Week 9 · 2026
Boston College at Duke
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Boston College
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T16:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Mason McKenzie QB 3 games | 37.8% 31 / 82 plays | 51.4% 19 / 37 plays |
| Bo MacCormack III RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 54.1% 20 / 37 plays |
| Evan Dickens RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 9 / 18 plays |
| Mekhi Dodd RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 4 / 8 plays |
| Nolan Ray RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 3 / 3 plays |
| Landon Wright WR 1 games | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
| Anthony Ferrucci RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 60 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Andy Quinn · PK
CFBD athlete 5250468
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Anthony Ferrucci · RB
CFBD athlete 5160640
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Anthony Palano · LB
CFBD athlete 5227820
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 33
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7.5
- defensive · TOT
- 60
- interceptions · AVG
- 3.0
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 6
Ashton Cunningham · DB
CFBD athlete 5216309
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Bo MacCormack III · RB
CFBD athlete 5208592
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 12
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 48
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
- rushing · CAR
- 49
- rushing · LONG
- 24
- rushing · TD
- 4
- rushing · YDS
- 244
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
Bodie Kahoun · LB
CFBD athlete 5145122
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Brady Clough · TE
CFBD athlete 5222676
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 16
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 50
- receiving · YPR
- 8.3
Bryce LaFollette · P
CFBD athlete 5100750
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- punting · In 20
- 2
- punting · LONG
- 50
- punting · NO
- 25
- punting · TB
- 4
- punting · YDS
- 1019
- punting · YPP
- 40.8
Cameron Martinez · DB
CFBD athlete 4431242
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Cameron McGee · DL
CFBD athlete 5222698
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Carter Davis · DB
CFBD athlete 4923220
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 28
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 41
- interceptions · AVG
- 4.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 4
Chandler Jordan · DB
CFBD athlete 5167181
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Charlie Comella · DB
CFBD athlete 5147375
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 23
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 30
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- interceptions · AVG
- 17.5
- interceptions · INT
- 4
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 70
- puntReturns · AVG
- 1.6
- puntReturns · LONG
- 16
- puntReturns · NO
- 5
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 8
Chris Marable Jr. · DL
CFBD athlete 4917944
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Christian Hudson · DL
CFBD athlete 5148602
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Cooper Crook · LS
CFBD athlete 5222681
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Da'Jon Green · DB
CFBD athlete 5290506
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Danny Edgehille · TE
CFBD athlete 5222675
- receiving · LONG
- 20
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 39
- receiving · YPR
- 13.0
Dawson Pough · WR
CFBD athlete 5214566
- receiving · LONG
- 78
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 180
- receiving · YPR
- 15.0
Demetrius Ballard · DE
CFBD athlete 5194641
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 4.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7.0
- defensive · TOT
- 19
E'Lla Boykin · DL
CFBD athlete 5280992
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 4.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 17
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.0
- defensive · TOT
- 26
Evan Dickens · RB
CFBD athlete 5076122
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 43
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 114
- receiving · YPR
- 9.5
- rushing · CAR
- 66
- rushing · LONG
- 39
- rushing · TD
- 4
- rushing · YDS
- 296
- rushing · YPC
- 4.5
Favor Bate · DL
CFBD athlete 5225317
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Isaiah Farris · DB
CFBD athlete 4917124
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Israel Oladipupo · DL
CFBD athlete 5214511
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Jackson Wade · WR
CFBD athlete 5151897
- receiving · LONG
- 1
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 1
- receiving · YPR
- 1.0
Jaedn Skeete · WR
CFBD athlete 4871001
- receiving · LONG
- 24
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 84
- receiving · YPR
- 10.5
Javarius Green · WR
CFBD athlete 5146747
- kickReturns · AVG
- 11.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 11
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 11
- receiving · LONG
- 30
- receiving · REC
- 26
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 286
- receiving · YPR
- 11.0
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 8
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
John Montague · WR
CFBD athlete 5222689
- receiving · LONG
- 32
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 213
- receiving · YPR
- 17.8
Jonathan Hewitt · PK
CFBD athlete 5291003
- kicking · FGA
- 0
- kicking · FGM
- 0
- kicking · LONG
- 0
- kicking · PCT
- 0
- kicking · PTS
- 0
- kicking · XPA
- 1
- kicking · XPM
- 0
Jordan Rodriguez · DB
CFBD athlete 5289155
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Josiah Griffin · DL
CFBD athlete 4921436
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Juan Zubal · LB
CFBD athlete 5091763
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Judah Pruitt · OL
CFBD athlete 5142797
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Justin Medlock · LB
CFBD athlete 4702789
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
KP Price · DB
CFBD athlete 4921446
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 33
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 52
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Kameron Howard · DB
CFBD athlete 5101120
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Keith Sampson · DL
CFBD athlete 4871007
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Kemori Dixon · LB
CFBD athlete 5146821
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 17
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Kris Jones · DE
CFBD athlete 5079477
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Landon Wright · WR
CFBD athlete 5144853
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 0
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 0
- passing · YPA
- 0.0
- receiving · LONG
- 69
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 208
- receiving · YPR
- 26.0
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 8
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 6
- rushing · YPC
- 3.0
Luca Lombardo · PK
CFBD athlete 5165482
- kicking · FGA
- 8
- kicking · FGM
- 6
- kicking · LONG
- 52
- kicking · PCT
- 0.750
- kicking · PTS
- 33
- kicking · XPA
- 17
- kicking · XPM
- 15
Makai Byerson · DL
CFBD athlete 5079361
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Marcelous Townsend · DB
CFBD athlete 5214943
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Marcus Upton · DB
CFBD athlete 5208002
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 31
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 43
Mason McKenzie · QB
CFBD athlete 5307005
- fumbles · FUM
- 4
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 184
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 107
- passing · INT
- 7
- passing · PCT
- 0.582
- passing · TD
- 8
- passing · YDS
- 1363
- passing · YPA
- 7.4
- rushing · CAR
- 119
- rushing · LONG
- 45
- rushing · TD
- 5
- rushing · YDS
- 614
- rushing · YPC
- 5.2
Max Tucker · DB
CFBD athlete 5085773
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 17
Mekhi Dodd · RB
CFBD athlete 5211163
- receiving · LONG
- 2
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 2
- receiving · YPR
- 2.0
- rushing · CAR
- 10
- rushing · LONG
- 33
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 74
- rushing · YPC
- 7.4
Micah Amedee · DL
CFBD athlete 5209761
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Michael Mankaka · DB
CFBD athlete 5081451
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Nedrick Boldin Jr. · WR
CFBD athlete 5203610
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- receiving · LONG
- 25
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 53
- receiving · YPR
- 13.3
Nolan Ray · RB
CFBD athlete 4921316
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 13
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 42
- rushing · YPC
- 6.0
Onye Nwosisi · DL
CFBD athlete 5157579
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.0
- defensive · TOT
- 17
Rae Sykes Jr. · DB
CFBD athlete 5215279
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Reed Swanson · WR
CFBD athlete 5152600
- receiving · LONG
- 18
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 18
- receiving · YPR
- 18.0
Steve Klein · LB
CFBD athlete 5280932
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Syair Torrence · DB
CFBD athlete 5079730
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
TJ Green · DB
CFBD athlete 5209787
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 6
- kickReturns · AVG
- 20.4
- kickReturns · LONG
- 37
- kickReturns · NO
- 7
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 143
Zacari Thomas · LB
CFBD athlete 5215579
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Zeke Moore · TE
CFBD athlete 5077304
- receiving · LONG
- 37
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 63
- receiving · YPR
- 10.5
Duke
Window: 2026-10-23 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T16:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Walker Eget QB 3 games | 41.1% 44 / 107 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
| Nate Sheppard RB 3 games | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays | 37.9% 22 / 58 plays |
| CJ Campbell RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 31.3% 5 / 16 plays |
| Dan Mahan QB 3 games | 28.6% 2 / 7 plays | 50.0% 1 / 2 plays |
Traditional season production · 63 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Andrew Pellicciotta · S
CFBD athlete 5257397
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 21
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 33
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- puntReturns · AVG
- 10.6
- puntReturns · LONG
- 39
- puntReturns · NO
- 8
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 85
Asher Wasserman · LB
CFBD athlete 5209263
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Bradley Gompers · LB
CFBD athlete 5215542
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 3
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Brady Winter · S
CFBD athlete 5297370
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Brody Keefe · WR
CFBD athlete 5161004
- receiving · LONG
- 28
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 75
- receiving · YPR
- 18.8
Bryce Davis · DE
CFBD athlete 5141404
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4
- defensive · TOT
- 19
CJ Campbell · RB
CFBD athlete 4873588
- kickReturns · AVG
- 21.3
- kickReturns · LONG
- 33
- kickReturns · NO
- 4
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 85
- receiving · LONG
- 12
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 29
- receiving · YPR
- 5.8
- rushing · CAR
- 52
- rushing · LONG
- 33
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 258
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
CJ Givers · RB
CFBD athlete 5290560
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 28
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 36
- rushing · YPC
- 12.0
Chadwicke Cannon Jr. · DT
CFBD athlete 5271160
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Che Ojarikre · CB
CFBD athlete 5125153
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Colsen Gatten · LB
CFBD athlete 5276969
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Cosme Salas · PK
CFBD athlete 5218791
- kicking · FGA
- 5
- kicking · FGM
- 4
- kicking · LONG
- 39
- kicking · PCT
- 0.800
- kicking · PTS
- 28
- kicking · XPA
- 16
- kicking · XPM
- 16
DaShawn Stone · S
CFBD athlete 5086842
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 33
Dakota Quinonez · DT
CFBD athlete 5085514
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Dan Mahan · QB
CFBD athlete 5185699
- passing · ATT
- 15
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 8
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.533
- passing · TD
- 3
- passing · YDS
- 143
- passing · YPA
- 9.5
- rushing · CAR
- 10
- rushing · LONG
- 16
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 57
- rushing · YPC
- 5.7
David Anderson · DT
CFBD athlete 4923041
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.0
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Derrick Brown Jr. · LB
CFBD athlete 5148807
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Dylan Flowers · CB
CFBD athlete 4602921
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 14
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 29
Elliott Schaper · LB
CFBD athlete 5214935
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Evan Smith · CB
CFBD athlete 4870242
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
- interceptions · AVG
- 19.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 19
Gavin Strange · PK
CFBD athlete 5291821
- kicking · FGA
- 6
- kicking · FGM
- 5
- kicking · LONG
- 39
- kicking · PCT
- 0.833
- kicking · PTS
- 23
- kicking · XPA
- 9
- kicking · XPM
- 8
Jaivon Solomon · WR
CFBD athlete 5200108
- receiving · LONG
- 32
- receiving · REC
- 10
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 176
- receiving · YPR
- 17.6
Jake Taylor · TE
CFBD athlete 3949586
- receiving · LONG
- 43
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 76
- receiving · YPR
- 15.2
Jared Richardson · WR
CFBD athlete 5084409
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 31
- receiving · REC
- 16
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 213
- receiving · YPR
- 13.3
Javen Nicholas · WR
CFBD athlete 5081131
- receiving · LONG
- 13
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 13
- receiving · YPR
- 4.3
Jayden Moore · WR
CFBD athlete 5079610
- receiving · LONG
- 42
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 111
- receiving · YPR
- 15.9
Jayvian Tanelus · RB
CFBD athlete 5272781
- rushing · CAR
- 16
- rushing · LONG
- 22
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 90
- rushing · YPC
- 5.6
Jeremiah Hasley · TE
CFBD athlete 4869728
- receiving · LONG
- 35
- receiving · REC
- 21
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 250
- receiving · YPR
- 11.9
Jonah Burton · WR
CFBD athlete 4879192
- receiving · LONG
- 36
- receiving · REC
- 20
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 289
- receiving · YPR
- 14.5
Jonathan Morris · LB
CFBD athlete 5148825
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Julius Columbus · DT
CFBD athlete 5208949
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 11
KD Cotton · S
CFBD athlete 5290784
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
- puntReturns · AVG
- 24.5
- puntReturns · LONG
- 27
- puntReturns · NO
- 2
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 49
Kade Reynoldson · P
CFBD athlete 5193566
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 0
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 0
- passing · YPA
- 0.0
- punting · In 20
- 10
- punting · LONG
- 62
- punting · NO
- 26
- punting · TB
- 3
- punting · YDS
- 1193
- punting · YPP
- 45.9
Kaleb Lanier · CB
CFBD athlete 5200189
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Kavon Conciauro · WR
CFBD athlete 5266901
- receiving · LONG
- 12
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 12
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Kavon Simmons · WR
CFBD athlete 5216844
- receiving · LONG
- 29
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 71
- receiving · YPR
- 14.2
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 16
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 16
- rushing · YPC
- 16.0
Kendall Johnson · LB
CFBD athlete 4923294
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 21
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Kevin O'Connor · DE
CFBD athlete 5078552
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 4
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Kimari Robinson · CB
CFBD athlete 5077406
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Kobe Smith · DE
CFBD athlete 5146896
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Kolbe Harmon · CB
CFBD athlete 5166796
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Kyon Loud · CB
CFBD athlete 5225215
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 25
Landan Callahan · CB
CFBD athlete 5124964
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Leon Griffin III · S
CFBD athlete 4923278
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Luke Mergott · LB
CFBD athlete 5077267
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 32
Nate Kurisky · TE
CFBD athlete 4816323
- receiving · LONG
- 15
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 38
- receiving · YPR
- 7.6
Nate Sheppard · RB
CFBD athlete 5164332
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 28
- passing · YPA
- 28.0
- receiving · LONG
- 42
- receiving · REC
- 30
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 270
- receiving · YPR
- 9.0
- rushing · CAR
- 153
- rushing · LONG
- 47
- rushing · TD
- 9
- rushing · YDS
- 875
- rushing · YPC
- 5.7
Nick Morris Jr. · LB
CFBD athlete 4707209
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 44
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Obinna Umeh · DE
CFBD athlete 5291007
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Owen Wafle · DT
CFBD athlete 5079752
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Patrick Smith · S
CFBD athlete 5082164
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 21
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 4.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 4
Paxon Kettering · WR
CFBD athlete 5218795
- receiving · LONG
- 32
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 32
- receiving · YPR
- 32.0
Preston Watson · DT
CFBD athlete 5127043
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Sampson Onuoha · DE
CFBD athlete 5208567
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Semaj Turner · DE
CFBD athlete 4954450
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Terry Walker III · QB
CFBD athlete 5211205
- passing · ATT
- 4
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 2
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.500
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 44
- passing · YPA
- 11.0
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 3
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 2.0
Tommy Rupley · DE
CFBD athlete 5167756
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Tony Boggs · TE
CFBD athlete 5150581
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Tyshon Reed · DE
CFBD athlete 5146906
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 6
- defensive · SACKS
- 3
- defensive · SOLO
- 15
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7.0
- defensive · TOT
- 22
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Tyson Sanford · CB
CFBD athlete 5291698
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Walker Eget · QB
CFBD athlete 4694149
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 197
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 122
- passing · INT
- 3
- passing · PCT
- 0.619
- passing · TD
- 8
- passing · YDS
- 1440
- passing · YPA
- 7.3
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 11
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -6
- rushing · YPC
- -0.9
Wilhelm Daal · RB
CFBD athlete 5094035
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 7
- rushing · YPC
- 2.3
Will Felder Jr. · LB
CFBD athlete 5197251
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
No pick
Duke -7
Bovada snapshot: Duke -7
Duke by 5.95
1.05 points toward Boston College versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Duke.
- Fitted offset: +5.87
- Net EPA rating difference: +2.01
- Fitted home field: -1.93
Reconciles to 5.95 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 6512a9c6b836007c7668190f79352af94026c78ef2d8237f8de781a68110ee7a · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 1c36c48b66356fd8f70c94660809f7bb796cc9a78947331a2acb7c3ff3b88197 · through week 8.
What changed?
12 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | -7.0 | -7.0 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | -5.95 | -5.95 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | -1.05 | -1.05 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor Duke; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
- Odds source SHA-256
- c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
- Odds source SHA-256
- 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
Model context & pick method
Pick logic
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 6512a9c6b836007c7668190f79352af94026c78ef2d8237f8de781a68110ee7a. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.
Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap -1.1 points, minimum 3.0
Win probabilities · separate sources
Duke win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 69%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: Duke -7
- Stacked ensemble
- 66%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Duke.
- home elo: +7.02 (path difference 5.31)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +6.83 (path difference 4.23)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -5.45 (path difference 1.15)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -5.37 (path difference 2.12)
- home adjusted success: -5.13 (path difference 3.29)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +5.08 (path difference 0.61)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.97 (path difference 1.95)
- away elo: +4.94 (path difference 4.46)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.55 (path difference 1.46)
- away adjusted epa: +4.53 (path difference 2.78)
- home adjusted success allowed: +4.28 (path difference 1.18)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +4.23 (path difference 1.93)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -4.02 (path difference 1.70)
- home adjusted epa: +3.97 (path difference 3.84)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +3.41 (path difference 2.76)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +3.05 (path difference 0.03)
- away adjusted second level yards: -2.94 (path difference 1.73)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +2.76 (path difference 0.24)
- home adjusted second level yards: +2.73 (path difference 1.08)
- home adjusted line yards: -2.59 (path difference 0.47)
- away adjusted success: -2.45 (path difference 0.35)
- away talent: -2.35 (path difference 0.20)
- home talent: +2.32 (path difference 1.18)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +2.30 (path difference 0.91)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -2.26 (path difference 0.04)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +2.16 (path difference 1.16)
- away adjusted line yards: -1.71 (path difference 2.51)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.55 (path difference 0.31)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +1.52 (path difference 0.91)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: -1.45 (path difference 3.32)
- home adjusted passing down success: -1.43 (path difference 0.71)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -1.37 (path difference 0.27)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -1.37 (path difference 0.65)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.33 (path difference 0.14)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -1.26 (path difference 1.45)
- home adjusted open field yards: -1.24 (path difference 0.41)
- home adjusted standard down success: -1.08 (path difference 3.83)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.93 (path difference 2.09)
- away adjusted standard down success: +0.93 (path difference 0.15)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.75 (path difference 0.43)
- away adjusted passing epa: +0.62 (path difference 2.18)
- home conference: -0.61 (path difference 0.49)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.52 (path difference 1.25)
- away adjusted success allowed: -0.45 (path difference 0.42)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.44 (path difference 0.69)
- away adjusted passing down success: -0.39 (path difference 4.32)
- away conference: -0.38 (path difference 0.13)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.28 (path difference 0.72)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.23 (path difference 0.39)
- week: -0.20 (path difference 1.33)
- home adjusted passing epa: +0.20 (path difference 0.03)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.01 (path difference 0.00)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.01 (path difference 0.43)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.00 (path difference 0.09)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.00 (path difference 0.00)
Reconciles to 66.03 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs a700112a2e17ab84e4153ac0e121414fc19f5daf70e61bf3882e9d637ad55cfb · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast 971eb825aeabdc2692e954b7023d0f5764960c6b3e486af7dfa40896cdf38054 · through week 8.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.
Boston College
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 114 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason McKenzieCFBD athlete 5307005 Week 5 vs SMU: 21 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 43.8% success · 0.470 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Pittsburgh: 8 attempts · 0.9 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.107 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Georgia Tech: 16 attempts · 10.6 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.851 raw PPA. | 45 | 5.6 | 8 | 39.5% | 116 / 5.2 |
Bo MacCormack IIICFBD athlete 5208592 Week 5 vs SMU: 6 attempts · 1.7 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.053 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Pittsburgh: 11 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 36.4% success · -0.359 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Georgia Tech: 20 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 70.0% success · 0.587 raw PPA. | 37 | 5.4 | 0 | 32.5% | 49 / 5.0 |
Evan DickensCFBD athlete 5076122 Week 5 vs SMU: 5 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 60.0% success · -0.020 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Pittsburgh: 13 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 46.2% success · -0.120 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Georgia Tech: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.287 raw PPA. | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | 16.7% | 63 / 4.4 |
Mekhi DoddCFBD athlete 5211163 Week 7 vs Pittsburgh: 3 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.181 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Georgia Tech: 5 attempts · 6.6 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.137 raw PPA. | 8 | 5.3 | 0 | 7.0% | 10 / 7.4 |
Nolan RayCFBD athlete 4921316 Week 8 vs Georgia Tech: 3 attempts · 12.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.259 raw PPA. | 3 | 12.0 | 0 | 2.6% | 7 / 6.0 |
Duke
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 79 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nate SheppardCFBD athlete 5164332 Week 6 vs Georgia Tech: 25 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 36.0% success · 0.163 raw PPA. Week 7 vs North Carolina: 19 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 52.6% success · 0.210 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Virginia: 15 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.099 raw PPA. | 59 | 3.8 | 0 | 74.7% | 148 / 5.6 |
CJ CampbellCFBD athlete 4873588 Week 6 vs Georgia Tech: 6 attempts · 7.7 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.350 raw PPA. Week 7 vs North Carolina: 9 attempts · 6.8 YPC · 33.3% success · -1.021 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Virginia: 1 attempts · 12.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.373 raw PPA. | 16 | 7.4 | 0 | 20.3% | 50 / 5.0 |
Dan MahanCFBD athlete 5185699 Week 6 vs Georgia Tech: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.096 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Virginia: 2 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.445 raw PPA. | 3 | 2.7 | 1 | 3.8% | 9 / 5.3 |
Walker EgetCFBD athlete 4694149 Week 6 vs Georgia Tech: 1 attempts · 11.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.003 raw PPA. | 1 | 11.0 | 0 | 1.3% | 6 / 1.3 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | DukeOffense | Boston CollegeDefense | Boston CollegeOffense | DukeDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.23 80th | +0.01 74th | +0.07 28th | +0.01 76th |
| Success rate | 42.8% 47th | 40.6% 50th | 41.3% 37th | 38.0% 72nd |
| Explosiveness | 1.33 88th | 1.16 77th | 1.27 69th | 1.15 78th |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.15 73rd | -0.02 66th | +0.05 37th | +0.07 35th |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.41 83rd | +0.08 77th | +0.10 21st | -0.11 96th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 10.8% 92nd | 17.2% 70th | 17.3% 17th | 16.0% 51st |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:50 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:50 AM CDT
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.
- Luca Lombardo · Boston College · PAAR 0.06 · 8 attempts
- Cosme Salas · Duke · PAAR -0.12 · 5 attempts
- Gavin Strange · Duke · PAAR 0.29 · 6 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Duke spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: -7.5 · Snapshot spread: -7
First locally observed: -7.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 49 · Snapshot total: 48.5
Total · First locally observed: 48.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -310 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -310 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +255 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +255 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: -7 · Snapshot spread: -7
First locally observed: -7.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 47.5 · Snapshot total: 48.5
Total · First locally observed: 48.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: -278 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: -310 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: +225 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: +250 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Duke
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 8 rated weeks · ACC
Boston College
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.0 · 8 rated weeks · ACC
Travel
Boston College travels 604 miles (longer than half of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Boston College leads 5–4 in 9 meetings since 1927.
- 2022Duke at Boston College38–31 · Duke
- 2020Boston College at Duke26–6 · Boston College
- 2015Boston College at Duke7–9 · Duke
- 2011Duke at Boston College20–19 · Duke
- 2010Boston College at Duke21–16 · Boston College
- 2006Duke at Boston College7–28 · Boston College
CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.