Week 9 · 2026

Louisiana Tech at South Alabama

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Louisiana Tech

Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Blake Baker QB 3 games	52.4% 55 / 105 plays	52.4% 11 / 21 plays
Andrew Burnette RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	36.4% 20 / 55 plays
Sergio Snider RB 3 games	0.0% 0 / 1 plays	44.4% 4 / 9 plays
Trey Kukuk QB 2 games	0.0% 0 / 2 plays	25.0% 2 / 8 plays
Rayshun Hurt RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 3 / 6 plays
Dylone Brooks RB 1 games	100.0% 1 / 1 plays	33.3% 1 / 3 plays
Marcus Calwise Jr. WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 1 / 3 plays
Talyn Shettron WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 1 / 2 plays

Traditional season production · 68 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Tarvin · DB

CFBD athlete 5382991

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ahkhari Johnson · DB

CFBD athlete 5147383

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 15.0
kickReturns · LONG: 19
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 45

Alonzo Jackson Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5197102

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 6.5
defensive · SOLO: 25
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 12.5
defensive · TOT: 49
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Amari Butler · DB

CFBD athlete 5296384

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Amari Wilks · DL

CFBD athlete 5279679

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Andrew Burnette · RB

CFBD athlete 5296374

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 23
receiving · YPR: 3.3
rushing · CAR: 85
rushing · LONG: 37
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 349
rushing · YPC: 4.1

Ashton Dawson · DL

CFBD athlete 5291633

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ayden Combs · LB

CFBD athlete 5292860

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 10

Blake Baker · QB

CFBD athlete 5150998

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 133
passing · COMPLETIONS: 96
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.722
passing · TD: 10
passing · YDS: 1160
passing · YPA: 8.7
receiving · LONG: 2
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 2
receiving · YPR: 1.0
rushing · CAR: 42
rushing · LONG: 14
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 12
rushing · YPC: 0.3

Brayden Bockler · TE

CFBD athlete 5296401

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 1.8

Cole Watson · LB

CFBD athlete 5151289

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Colton Deckard · LB

CFBD athlete 5091824

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 2

Damien Richard II · DB

CFBD athlete 5302787

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

David Pierro · WR

CFBD athlete 5296382

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
receiving · LONG: 3
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 3
receiving · YPR: 3.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -2
rushing · YPC: -2.0

Daylin Page · DL

CFBD athlete 5296395

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Dedrick Latulas · WR

CFBD athlete 5078549

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 19.3
kickReturns · LONG: 36
kickReturns · NO: 9
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 174
puntReturns · AVG: 13.4
puntReturns · LONG: 58
puntReturns · NO: 9
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 121
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 10
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Demario Bookhart · DB

CFBD athlete 5231369

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Donovan Rieman · DL

CFBD athlete 4911841

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Dylone Brooks · RB

CFBD athlete 5296386

kickReturns · AVG: 0
kickReturns · LONG: 25
kickReturns · NO: 0
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 25
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 19
passing · YPA: 19.0
receiving · LONG: 74
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 108
receiving · YPR: 18.0
rushing · CAR: 19
rushing · LONG: 72
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 175
rushing · YPC: 9.2

Ean Burch · LS

CFBD athlete 5082059

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Eli Finley · TE

CFBD athlete 5121453

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 12.0
kickReturns · LONG: 12
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 12
receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 39
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 462
receiving · YPR: 11.8

Emanual Collins · DB

CFBD athlete 5302783

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Grayson Hardy · LB

CFBD athlete 5302785

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Harrison Williams · RB

CFBD athlete 5382994

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Hayden Christman · OL

CFBD athlete 5091822

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Hunter Rioux · PK

CFBD athlete 5161240

kicking · FGA: 7
kicking · FGM: 3
kicking · LONG: 49
kicking · PCT: 0.429
kicking · PTS: 14
kicking · XPA: 7
kicking · XPM: 5

Jackson Bradley · QB

CFBD athlete 5184630

passing · ATT: 3
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.667
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 3
passing · YPA: 1.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 0
rushing · YPC: 0.0

Jacob Bradford · DL

CFBD athlete 5149829

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 10

Jacoryian Crowe · DB

CFBD athlete 5230765

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jaden Miller · RB

CFBD athlete 5382987

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 19
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 46
rushing · YPC: 2.4

Jadon Mayfield · LB

CFBD athlete 5147150

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 8.0
defensive · TOT: 44
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jalen Mickens · WR

CFBD athlete 5218381

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 75
receiving · REC: 40
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 586
receiving · YPR: 14.7
rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 28
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 70
rushing · YPC: 10.0

Janard Lockhardt · DB

CFBD athlete 5382988

defensive · PD: 8
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 23
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Javari Lockhart · DB

CFBD athlete 5296385

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jay Wilkerson · WR

CFBD athlete 4431484

receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 47
receiving · YPR: 7.8

Jaylon Parnell · LB

CFBD athlete 5141624

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jeremiah Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 5280780

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Johnnie Thiel IV · WR

CFBD athlete 5215238

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Jojo Odom · DL

CFBD athlete 5296393

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 5

Jordan McRae · DB

CFBD athlete 5296381

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 34
interceptions · AVG: 35.3
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 106

Josh Brantley · TE

CFBD athlete 5222150

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 16
passing · YPA: 16.0

Judd Rouyea · DL

CFBD athlete 5159128

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 3

Justice Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 4884299

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 5

Kaden McIver · DL

CFBD athlete 5383001

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kaegan Kent · PK

CFBD athlete 5296391

kicking · FGA: 6
kicking · FGM: 2
kicking · LONG: 25
kicking · PCT: 0.333
kicking · PTS: 24
kicking · XPA: 18
kicking · XPM: 18

Kaleb Coleman · DL

CFBD athlete 5230113

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 16

Kam Franklin · DB

CFBD athlete 4870720

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 21
interceptions · AVG: 33.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 66

Kameron Carter · DB

CFBD athlete 5296377

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7
interceptions · AVG: 22.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 22

Kolbe Fields · LB

CFBD athlete 4611385

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 6
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6.5
defensive · TOT: 44

Lane Condry · DL

CFBD athlete 5296404

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Lexington Matthews · P

CFBD athlete 5166467

punting · In 20: 8
punting · LONG: 67
punting · NO: 22
punting · TB: 3
punting · YDS: 966
punting · YPP: 43.9

Luke Watkins · WR

CFBD athlete 5265463

puntReturns · AVG: 0.0
puntReturns · LONG: 0
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 38
receiving · YPR: 19.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -6
rushing · YPC: -6.0

MJ Moultrie II · DB

CFBD athlete 5299909

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 18

Marcus Calwise Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5224217

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 74
passing · YPA: 74.0
puntReturns · AVG: 40.0
puntReturns · LONG: 66
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 80
receiving · LONG: 30
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 179
receiving · YPR: 11.2
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 56
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 57
rushing · YPC: 19.0

Nathan Green · DB

CFBD athlete 5269141

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Olamide Oguns · DL

CFBD athlete 5083640

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Rayshun Hurt · RB

CFBD athlete 5382992

receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 25
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 11
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 40
rushing · YPC: 3.6

Sam Fongang · DB

CFBD athlete 5296375

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 40

Sergio Snider · RB

CFBD athlete 4919037

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 2
passing · YPA: 2.0
receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 0
receiving · YPR: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 16
rushing · LONG: 24
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 73
rushing · YPC: 4.6

Taeden Rogers · DB

CFBD athlete 5382990

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 32
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: -2.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: -2

Talyn Shettron · WR

CFBD athlete 4685517

receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 231
receiving · YPR: 13.6
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 37
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 46
rushing · YPC: 15.3

Trey Kukuk · QB

CFBD athlete 5296376

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 75
passing · COMPLETIONS: 49
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.653
passing · TD: 3
passing · YDS: 467
passing · YPA: 6.2
rushing · CAR: 42
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 203
rushing · YPC: 4.8

Ty Jones · DB

CFBD athlete 5225413

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10

Will Hutchens · OL

CFBD athlete 5086375

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Za'Qwaun Nunn · DL

CFBD athlete 5282368

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

Zachary Jackson · DB

CFBD athlete 5296390

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Zander Hayes · LB

CFBD athlete 5296389

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Zheric Hill · LB

CFBD athlete 5222250

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.5
defensive · TOT: 41
interceptions · AVG: 25.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 25

South Alabama

Window: 2026-10-20 (reported) · 2026-10-08 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T19:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Jared Hollins QB 3 games	37.5% 24 / 64 plays	53.3% 8 / 15 plays
Keenan Phillips RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	55.3% 26 / 47 plays
PJ Martin RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	37.2% 16 / 43 plays
Trae'von Dunbar RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	54.5% 12 / 22 plays
Caleb Wynn RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	50.0% 1 / 2 plays
Micah Woods WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
Rod Gibbs TE 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 56 players

Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Aleksi Pulkkinen · P

CFBD athlete 5160230

punting · In 20: 9
punting · LONG: 53
punting · NO: 21
punting · TB: 0
punting · YDS: 796
punting · YPP: 37.9

Andrew Hines · DL

CFBD athlete 5301748

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Andrew Washburn · DL

CFBD athlete 5081853

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Anthony Eager · WR

CFBD athlete 5075529

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 69
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 348
receiving · YPR: 26.8

Baxter Turner · LS

CFBD athlete 5160239

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Bishop Davenport · QB

CFBD athlete 4869553

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 59
passing · COMPLETIONS: 40
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.678
passing · TD: 3
passing · YDS: 450
passing · YPA: 7.6
rushing · CAR: 20
rushing · LONG: 27
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 73
rushing · YPC: 3.7

Bradley Thomas · CB

CFBD athlete 5154353

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Brendan Jenkins · WR

CFBD athlete 5156183

receiving · LONG: 72
receiving · REC: 25
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 430
receiving · YPR: 17.2

Caleb Wynn · RB

CFBD athlete 5290624

rushing · CAR: 5
rushing · LONG: 32
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 56
rushing · YPC: 11.2

Cam McFarlin · TE

CFBD athlete 5395313

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Camen Upshaw · S

CFBD athlete 5161855

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10

Christian Ross · LB

CFBD athlete 5087083

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2

Colby Williams · CB

CFBD athlete 5239859

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Cole Blaylock · S

CFBD athlete 5097969

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 46

Cube Gurley · CB

CFBD athlete 5148584

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

D.J. Moore · S

CFBD athlete 4840124

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5
interceptions · AVG: 13.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 13

Dallas Young · S

CFBD athlete 4871084

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 19
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 36

Damyrion Darby · CB

CFBD athlete 5192954

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 19
interceptions · AVG: 19.3
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 58

Davis Little · PK

CFBD athlete 5185701

kicking · FGA: 12
kicking · FGM: 9
kicking · LONG: 42
kicking · PCT: 0.750
kicking · PTS: 56
kicking · XPA: 30
kicking · XPM: 29

Deon Callins · S

CFBD athlete 5278663

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Deuce Vance · CB

CFBD athlete 5238145

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

E'Mauri Smiley · DL

CFBD athlete 5217871

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1.0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Everett Hunter · TE

CFBD athlete 5151609

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 13
receiving · YPR: 6.5

Jacob Porco · LB

CFBD athlete 5220206

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jamal Siler · OL

CFBD athlete 5198261

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jared Hollins · QB

CFBD athlete 5148858

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 125
passing · COMPLETIONS: 68
passing · INT: 3
passing · PCT: 0.544
passing · TD: 7
passing · YDS: 1003
passing · YPA: 8.0
rushing · CAR: 34
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 112
rushing · YPC: 3.3

Jaylen Moson · CB

CFBD athlete 5077268

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 21
interceptions · AVG: 12.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 12

Jayvon Henderson · S

CFBD athlete 5084551

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 30

Jeremiah Jones-Thomas · WR

CFBD athlete 5295064

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
puntReturns · AVG: 10.0
puntReturns · LONG: 14
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 20
receiving · LONG: 40
receiving · REC: 23
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 266
receiving · YPR: 11.6

Jordon Williams · LB

CFBD athlete 5160232

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 38

Kaleb Jackson · S

CFBD athlete 5220200

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Kam Robinson · S

CFBD athlete 5395309

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 14
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Keenan Phillips · RB

CFBD athlete 5295070

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 26.7
kickReturns · LONG: 100
kickReturns · NO: 10
kickReturns · TD: 1
kickReturns · YDS: 267
receiving · LONG: 15
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 46
receiving · YPR: 5.8
rushing · CAR: 96
rushing · LONG: 42
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 514
rushing · YPC: 5.4

Kohl Bradley · S

CFBD athlete 5221511

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Masey Lewis · DL

CFBD athlete 5084222

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 24
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 4.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 4

Matthew Laseter · S

CFBD athlete 5220201

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Micah Woods · WR

CFBD athlete 5151368

receiving · LONG: 49
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 127
receiving · YPR: 15.9
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Noah Toster · WR

CFBD athlete 5220194

receiving · LONG: 23
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 28
receiving · YPR: 14.0

PJ Martin · RB

CFBD athlete 5124334

kickReturns · AVG: 20.0
kickReturns · LONG: 28
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 40
receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 39
receiving · YPR: 4.3
rushing · CAR: 106
rushing · LONG: 33
rushing · TD: 7
rushing · YDS: 470
rushing · YPC: 4.4

Parker Shattuck · LB

CFBD athlete 5148775

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 26
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Perry Hand · LB

CFBD athlete 5395312

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Peyton Argent · PK

CFBD athlete 5154342

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Rod Gibbs · TE

CFBD athlete 5220195

receiving · LONG: 34
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 98
receiving · YPR: 8.2
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 26
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 26
rushing · YPC: 26.0

Rodney Hunter · DL

CFBD athlete 5395316

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Seidrion Langston · LB

CFBD athlete 5220224

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Stephen Johnson · DL

CFBD athlete 5078047

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Teryn Green · S

CFBD athlete 5274334

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Trae Stevenson · WR

CFBD athlete 5222214

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 35
receiving · YPR: 11.7

Trae'von Dunbar · RB

CFBD athlete 5079412

receiving · LONG: 17
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 23
receiving · YPR: 7.7
rushing · CAR: 50
rushing · LONG: 32
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 272
rushing · YPC: 5.4

Tre Webb III · CB

CFBD athlete 5395308

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Tre'Darius Brown · DL

CFBD athlete 5041959

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11

Tre'Mon Henry · LB

CFBD athlete 4870769

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 17

Tyler Carter · DL

CFBD athlete 5146853

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 13

William Felton IV · LB

CFBD athlete 5220202

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 12

Xavious Anderson Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5290934

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 18

Zechariah Hall · LB

CFBD athlete 5266922

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

Louisiana Tech -6

DraftKings snapshot: South Alabama +6

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Louisiana Tech by 4.52

1.48 points toward South Alabama versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward South Alabama.

Net EPA rating difference: -8.45
Fitted offset: +5.87
Fitted home field: -1.93

Reconciles to -4.52 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 870030a85c8b1f3d6a539bc3b12de7434f0668a7774a07537e8290fb79cbba29 · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 342721652cb1a61e398847b7dccad3b2c0f7962523614242fc6d73c205e28001 · through week 8.

What changed?

12 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved +0.5 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: South Alabama · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest	Change
Market spread	+5.5	+6.0	+0.5
Model spread	+4.52	+4.52	0.0
Model gap	+0.98	+1.48	+0.5

Negative spreads favor South Alabama; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Oct 29, 2026, 06:13:15 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 29, 2026, 06:02:06 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
Odds source SHA-256: c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
Latest published card SHA-256: 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
Odds source SHA-256: 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated Oct 30, 2026, 06:10:26 CDT. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 870030a85c8b1f3d6a539bc3b12de7434f0668a7774a07537e8290fb79cbba29. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.

Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap +1.5 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

South Alabama win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 34%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: South Alabama +6
Stacked ensemble: 45%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward South Alabama.

home adjusted success allowed: -13.80 (path difference 1.41)
home elo: -8.51 (path difference 1.07)
away elo: +8.00 (path difference 5.29)
away adjusted epa allowed: -7.62 (path difference 3.54)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +6.74 (path difference 0.34)
away adjusted success: -4.87 (path difference 1.95)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: -4.81 (path difference 0.10)
home adjusted explosiveness: +4.81 (path difference 0.31)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.66 (path difference 1.55)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +4.30 (path difference 2.80)
home adjusted second level yards: +4.21 (path difference 0.76)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +3.04 (path difference 0.47)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +2.92 (path difference 0.33)
home adjusted epa allowed: +2.69 (path difference 1.97)
away adjusted second level yards: +2.67 (path difference 0.44)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: -2.54 (path difference 0.80)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +2.36 (path difference 0.52)
home adjusted passing epa: +2.24 (path difference 1.39)
away adjusted epa: +1.99 (path difference 2.27)
away adjusted success allowed: -1.75 (path difference 0.08)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.73 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted rushing epa: -1.72 (path difference 0.15)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +1.50 (path difference 2.56)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.47 (path difference 0.55)
home adjusted line yards: -1.34 (path difference 0.46)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.33 (path difference 1.31)
home adjusted open field yards: -1.24 (path difference 2.24)
away talent: +1.21 (path difference 0.87)
home adjusted rushing epa: +1.19 (path difference 0.08)
away adjusted explosiveness: +1.06 (path difference 0.82)
away conference: +1.04 (path difference 0.38)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.87 (path difference 0.46)
home talent: +0.83 (path difference 0.49)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.75 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted success: +0.75 (path difference 0.45)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: +0.72 (path difference 1.64)
away adjusted passing epa: +0.56 (path difference 0.37)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +0.56 (path difference 1.79)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.47 (path difference 1.59)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.47 (path difference 1.33)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.47 (path difference 0.48)
away adjusted line yards: +0.43 (path difference 0.46)
away adjusted standard down success: -0.37 (path difference 0.41)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.36 (path difference 0.43)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.33 (path difference 0.07)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.31 (path difference 0.89)
home adjusted standard down success: +0.22 (path difference 0.39)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.20 (path difference 0.95)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.16 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.15 (path difference 0.02)
away adjusted passing down success: -0.13 (path difference 0.42)
week: +0.09 (path difference 0.78)
home adjusted epa: +0.09 (path difference 0.86)
home conference: -0.06 (path difference 0.99)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.05 (path difference 1.73)

Reconciles to 44.96 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 5f2a3635f76990b288315821fd69b2758a35f37cd1d201783ace05f67f846c79 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 789b375dc81e8e85998d4c06d0208e3162ca71d9513accf20c115287df63903d · through week 8.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.

Louisiana Tech

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 118 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Andrew Burnette CFBD athlete 5296374 Week 6 vs Louisiana: 14 attempts · 6.1 YPC · 35.7% success · 0.288 raw PPA. Week 7 vs UL Monroe: 21 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 38.1% success · -0.061 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Old Dominion: 20 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 35.0% success · -0.123 raw PPA.	55	4.1	0	46.6%	84 / 4.1
Blake Baker CFBD athlete 5150998 Week 6 vs Louisiana: 11 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.362 raw PPA. Week 7 vs UL Monroe: 8 attempts · -1.2 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.179 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Old Dominion: 10 attempts · 1.2 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.294 raw PPA.	29	1.3	8	24.6%	42 / 0.3
Sergio Snider CFBD athlete 4919037 Week 6 vs Louisiana: 3 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 66.7% success · -1.508 raw PPA. Week 7 vs UL Monroe: 4 attempts · 2.3 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.195 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Old Dominion: 2 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.173 raw PPA.	9	3.6	0	7.6%	15 / 4.7
Trey Kukuk CFBD athlete 5296376 Week 7 vs UL Monroe: 2 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.353 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Old Dominion: 6 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.286 raw PPA.	8	2.4	0	6.8%	40 / 4.7
Rayshun Hurt CFBD athlete 5382992 Week 7 vs UL Monroe: 2 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.099 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Old Dominion: 4 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.207 raw PPA.	6	3.8	0	5.1%	11 / 3.6

South Alabama

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 133 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Keenan Phillips CFBD athlete 5295070 Week 5 vs UL Monroe: 12 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.106 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Arkansas State: 19 attempts · 8.3 YPC · 52.6% success · 0.593 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Marshall: 16 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 62.5% success · 0.288 raw PPA.	47	5.7	0	35.3%	96 / 5.4
PJ Martin CFBD athlete 5124334 Week 5 vs UL Monroe: 13 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 38.5% success · -0.026 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Arkansas State: 16 attempts · 5.9 YPC · 43.8% success · 0.440 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Marshall: 14 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 28.6% success · -0.095 raw PPA.	43	4.7	0	32.3%	106 / 4.4
Trae'von Dunbar CFBD athlete 5079412 Week 5 vs UL Monroe: 12 attempts · 7.6 YPC · 58.3% success · 0.486 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Arkansas State: 5 attempts · 3.8 YPC · 60.0% success · -0.003 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Marshall: 5 attempts · 4.8 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.019 raw PPA.	22	6.1	0	16.5%	50 / 5.4
Jared Hollins CFBD athlete 5148858 Week 5 vs UL Monroe: 7 attempts · 3.4 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.452 raw PPA. Week 6 vs Arkansas State: 4 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 75.0% success · 1.365 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Marshall: 6 attempts · 1.8 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.458 raw PPA.	17	3.1	2	12.8%	33 / 2.9
Caleb Wynn CFBD athlete 5290624 Week 5 vs UL Monroe: 2 attempts · 17.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.309 raw PPA.	2	17.0	0	1.5%	5 / 11.2

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	South AlabamaOffense	Louisiana TechDefense	Louisiana TechOffense	South AlabamaDefense
PPA/play	+0.18 64th	-0.04 88th	+0.14 48th	+0.24 7th
Success rate	42.5% 45th	35.9% 84th	41.2% 36th	51.2% 1st
Explosiveness	1.33 85th	1.31 20th	1.30 80th	1.28 27th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.09 47th	-0.17 96th	+0.11 56th	+0.22 6th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.40 82nd	+0.16 53rd	+0.20 39th	+0.30 18th
Havoc allowed / created	13.5% 71st	23.0% 99th	16.1% 31st	16.4% 58th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:05 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:05 AM CDT

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.

Hunter Rioux · Louisiana Tech · PAAR -3.05 · 7 attempts
Davis Little · South Alabama · PAAR -0.98 · 12 attempts
Kaegan Kent · Louisiana Tech · PAAR -7.45 · 6 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

South Alabama spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +3.5 · Snapshot spread: +6

First locally observed: +5.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence