Week 9 · 2026
New Mexico at San José State
Visual game report
Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.
Player production & success
CFBD regular season · through week 8 · observed 2026-10-30 UTC. Captured before kickoff.
Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.
New Mexico
Window: 2026-10-25 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-03 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T20:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Toa Faavae QB 3 games | 49.0% 24 / 49 plays | 36.4% 8 / 22 plays |
| Scottre Humphrey RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 37.8% 14 / 37 plays |
| Kiefer Sibley RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 36.4% 12 / 33 plays |
| James Laubstein QB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 75.0% 6 / 8 plays |
| Darrion Bowers RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 16.7% 1 / 6 plays |
| Cameron Mathews RB 1 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 50.0% 3 / 6 plays |
| Luke Moga QB 1 games | 25.0% 1 / 4 plays | — 0 / 0 plays |
| Deshaun Buchanan RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.0% 1 / 4 plays |
Traditional season production · 64 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Ahahvea Robinson · DT
CFBD athlete 5151515
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Albert Tuakalau · DE
CFBD athlete 5388845
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Austin Brawley · S
CFBD athlete 5083308
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 2
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 26
- interceptions · AVG
- 44.0
- interceptions · INT
- 3
- interceptions · TD
- 2
- interceptions · YDS
- 132
- puntReturns · AVG
- 28.0
- puntReturns · LONG
- 28
- puntReturns · NO
- 1
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 28
Azariah Levells · CB
CFBD athlete 5231749
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Bailen George · WR
CFBD athlete 5326947
- kickReturns · AVG
- 2.0
- kickReturns · LONG
- 2
- kickReturns · NO
- 1
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 2
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 1
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 1.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 35
- passing · YPA
- 35.0
- receiving · LONG
- 68
- receiving · REC
- 13
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 262
- receiving · YPR
- 20.2
Brett Karhu · DE
CFBD athlete 5220449
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 4.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7.0
- defensive · TOT
- 20
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 0
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 0
- receiving · YPR
- 0.0
Brian Booker · DT
CFBD athlete 5096990
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 13
C.J. Johnson · LB
CFBD athlete 5121532
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
CJ McBean · S
CFBD athlete 5265515
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 23
- interceptions · AVG
- 20.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 20
Cade Keith · TE
CFBD athlete 5219572
- receiving · LONG
- 42
- receiving · REC
- 20
- receiving · TD
- 2
- receiving · YDS
- 265
- receiving · YPR
- 13.3
Caden Beck · LS
CFBD athlete 5296592
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Cameron Mathews · RB
CFBD athlete 5295363
- kickReturns · AVG
- 22.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 30
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 45
- rushing · CAR
- 20
- rushing · LONG
- 54
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 149
- rushing · YPC
- 7.5
Charles Steinkamp · P
CFBD athlete 5092308
- punting · In 20
- 3
- punting · LONG
- 76
- punting · NO
- 6
- punting · TB
- 1
- punting · YDS
- 276
- punting · YPP
- 46.0
Clay Martineau · LB
CFBD athlete 5149176
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 17
DJ Darling · WR
CFBD athlete 5282659
- receiving · LONG
- 36
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 132
- receiving · YPR
- 22.0
Darren Agu · DE
CFBD athlete 4807124
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 5
- defensive · SACKS
- 4
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 9.5
- defensive · TOT
- 26
Darrion Bowers · RB
CFBD athlete 5265474
- rushing · CAR
- 19
- rushing · LONG
- 23
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 74
- rushing · YPC
- 3.9
Deshaun Buchanan · RB
CFBD athlete 5165109
- rushing · CAR
- 10
- rushing · LONG
- 30
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 77
- rushing · YPC
- 7.7
Deven Dyer · DT
CFBD athlete 5084196
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Dorian Patterson · WR
CFBD athlete 5323149
- receiving · LONG
- 6
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 6
- receiving · YPR
- 6.0
Drew Speech · S
CFBD athlete 5228812
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4
- defensive · TOT
- 19
Elijah Brody · DE
CFBD athlete 5228794
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 8
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Eric McClain · CB
CFBD athlete 5194657
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 7
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Frankie Edwards · CB
CFBD athlete 5229948
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 12
- interceptions · AVG
- 11.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 11
Grant Glasgow · PK
CFBD athlete 5122287
- kicking · FGA
- 10
- kicking · FGM
- 6
- kicking · LONG
- 49
- kicking · PCT
- 0.600
- kicking · PTS
- 47
- kicking · XPA
- 29
- kicking · XPM
- 29
Hayes Baum · LB
CFBD athlete 5327575
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Jack Burzynski · DE
CFBD athlete 5296607
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jahmir Torres · CB
CFBD athlete 5209307
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 13
- interceptions · AVG
- 21.0
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 42
Jake Devos · DT
CFBD athlete 5265649
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 1
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 2
Jalen Charles · DE
CFBD athlete 5149264
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Jalen McIver · DT
CFBD athlete 5296604
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.5
- defensive · TOT
- 10
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
James Laubstein · QB
CFBD athlete 5228804
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 0
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 0
- passing · YPA
- 0.0
- rushing · CAR
- 20
- rushing · LONG
- 14
- rushing · TD
- 5
- rushing · YDS
- 88
- rushing · YPC
- 4.4
Jaxton Eck · LB
CFBD athlete 5165108
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 4.0
- defensive · TOT
- 25
- interceptions · AVG
- 1.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 1
Jayden Flaker · LB
CFBD athlete 5095820
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 3.5
- defensive · TOT
- 22
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Jayden Sheridan · CB
CFBD athlete 4879407
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Jerod Terry Jr. · RB
CFBD athlete 5271114
- rushing · CAR
- 5
- rushing · LONG
- 12
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 38
- rushing · YPC
- 7.6
John Sierra · DE
CFBD athlete 5193662
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Joshua Barnes · CB
CFBD athlete 5223945
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Kader Diop · WR
CFBD athlete 5228799
- receiving · LONG
- 0
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 0
- receiving · YPR
- 0.0
Kevin Longstreet · S
CFBD athlete 5151022
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 17
Kiefer Sibley · RB
CFBD athlete 5146726
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 32
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 57
- receiving · YPR
- 9.5
- rushing · CAR
- 68
- rushing · LONG
- 36
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 383
- rushing · YPC
- 5.6
Luke Moga · QB
CFBD athlete 5122887
- passing · ATT
- 38
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 23
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.605
- passing · TD
- 3
- passing · YDS
- 248
- passing · YPA
- 6.5
- rushing · CAR
- 6
- rushing · LONG
- 3
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- -11
- rushing · YPC
- -1.8
Marco Beltran Jr. · S
CFBD athlete 5327582
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- kickReturns · AVG
- 22.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 25
- kickReturns · NO
- 2
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 45
- puntReturns · AVG
- 15.6
- puntReturns · LONG
- 44
- puntReturns · NO
- 17
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 265
Marcus Stevens · DE
CFBD athlete 5296596
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Massiah Mingo · WR
CFBD athlete 5181311
- receiving · LONG
- 21
- receiving · REC
- 7
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 83
- receiving · YPR
- 11.9
- rushing · CAR
- 1
- rushing · LONG
- 4
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 4
- rushing · YPC
- 4.0
Mercury Swaim · LB
CFBD athlete 5088352
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 4
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 21
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 6.5
- defensive · TOT
- 43
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Michael Kern · P
CFBD athlete 5089328
- punting · In 20
- 8
- punting · LONG
- 66
- punting · NO
- 22
- punting · TB
- 1
- punting · YDS
- 915
- punting · YPP
- 41.6
Miles Williams · WR
CFBD athlete 5084027
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 19
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 35
- receiving · YPR
- 8.8
Nicholas Romero · PK
CFBD athlete 5302600
- kicking · FGA
- 1
- kicking · FGM
- 0
- kicking · LONG
- 0
- kicking · PCT
- 0.000
- kicking · PTS
- 4
- kicking · XPA
- 4
- kicking · XPM
- 4
Nick Barber · DT
CFBD athlete 5388854
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Nick Wheeler · S
CFBD athlete 5265505
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 11
Ormanie Arnold · CB
CFBD athlete 5083172
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 8
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 14
- interceptions · AVG
- 1.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 1
Ricklan Holmes II · LB
CFBD athlete 5209409
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Scottre Humphrey · RB
CFBD athlete 5166161
- fumbles · FUM
- 1
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- receiving · LONG
- 8
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 8
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
- rushing · CAR
- 95
- rushing · LONG
- 49
- rushing · TD
- 9
- rushing · YDS
- 453
- rushing · YPC
- 4.8
Tavian Combs · S
CFBD athlete 4612991
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 12
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 28
- interceptions · AVG
- 10.8
- interceptions · INT
- 4
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 43
Toa Faavae · QB
CFBD athlete 5261479
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 1
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 87
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 49
- passing · INT
- 4
- passing · PCT
- 0.563
- passing · TD
- 4
- passing · YDS
- 787
- passing · YPA
- 9.0
- receiving · LONG
- 35
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 35
- receiving · YPR
- 35.0
- rushing · CAR
- 63
- rushing · LONG
- 41
- rushing · TD
- 2
- rushing · YDS
- 245
- rushing · YPC
- 3.9
Trent Rocker · DE
CFBD athlete 5388843
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Trey Moore · TE
CFBD athlete 5388850
- receiving · LONG
- 13
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 13
- receiving · YPR
- 13.0
Tripp Walsh · TE
CFBD athlete 5150694
- receiving · LONG
- 5
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 5
- receiving · YPR
- 5.0
Troy Omeire · WR
CFBD athlete 4430827
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- receiving · LONG
- 64
- receiving · REC
- 6
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 112
- receiving · YPR
- 18.7
Will Hicks · S
CFBD athlete 5226456
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Xavier Rivera-Rogers · S
CFBD athlete 5326950
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Xavier Slayton · DT
CFBD athlete 5083183
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 3
- defensive · SACKS
- 2
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 9
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Zhaiel Smith · WR
CFBD athlete 5296587
- receiving · LONG
- 38
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 57
- receiving · YPR
- 14.3
San José State
Window: 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported) · 2026-10-10 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-10-31T20:00:00+00:00.
| Player | Passing | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Weaver QB 2 games | 52.0% 26 / 50 plays | 57.1% 4 / 7 plays |
| Daniel Rolovich QB 2 games | 32.1% 9 / 28 plays | 50.0% 4 / 8 plays |
| Viliami Teu RB 3 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 34.4% 11 / 32 plays |
| Jabari Bates RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 25.9% 7 / 27 plays |
| Robert McDaniel QB 1 games | 12.5% 2 / 16 plays | 0.0% 0 / 3 plays |
| Isaiah Carlson RB 2 games | — 0 / 0 plays | 66.7% 4 / 6 plays |
Traditional season production · 53 players
Provider totals through week 8, captured 2026-10-30. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.
Aizik Mahuka · LB
CFBD athlete 5229951
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 3.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 6.5
- defensive · TOT
- 21
Anthony Ivey · WR
CFBD athlete 4685396
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- fumbles · FUM
- 3
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- puntReturns · AVG
- 5.5
- puntReturns · LONG
- 33
- puntReturns · NO
- 13
- puntReturns · TD
- 0
- puntReturns · YDS
- 72
- receiving · LONG
- 46
- receiving · REC
- 12
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 235
- receiving · YPR
- 19.6
Auma Jennings · DL
CFBD athlete 5388997
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Brady Van Bennekum · LB
CFBD athlete 5151346
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Brian Dukes · S
CFBD athlete 5083138
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 35
Caleb Womack · CB
CFBD athlete 5113022
- defensive · PD
- 2
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 38
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 54
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Carson Clark · WR
CFBD athlete 5161012
- receiving · LONG
- 63
- receiving · REC
- 47
- receiving · TD
- 5
- receiving · YDS
- 551
- receiving · YPR
- 11.7
Cayden Woolwine · LB
CFBD athlete 5225443
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Champ Kapanui · LB
CFBD athlete 5167315
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 0
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Charles Cox III · S
CFBD athlete 5296615
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Cody Hall · WR
CFBD athlete 5161386
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Cooper Hoch · WR
CFBD athlete 5151342
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 1
- receiving · LONG
- 51
- receiving · REC
- 23
- receiving · TD
- 3
- receiving · YDS
- 338
- receiving · YPR
- 14.7
Daniel Rolovich · QB
CFBD athlete 5215357
- passing · ATT
- 26
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 12
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.462
- passing · TD
- 1
- passing · YDS
- 193
- passing · YPA
- 7.4
- rushing · CAR
- 10
- rushing · LONG
- 24
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 37
- rushing · YPC
- 3.7
Dejon Roney · DL
CFBD athlete 4685536
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 2
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Dominique McKenzie · WR
CFBD athlete 5219662
- kickReturns · AVG
- 21.5
- kickReturns · LONG
- 54
- kickReturns · NO
- 11
- kickReturns · TD
- 0
- kickReturns · YDS
- 236
- receiving · LONG
- 47
- receiving · REC
- 5
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 105
- receiving · YPR
- 21.0
Dylan Aguilera · LS
CFBD athlete 5083860
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
Dylan Lee · LB
CFBD athlete 5125470
- defensive · PD
- 4
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 4
- defensive · SOLO
- 38
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 6.0
- defensive · TOT
- 71
- interceptions · AVG
- 0.0
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 0
Ethan Powell · LB
CFBD athlete 5082592
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 2.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 26
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.0
- defensive · TOT
- 36
Etu Finau · DL
CFBD athlete 5231018
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 11
Greco Carrillo · CB
CFBD athlete 5220597
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 10
- interceptions · AVG
- 7.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 7
Ian Shewell · DL
CFBD athlete 4612402
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0.5
- defensive · TOT
- 4
Isaiah Buxton · CB
CFBD athlete 5127723
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 14
Isaiah Carlson · RB
CFBD athlete 4870662
- receiving · LONG
- 2
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 2
- receiving · YPR
- 2.0
- rushing · CAR
- 16
- rushing · LONG
- 16
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- 62
- rushing · YPC
- 3.9
Jabari Bates · RB
CFBD athlete 4685254
- receiving · LONG
- 30
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 86
- receiving · YPR
- 9.6
- rushing · CAR
- 131
- rushing · LONG
- 26
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 586
- rushing · YPC
- 4.5
Jase Nix · WR
CFBD athlete 5214408
- receiving · LONG
- 27
- receiving · REC
- 9
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 94
- receiving · YPR
- 10.4
Jayden Robertson · CB
CFBD athlete 5224389
- defensive · PD
- 5
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 13
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 17
- interceptions · AVG
- 12.5
- interceptions · INT
- 2
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 25
Jayland McGlothen · DL
CFBD athlete 5225861
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 6.0
- defensive · SOLO
- 16
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 7.0
- defensive · TOT
- 26
Jeremiah Tuiileila · DL
CFBD athlete 5238038
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 9
- defensive · SACKS
- 3.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 11
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 6.5
- defensive · TOT
- 22
- fumbles · FUM
- 0
- fumbles · LOST
- 0
- fumbles · REC
- 1
Jerry Mcclure · WR
CFBD athlete 4920229
- receiving · LONG
- 28
- receiving · REC
- 30
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 294
- receiving · YPR
- 9.8
John Norwood · LB
CFBD athlete 5113020
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Jordan Anderson · WR
CFBD athlete 5079299
- receiving · LONG
- 39
- receiving · REC
- 13
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 130
- receiving · YPR
- 10.0
Joseph Harbert · OL
CFBD athlete 5082598
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Justin Stearns · DL
CFBD athlete 4875542
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 6
- defensive · SACKS
- 4
- defensive · SOLO
- 20
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 5.5
- defensive · TOT
- 30
Kamaehu Kopa-Kaawalauole · TE
CFBD athlete 5151350
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 2
- receiving · LONG
- 10
- receiving · REC
- 4
- receiving · TD
- 1
- receiving · YDS
- 18
- receiving · YPR
- 4.5
Kejuan Bullard · CB
CFBD athlete 4906882
- defensive · PD
- 1
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Luke Weaver · QB
CFBD athlete 5295238
- fumbles · FUM
- 2
- fumbles · LOST
- 2
- fumbles · REC
- 0
- passing · ATT
- 219
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 138
- passing · INT
- 6
- passing · PCT
- 0.630
- passing · TD
- 11
- passing · YDS
- 1620
- passing · YPA
- 7.4
- rushing · CAR
- 54
- rushing · LONG
- 12
- rushing · TD
- 1
- rushing · YDS
- 80
- rushing · YPC
- 1.5
Malachi Riley · WR
CFBD athlete 4870994
- receiving · LONG
- 8
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 8
- receiving · YPR
- 8.0
Malakai Hoeft · LB
CFBD athlete 5220602
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 3
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Mathias Brown · PK
CFBD athlete 5220616
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Naseri Danielson · LB
CFBD athlete 5160961
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 30
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 1.5
- defensive · TOT
- 61
- interceptions · AVG
- 6.0
- interceptions · INT
- 1
- interceptions · TD
- 0
- interceptions · YDS
- 6
Nassir Pitters · S
CFBD athlete 5220606
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 3
Nate Lewis · DL
CFBD athlete 4701313
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2
- defensive · TOT
- 8
Noa Siaosi · DL
CFBD athlete 5155561
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 2
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Pierce Walker · S
CFBD athlete 5225589
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 7
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 9
Robert McDaniel · QB
CFBD athlete 5205684
- passing · ATT
- 13
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 6
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.462
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 48
- passing · YPA
- 3.7
- rushing · CAR
- 6
- rushing · LONG
- 6
- rushing · TD
- 0
- rushing · YDS
- -13
- rushing · YPC
- -2.2
Runye Norton · CB
CFBD athlete 5296609
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 4
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 6
Solomone Langi · DL
CFBD athlete 5296617
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 1.5
- defensive · SOLO
- 5
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.0
- defensive · TOT
- 15
Tama Amisone · WR
CFBD athlete 5296610
- passing · ATT
- 1
- passing · COMPLETIONS
- 0
- passing · INT
- 0
- passing · PCT
- 0.000
- passing · TD
- 0
- passing · YDS
- 0
- passing · YPA
- 0.0
- receiving · LONG
- 0
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- -2
- receiving · YPR
- -2.0
Trajan Sinatra · PK
CFBD athlete 5298628
- kicking · FGA
- 18
- kicking · FGM
- 14
- kicking · LONG
- 49
- kicking · PCT
- 0.778
- kicking · PTS
- 57
- kicking · XPA
- 15
- kicking · XPM
- 15
Trent Carrizosa · P
CFBD athlete 5085193
- punting · In 20
- 16
- punting · LONG
- 70
- punting · NO
- 46
- punting · TB
- 3
- punting · YDS
- 2013
- punting · YPP
- 43.8
Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa · S
CFBD athlete 5296616
- defensive · PD
- 3
- defensive · QB HUR
- 1
- defensive · SACKS
- 1
- defensive · SOLO
- 28
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 2.5
- defensive · TOT
- 45
Tyler Jacklich · RB
CFBD athlete 5125784
- defensive · PD
- 0
- defensive · QB HUR
- 0
- defensive · SACKS
- 0
- defensive · SOLO
- 1
- defensive · TD
- 0
- defensive · TFL
- 0
- defensive · TOT
- 1
Viliami Teu · RB
CFBD athlete 5151338
- receiving · LONG
- 2
- receiving · REC
- 1
- receiving · TD
- 0
- receiving · YDS
- 2
- receiving · YPR
- 2.0
- rushing · CAR
- 44
- rushing · LONG
- 67
- rushing · TD
- 3
- rushing · YDS
- 286
- rushing · YPC
- 6.5
Pregame weather
Decision-time forecast unavailable
No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.
Weather context
Weather record unavailable
Evidence cutoff: . This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.
No matching weather context has been published for this game.
- Verified pregame availability
- Unavailable
- Measurement units
- Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
- Forecast issue time
- Unavailable
- Forecast valid time
- Unavailable
Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.
Latest published card · In-season model
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.
San José State +14.75
EPA-OLS history for 7-14 point gaps: 46% against the spread · below the 52.4% break-even at −110 · 97 games · 2025 · historical reference, not a cover probability.
New Mexico -14.75
DraftKings snapshot: San José State +14.5
Book quote differs from the comparison line.
New Mexico by 5.60
9.15 points toward San José State versus the spread. The gap is not a cover probability.
Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast
Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately
Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward San José State.
- Net EPA rating difference: -9.54
- Fitted offset: +5.87
- Fitted home field: -1.93
Reconciles to -5.60 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.
Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.
Fit 43a90c4d579143e4336475325da6c037c0829278871c947a48303983b181ca72 · inputs 142cc9a668444c7c85e9c04c807e71b7e7e365acf81ea3139a2c88a2cb87311e · training 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517 · forecast 8e654e5a31da3cf7caff629b07612749387cb318289a9562ea25093cc755c978 · through week 8.
What changed?
12 saved cards for this gameNo change in spread, forecast or model gap.
The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.
Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.
| Recorded value | Earlier | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market spread | +14.75 | +14.75 | 0.0 |
| Model spread | +5.6 | +5.6 | 0.0 |
| Model gap | +9.15 | +9.15 | 0.0 |
Negative spreads favor San José State; positive model gap favors them too.
Capture times & sources
Earlier saved card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Latest published card
Generated
Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured
In-season model · rating source as of unknown
Model gap = market spread minus model spread.
This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.
Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.
- Earlier saved card SHA-256
- e2870225a3550ae3bff530e07f507a37ae8d297571a1fb3ae0be6cba56aae72d
- Odds source SHA-256
- c3afde8edfd04c38da42b18ab61b68542f93145177f25e3612c5230361aae058
- Latest published card SHA-256
- 907219f79e16b585a5fe31cf6748ec05ab06f7cd820077da867137c7509faba4
- Odds source SHA-256
- 979caa9e279ac4fb8cf2a315090127f7866efb485202ff3448873ffea01f6148
Model context & pick method
Card generated . Captured prices are not live quotes.
- Output:
- Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
- Model:
- EPA-OLS
- Training:
- 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8; 229 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 23b0a5e046b1642293a7d76a29578220ba636326b7a25d8f5c4c0c677ceb7517. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Features:
- EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 142cc9a668444c7c85e9c04c807e71b7e7e365acf81ea3139a2c88a2cb87311e. Private linear fit 24e16edeb0e225c9643d804d9c379274ecb1387bfe9a5f2c07e1a216f6d28656; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
- Evaluation:
- EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.
Training: 229 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8.
Training-only RMSE: 15.64 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.
Margins are not projected scores.
Pick logic
San José State +14.75
Model gap +9.2 points
A pick needs a gap of at least 3.0 points, either way. Positive gaps favor San José State.
Win probabilities · separate sources
San José State win probability by source
- EPA-OLS calibrated win probability
- Unavailable
- Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
- CFBD market-based probability
- 15%
- Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:02:01 CDT; CFBD source spread: San José State +15
- Stacked ensemble
- 31%
- Stacked ensemble from the model pack
Explain this StackedEnsemble probability
Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.
Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward San José State.
- home elo: -7.79 (path difference 2.29)
- away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +7.78 (path difference 4.24)
- away adjusted epa allowed: -7.24 (path difference 0.12)
- home adjusted epa: +6.91 (path difference 4.68)
- home adjusted success: -6.82 (path difference 1.94)
- home adjusted second level yards: +5.26 (path difference 0.68)
- away adjusted success allowed: -5.15 (path difference 1.95)
- home adjusted passing epa allowed: +5.02 (path difference 3.54)
- away adjusted rushing epa: +4.85 (path difference 2.32)
- home adjusted open field yards allowed: +4.69 (path difference 2.05)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.38 (path difference 0.69)
- away elo: -4.22 (path difference 0.75)
- away adjusted passing epa allowed: +3.71 (path difference 3.04)
- away adjusted second level yards allowed: -3.57 (path difference 1.85)
- home adjusted rushing epa: -3.39 (path difference 1.90)
- away adjusted standard down success allowed: -3.35 (path difference 1.77)
- home adjusted epa allowed: -3.29 (path difference 2.46)
- home adjusted passing epa: -2.93 (path difference 1.22)
- away adjusted line yards allowed: +2.70 (path difference 0.60)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness: -2.56 (path difference 0.45)
- away adjusted passing down success: -2.40 (path difference 0.49)
- away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +2.09 (path difference 0.83)
- home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +2.07 (path difference 0.05)
- away adjusted explosiveness: +2.05 (path difference 0.60)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness: +2.00 (path difference 0.65)
- away adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.98 (path difference 1.32)
- home adjusted open field yards: -1.76 (path difference 1.18)
- home adjusted line yards: -1.42 (path difference 0.59)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -1.33 (path difference 0.09)
- home talent: +1.31 (path difference 1.20)
- home adjusted explosiveness: +1.21 (path difference 0.57)
- home adjusted passing down success allowed: -1.12 (path difference 0.57)
- home adjusted line yards allowed: -1.08 (path difference 1.80)
- away adjusted line yards: -0.95 (path difference 1.97)
- home conference: -0.86 (path difference 0.54)
- home adjusted standard down success allowed: +0.71 (path difference 0.54)
- home adjusted standard down success: +0.70 (path difference 0.30)
- home adjusted success allowed: -0.68 (path difference 0.15)
- away conference: -0.65 (path difference 0.16)
- away adjusted open field yards allowed: -0.55 (path difference 0.28)
- home adjusted explosiveness allowed: +0.43 (path difference 0.40)
- away adjusted second level yards: +0.42 (path difference 0.52)
- away adjusted success: +0.42 (path difference 0.11)
- away talent: +0.31 (path difference 0.31)
- away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.23 (path difference 0.02)
- home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.23 (path difference 1.31)
- away adjusted passing epa: -0.22 (path difference 0.39)
- away adjusted epa: -0.15 (path difference 0.05)
- away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: -0.15 (path difference 0.04)
- away adjusted standard down success: -0.12 (path difference 0.02)
- home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.12 (path difference 0.79)
- week: +0.10 (path difference 0.73)
- away adjusted open field yards: +0.08 (path difference 0.03)
- home adjusted passing down success: +0.07 (path difference 0.42)
- home adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.02 (path difference 0.03)
Reconciles to 30.86 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.
Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.
Fit 1ad7d19a4f250d7f5c62cdf95b70289b6ffd1cf8bdf8feb12b8623f27e5aa234 · inputs 9698daa5bac3620a05b834765aeeaf1e681c2dee3a96f5e28dae03a69293fa8c · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast ebe7f685c335e0797001233e9196c06f697b60049f2186a3f3029f751a46de8e · through week 8.
- Output:
- Home win probability (%), display only
- Model:
- StackedEnsemble
- Training:
- Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
- Features:
- Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
- Evaluation:
- Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record
The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.
Rushing workload · last three team games
CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-10-30 UTC.
New Mexico
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 122 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scottre HumphreyCFBD athlete 5166161 Week 5 vs UTEP: 12 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 41.7% success · -0.010 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Hawai'i: 15 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 40.0% success · 0.236 raw PPA. Week 8 vs North Dakota State: 10 attempts · 3.1 YPC · 30.0% success · -0.134 raw PPA. | 37 | 4.5 | 0 | 30.3% | 94 / 4.8 |
Kiefer SibleyCFBD athlete 5146726 Week 5 vs UTEP: 5 attempts · 1.6 YPC · 40.0% success · -0.359 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Hawai'i: 15 attempts · 4.8 YPC · 20.0% success · 0.008 raw PPA. Week 8 vs North Dakota State: 13 attempts · 7.0 YPC · 53.8% success · 0.396 raw PPA. | 33 | 5.2 | 0 | 27.0% | 64 / 5.7 |
Toa FaavaeCFBD athlete 5261479 Week 5 vs UTEP: 4 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 66.7% success · 0.266 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Hawai'i: 9 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 42.9% success · -0.180 raw PPA. Week 8 vs North Dakota State: 14 attempts · 1.8 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.137 raw PPA. | 27 | 4.0 | 5 | 22.1% | 61 / 3.6 |
James LaubsteinCFBD athlete 5228804 Week 5 vs UTEP: 7 attempts · 5.4 YPC · 71.4% success · 0.459 raw PPA. Week 7 vs Hawai'i: 1 attempts · 12.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 1.425 raw PPA. | 8 | 6.3 | 0 | 6.6% | 20 / 4.4 |
Darrion BowersCFBD athlete 5265474 Week 5 vs UTEP: 6 attempts · 2.2 YPC · 16.7% success · 0.036 raw PPA. | 6 | 2.2 | 0 | 4.9% | 19 / 3.9 |
San José State
3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 92 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.
| Player | Attempts | YPC | Sacks | Attributed share | Captured season attempts / YPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Viliami TeuCFBD athlete 5151338 Week 6 vs Wyoming: 2 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.100 raw PPA. Week 7 vs UTEP: 20 attempts · 7.8 YPC · 35.0% success · 0.499 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Nevada: 10 attempts · 4.4 YPC · 30.0% success · 0.084 raw PPA. | 32 | 6.5 | 0 | 34.8% | 44 / 6.5 |
Jabari BatesCFBD athlete 4685254 Week 6 vs Wyoming: 16 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 37.5% success · 0.027 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Nevada: 11 attempts · 2.7 YPC · 9.1% success · -0.383 raw PPA. | 27 | 3.7 | 0 | 29.3% | 128 / 4.4 |
Luke WeaverCFBD athlete 5295238 Week 6 vs Wyoming: 9 attempts · -0.3 YPC · 60.0% success · 0.540 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Nevada: 2 attempts · 3.0 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.349 raw PPA. | 11 | 0.3 | 4 | 12.0% | 54 / 1.5 |
Daniel RolovichCFBD athlete 5215357 Week 7 vs UTEP: 9 attempts · 4.3 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.163 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Nevada: 1 attempts · -2.0 YPC · 0.0% success · 0.000 raw PPA. | 10 | 3.7 | 2 | 10.9% | 10 / 3.7 |
Isaiah CarlsonCFBD athlete 4870662 Week 6 vs Wyoming: 1 attempts · 0.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.291 raw PPA. Week 7 vs UTEP: 5 attempts · 6.2 YPC · 80.0% success · 0.360 raw PPA. | 6 | 5.2 | 0 | 6.5% | 15 / 3.7 |
Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.
Team matchup statistics
Offense vs defense
2026 season to date · through Week 8, captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.
| Measure | San José StateOffense | New MexicoDefense | New MexicoOffense | San José StateDefense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPA/play | +0.10 36th | -0.16 99th | +0.14 54th | +0.07 52nd |
| Success rate | 38.6% 14th | 31.5% 100th | 40.8% 33rd | 43.3% 23rd |
| Explosiveness | 1.17 23rd | 1.40 5th | 1.27 71st | 1.10 92nd |
| Standard-down PPA/play | +0.14 69th | -0.26 100th | +0.11 59th | +0.05 43rd |
| Passing-down PPA/play | +0.01 7th | -0.00 89th | +0.21 42nd | +0.10 74th |
| Havoc allowed / created | 16.1% 31st | 25.4% 100th | 12.6% 80th | 15.4% 45th |
Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Oct 30, 2026, 06:05:43 CDT. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.
CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR
Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions
Preview captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:23 AM CDT · assembled Oct 30, 2026, 6:14:23 AM CDT
Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.
2026 kicker PAAR
Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Oct 30, 2026, 6:13:38 AM CDT.
- Grant Glasgow · New Mexico · PAAR -1.50 · 10 attempts
- Trajan Sinatra · San José State · PAAR 2.17 · 18 attempts
- Nicholas Romero · New Mexico · PAAR -2.78 · 1 attempts
Player recent form
CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.
Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.
Captured line movement
Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Oct 30, 2026, 16:20:05 CDT · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.
Loading recorded line history… Open this game’s recorded history.
Line history & team context
Card snapshot lines
San José State spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Oct 30, 2026, 04:00:02 CDT · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.
DraftKings
CFBD-reported opening: +14.5 · Snapshot spread: +14.5
First locally observed: +14.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 42.5 · Snapshot total: 42.5
Total · First locally observed: 41.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +470 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +490 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -650 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -675 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Bovada
CFBD-reported opening: +15 · Snapshot spread: +15
First locally observed: +15 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Total · CFBD-reported opening: 41.5 · Snapshot total: 42
Total · First locally observed: 41.5 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Total observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Home moneyline · Snapshot: +475 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Home moneyline · First locally observed: +475 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Home moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
Away moneyline · Snapshot: -700 · Reported opening: not supplied by CFBD
Away moneyline · First locally observed: -700 · captured Oct 25, 2026, 22:52:34 CDT · Observation age: calculating…
Away moneyline observation evidence
Capture SHA-256: fbb827cddafa48dfddfcab9cbeea1e5b9ff2cbd305a9668e6821a7a08225dea7
San José State
Net adjusted EPA/play -0.0 · 8 rated weeks · Mountain West
New Mexico
Net adjusted EPA/play +0.1 · 8 rated weeks · Mountain West
Travel
New Mexico travels 863 miles (longer than 75% of road trips, 2017–2025) · 1 time zone crossed · down 5,007 ft in elevation.
Distance uses the campuses because this schedule has no venue.
The 2017–2025 study found no overall ATS edge. Distance and time-zone groups cover near a coin flip. The 2,500+ mile group is above break-even but dominated by Hawai'i trips, so it is not a betting rule.
Series history
San José State leads 16–5, 1 tie in 22 meetings since 1954.
- 2025New Mexico at San José State28–35 · San José State
- 2023San José State at New Mexico52–24 · San José State
- 2020San José State at New Mexico38–21 · San José State
- 2019New Mexico at San José State21–32 · San José State
- 2016San José State at New Mexico41–48 · New Mexico
- 2015New Mexico at San José State21–31 · San José State
CFBD matchup data Last 6 meetings shown. N marks a neutral site. History is not a projection input.
Team style charts
Model output, not betting advice. Historical hit rates are small-sample backtests; several edge buckets lose money at -110. Flat units only.