3.17)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: -1.41 (path difference 1.72)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: +1.37 (path difference 1.50)
home adjusted open field yards: -1.33 (path difference 1.57)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.27 (path difference 1.34)
away adjusted passing epa: +1.04 (path difference 0.38)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.99 (path difference 0.03)
away adjusted standard down success: +0.97 (path difference 0.45)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.91 (path difference 0.47)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.88 (path difference 0.45)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.80 (path difference 0.27)
away adjusted second level yards: +0.75 (path difference 0.31)
home adjusted standard down success: +0.63 (path difference 0.45)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.61 (path difference 0.08)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.61 (path difference 0.77)
away conference: +0.59 (path difference 1.27)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.59 (path difference 0.06)
away talent: -0.51 (path difference 0.04)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.50 (path difference 0.03)
home adjusted explosiveness: -0.48 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.46 (path difference 0.79)
week: -0.45 (path difference 1.86)
home conference: +0.34 (path difference 0.18)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.34 (path difference 0.42)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.30 (path difference 0.40)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.28 (path difference 0.44)
away adjusted line yards allowed: -0.25 (path difference 0.39)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.23 (path difference 0.11)
home talent: +0.18 (path difference 0.02)
away adjusted rushing epa: +0.17 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.17 (path difference 0.06)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.05 (path difference 0.00)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.04 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.03 (path difference 0.34)

Reconciles to 49.23 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs ae6afeef4148befcf89d399031bd679efde872bc4a8e5ff60940c6da6c3fe345 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast ee2a50b889063c33dcce325d6a08049108d1769e283e36ba64f73ac30a955c68 · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Southern Miss

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 92 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Steven Robinson CFBD athlete 5394596 Week 6 vs Troy: 6 attempts · 4.8 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.396 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Arkansas State: 21 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.111 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Louisiana: 22 attempts · 6.6 YPC · 54.5% success · 0.232 raw PPA.	49	5.3	0	53.3%	121 / 4.8
Jamarice Wilder CFBD athlete 5156440 Week 6 vs Troy: 8 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.098 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Arkansas State: 2 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.019 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Louisiana: 13 attempts · 11.8 YPC · 69.2% success · 0.865 raw PPA.	23	8.3	0	25.0%	56 / 6.6
Landy Lyddy CFBD athlete 4833635 Week 6 vs Troy: 9 attempts · 1.4 YPC · 42.9% success · -0.010 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Arkansas State: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.528 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Louisiana: 7 attempts · -1.3 YPC · 75.0% success · -0.125 raw PPA.	17	0.4	5	18.5%	29 / 0.3
Robert Briggs CFBD athlete 4869552 Week 6 vs Troy: 2 attempts · 22.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 1.673 raw PPA.	2	22.0	0	2.2%	4 / 16.5
MJ Johnson CFBD athlete 5151526 Week 6 vs Troy: 1 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.398 raw PPA.	1	6.0	0	1.1%	2 / 9.5

UL Monroe

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 78 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Zachary Palmer-Smith CFBD athlete 5097058 Week 5 vs South Alabama: 7 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.012 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Louisiana Tech: 1 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.302 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Troy: 10 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.011 raw PPA.	18	3.7	0	23.1%	24 / 3.3
Aidan Armenta CFBD athlete 5122054 Week 5 vs South Alabama: 8 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.152 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Louisiana Tech: 5 attempts · 3.6 YPC · 20.0% success · 0.437 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Troy: 3 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.246 raw PPA.	16	2.3	2	20.5%	29 / 1.3
CJ Phillip CFBD athlete 5382854 Week 5 vs South Alabama: 4 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.163 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Louisiana Tech: 4 attempts · 2.3 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.562 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Troy: 5 attempts · 2.4 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.277 raw PPA.	13	2.4	0	16.7%	23 / 2.9
Donald Chaney Jr. CFBD athlete 4685184 Week 7 vs Louisiana Tech: 4 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.169 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Troy: 5 attempts · 2.2 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.022 raw PPA.	9	2.3	0	11.5%	9 / 2.3
Austin Carlisle CFBD athlete 5207934 Week 7 vs Louisiana Tech: 3 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 0.0% success · -2.707 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Troy: 4 attempts · 1.8 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.120 raw PPA.	7	2.6	1	9.0%	42 / 5.2

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	UL MonroeOffense	Southern MissDefense	Southern MissOffense	UL MonroeDefense
PPA/play	-0.04 6th	+0.15 25th	+0.02 14th	+0.24 8th
Success rate	40.4% 26th	42.9% 28th	42.0% 41st	46.1% 12th
Explosiveness	1.11 9th	1.18 66th	1.20 34th	1.21 56th
Standard-down PPA/play	-0.07 9th	+0.10 26th	+0.05 34th	+0.19 7th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.02 7th	+0.27 27th	-0.05 4th	+0.37 11th
Havoc allowed / created	18.5% 6th	13.4% 18th	14.5% 50th	12.4% 9th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:17 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:17 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Abram Murray · UL Monroe · PAAR -1.64 · 9 attempts
Creighton Wilbanks · Southern Miss · PAAR -9.77 · 7 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

UL Monroe spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +3 · Snapshot spread: +3.5

First locally observed: +3 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence