Week 10 · 2026

Duke at NC State

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Duke

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-23 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T17:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Walker Eget QB 3 games	44.6% 37 / 83 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays
Nate Sheppard RB 3 games	100.0% 1 / 1 plays	40.7% 22 / 54 plays
CJ Campbell RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	27.8% 5 / 18 plays
Dan Mahan QB 3 games	21.4% 3 / 14 plays	25.0% 1 / 4 plays
Jayvian Tanelus RB 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	40.0% 2 / 5 plays

Traditional season production · 65 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Andrew Pellicciotta · S

CFBD athlete 5257397

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 21
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 33
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
puntReturns · AVG: 10.6
puntReturns · LONG: 39
puntReturns · NO: 8
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 85

Asher Wasserman · LB

CFBD athlete 5209263

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Ayden Cain · DT

CFBD athlete 5209956

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0

Bradley Gompers · LB

CFBD athlete 5215542

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 4
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5.5
defensive · TOT: 20

Brady Winter · S

CFBD athlete 5297370

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Brody Keefe · WR

CFBD athlete 5161004

receiving · LONG: 28
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 85
receiving · YPR: 14.2

Bryce Davis · DE

CFBD athlete 5141404

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5
defensive · TOT: 21

CJ Campbell · RB

CFBD athlete 4873588

kickReturns · AVG: 21.3
kickReturns · LONG: 33
kickReturns · NO: 4
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 85
receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 38
receiving · YPR: 6.3
rushing · CAR: 60
rushing · LONG: 33
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 284
rushing · YPC: 4.7

CJ Givers · RB

CFBD athlete 5290560

rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 28
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 36
rushing · YPC: 12.0

Chadwicke Cannon Jr. · DT

CFBD athlete 5271160

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 2

Che Ojarikre · CB

CFBD athlete 5125153

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 16

Colsen Gatten · LB

CFBD athlete 5276969

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Cosme Salas · PK

CFBD athlete 5218791

kicking · FGA: 5
kicking · FGM: 4
kicking · LONG: 39
kicking · PCT: 0.800
kicking · PTS: 28
kicking · XPA: 16
kicking · XPM: 16

DaShawn Stone · S

CFBD athlete 5086842

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 23
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 39

Dakota Quinonez · DT

CFBD athlete 5085514

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Dan Mahan · QB

CFBD athlete 5185699

passing · ATT: 22
passing · COMPLETIONS: 13
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.591
passing · TD: 3
passing · YDS: 175
passing · YPA: 8.0
rushing · CAR: 13
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 51
rushing · YPC: 3.9

David Anderson · DT

CFBD athlete 4923041

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 8

Derrick Brown Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5148807

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Dylan Flowers · CB

CFBD athlete 4602921

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 31

Elliott Schaper · LB

CFBD athlete 5214935

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Evan Smith · CB

CFBD athlete 4870242

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 9
interceptions · AVG: 19.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 19

Gavin Strange · PK

CFBD athlete 5291821

kicking · FGA: 8
kicking · FGM: 7
kicking · LONG: 41
kicking · PCT: 0.875
kicking · PTS: 34
kicking · XPA: 15
kicking · XPM: 13

Jaivon Solomon · WR

CFBD athlete 5200108

receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 11
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 207
receiving · YPR: 18.8

Jake Taylor · TE

CFBD athlete 3949586

receiving · LONG: 43
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 76
receiving · YPR: 15.2

Jared Richardson · WR

CFBD athlete 5084409

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 31
receiving · REC: 18
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 226
receiving · YPR: 12.6

Javen Nicholas · WR

CFBD athlete 5081131

receiving · LONG: 44
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 57
receiving · YPR: 14.3

Jayden Moore · WR

CFBD athlete 5079610

receiving · LONG: 42
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 111
receiving · YPR: 15.9

Jaylen Carl · DE

CFBD athlete 5218797

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jayvian Tanelus · RB

CFBD athlete 5272781

rushing · CAR: 21
rushing · LONG: 26
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 136
rushing · YPC: 6.5

Jeremiah Hasley · TE

CFBD athlete 4869728

receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 24
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 305
receiving · YPR: 12.7

Jonah Burton · WR

CFBD athlete 4879192

receiving · LONG: 36
receiving · REC: 21
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 299
receiving · YPR: 14.2

Jonathan Morris · LB

CFBD athlete 5148825

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 8

Julius Columbus · DT

CFBD athlete 5208949

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 14

KD Cotton · S

CFBD athlete 5290784

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8
puntReturns · AVG: 15.8
puntReturns · LONG: 27
puntReturns · NO: 5
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 79

Kade Reynoldson · P

CFBD athlete 5193566

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
punting · In 20: 10
punting · LONG: 62
punting · NO: 28
punting · TB: 3
punting · YDS: 1279
punting · YPP: 45.7

Kaleb Lanier · CB

CFBD athlete 5200189

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Kavon Conciauro · WR

CFBD athlete 5266901

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Kavon Simmons · WR

CFBD athlete 5216844

receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 97
receiving · YPR: 12.1
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 16
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 16
rushing · YPC: 16.0

Kendall Johnson · LB

CFBD athlete 4923294

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 25
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Kevin O'Connor · DE

CFBD athlete 5078552

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 4.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Kimari Robinson · CB

CFBD athlete 5077406

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 5

Kobe Smith · DE

CFBD athlete 5146896

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 14
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Kolbe Harmon · CB

CFBD athlete 5166796

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kyon Loud · CB

CFBD athlete 5225215

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 27

Landan Callahan · CB

CFBD athlete 5124964

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Leon Griffin III · S

CFBD athlete 4923278

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Luke Mergott · LB

CFBD athlete 5077267

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 33

Nate Kurisky · TE

CFBD athlete 4816323

receiving · LONG: 15
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 41
receiving · YPR: 6.8

Nate Sheppard · RB

CFBD athlete 5164332

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 28
passing · YPA: 28.0
receiving · LONG: 42
receiving · REC: 31
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 302
receiving · YPR: 9.7
rushing · CAR: 173
rushing · LONG: 54
rushing · TD: 14
rushing · YDS: 972
rushing · YPC: 5.6

Nick Morris Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 4707209

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 45
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2

Obinna Umeh · DE

CFBD athlete 5291007

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Owen Wafle · DT

CFBD athlete 5079752

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Patrick Smith · S

CFBD athlete 5082164

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 23
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 4.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 4

Paxon Kettering · WR

CFBD athlete 5218795

receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 32
receiving · YPR: 32.0

Preston Watson · DT

CFBD athlete 5127043

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 21

Sampson Onuoha · DE

CFBD athlete 5208567

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 5

Semaj Turner · DE

CFBD athlete 4954450

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 5

Terry Walker III · QB

CFBD athlete 5211205

passing · ATT: 4
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 44
passing · YPA: 11.0
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 3
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 4
rushing · YPC: 2.0

Tommy Rupley · DE

CFBD athlete 5167756

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 2

Tony Boggs · TE

CFBD athlete 5150581

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tyshon Reed · DE

CFBD athlete 5146906

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 6
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 15
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.0
defensive · TOT: 23
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Tyson Sanford · CB

CFBD athlete 5291698

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Walker Eget · QB

CFBD athlete 4694149

fumbles · FUM: 3
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 215
passing · COMPLETIONS: 133
passing · INT: 3
passing · PCT: 0.619
passing · TD: 9
passing · YDS: 1641
passing · YPA: 7.6
rushing · CAR: 9
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -14
rushing · YPC: -1.6

Wilhelm Daal · RB

CFBD athlete 5094035

rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 4
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 7
rushing · YPC: 2.3

Will Felder Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5197251

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 12

NC State

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T17:30:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
CJ Bailey QB 3 games	41.4% 41 / 99 plays	63.6% 14 / 22 plays
Davion Gause RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	42.1% 16 / 38 plays
Will Wilson QB 3 games	100.0% 1 / 1 plays	60.0% 6 / 10 plays
Darius Johnson RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 3 / 9 plays
Dylan McCoy RB 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 2 / 6 plays
Victor Snow WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 66 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Prim · DL

CFBD athlete 5296071

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8

AJ Richardson · LB

CFBD athlete 5155981

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Adrian Farrow · DL

CFBD athlete 5203717

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 7
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Amiri Acker · WR

CFBD athlete 5290566

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 14
receiving · YPR: 14.0

Asaad Brown Jr. · CB

CFBD athlete 5079316

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Ashton Locklear · WR

CFBD athlete 5081845

receiving · LONG: 10
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 20
receiving · YPR: 6.7

Bailey Benson · LB

CFBD athlete 5296060

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Brian Nelson II · CB

CFBD athlete 5125151

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 29
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 35

Brody Barnhardt · S

CFBD athlete 5079315

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 10
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 21
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

CJ Bailey · QB

CFBD athlete 5079301

fumbles · FUM: 4
fumbles · LOST: 4
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 244
passing · COMPLETIONS: 156
passing · INT: 4
passing · PCT: 0.639
passing · TD: 13
passing · YDS: 1955
passing · YPA: 8.0
receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 0
receiving · YPR: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 63
rushing · LONG: 28
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 178
rushing · YPC: 2.8

Caden Gordon · CB

CFBD athlete 5212730

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Chance Robinson · WR

CFBD athlete 5079661

receiving · LONG: 38
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 168
receiving · YPR: 14.0

Chase Bond · DE

CFBD athlete 5146992

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 5
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 12

Chino Aguirre · S

CFBD athlete 5378092

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Colby Cronk · DT

CFBD athlete 5167700

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

DaKaari Nelson · LB

CFBD athlete 4870957

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 7

Darius Johnson · RB

CFBD athlete 5159453

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
receiving · LONG: 8
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 12
rushing · LONG: 6
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 36
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Davion Dozier · WR

CFBD athlete 5080819

receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 35
receiving · YPR: 8.8

Davion Gause · RB

CFBD athlete 5079468

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 36
receiving · REC: 21
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 202
receiving · YPR: 9.6
rushing · CAR: 87
rushing · LONG: 28
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 352
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Deandre Desinor · RB

CFBD athlete 5141409

receiving · LONG: 58
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 135
receiving · YPR: 16.9
rushing · CAR: 4
rushing · LONG: 8
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 17
rushing · YPC: 4.3

Dylan McCoy · RB

CFBD athlete 5176079

rushing · CAR: 10
rushing · LONG: 51
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 88
rushing · YPC: 8.8

Elijah Satchell · LB

CFBD athlete 5289316

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 4
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 5
defensive · TOT: 17

Harvey Dyson III · LB

CFBD athlete 4901373

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 11
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 19

Hunter Provience · TE

CFBD athlete 5172608

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 24
receiving · REC: 9
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 79
receiving · YPR: 8.8

Isaiah Shirley · DT

CFBD athlete 4871041

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 16

Isiah Jones · RB

CFBD athlete 5147510

rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 5
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 12
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Jackson Vick · CB

CFBD athlete 4703069

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 28
interceptions · AVG: -1.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: -1

Jackson Waller · P

CFBD athlete 5219235

punting · In 20: 12
punting · LONG: 60
punting · NO: 32
punting · TB: 1
punting · YDS: 1369
punting · YPP: 42.8

Jamel Johnson · CB

CFBD athlete 5086869

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Jaren Sensabaugh · CB

CFBD athlete 5147970

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 18
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Jayden Scott · RB

CFBD athlete 5126513

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 11
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 21
receiving · YPR: 7.0
rushing · CAR: 62
rushing · LONG: 65
rushing · TD: 4
rushing · YDS: 358
rushing · YPC: 5.8

Jonathan Paylor · RB

CFBD athlete 5079659

kickReturns · AVG: 18.0
kickReturns · LONG: 18
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 18
rushing · CAR: 2
rushing · LONG: 51
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 52
rushing · YPC: 26.0

Jordan Moreta · LB

CFBD athlete 5265578

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Jordyn Best · CB

CFBD athlete 5290766

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Joseph Adedire · DE

CFBD athlete 4872478

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 9

Josh Warren Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5378101

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 4

Joshisa Trader · WR

CFBD athlete 5079745

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 2
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 5
passing · YPA: 2.5
receiving · LONG: 46
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 221
receiving · YPR: 13.8

Josiah Victor · DL

CFBD athlete 5217706

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 12

Kanoah Vinesett · PK

CFBD athlete 5081852

kicking · FGA: 9
kicking · FGM: 8
kicking · LONG: 46
kicking · PCT: 0.889
kicking · PTS: 55
kicking · XPA: 31
kicking · XPM: 31

Katron Evans · DL

CFBD athlete 4432697

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Keenan Jackson · WR

CFBD athlete 5079524

receiving · LONG: 54
receiving · REC: 30
receiving · TD: 6
receiving · YDS: 456
receiving · YPR: 15.2

Kevon Carter · LB

CFBD athlete 5207855

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 9

King Mack · S

CFBD athlete 4870877

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 21
kickReturns · AVG: 20.0
kickReturns · LONG: 32
kickReturns · NO: 6
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 120

LaCorian Hodge · LB

CFBD athlete 5263574

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 14

Logan Foust · LB

CFBD athlete 5220012

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Michael Tate · CB

CFBD athlete 5151801

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 11

Noah Moss · RB

CFBD athlete 5291741

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 13
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 13
rushing · YPC: 13.0

Omarian Abraham · OL

CFBD athlete 5203854

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 13

Ondre Evans · DB

CFBD athlete 5084046

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Pluto Surratt · S

CFBD athlete 5378090

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Preston Douglas · TE

CFBD athlete 5215337

receiving · LONG: 43
receiving · REC: 26
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 304
receiving · YPR: 11.7

Raul Aguirre Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 4870590

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 35
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 77
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 3

Rico Jackson · OL

CFBD athlete 4870806

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ronnie Royal III · S

CFBD athlete 5079666

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 16
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 33

Sterling Dixon · LB

CFBD athlete 5079411

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Teague Andersen · OL

CFBD athlete 5082623

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tex Vaughn · TE

CFBD athlete 5378098

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 9
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 4.5

Trent Mitchell · OL

CFBD athlete 5146779

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Tristan Teasdell · S

CFBD athlete 5211398

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 17

Ty White · DB

CFBD athlete 5219162

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 8
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Tyran Warren · WR

CFBD athlete 5160003

receiving · LONG: 34
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 119
receiving · YPR: 14.9

Vander Ploog · TE

CFBD athlete 5201877

receiving · LONG: 21
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 25
receiving · YPR: 12.5

Victor Snow · WR

CFBD athlete 5084967

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
puntReturns · AVG: 9.5
puntReturns · LONG: 33
puntReturns · NO: 14
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 133
receiving · LONG: 36
receiving · REC: 19
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 175
receiving · YPR: 9.2
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Will Wilson · QB

CFBD athlete 5148611

passing · ATT: 12
passing · COMPLETIONS: 9
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.750
passing · TD: 2
passing · YDS: 35
passing · YPA: 2.9
rushing · CAR: 46
rushing · LONG: 38
rushing · TD: 8
rushing · YDS: 179
rushing · YPC: 3.9

Zane Williams · LB

CFBD athlete 5147735

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Ziggy Moore · LB

CFBD athlete 5290700

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 17

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

Duke -4

EPA-OLS history for 3-7 point gaps: 51% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 175 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.

CFBD median · DraftKings quote matches

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Duke by 9.60

5.60 points toward Duke versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward NC State.

Net EPA rating difference: -13.61
Fitted offset: +5.20
Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to -9.60 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs e5c81e2c71c0a36f65015dd0ccdf5faad90f20839c2c790100047c57db4162e9 · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast 514210de1a33c417316269ddc2226fe9becf541e4a4e19fe71458f34d035ff74 · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

No change in spread, forecast or model gap.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: NC State · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest
Market spread	+4.0	+4.0
Model spread	+9.6	+9.6
Model gap	-5.6	-5.6

Negative spreads favor NC State; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: e5c81e2c71c0a36f65015dd0ccdf5faad90f20839c2c790100047c57db4162e9. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

Margins are not projected scores.

Pick logic

Duke -4

Model gap -5.6 points

A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor NC State.

Win probabilities · separate sources

NC State win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 39%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: NC State +4
Stacked ensemble: 37%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward NC State.

away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +10.24 (path difference 0.98)
away adjusted epa allowed: -8.19 (path difference 1.35)
home adjusted second level yards: +7.90 (path difference 1.82)
home adjusted rushing epa: -5.87 (path difference 1.90)
home adjusted epa: +5.57 (path difference 3.46)
away elo: -5.38 (path difference 1.00)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.71 (path difference 0.79)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.37 (path difference 1.42)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -4.15 (path difference 2.38)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -4.12 (path difference 1.26)
home talent: +3.26 (path difference 1.07)
home adjusted line yards: -3.20 (path difference 0.29)
home adjusted success allowed: -3.17 (path difference 2.09)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +2.48 (path difference 0.58)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -2.43 (path difference 0.42)
away adjusted explosiveness: +2.04 (path difference 0.18)
home adjusted open field yards: -1.85 (path difference 2.53)
away adjusted passing down success: -1.75 (path difference 1.13)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +1.65 (path difference 0.41)
away talent: -1.60 (path difference 0.70)
away adjusted success: +1.44 (path difference 0.19)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.35 (path difference 0.22)
week: -1.32 (path difference 0.03)
home adjusted passing epa: +1.24 (path difference 1.38)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.18 (path difference 0.31)
away adjusted rushing epa: +1.04 (path difference 0.15)
away adjusted standard down success: -1.01 (path difference 0.73)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.92 (path difference 0.17)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.88 (path difference 1.90)
home conference: -0.86 (path difference 0.01)
home adjusted success: +0.82 (path difference 0.27)
home elo: -0.79 (path difference 1.02)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.68 (path difference 0.45)
away conference: -0.64 (path difference 0.41)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.62 (path difference 0.92)
home adjusted explosiveness: +0.60 (path difference 0.48)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: -0.55 (path difference 0.67)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +0.49 (path difference 0.71)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.49 (path difference 0.44)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.46 (path difference 2.20)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.46 (path difference 0.03)
away adjusted success allowed: -0.35 (path difference 0.07)
away adjusted second level yards: +0.34 (path difference 0.31)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.32 (path difference 0.04)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.29 (path difference 0.33)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.28 (path difference 0.54)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.15 (path difference 0.75)
away adjusted line yards: -0.15 (path difference 0.44)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.11 (path difference 2.18)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.09 (path difference 0.04)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.06 (path difference 0.42)
away adjusted epa: +0.06 (path difference 0.42)
away adjusted passing epa: -0.03 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted epa allowed: -0.00 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted standard down success: -0.00 (path difference 0.00)

Reconciles to 36.73 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 0fb550597b98f25f65df47f1bc1937d6a2548146cdce1932d78693940df654cf · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast a2058c64cadc036b6e7fa97f3e29f3cc3559ff158f5e3fb4944d4e141300c181 · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Duke

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 83 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Nate Sheppard CFBD athlete 5164332 Week 7 vs North Carolina: 19 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 52.6% success · 0.210 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Virginia: 15 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 20.0% success · -0.099 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Boston College: 20 attempts · 4.9 YPC · 45.0% success · 0.399 raw PPA.	54	4.4	0	65.1%	168 / 5.5
CJ Campbell CFBD athlete 4873588 Week 7 vs North Carolina: 9 attempts · 6.8 YPC · 33.3% success · -1.021 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Virginia: 1 attempts · 12.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.373 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Boston College: 8 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.151 raw PPA.	18	5.5	0	21.7%	58 / 4.8
Dan Mahan CFBD athlete 5185699 Week 8 vs Virginia: 2 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.445 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Boston College: 3 attempts · -2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.745 raw PPA.	5	-0.2	1	6.0%	12 / 3.5
Jayvian Tanelus CFBD athlete 5272781 Week 9 vs Boston College: 5 attempts · 9.2 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.659 raw PPA.	5	9.2	0	6.0%	21 / 6.5
Walker Eget CFBD athlete 4694149 Week 9 vs Boston College: 1 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.114 raw PPA.	1	4.0	0	1.2%	7 / 1.7

NC State

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 92 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Davion Gause CFBD athlete 5079468 Week 6 vs Wake Forest: 7 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 14.3% success · -0.524 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Stanford: 14 attempts · 3.1 YPC · 35.7% success · -0.230 raw PPA. Week 9 vs California: 17 attempts · 5.7 YPC · 58.8% success · 0.314 raw PPA.	38	4.0	0	41.3%	83 / 4.0
CJ Bailey CFBD athlete 5079301 Week 6 vs Wake Forest: 12 attempts · 1.9 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.035 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Stanford: 9 attempts · 6.6 YPC · 85.7% success · 0.713 raw PPA. Week 9 vs California: 7 attempts · 0.1 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.909 raw PPA.	28	3.0	5	30.4%	61 / 3.4
Will Wilson CFBD athlete 5148611 Week 6 vs Wake Forest: 1 attempts · -1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.644 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Stanford: 6 attempts · 1.3 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.584 raw PPA. Week 9 vs California: 3 attempts · 1.7 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.090 raw PPA.	10	1.2	0	10.9%	45 / 4.0
Darius Johnson CFBD athlete 5159453 Week 8 vs Stanford: 2 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.145 raw PPA. Week 9 vs California: 7 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 28.6% success · -0.041 raw PPA.	9	2.4	0	9.8%	12 / 3.0
Dylan McCoy CFBD athlete 5176079 Week 6 vs Wake Forest: 3 attempts · 1.7 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.533 raw PPA. Week 9 vs California: 3 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.038 raw PPA.	6	2.5	0	6.5%	10 / 8.8

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	NC StateOffense	DukeDefense	DukeOffense	NC StateDefense
PPA/play	+0.20 72nd	-0.06 91st	+0.24 84th	+0.14 27th
Success rate	45.9% 73rd	37.8% 74th	42.1% 47th	41.0% 47th
Explosiveness	1.21 41st	1.09 95th	1.34 91st	1.30 20th
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.11 59th	+0.01 56th	+0.17 77th	+0.06 38th
Passing-down PPA/play	+0.40 85th	-0.20 99th	+0.39 82nd	+0.30 17th
Havoc allowed / created	13.8% 65th	17.1% 69th	11.5% 92nd	14.4% 29th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:05 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:05 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Kanoah Vinesett · NC State · PAAR 3.92 · 9 attempts
Cosme Salas · Duke · PAAR -0.12 · 5 attempts
Gavin Strange · Duke · PAAR 1.53 · 8 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

NC State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +5.5 · Snapshot spread: +4

First locally observed: +4.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence