Record
3-5 wins–losses
No rank assigned
Results earned. Wins and losses do not account for opponent strength or victory margin.
2026, provider Week 10; captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00
SP+ workbook recordFlorida State
2026 season
ACC
2026 preseason report
Historical preseason snapshot from 2026-07-29, including roster context and illustrative season projections. This is not a live injury feed.
What every system says
Florida State's rank in each system (1 = best). Middle rank 55 across 8 systems; best 41, worst 77, so they disagree by 36 places.
- Lab EPA
- #64
- Through week 92026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
- Lab SRS
- #50
- down 132026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 9 · built 2026-11-06T12:26:24.430328+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
- SP+
- #50
- up 42026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 10 · captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
- Elo
- #53
- down 52026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9 · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- FPI
- #41
- down 42026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- CORE
- #77
- up 4 · Through week 9 · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:002026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9 · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- CFBD SRS
- #57
- down 132026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
- WEPA
- #64
- down 12026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Event cutoff not supplied · captured 2026-11-06T12:01:15.459089+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
FPI context
ESPN FPI via CFBD · 2026
Résumé and schedule
Results earned and schedule difficulty
- Strength of record
- #74 of 138
- Schedule strength
- #12 of 138
- Remaining schedule strength
- #58 of 138
- Game control
- #38 of 138
Unit efficiency
Performance by unit
- Overall
- #48 of 138
- Offense
- #19 of 138
- Defense
- #93 of 138
- Special teams
- #78 of 138
Ranks calculated among rated FBS teams; ties share rank. #1 means strongest résumé, hardest schedule, best game control or highest efficiency. These are separate measures, not a combined forecast. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST. FPI supplies no results-through week; capture time records when we received it.
Why the ratings disagree
Florida State · 2026. Each system answers a different question. The cards show each source's rank (published or computed here) and coverage, so a rank gap can also reflect which teams have data.
Descriptive EPA
0.004 net EPA/play
#64
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams · Through week 9. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
Observed per-play efficiency after opponent adjustment. FBS-vs-FBS plays; no preseason strength prior. Sparse schedules can produce sharp early movement.
2026, through CFBD Week 9; opponent adjusted ridge
Lab EPA from CFBD playsLocal predictive SRS
4.01 points
#50 · Down 13 places since the previous CFBD cutoff
2026 · 138 FBS roster teams, including prior-only teams · Through week 9 · built 2026-11-06T12:26:24.430328+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings take separate places, ordered by team name.
This season's 8 games, with recent games counting a bit more: average margin +1.46 (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) against opponents averaging +3.12, schedule #17 of 138 (#1 = toughest); 1 FCS opponent counts at −25; FBS opponents alone average +7.03. That is worth +4.58 on its own; the preseason prior of +2.07 still carries 23% of the weight, giving +4.01.
How each game enters this SRS rating
Florida State · 2026, through CFBD Week 9. Margins are team minus opponent. The fit caps margins and treats overtime as a one-point result before adjusting for venue. Recent games carry more weight; the fit share includes the preseason prior in its denominator.
| Game | Raw margin → transformed | Venue adjustment | Recency weight | Fit share | Opponent rating | Margin term | Opponent term | Total term |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 · New Mexico State home · 2026-08-29 · ID 401864570 | +17.00 → +17.00 | -2.50 | 0.7349 | 8.39% | -10.12 | 1.216 | -0.848 | 0.368 |
| Week 1 · SMU home · 2026-09-07 · ID 401858212 | -3.00 → -3.00 | -2.50 | 0.7349 | 8.39% | +6.27 | -0.461 | 0.526 | 0.065 |
| Week 3 · Alabama away · 2026-09-19 · ID 401856685 | -14.00 → -14.00 | +2.50 | 0.7937 | 9.06% | +18.35 | -1.042 | 1.662 | 0.621 |
| Week 4 · Central Arkansas home · 2026-09-26 · ID 401858237 | +27.00 → +27.00 | -2.50 | 0.8249 | 9.41% | -25.00 (fixed lower division) | 2.306 | -2.353 | -0.047 |
| Week 5 · Virginia home · 2026-10-03 · ID 401858253 | +31.00 → +31.00 | -2.50 | 0.8572 | 9.78% | +0.54 | 2.788 | 0.053 | 2.841 |
| Week 6 · Louisville away · 2026-10-09 · ID 401858254 | -24.00 → -24.00 | +2.50 | 0.8909 | 10.17% | +10.31 | -2.186 | 1.048 | -1.138 |
| Week 7 · Miami away · 2026-10-17 · ID 401858263 | -8.00 → -1.00 (OT) | +2.50 | 0.9259 | 10.57% | +18.22 | 0.158 | 1.926 | 2.084 |
| Week 9 · Clemson home · 2026-10-31 · ID 401858280 | -12.00 → -12.00 | -2.50 | 1.0000 | 11.41% | +3.46 | -1.655 | 0.394 | -1.260 |
Game terms +3.53 points; prior term +0.47 points. Their unrounded sum is the fitted rating +4.01 points. The preseason prior is +2.07 with 22.83% of the fit weight. Displayed values are rounded; the producer checks the unrounded identity within 0.00000001 points.
These are additive terms of the current fit, not the effect of removing a game. Opponent ratings already reflect the connected schedule. Lower-division opponents use the fixed anchor, not an individually fitted rating. The rating's model-based 95% band is ±8.8 points; this decomposition does not reduce uncertainty or assign causal effects.
Download fitted terms and source hashesEstimated strength from schedule-adjusted scoring margins, margin caps, home-field adjustment and recency weighting. Half of prior-season strength, including postseason, carries forward with two games of weight. SRS includes FCS opponents under a fixed strength assumption. 8 current games; prior available.
2026, through CFBD Week 9; generated 2026-11-06T12:26:24.430328+00:00
Lab SRS from CFBD scoresExternal SP+
4.8 SP+ points
#50 · Up 4 places
2026 · 138 published SP+ teams · Provider week 10 · captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Published provider ranks; tie handling is not documented in this snapshot.
Bill Connelly's published predictive strength estimate. Its method and scale differ from local SRS.
2026, provider Week 10; captured 2026-11-02T14:10:13.208713+00:00
Bill Connelly SP+ workbookExternal CORE
-2.66 net points per 100 offensive + 100 defensive plays
#77 of 138 by overall (ranked here; CORE publishes no rank)
2026 · 138 rated FBS teams in this CORE board · 2026, through regular Week 9; model core-v1; captured 2026-11-06T12:03:20.826325+00:00. Rank 1 is best; lower rank numbers are better. Higher rating values are better. Equal ratings share the best tied rank; the next rank skips places.
CFBD's context- and opponent-relative efficiency. Offense is higher-better; defense is points allowed above average, so lower is better; overall is offense minus defense. It counts only pass and rush plays from FBS-vs-FBS games, with no special teams, overtime or garbage time; early-week values are pulled toward average but are still uncertain, and it is not a résumé ranking. Its scale is not comparable to EPA, SRS or SP+. Offense 5.49 on 439 plays; defense 8.15 on 448 plays.
2026, through regular Week 9; model core-v1; captured 2026-11-06T12:03:20.826325+00:00
CFBD CORE ratingCORE board: offense vs defenseEPA ranks Florida State 14 places lower than local SRS at the matched cutoff. This identifies a disagreement; it does not isolate its cause. SP+ movement compares provider weeks 9 and 10. Provider weeks may differ from CFBD weeks, so no cross-provider rank gap is calculated. CORE reports its own inclusive cutoff and is shown beside these systems for comparison only; it is an external research rating and is never blended into the lab's opponent-adjusted EPA, local SRS or any pick.
Team ratings and rank gaps are not matchup spreads or win probabilities. Matchup context and a calibrated forecast mapping are required. Do not average EPA, SRS, SP+ and CORE values across their different scales.
Read local SRS assumptions and forecast evidenceProgram context
2026 · CFBD records, polls, recruiting, coaches- Record
- 3-5 · conf 1-4 · home 3-2 · away 0-3 · expected wins 3.5
- Polls (Week 10)
- unranked
- CFP latest
- unranked · 2026 regular Week 10 · captured 2026-11-06
- CFP final
- not published
- Against the spread
- 2026: 3-4-1 ATS (-2.9 avg) · 2025: 5-7 ATS (-0.8 avg)
- Head coach
- Mike Norvell · hired 2019-12-07 · 20-18 over 4 captured seasons
- Recruiting classes
- 2024 #12 (272 pts) · 2025 #19 (244 pts) · 2026 #16 (252 pts)
- Returning
- 40% of production · 31% of usage
Passing, receiving and rushing detail
Category Production Usage Passing 13% 6% Receiving 65% 55% Rushing 28% 33% Shares of prior-season PPA and usage returning in each category. Missing values are unavailable.
Provider values from CFBD captures dated 2026-09-22, 2026-11-06. head coach for the season; tenure counts cover only the captured seasons, hire date is the provider's. Returning usage carries no signal beyond returning production in this repo's research; neither is a model input.
Recruiting by position group
2023–2026 classes · High school · CFBD · captured 2026-11-06 UTC
| Position group | Commits | Avg. stars | Avg. rating | Total rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive Back | 13 | 3.62 | 0.9098 | 11.83 |
| Defensive Line | 17 | 3.59 | 0.8992 | 15.29 |
| Linebacker | 10 | 3.20 | 0.8814 | 8.81 |
| Offensive Line | 16 | 3.31 | 0.8785 | 14.06 |
| Quarterback | 6 | 3.67 | 0.8978 | 5.39 |
| Receiver | 16 | 3.69 | 0.9070 | 14.51 |
| Running Back | 4 | 4.00 | 0.9275 | 3.71 |
| Special Teams | 11 | 3.64 | 0.8876 | 9.76 |
Recruiting class aggregates, not current roster strength. Commits count recruits across the window; total rating also reflects class size. JUCO, prep-school and transfer ratings are excluded. These values do not enter the prediction model.
Player efficiency and usage
2026 · observed 2026-11-06 UTCPassing and rushing WEPA adjust efficiency for opponents. Kicker PAAR measures points added above replacement. Higher is better within each metric. Metric rows are ordered by sample size, followed by usage-only players. Usage is the share of team plays involving the player within each category; categories overlap and should not be added. CFBD definitions
| Player / history | Metric | Value | Plays / attempts | Overall usage | Usage detail | Recruiting |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ashton Daniels · QBCFBD athlete 4838679. Auburn (2025–2025); Stanford (2022–2024); Florida State (2026–2026) | Passing WEPA | 0.437 | 220 | 57.5% | Pass 96.2% · Rush 25.4%1st 51.3% · 2nd 54.5% · 3rd 76.8% Standard downs 52.8% · Passing downs 69.1% | 2022: 3★ · 0.8600 |
Ousmane Kromah · RBCFBD athlete 5141560. Florida State (2025–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.098 | 103 | 27.1% | Pass 6.5% · Rush 44.9%1st 31.9% · 2nd 26.7% · 3rd 15.7% Standard downs 31.0% · Passing downs 17.6% | 2025: 4★ · 0.9622 |
Ashton Daniels · QBCFBD athlete 4838679. Auburn (2025–2025); Stanford (2022–2024); Florida State (2026–2026) | Rushing WEPA | 0.545 | 78 | 57.5% | Pass 96.2% · Rush 25.4%1st 51.3% · 2nd 54.5% · 3rd 76.8% Standard downs 52.8% · Passing downs 69.1% | 2022: 3★ · 0.8600 |
Tre Wisner · RBCFBD athlete 4871076. Florida State (2026–2026); Texas (2023–2025) | Rushing WEPA | 0.057 | 43 | 15.7% | Pass 9.6% · Rush 22.1%1st 15.6% · 2nd 20.0% · 3rd 10.6% Standard downs 15.7% · Passing downs 15.5% | 2023: 3★ · 0.8869 |
Gabe Panikowski · PKCFBD athlete 5083549. Sacramento State (2022–2022); Florida State (2026–2026); Oklahoma State (2025–2025); Idaho State (2024–2024) | Kicker PAAR | 5.530 | 7 | — | Pass — · Rush —1st — · 2nd — · 3rd — Standard downs — · Passing downs — | 2024: stars unavailable |
Amari Thomas · RBCFBD athlete 5372196. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 4.5% | Pass 5.2% · Rush 4.3%1st 4.3% · 2nd 6.9% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 3.0% · Passing downs 9.1% | Not linked |
Chase Loftin · TECFBD athlete 5164345. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.5% | Pass 2.9% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 1.2% · 3rd 5.6% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 4.9% | Not linked |
Desirrio Riles · TECFBD athlete 5160086. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.8% | Pass 5.8% · Rush 0.0%1st 4.1% · 2nd 1.9% · 3rd 1.7% Standard downs 2.7% · Passing downs 3.2% | Not linked |
Duce Robinson · WRCFBD athlete 4870922. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 8.8% | Pass 19.7% · Rush 0.0%1st 7.6% · 2nd 7.8% · 3rd 13.1% Standard downs 8.4% · Passing downs 10.1% | Not linked |
Greyson Labiad · TECFBD athlete 5294076. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 1.3% | Pass 2.4% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 4.0% · 3rd 0.0% Standard downs 1.8% · Passing downs 0.0% | Not linked |
Jasen Lopez · WRCFBD athlete 5222974. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 4.1% | Pass 8.0% · Rush 0.6%1st 3.9% · 2nd 2.9% · 3rd 5.3% Standard downs 4.3% · Passing downs 3.4% | Not linked |
Jayvan Boggs · WRCFBD athlete 5164350. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 6.8% | Pass 14.9% · Rush 0.0%1st 6.2% · 2nd 6.2% · 3rd 9.4% Standard downs 5.2% · Passing downs 10.9% | Not linked |
Kevin Sperry · QBCFBD athlete 5141661. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 3.7% | Pass 6.5% · Rush 1.1%1st 2.2% · 2nd 3.3% · 3rd 8.6% Standard downs 3.7% · Passing downs 3.5% | Not linked |
Landen Thomas · TECFBD athlete 5079738. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.6% | Pass 5.7% · Rush 0.0%1st 2.1% · 2nd 3.7% · 3rd 2.8% Standard downs 2.5% · Passing downs 2.9% | Not linked |
Micahi Danzy · WRCFBD athlete 5088153. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 6.3% | Pass 12.8% · Rush 1.1%1st 7.1% · 2nd 5.4% · 3rd 6.1% Standard downs 7.5% · Passing downs 3.4% | Not linked |
Samuel Singleton · RBCFBD athlete 4870955. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 14.5% | Pass 10.7% · Rush 18.0%1st 11.8% · 2nd 20.0% · 3rd 14.3% Standard downs 12.9% · Passing downs 18.0% | Not linked |
Teriq Mallory · WRCFBD athlete 5209709. Team attribution from the captured season usage record. | Not available | — | — | 2.0% | Pass 5.0% · Rush 0.0%1st 0.0% · 2nd 0.0% · 3rd 20.0% Standard downs 0.0% · Passing downs 7.7% | Not linked |
Transfers
Incoming · 22 reported
| Player | From | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Daniels · QB | Auburn | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Bradyn Joiner · IOL | Purdue | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| CJ Richard Jr. · S | Illinois State | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Carter Jula · P | UNLV | 2026-01-19 | — / — | Immediate |
| Chimdia Nwaiwu · OT | Stephen F. Austin | 2026-01-10 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Chris Jones · LB | Southern Miss | 2026-01-15 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Conor McAneney · K | Quincy | 2026-01-16 | 3★ / 0.8000 | Immediate |
| Daniel Hughes · P | New Mexico | 2026-01-08 | — / — | Immediate |
| Dean DeNobile · QB | Lafayette | 2026-01-16 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| Desirrio Riles · TE | East Carolina | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Gabe Panikowski · K | Oklahoma State | 2026-01-16 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Gemari Sands · RB | Florida Atlantic | 2026-01-16 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Jordan Sanders · DL | Texas State | 2026-01-17 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Karson Hobbs · CB | Notre Dame | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Ma'Khi Jones · S | Duke | 2026-01-12 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Mikai Gbayor · LB | North Carolina | 2026-01-15 | 4★ / 0.9100 | Immediate |
| Nate Pabst · OT | Bowling Green | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Nehemiah Chandler · CB | South Alabama | 2026-01-03 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Paul Bowling · IOL | Troy | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Quintrevion Wisner · RB | Texas | 2026-01-05 | 4★ / 0.9300 | Immediate |
| Rylan Kennedy · EDGE | Texas A&M | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Xavier Chaplin · OT | Auburn | 2026-01-09 | 4★ / 0.9200 | Immediate |
Outgoing · 44 reported
| Player | To | Date | Stars / rating | Eligibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amaree Williams · EDGE | Mississippi State | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / 0.8800 | Immediate |
| Ashlynd Barker · S | Not reported | 2025-12-28 | 4★ / 0.9300 | Immediate |
| Brock Glenn · QB | Western Kentucky | 2026-01-08 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Brunno Reus · K | Missouri | 2026-01-13 | 3★ / 0.8000 | Immediate |
| Cai Bates · CB | Wisconsin | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Camdon Frier · WR | Tarleton State | 2026-02-04 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Darryll Desir · EDGE | Not reported | 2026-01-16 | 4★ / 0.9400 | Withdrawn |
| Earl Little Jr. · S | Ohio State | 2026-01-11 | 4★ / 0.9300 | Immediate |
| Edwin Joseph · S | Ole Miss | 2026-01-10 | 4★ / 0.9200 | Immediate |
| Elijah Moore · WR | Syracuse | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Gav Holman · LB | Mississippi State | 2026-01-19 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Gavin Sawchuk · RB | Northwestern | 2026-01-19 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Ja'Bril Rawls · CB | Not reported | 2025-12-16 | 4★ / 0.9400 | Immediate |
| Ja'Elyne Matthews · OT | Mississippi State | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Jaden Jones · EDGE | Missouri | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Jake Weinberg · K | Miami | 2026-01-17 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| James Williams · EDGE | Oklahoma State | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Jamorie Flagg · DL | Florida International | 2026-01-17 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Jayden Parrish · LB | Memphis | 2026-01-13 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Jaylen King · QB | Mercer | 2026-02-04 | 3★ / 0.8300 | Immediate |
| Jaylin Lucas · RB | Tulane | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Jayson Jenkins · EDGE | Mississippi State | 2026-01-05 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Jayvan Boggs · WR | Not reported | 2025-12-27 | 3★ / 0.8900 | Immediate |
| Josh Raymond · IOL | Georgia Southern | 2026-01-18 | 3★ / 0.8400 | Immediate |
| Justin Cryer · LB | Texas | 2026-01-09 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| KJ Sampson · DL | Boston College | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Kam Davis · RB | Liberty | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Kevin Wynn · DL | Not reported | 2026-01-14 | 4★ / — | Withdrawn |
| L A Jessie Harrold · EDGE | UCF | 2026-01-13 | 3★ / 0.8700 | Immediate |
| Landen Thomas · TE | Not reported | 2025-12-22 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Lawayne McCoy · WR | Louisville | 2026-01-11 | 4★ / 0.9200 | Immediate |
| Lucas Simmons · OT | Wisconsin | 2026-01-07 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Luke Douglas · TE | App State | 2026-01-09 | — / — | Immediate |
| Mac Chiumento · P | Texas | 2026-01-05 | — / — | Immediate |
| Manasse Itete · IOL | Arkansas State | 2026-01-10 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Mandrell Desir · EDGE | Not reported | 2026-01-16 | 4★ / 0.9600 | Withdrawn |
| Mario Nash Jr. · OT | Mississippi State | 2026-01-06 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Omar Graham Jr. · LB | Not reported | 2025-12-16 | 4★ / 0.9100 | Immediate |
| Randy Pittman Jr. · TE | SMU | 2026-01-11 | 3★ / 0.8800 | Immediate |
| Shamar Arnoux · CB | Auburn | 2026-01-12 | 3★ / 0.8600 | Immediate |
| Thomas Castellanos · QB | Texas Tech | 2026-08-21 | 3★ / — | Immediate |
| Tye Hylton · OT | Louisiana Tech | 2026-01-21 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Tyeland Coleman · DL | Arkansas State | 2026-01-13 | 3★ / 0.8500 | Immediate |
| Willy Suarez · WR | Indiana State | 2026-01-08 | — / — | Immediate |
Transfer observations can include unresolved destinations. CFBD supplies no timezone for transfer dates and no athlete ID linking these records to the efficiency table. These observations do not establish current roster membership or game availability.
Descriptive context only; no player or transfer value enters the prediction model. Adjusted metrics require unambiguous season/team history. Usage-only rows use the captured athlete ID and team; conflicting usage identities are omitted. Missing values are unavailable, not zero. Provider coverage is incomplete.
Coaching eras
Continuous appointments at Florida State. Records are CFBD-attributed results; active tenures and the current season may be incomplete.
Mike Norvell · career 76–50 across 11 seasons and 2 schools
Tenure timeline · 13 appointments
2020–present · Mike Norvell · active at capture
38–34 · 72 attributed games · 7 seasons
Hired 2019-12-07. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2019–2019 · Odell Haggins
2–2 · 4 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Exact effective dates unavailable.
2018–2019 · Willie Taggart
9–12 · 21 attributed games · 2 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2017-12-05. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2017–2017 · Odell Haggins
2–0 · 2 attributed games · 1 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2017-12-01. Exact effective dates unavailable.
2010–2017 · Jimbo Fisher
83–23 · 106 attributed games · 8 seasons · incomplete attribution
Hired 2010-01-05. Exact effective dates unavailable.
1976–2009 · Bobby Bowden
315–98–4 · 417 attributed games · 34 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1974–1975 · Darrell Mudra
4–18 · 22 attributed games · 2 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1971–1973 · Larry Jones
15–19 · 34 attributed games · 3 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1960–1970 · Bill Peterson
62–42–11 · 115 attributed games · 11 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1959–1959 · Perry Moss
4–6 · 10 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1953–1958 · Thomas Nugent
34–28–1 · 63 attributed games · 6 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1948–1952 · Don Veller
31–12–1 · 44 attributed games · 5 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
1947–1947 · Ed Williamson
0–5 · 5 attributed games · 1 seasons
Exact effective dates unavailable.
Season résumé · 2015–2026
Coach-attributed records appear beside team-season ratings, recruiting and poll context. Shared seasons appear once per coach; rows are not assigned to individual stints. Ratings describe team performance, not a causal coaching effect.
| Season / coach | Record | Conference | Postseason | SP+ | SRS | Recruiting rank | Final poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 · Mike Norvell · incomplete attribution | 0–0 | — | — | 4.9 | 6.7 | 16 | — |
| 2025 · Mike Norvell | 5–7 | 2–6 | 0–0 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 19 | — |
| 2024 · Mike Norvell | 2–10 | 1–7 | 0–0 | -3.2 | -6.7 | 12 | — |
| 2023 · Mike Norvell | 13–1 | 9–0 | 0–1 | 19.4 | 19.6 | 19 | 6 |
| 2022 · Mike Norvell | 10–3 | 5–3 | 1–0 | 13.2 | 14.1 | 20 | 11 |
| 2021 · Mike Norvell | 5–7 | 4–5 | 0–0 | 7.6 | 4 | 22 | — |
| 2020 · Mike Norvell | 3–6 | 2–6 | 0–0 | -4.9 | — | 22 | — |
| 2019 · Odell Haggins · incomplete attribution | 2–2 | — | — | 1.8 | 0.2 | 19 | — |
| 2019 · Willie Taggart · incomplete attribution | 4–5 | — | — | 1.8 | 0.2 | 19 | — |
| 2018 · Willie Taggart | 5–7 | 3–5 | 0–0 | 1.4 | -2.8 | 11 | — |
| 2017 · Jimbo Fisher · incomplete attribution | 5–6 | — | — | 22.8 | 10.1 | 6 | — |
| 2017 · Odell Haggins · incomplete attribution | 2–0 | — | — | 22.8 | 10.1 | 6 | — |
| 2016 · Jimbo Fisher | 10–3 | 5–3 | 1–0 | 24 | 17.5 | 3 | 8 |
| 2015 · Jimbo Fisher | 10–3 | 6–2 | 0–1 | 23.2 | 15.8 | 3 | 14 |
Source: CFBD · captured 2026-10-26T02:02:59.394463+00:00 UTC. Season résumé covers 2015–2026; timeline spans all returned tenures. — means unavailable. Career summaries cover active coaches at capture. This snapshot is descriptive and is not a pregame cutoff.
CFBD season overview
2026 stored season snapshot, including postseason and garbage time. Raw CFBD PPA is not opponent-adjusted EPA or player WEPA. No week cutoff; these values do not enter our forecasts.
Captured 2026-11-02 13:51:41.272114 UTC · Source data
Stat rankings
CFBD FBS ranks · source updated 2026-11-01 14:06:52 UTC · calculated 2026-11-02 13:47:25 UTC · provider cache expiry 2026-11-02 13:57:25 UTC. Rank 1 is best; percentiles use CFBD’s 0–100 scale.
| Statistic | Offense rank / population | Percentile | Defense rank / population | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA / play | 49 / 138 | 65.0 | 113 / 138 | 18.2 |
| Success rate | 59 / 138 | 57.7 | 77 / 138 | 44.5 |
| Explosiveness | 7 / 138 | 95.6 | 123 / 138 | 10.9 |
| Standard-down success | 101 / 138 | 27.0 | 89 / 138 | 35.8 |
| Passing-down success | 18 / 138 | 87.6 | 63 / 138 | 54.7 |
| Pass PPA | 48 / 138 | 65.7 | 97 / 138 | 29.9 |
| Rush PPA | 30 / 138 | 78.8 | 105 / 138 | 24.1 |
| Pass explosiveness | 3 / 138 | 98.5 | 106 / 138 | 23.4 |
| Rush explosiveness | 55 / 138 | 60.6 | 118 / 138 | 14.6 |
| Line yards | 18 / 138 | 87.6 | 104 / 138 | 24.8 |
| Second-level yards | 41 / 138 | 70.8 | 71 / 138 | 48.9 |
| Open-field yards | 62 / 138 | 55.5 | 129 / 138 | 6.6 |
| Stuff rate | 17 / 138 | 88.3 | 89 / 138 | 35.8 |
| Power success | 110 / 138 | 20.4 | T77 / 138 | 44.2 |
| Havoc | T75 / 138 | 45.6 | T89 / 138 | 35.0 |
| Front-seven havoc | T63 / 138 | 51.8 | T72 / 138 | 46.0 |
| DB havoc | T85 / 138 | 37.2 | T83 / 138 | 38.7 |
| Points / opportunity | 37 / 138 | 73.7 | 57 / 138 | 59.1 |
| Average field position | T104 / 138 | 24.5 | T63 / 138 | 51.8 |
| Field-position expected points | 107 / 138 | 22.6 | 71 / 138 | 48.9 |
Player PPA and usage
Ordered by overall usage. Open a player for pass, rush, down and situation splits. Usage is the provider’s share of team plays in each situation; PPA is the provider’s average or total for that player. Missing values stay blank (—); play counts are not supplied here. Standard downs are 1st down, 2nd-and-7 or shorter, and 3rd/4th-and-4 or shorter; other situations are passing downs.
Ashton Daniels · QBUsage 57.5% · Avg PPA 0.308 · Total 92.056
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.308 | 92.056 | 57.5% |
| Pass | 0.317 | 71.283 | 96.2% |
| Rush | 0.610 | 42.114 | 25.4% |
| 1st down | 0.023 | 2.772 | 51.3% |
| 2nd down | 0.521 | 47.376 | 54.5% |
| 3rd down | 0.579 | 43.996 | 76.8% |
| Standard downs | 0.082 | 16.110 | 52.8% |
| Passing downs | 0.737 | 75.947 | 69.1% |
Ousmane Kromah · RBUsage 27.1% · Avg PPA 0.043 · Total 5.320
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.043 | 5.320 | 27.1% |
| Pass | 0.137 | 1.787 | 6.5% |
| Rush | 0.032 | 3.533 | 44.9% |
| 1st down | 0.023 | 1.508 | 31.9% |
| 2nd down | 0.243 | 9.465 | 26.7% |
| 3rd down | 0.704 | 9.861 | 15.7% |
| Standard downs | -0.075 | -7.594 | 31.0% |
| Passing downs | 0.561 | 12.914 | 17.6% |
Tre Wisner · RBUsage 15.7% · Avg PPA 0.110 · Total 7.784
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.110 | 7.784 | 15.7% |
| Pass | 0.637 | 12.748 | 9.6% |
| Rush | -0.097 | -4.964 | 22.1% |
| 1st down | -0.257 | -8.478 | 15.6% |
| 2nd down | 0.448 | 12.986 | 20.0% |
| 3rd down | 0.364 | 3.276 | 10.6% |
| Standard downs | -0.109 | -5.584 | 15.7% |
| Passing downs | 0.668 | 13.368 | 15.5% |
Samuel Singleton · RBUsage 14.5% · Avg PPA 0.483 · Total 13.997
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.483 | 13.997 | 14.5% |
| Pass | 1.489 | 13.400 | 10.7% |
| Rush | 0.030 | 0.597 | 18.0% |
| 1st down | -0.344 | -3.445 | 11.8% |
| 2nd down | 0.116 | 1.502 | 20.0% |
| 3rd down | 2.657 | 15.939 | 14.3% |
| Standard downs | 0.075 | 1.355 | 12.9% |
| Passing downs | 1.149 | 12.642 | 18.0% |
Duce Robinson · WRUsage 8.8% · Avg PPA 0.419 · Total 19.273
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.419 | 19.273 | 8.8% |
| Pass | 0.419 | 19.273 | 19.7% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.246 | 4.434 | 7.6% |
| 2nd down | 0.753 | 9.786 | 7.8% |
| 3rd down | 0.475 | 6.176 | 13.1% |
| Standard downs | 0.176 | 5.469 | 8.4% |
| Passing downs | 0.920 | 13.804 | 10.1% |
Jayvan Boggs · WRUsage 6.8% · Avg PPA 0.848 · Total 26.302
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.848 | 26.302 | 6.8% |
| Pass | 0.848 | 26.302 | 14.9% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.185 | 2.400 | 6.2% |
| 2nd down | 1.756 | 15.803 | 6.2% |
| 3rd down | 0.630 | 5.037 | 9.4% |
| Standard downs | 0.264 | 4.484 | 5.2% |
| Passing downs | 1.558 | 21.819 | 10.9% |
Micahi Danzy · WRUsage 6.3% · Avg PPA 0.690 · Total 22.775
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.690 | 22.775 | 6.3% |
| Pass | 0.704 | 21.125 | 12.8% |
| Rush | 0.550 | 1.651 | 1.1% |
| 1st down | 0.974 | 16.559 | 7.1% |
| 2nd down | -0.144 | -1.299 | 5.4% |
| 3rd down | 0.938 | 5.630 | 6.1% |
| Standard downs | 0.729 | 20.415 | 7.5% |
| Passing downs | 0.472 | 2.360 | 3.4% |
Amari Thomas · RBUsage 4.5% · Avg PPA 0.234 · Total 1.872
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.234 | 1.872 | 4.5% |
| Pass | 0.700 | 2.801 | 5.2% |
| Rush | -0.232 | -0.929 | 4.3% |
| 1st down | 0.153 | 0.613 | 4.3% |
| 2nd down | 0.315 | 1.259 | 6.9% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | 0.153 | 0.613 | 3.0% |
| Passing downs | 0.315 | 1.259 | 9.1% |
Jasen Lopez · WRUsage 4.1% · Avg PPA 0.213 · Total 2.766
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.213 | 2.766 | 4.1% |
| Pass | 0.222 | 2.668 | 8.0% |
| Rush | 0.098 | 0.098 | 0.6% |
| 1st down | 0.111 | 0.665 | 3.9% |
| 2nd down | 0.338 | 1.013 | 2.9% |
| 3rd down | 1.760 | 5.279 | 5.3% |
| Standard downs | -0.073 | -0.732 | 4.3% |
| Passing downs | 1.166 | 3.498 | 3.4% |
Kevin Sperry · QBUsage 3.7% · Avg PPA -0.219 · Total -1.534
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.219 | -1.534 | 3.7% |
| Pass | -0.229 | -1.373 | 6.5% |
| Rush | -0.161 | -0.161 | 1.1% |
| 1st down | -1.530 | -3.061 | 2.2% |
| 2nd down | -0.230 | -0.460 | 3.3% |
| 3rd down | 0.663 | 1.988 | 8.6% |
| Standard downs | -0.375 | -1.877 | 3.7% |
| Passing downs | 0.172 | 0.343 | 3.5% |
Desirrio Riles · TEUsage 2.8% · Avg PPA 0.208 · Total 1.868
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.208 | 1.868 | 2.8% |
| Pass | 0.208 | 1.868 | 5.8% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | 0.411 | 2.466 | 4.1% |
| 2nd down | -0.194 | -0.388 | 1.9% |
| 3rd down | -0.210 | -0.210 | 1.7% |
| Standard downs | 0.411 | 2.466 | 2.7% |
| Passing downs | -0.199 | -0.598 | 3.2% |
Landen Thomas · TEUsage 2.6% · Avg PPA 0.202 · Total 1.816
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.202 | 1.816 | 2.6% |
| Pass | 0.202 | 1.816 | 5.7% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | -0.048 | -0.143 | 2.1% |
| 2nd down | -0.105 | -0.418 | 3.7% |
| 3rd down | 1.189 | 2.377 | 2.8% |
| Standard downs | 0.260 | 1.559 | 2.5% |
| Passing downs | 0.086 | 0.258 | 2.9% |
Teriq Mallory · WRUsage 2.0% · Avg PPA -0.470 · Total -0.470
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.470 | -0.470 | 2.0% |
| Pass | -0.470 | -0.470 | 5.0% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 3rd down | -0.470 | -0.470 | 20.0% |
| Standard downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Passing downs | -0.470 | -0.470 | 7.7% |
Chase Loftin · TEUsage 1.5% · Avg PPA 0.855 · Total 3.419
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0.855 | 3.419 | 1.5% |
| Pass | 0.855 | 3.419 | 2.9% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | -0.347 | -0.347 | 1.2% |
| 3rd down | 1.255 | 3.766 | 5.6% |
| Standard downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Passing downs | 0.855 | 3.419 | 4.9% |
Greyson Labiad · TEUsage 1.3% · Avg PPA -0.413 · Total -0.413
| Split | Average PPA | Total PPA | Usage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.413 | -0.413 | 1.3% |
| Pass | -0.413 | -0.413 | 2.4% |
| Rush | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 1st down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| 2nd down | -0.413 | -0.413 | 4.0% |
| 3rd down | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
| Standard downs | -0.413 | -0.413 | 1.8% |
| Passing downs | — | 0.000 | 0.0% |
2026 · Through provider Week 9. Each metric uses only published FBS teams with a numeric value. Higher percentile is better; tied values receive the midpoint of their positions, rounded to a whole percentile. Missing values are unranked.
Values and percentiles
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense PPA/play | 0.180 | 65th138 teams | higher |
| Offense success rate | 0.431 | 58th138 teams | higher |
| Offense explosiveness | 1.383 | 96th138 teams | higher |
| Offense pass PPA/play | 0.280 | 66th138 teams | higher |
| Offense rush PPA/play | 0.174 | 79th138 teams | higher |
| Defense PPA/play | 0.161 | 18th138 teams | lower |
| Defense success rate | 0.412 | 45th138 teams | lower |
| Defense explosiveness | 1.347 | 11th138 teams | lower |
| Defense havoc created | 0.148 | 35th138 teams | higher |
Passing profile
2026 · CFBD passing family · raw PPACaptured 2026-11-06. Offense: 90% of 219 attempts charted. Average depth of target 10.4 yards (87th percentile of FBS). Yards after catch 8.1 per completion. Completion 59.4%, 9.1 yards per attempt, pass PPA 0.33.
| Side | Actual | Expected | CPOE (pp) | Qualifying / all attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 59.1% | 59.2% | -0.1 | 176 / 219 |
| Defense allowed | 61.1% | 60.5% | +0.6 | 185 / 254 |
Actual and expected use the same qualifying attempts, which can be fewer than all passes. CPOE is their difference in percentage points (pp); higher is better on offense, lower allowed is better on defense. CFBD models FBS-vs-FBS passes, excluding spikes, throwaways, intentional grounding and attempts without air yards. — means unavailable; small samples have fewer than 40 qualifying attempts.
138 teams with at least 40 charted attempts. The highlighted point is Florida State.
Highlighted bars are deep zones. Shares are of located attempts only.
Defense and rushing detail
| Side | Attempts | Charted | ADOT | YAC | Comp % | PPA | CPOE | CPOE att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 219 | 90% | 10.4 | 8.1 | 59.4% | 0.33 | -0.1 pp | 176 |
| Passing defense | 254 | 85% | 8.7 | 5.3 | 61.8% | 0.34 | +0.6 pp | 185 |
Rushing production
| Side | Attempts | Yards / carry | Success | PPA | Line yards / rush | Second-level yards / rush | Open-field yards / rush | Stuff rate | Power success |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 291 | 4.4 | 46.2% | 0.20 | 3.40 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 11.7% | 65.6% |
| Defense allowed | 303 | 4.8 | 42.4% | 0.16 | 3.30 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 14.0% | 71.9% |
Second-level yards are gained 5–10 yards past the line; open-field yards are beyond 10. These are provider per-rush averages, not totals. Power success measures success with two or fewer yards needed. Exact line-metric and power-success denominators are not supplied in this feed.
Rushing sample and attribution
| Side | Yards recorded | Individual | Unattributed | Sacks | Kneels | Team rushes | Multiple carriers | Direction located / eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 285 / 291 | 279 | 12 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 225 / 266 · 84.6% |
| Defense allowed | 300 / 303 | 287 | 16 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 240 / 271 · 88.6% |
Counts are attempts. Team totals include sacks, kneels, team-only rushes and unresolved attribution; these categories can overlap and must not be summed. Direction coverage uses ordinary direction-eligible rushes, not all attempts. Missing fields in older captures remain unavailable.
Raw provider values, no opponent adjustment; not model inputs. CFBD metric definitions.
Game-by-game passing and rushing
2026 · Passing CPOE · percentage points. Dashed line: season -0.1 pp. 6 of 8 captured games have this metric. Missing observations break the line.
CPOE is completion percentage over expected on qualifying FBS-vs-FBS attempts; positive means more completions than expected. PPA is raw provider PPA. These are game observations, not opponent-adjusted forecasts. P labels postseason weeks.
Game log and attempt coverage
| Week | Opponent | Pass att | CPOE att | Comp %* | Expected %* | CPOE | ADOT | Pass PPA | Rush att | Rush yds/carry | Rush PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | SMU | 23 | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0.36 | 44 | 3.0 | 0.07 |
| W1 | New Mexico State | 27 | 27 | 63.0% | 63.5% | -0.6 pp | 6.3 | 0.27 | 39 | 5.6 | 0.46 |
| W3 | Alabama | 29 | 29 | 58.6% | 53.3% | +5.3 pp | 14.7 | 0.31 | 35 | 2.7 | 0.16 |
| W4 | Central Arkansas | 20 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.5 | 0.61 | 28 | 6.4 | 0.43 |
| W5 | Virginia | 19 | 19 | 63.2% | 65.0% | -1.8 pp | 8.4 | 0.28 | 46 | 6.1 | 0.53 |
| W6 | Louisville | 38 | 38 | 55.3% | 60.4% | -5.2 pp | 8.2 | -0.00 | 38 | 4.2 | 0.24 |
| W7 | Miami | 30 | 30 | 53.3% | 57.8% | -4.5 pp | 12.7 | 0.63 | 34 | 3.8 | -0.35 |
| W9 | Clemson | 33 | 33 | 63.6% | 57.4% | +6.2 pp | 11.9 | 0.33 | 27 | 3.4 | -0.07 |
*Completion and expected rates use the same CPOE-eligible attempts. ADOT uses available air-yard attempts; a game needs at least one. No missing family is filled with the other family’s data.
Punting and returns
2026 season to date · CFBD · captured 2026-11-06T12:25:52.746993+00:00. Descriptive totals, including postseason when present.
Our punts
30 punts · 41.9 gross yards/punt · 38.7 net yards/punt
5 inside the 20 · 1 touchbacks · 0 blocked
Known gross yards: 30/30 punts. Known net yards: 21/30 punts.
Our punt returns
13 returns · 10.1 yards/return · 0 touchdowns
0 muffs · 0 opponent punts blocked
Known return yards: 13/13 returns. Return totals include team-only and unattributed plays.
Recent games
| Game | Punts | Gross yd/punt | Net yd/punt | Known net yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 9 · Clemson | 5 | 31.8 | 36.3 | 3/5 |
| Week 7 · Miami | 4 | 43.3 | 38.5 | 2/4 |
| Week 6 · Louisville | 5 | 40.0 | 33.0 | 4/5 |
| Week 5 · Virginia | 5 | 47.2 | 35.3 | 3/5 |
| Week 4 · Central Arkansas | 1 | 49.0 | — | 0/1 |