Week 10 · 2026
Florida State at Boston College
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
Florida State
Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported) · 2026-10-09 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T17:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Ashton Daniels QB 3 games | 40.8% 42 / 103 plays | 57.7% 15 / 26 plays |
| Ousmane Kromah RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 37.5% 12 / 32 plays |
| Tre Wisner RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 37.9% 11 / 29 plays |
| Kevin Sperry QB 2 games | 33.3% 1 / 3 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Amari Thomas RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 54 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
A.J. Cottrill · LB
CFBD athlete 4837206
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Amari Thomas · RB
CFBD athlete 5372196
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kickReturns · AVG
- 19.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 21
- kickReturns · NO
- 3
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 57
- receiving · LONG
- 13
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 39
- receiving · YPR
- 9.8
- rushing · CAR
- 4
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 12
- rushing · YPC
- 3.0
Andre Otto · OL
CFBD athlete 5150844
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Antonio Cromartie Jr. · DB
CFBD athlete 5222701
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Ashlynd Barker · DB
CFBD athlete 5150837
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 22
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 47
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Ashton Daniels · QB
CFBD athlete 4838679
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 214
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 127
- passing · INT
- 11
- passing · PCT
- 0.593
- passing · TD
- 14
- passing · YDS
- 1968
- passing · YPA
- 9.2
- rushing · CAR
- 94
- rushing · LONG
- 81
- rushing · TD
- 12
- rushing · YDS
- 375
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Blake Nichelson · LB
CFBD athlete 4899480
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
CJ Richard Jr. · DB
CFBD athlete 5227705
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 30
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 53
Caleb Lavallee · LB
CFBD athlete 4921255
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 17
Charles Lester III · DB
CFBD athlete 5079566
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Chase Loftin · TE
CFBD athlete 5164345
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 10
- receiving · REC
- 3
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 24
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
Chris Jones · LB
CFBD athlete 5228122
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 6
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 30
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.0
- defensive · TOT
- 56
Daniel Hughes · P
CFBD athlete 5296606
- punting · In 20
- 8
- punting · LONG
- 65
- punting · NO
- 26
- punting · TB
- 0
- punting · YDS
- 1084
- punting · YPP
- 41.7
Daniel Lyons · DL
CFBD athlete 4685447
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 20
Darryll Desir · DL
CFBD athlete 5167701
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Deamontae Diggs · DL
CFBD athlete 4694352
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Deante McCray · DL
CFBD athlete 4837247
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4
- defensive · TOT
- 13
Desirrio Riles · TE
CFBD athlete 5160086
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 23
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 63
- receiving · YPR
- 9.0
Donny Hiebert · DB
CFBD athlete 5150841
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Duce Robinson · WR
CFBD athlete 4870922
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 75
- receiving · REC
- 24
- receiving · TD
- 4
- receiving · YDS
- 438
- receiving · YPR
- 18.3
- rushing · CAR
- 0
- rushing · LONG
- 0
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -12
- rushing · YPC
- 0
Ethan Post · P
CFBD athlete 5294073
- punting · In 20
- 1
- punting · LONG
- 48
- punting · NO
- 4
- punting · TB
- 1
- punting · YDS
- 173
- punting · YPP
- 43.3
Franklin Whitley · DL
CFBD athlete 5310760
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Gabe Panikowski · PK
CFBD athlete 5083549
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kicking · FGA
- 7
- kicking · FGM
- 7
- kicking · LONG
- 46
- kicking · PCT
- 1.000
- kicking · PTS
- 49
- kicking · XPA
- 28
- kicking · XPM
- 28
Ja'Bril Rawls · DB
CFBD athlete 5085388
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 23
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 34
Jalen Anderson · DL
CFBD athlete 5372197
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 3
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 11
Jarvis Boatwright Jr. · DB
CFBD athlete 5083703
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jasen Lopez · WR
CFBD athlete 5222974
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- puntReturns · AVG
- 9.6
- puntReturns · LONG
- 31
- puntReturns · NO
- 12
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 115
- receiving · LONG
- 41
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 108
- receiving · YPR
- 13.5
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 12
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 12
- rushing · YPC
- 12.0
Jayvan Boggs · WR
CFBD athlete 5164350
- receiving · LONG
- 40
- receiving · REC
- 21
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 415
- receiving · YPR
- 19.8
Jordan Crutchfield · DB
CFBD athlete 5203605
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jordan Sanders · DL
CFBD athlete 5083164
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 3
K.J. Kirkland · DB
CFBD athlete 4899348
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 12
Karon Maycock · LB
CFBD athlete 5172098
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Kevin Sperry · QB
CFBD athlete 5141661
- passing · ATT
- 5
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 3
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.600
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 21
- passing · YPA
- 4.2
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 2
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -8
- rushing · YPC
- -4.0
Kevin Wynn · DL
CFBD athlete 5155173
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Landen Thomas · TE
CFBD athlete 5079738
- receiving · LONG
- 22
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 41
- receiving · YPR
- 10.3
Ma'Khi Jones · DB
CFBD athlete 5144685
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 18
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 31
Mandrell Desir · DL
CFBD athlete 5167703
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 18
Max Redmon · DB
CFBD athlete 5141642
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
Micahi Danzy · WR
CFBD athlete 5088153
- kickReturns · AVG
- 16.6
- kickReturns · LONG
- 29
- kickReturns · NO
- 5
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 83
- receiving · LONG
- 56
- receiving · REC
- 23
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 401
- receiving · YPR
- 17.4
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 19
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 28
- rushing · YPC
- 9.3
Mikai Gbayor · LB
CFBD athlete 4683154
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 3
- defensive · SOLO
- 19
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 6
- defensive · TOT
- 35
Nehemiah Chandler · DB
CFBD athlete 5147679
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 10
- interceptions · AVG
- 3.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 3
Noah LaVallee · LB
CFBD athlete 5291010
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Omar Graham Jr. · LB
CFBD athlete 4808743
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.0
- defensive · TOT
- 40
Ousmane Kromah · RB
CFBD athlete 5141560
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 19
- receiving · REC
- 11
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 97
- receiving · YPR
- 8.8
- rushing · CAR
- 114
- rushing · LONG
- 54
- rushing · TD
- 5
- rushing · YDS
- 609
- rushing · YPC
- 5.3
Quindarrius Jones · DB
CFBD athlete 5075960
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 9
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 12
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Ricky Knight III · DB
CFBD athlete 5128063
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Rylan Kennedy · DL
CFBD athlete 5116973
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 6
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 9.5
- defensive · TOT
- 20
Samuel Singleton · RB
CFBD athlete 4870955
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kickReturns · AVG
- 32.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 46
- kickReturns · NO
- 4
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 128
- receiving · LONG
- 65
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 162
- receiving · YPR
- 20.3
- rushing · CAR
- 20
- rushing · LONG
- 20
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 73
- rushing · YPC
- 3.7
Sean Poret · OL
CFBD athlete 5216568
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- kickReturns · AVG
- 0.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 0
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 0
Tre Wisner · RB
CFBD athlete 4871076
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 48
- receiving · REC
- 17
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 201
- receiving · YPR
- 11.8
- rushing · CAR
- 51
- rushing · LONG
- 24
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 247
- rushing · YPC
- 4.8
Xavier Chaplin · OL
CFBD athlete 4870517
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Xavier Tiller · TE
CFBD athlete 5159053
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Zae Thomas · DB
CFBD athlete 5294071
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Zay Parks · RB
CFBD athlete 5218242
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- kickReturns · AVG
- 11.3
- kickReturns · LONG
- 16
- kickReturns · NO
- 3
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 34
Boston College
Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T17:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Mason McKenzie QB 3 games | 35.8% 24 / 67 plays | 55.2% 16 / 29 plays |
| Bo MacCormack III RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 56.4% 22 / 39 plays |
| Evan Dickens RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 46.2% 6 / 13 plays |
| Mekhi Dodd RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 46.2% 6 / 13 plays |
| Grayson Wilson QB 1 games | 0.0% 0 / 6 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
| Femi Babalola QB 1 games | 33.3% 2 / 6 plays | 0.0% 0 / 1 plays |
| Nolan Ray RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 3 / 3 plays |
| Jaedn Skeete WR 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 100.0% 1 / 1 plays |
Traditional season production · 63 players
Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Andy Quinn · PK
CFBD athlete 5250468
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Anthony Ferrucci · RB
CFBD athlete 5160640
- receiving · LONG
- 7
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 7
- receiving · YPR
- 7.0
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Anthony Palano · LB
CFBD athlete 5227820
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 34
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7.5
- defensive · TOT
- 69
- interceptions · AVG
- 3.0
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 6
Ashton Cunningham · DB
CFBD athlete 5216309
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 10
Bo MacCormack III · RB
CFBD athlete 5208592
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 12
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 50
- receiving · YPR
- 7.1
- rushing · CAR
- 58
- rushing · LONG
- 24
- rushing · TD
- 4
- rushing · YDS
- 268
- rushing · YPC
- 4.6
Bodie Kahoun · LB
CFBD athlete 5145122
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 17
Brady Clough · TE
CFBD athlete 5222676
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 16
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 61
- receiving · YPR
- 8.7
Bryce LaFollette · P
CFBD athlete 5100750
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- punting · In 20
- 3
- punting · LONG
- 51
- punting · NO
- 31
- punting · TB
- 5
- punting · YDS
- 1276
- punting · YPP
- 41.2
Cameron Martinez · DB
CFBD athlete 4431242
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Cameron McGee · DL
CFBD athlete 5222698
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Carter Davis · DB
CFBD athlete 4923220
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 30
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 46
- interceptions · AVG
- 2.0
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 4
Chandler Jordan · DB
CFBD athlete 5167181
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Charlie Comella · DB
CFBD athlete 5147375
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 24
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 32
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- interceptions · AVG
- 17.5
- interceptions · INT
- 4
- interceptions · TD
- 1
- interceptions · YDS
- 70
- puntReturns · AVG
- 1.6
- puntReturns · LONG
- 16
- puntReturns · NO
- 5
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 8
Chris Marable Jr. · DL
CFBD athlete 4917944
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Christian Hudson · DL
CFBD athlete 5148602
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Cooper Crook · LS
CFBD athlete 5222681
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Da'Jon Green · DB
CFBD athlete 5290506
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
Danny Edgehille · TE
CFBD athlete 5222675
- receiving · LONG
- 20
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 45
- receiving · YPR
- 11.3
Dawson Pough · WR
CFBD athlete 5214566
- receiving · LONG
- 78
- receiving · REC
- 13
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 204
- receiving · YPR
- 15.7
Demetrius Ballard · DE
CFBD athlete 5194641
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 4.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7.0
- defensive · TOT
- 23
E'Lla Boykin · DL
CFBD athlete 5280992
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 4.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7.0
- defensive · TOT
- 29
Evan Dickens · RB
CFBD athlete 5076122
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 43
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 114
- receiving · YPR
- 9.5
- rushing · CAR
- 66
- rushing · LONG
- 39
- rushing · TD
- 4
- rushing · YDS
- 296
- rushing · YPC
- 4.5
Favor Bate · DL
CFBD athlete 5225317
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Femi Babalola · QB
CFBD athlete 5276589
- passing · ATT
- 5
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 3
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.600
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 49
- passing · YPA
- 9.8
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 7
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 5
- rushing · YPC
- 2.5
Grayson Wilson · QB
CFBD athlete 5142236
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 5
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 2
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.400
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- -1
- passing · YPA
- -0.2
- rushing · CAR
- 3
- rushing · LONG
- 12
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 12
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Isaiah Farris · DB
CFBD athlete 4917124
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Israel Oladipupo · DL
CFBD athlete 5214511
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Jackson Wade · WR
CFBD athlete 5151897
- receiving · LONG
- 36
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 37
- receiving · YPR
- 18.5
Jaedn Skeete · WR
CFBD athlete 4871001
- receiving · LONG
- 24
- receiving · REC
- 10
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 96
- receiving · YPR
- 9.6
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 5
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 5
- rushing · YPC
- 5.0
Javarius Green · WR
CFBD athlete 5146747
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kickReturns · AVG
- 11.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 11
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 11
- receiving · LONG
- 30
- receiving · REC
- 28
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 308
- receiving · YPR
- 11.0
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 8
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
John Montague · WR
CFBD athlete 5222689
- receiving · LONG
- 32
- receiving · REC
- 13
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 219
- receiving · YPR
- 16.8
Jonathan Hewitt · PK
CFBD athlete 5291003
- kicking · FGA
- 0
- kicking · FGM
- 0
- kicking · LONG
- 0
- kicking · PCT
- 0
- kicking · PTS
- 0
- kicking · XPA
- 1
- kicking · XPM
- 0
Jordan Rodriguez · DB
CFBD athlete 5289155
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Josiah Griffin · DL
CFBD athlete 4921436
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Juan Zubal · LB
CFBD athlete 5091763
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Judah Pruitt · OL
CFBD athlete 5142797
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Justin Medlock · LB
CFBD athlete 4702789
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
KP Price · DB
CFBD athlete 4921446
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 37
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 60
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Kaelan Chudzinski · TE
CFBD athlete 5250264
- receiving · LONG
- 16
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 16
- receiving · YPR
- 16.0
Kameron Howard · DB
CFBD athlete 5101120
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Keith Sampson · DL
CFBD athlete 4871007
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Kemori Dixon · LB
CFBD athlete 5146821
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.0
- defensive · TOT
- 19
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Kris Jones · DE
CFBD athlete 5079477
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Landon Wright · WR
CFBD athlete 5144853
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 0
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 0
- passing · YPA
- 0.0
- receiving · LONG
- 69
- receiving · REC
- 8
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 208
- receiving · YPR
- 26.0
- rushing · CAR
- 2
- rushing · LONG
- 8
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 6
- rushing · YPC
- 3.0
Luca Lombardo · PK
CFBD athlete 5165482
- kicking · FGA
- 8
- kicking · FGM
- 6
- kicking · LONG
- 52
- kicking · PCT
- 0.750
- kicking · PTS
- 33
- kicking · XPA
- 17
- kicking · XPM
- 15
Makai Byerson · DL
CFBD athlete 5079361
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Marcelous Townsend · DB
CFBD athlete 5214943
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 4
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Marcus Upton · DB
CFBD athlete 5208002
- defensive · PD
- 5
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 34
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 51
- kickReturns · AVG
- 20.3
- kickReturns · LONG
- 30
- kickReturns · NO
- 4
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 81
Mason McKenzie · QB
CFBD athlete 5307005
- fumbles · FUM
- 5
- fumbles · LOST
- 2
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 201
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 116
- passing · INT
- 7
- passing · PCT
- 0.577
- passing · TD
- 8
- passing · YDS
- 1450
- passing · YPA
- 7.2
- rushing · CAR
- 132
- rushing · LONG
- 45
- rushing · TD
- 5
- rushing · YDS
- 638
- rushing · YPC
- 4.8
Max Tucker · DB
CFBD athlete 5085773
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 19
Mekhi Dodd · RB
CFBD athlete 5211163
- receiving · LONG
- 2
- receiving · REC
- 2
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- -1
- receiving · YPR
- -0.5
- rushing · CAR
- 15
- rushing · LONG
- 33
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 82
- rushing · YPC
- 5.5
Micah Amedee · DL
CFBD athlete 5209761
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3
- defensive · TOT
- 16
Michael Mankaka · DB
CFBD athlete 5081451
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Nedrick Boldin Jr. · WR
CFBD athlete 5203610
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- receiving · LONG
- 25
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 60
- receiving · YPR
- 12.0
Nolan Ray · RB
CFBD athlete 4921316
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 4
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 4
- receiving · YPR
- 4.0
- rushing · CAR
- 7
- rushing · LONG
- 13
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 42
- rushing · YPC
- 6.0
Onye Nwosisi · DL
CFBD athlete 5157579
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 10
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.0
- defensive · TOT
- 20
Rae Sykes Jr. · DB
CFBD athlete 5215279
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Reed Swanson · WR
CFBD athlete 5152600
- receiving · LONG
- 18
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 18
- receiving · YPR
- 18.0
Steve Klein · LB
CFBD athlete 5280932
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Syair Torrence · DB
CFBD athlete 5079730
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 5
TJ Green · DB
CFBD athlete 5209787
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 6
- kickReturns · AVG
- 20.4
- kickReturns · LONG
- 37
- kickReturns · NO
- 7
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 143
Zacari Thomas · LB
CFBD athlete 5215579
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 6
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Zeke Moore · TE
CFBD athlete 5077304
- receiving · LONG
- 37
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 63
- receiving · YPR
- 10.5
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
Boston College +6.5
EPA-OLS history for 7-14 point gaps: 46% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 97 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.
Florida State -6.5
DraftKings snapshot: Boston College +6.5
Boston College by 1.48
7.98 points toward Boston College versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Boston College.
- Fitted offset: +5.20
- Net EPA rating difference: -2.52
- Fitted home field: -1.20
Reconciles to 1.48 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs 1b038d76b92f1dea558c06e39e5ea484945a6118256da38899c1a7763dbd632c · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast dd95b0f7288cbe1b46dbef4e2ada237cf8e2448710dfabd2a8592193b69cfb9b · through week 9.
What changed?
7 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | +6.5 | +6.5 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | -1.48 | -1.48 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +7.98 | +7.98 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor Boston College; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
- Odds source SHA-256
- 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
- Odds source SHA-256
- d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c
Model context & pick method
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 1b038d76b92f1dea558c06e39e5ea484945a6118256da38899c1a7763dbd632c. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
Margins are not projected scores.
Pick logic
Boston College +6.5
Model gap +8.0 points
A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor Boston College.
Win probabilities · separate sources
Boston College win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 33%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Boston College +6.5
- Stacked ensemble
- 36%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Boston College.
- home adjusted epa: +10.42 (path difference 4.35)
- away adjusted success: -9.95 (path difference 0.99)
- home elo: -7.40 (path difference 0.63)
- home adjusted passing epa: -5.95 (path difference 0.58)
- home adjusted success allowed: +5.32 (path difference 2.19)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.97 (path difference 0.18)
- away talent: -4.95 (path difference 2.62)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +4.47 (path difference 1.48)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -4.44 (path difference 3.62)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +3.64 (path difference 1.12)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -3.62 (path difference 0.20)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: +2.87 (path difference 1.28)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +2.80 (path difference 0.72)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +2.68 (path difference 0.05)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +2.59 (path difference 0.69)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +2.59 (path difference 0.21)
- home talent: +2.26 (path difference 0.80)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -2.25 (path difference 1.18)
- away adjusted epa: -2.16 (path difference 0.79)
- home adjusted second level yards: -1.93 (path difference 1.29)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +1.61 (path difference 0.27)
- away adjusted second level yards: -1.37 (path difference 0.17)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +1.29 (path difference 0.06)
- home adjusted standard down success: +1.11 (path difference 1.21)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +1.05 (path difference 0.63)
- week: -1.04 (path difference 0.52)
- home adjusted open field yards: -1.03 (path difference 0.59)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +1.01 (path difference 0.19)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.93 (path difference 0.46)
- away adjusted line yards: -0.84 (path difference 0.33)
- home conference: -0.82 (path difference 0.07)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.62 (path difference 0.04)
- away conference: -0.60 (path difference 0.33)
- home adjusted passing down success: -0.60 (path difference 0.49)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: -0.60 (path difference 0.19)
- home adjusted success: -0.58 (path difference 0.15)
- home adjusted line yards: +0.56 (path difference 0.24)
- away adjusted standard down success: +0.56 (path difference 0.53)
- away adjusted open field yards: -0.54 (path difference 1.30)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -0.52 (path difference 0.39)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.48 (path difference 0.50)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.45 (path difference 0.46)
- away elo: +0.39 (path difference 0.41)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.38 (path difference 0.30)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.36 (path difference 0.00)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: +0.25 (path difference 0.46)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.23 (path difference 0.45)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: -0.23 (path difference 0.45)
- away adjusted success allowed: +0.21 (path difference 0.42)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.18 (path difference 0.03)
- away adjusted passing epa: -0.17 (path difference 0.18)
- away adjusted epa allowed: +0.16 (path difference 0.02)
- away adjusted passing down success: -0.10 (path difference 0.00)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.04 (path difference 0.02)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.03 (path difference 0.01)
Reconciles to 36.47 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs 0de07510c4b48cfd555318883fa379bb7a293b35e8602832baa14f4dd388e7c9 · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast c70d761facbc53283e9d40ddef82941f99425c17a18a04269084df75b223359e · through week 9.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.
Florida State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 96 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ashton DanielsCFBD athlete 4838679 Week 6 vs Louisville: 12 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 77.8% success · 0.682 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Miami: 8 attempts · 2.1 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.492 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Clemson: 13 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 45.5% success · 0.074 raw PPA. | 33 | 3.6 | 7 | 34.4% | 87 / 4.0 |
Ousmane KromahCFBD athlete 5141560 Week 6 vs Louisville: 19 attempts · 4.6 YPC · 52.6% success · 0.112 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Miami: 13 attempts · 3.1 YPC · 15.4% success · -0.779 raw PPA. | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | 33.3% | 111 / 5.0 |
Tre WisnerCFBD athlete 4871076 Week 6 vs Louisville: 7 attempts · 2.9 YPC · 42.9% success · 0.031 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Miami: 9 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 44.4% success · -0.614 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Clemson: 13 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 30.8% success · -0.181 raw PPA. | 29 | 4.3 | 0 | 30.2% | 51 / 4.8 |
Kevin SperryCFBD athlete 5141661 Week 7 vs Miami: 1 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.161 raw PPA. | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1.0% | 2 / -4.0 |
Amari ThomasCFBD athlete 5372196 Week 9 vs Clemson: 1 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.249 raw PPA. | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1.0% | 4 / 3.0 |
Boston College
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 111 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bo MacCormack IIICFBD athlete 5208592 Week 7 vs Pittsburgh: 11 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 36.4% success · -0.359 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Georgia Tech: 20 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 70.0% success · 0.587 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Duke: 8 attempts · 2.1 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.762 raw PPA. | 39 | 5.3 | 0 | 35.1% | 57 / 4.6 |
Mason McKenzieCFBD athlete 5307005 Week 7 vs Pittsburgh: 8 attempts · 0.9 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.107 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Georgia Tech: 16 attempts · 10.6 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.851 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Duke: 12 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.472 raw PPA. | 36 | 5.4 | 7 | 32.4% | 128 / 4.9 |
Evan DickensCFBD athlete 5076122 Week 7 vs Pittsburgh: 13 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 46.2% success · -0.120 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Georgia Tech: 1 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.287 raw PPA. | 14 | 3.6 | 0 | 12.6% | 63 / 4.4 |
Mekhi DoddCFBD athlete 5211163 Week 7 vs Pittsburgh: 3 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.181 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Georgia Tech: 5 attempts · 6.6 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.137 raw PPA. Week 9 vs Duke: 5 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.520 raw PPA. | 13 | 3.8 | 0 | 11.7% | 15 / 5.5 |
Nolan RayCFBD athlete 4921316 Week 8 vs Georgia Tech: 3 attempts · 12.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.259 raw PPA. | 3 | 12.0 | 0 | 2.7% | 7 / 6.0 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | Boston CollegeOffense | Florida StateDefense | Florida StateOffense | Boston CollegeDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | -0.00 10th | +0.16 18th | +0.18 65th | +0.04 64th |
| Success rate | 40.7% 32nd | 41.2% 45th | 43.1% 58th | 40.2% 56th |
| Explosiveness | 1.20 34th | 1.35 11th | 1.38 96th | 1.19 62nd |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.00 24th | +0.12 18th | +0.01 28th | +0.02 53rd |
| Passing-down PPA/play | -0.01 4th | +0.25 34th | +0.59 100th | +0.09 76th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 18.2% 9th | 14.8% 35th | 15.0% 46th | 17.1% 69th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:00 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:00 AM CST
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.
- Gabe Panikowski · Florida State · PAAR 5.53 · 7 attempts
- Luca Lombardo · Boston College · PAAR 0.06 · 8 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
Boston College spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: +6.5 · Snapshot spread: +6.5
First locally observed: +6.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 51.5 · Snapshot total: 52.5
Total · First locally observed: 52.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +200 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +210 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -245 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -258 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: +6.5 · Snapshot spread: +6.5
First locally observed: +6.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 52 · Snapshot total: 52.5
Total · First locally observed: 52 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +210 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +210 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -250 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -250 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: f47e17bb763e93498c8e692f9a5e057fd2d1d524ba9cf3f94dff5a9e9ddc5ccb
Boston College
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.0 · 9 rated weeks · ACC
Florida State
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.0 · 9 rated weeks · ACC
Travel
Florida State travels 1,097 miles (longer than 75% of road trips, 2017–2025) · no time-zone change.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
Florida State leads 16–6 in 22 meetings since 1957.
- 2024Boston College at Florida State28–13 · Boston College
- 2023Florida State at Boston College31–29 · Florida State
- 2022Boston College at Florida State14–44 · Florida State
- 2021Florida State at Boston College26–23 · Florida State
- 2019Florida State at Boston College38–31 · Florida State
- 2018Boston College at Florida State21–22 · Florida State
CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.