Week 10 · 2026

Louisiana Tech at Troy

Visual game report

Available after a final score is recorded. The pregame forecast stays separate from postgame results.

Player production & success

CFBD regular season · through week 9 · observed 2026-11-06 UTC. Captured before kickoff.

Most active players in up to 3 recent completed team games. Passing and rushing are separate credited populations; rates weight successes by plays. Garbage time included; minimum credited plays 0. Partial provider coverage; no forecast inputs.

Louisiana Tech

Window: 2026-10-31 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-18 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T21:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Blake Baker QB 3 games	47.5% 38 / 80 plays	41.7% 10 / 24 plays
Andrew Burnette RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	36.0% 18 / 50 plays
Trey Kukuk QB 3 games	33.3% 1 / 3 plays	33.3% 3 / 9 plays
Rayshun Hurt RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	41.7% 5 / 12 plays
Sergio Snider RB 3 games	0.0% 0 / 1 plays	33.3% 3 / 9 plays
Marcus Calwise Jr. WR 2 games	— 0 / 0 plays	33.3% 1 / 3 plays
Talyn Shettron WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	100.0% 1 / 1 plays
Dedrick Latulas WR 1 games	— 0 / 0 plays	0.0% 0 / 1 plays

Traditional season production · 68 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

AJ Tarvin · DB

CFBD athlete 5382991

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Ahkhari Johnson · DB

CFBD athlete 5147383

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 13.2
kickReturns · LONG: 19
kickReturns · NO: 5
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 66

Alonzo Jackson Jr. · LB

CFBD athlete 5197102

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 7.0
defensive · SOLO: 29
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 13.0
defensive · TOT: 58
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 2
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Amari Butler · DB

CFBD athlete 5296384

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Amari Wilks · DL

CFBD athlete 5279679

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 3

Andrew Burnette · RB

CFBD athlete 5296374

receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 8
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 31
receiving · YPR: 3.9
rushing · CAR: 94
rushing · LONG: 37
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 365
rushing · YPC: 3.9

Ashton Dawson · DL

CFBD athlete 5291633

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Ayden Combs · LB

CFBD athlete 5292860

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 11

Blake Baker · QB

CFBD athlete 5150998

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 149
passing · COMPLETIONS: 106
passing · INT: 1
passing · PCT: 0.711
passing · TD: 13
passing · YDS: 1327
passing · YPA: 8.9
receiving · LONG: 2
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 2
receiving · YPR: 1.0
rushing · CAR: 58
rushing · LONG: 14
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 47
rushing · YPC: 0.8

Brayden Bockler · TE

CFBD athlete 5296401

receiving · LONG: 7
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 9
receiving · YPR: 1.8

Cole Watson · LB

CFBD athlete 5151289

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 6

Colton Deckard · LB

CFBD athlete 5091824

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 2

Damien Richard II · DB

CFBD athlete 5302787

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

David Pierro · WR

CFBD athlete 5296382

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3
receiving · LONG: 3
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 3
receiving · YPR: 3.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -2
rushing · YPC: -2.0

Daylin Page · DL

CFBD athlete 5296395

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Dedrick Latulas · WR

CFBD athlete 5078549

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 19.3
kickReturns · LONG: 36
kickReturns · NO: 9
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 174
puntReturns · AVG: 13.4
puntReturns · LONG: 58
puntReturns · NO: 9
puntReturns · TD: 1
puntReturns · YDS: 121
receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 10
receiving · YPR: 5.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 1
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 1
rushing · YPC: 1.0

Demario Bookhart · DB

CFBD athlete 5231369

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5

Donovan Rieman · DL

CFBD athlete 4911841

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Dylone Brooks · RB

CFBD athlete 5296386

kickReturns · AVG: 0
kickReturns · LONG: 25
kickReturns · NO: 0
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 25
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 19
passing · YPA: 19.0
receiving · LONG: 74
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 108
receiving · YPR: 18.0
rushing · CAR: 19
rushing · LONG: 72
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 175
rushing · YPC: 9.2

Ean Burch · LS

CFBD athlete 5082059

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Eli Finley · TE

CFBD athlete 5121453

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 12.0
kickReturns · LONG: 12
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 12
receiving · LONG: 29
receiving · REC: 41
receiving · TD: 5
receiving · YDS: 477
receiving · YPR: 11.6

Emanual Collins · DB

CFBD athlete 5302783

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Grayson Hardy · LB

CFBD athlete 5302785

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Harrison Williams · RB

CFBD athlete 5382994

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 1

Hayden Christman · OL

CFBD athlete 5091822

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Hunter Rioux · PK

CFBD athlete 5161240

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2
kicking · FGA: 7
kicking · FGM: 3
kicking · LONG: 49
kicking · PCT: 0.429
kicking · PTS: 14
kicking · XPA: 7
kicking · XPM: 5

Jackson Bradley · QB

CFBD athlete 5184630

passing · ATT: 3
passing · COMPLETIONS: 2
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.667
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 3
passing · YPA: 1.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 0
rushing · YPC: 0.0

Jacob Bradford · DL

CFBD athlete 5149829

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 12

Jacoryian Crowe · DB

CFBD athlete 5230765

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Jaden Miller · RB

CFBD athlete 5382987

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 6
receiving · YPR: 6.0
rushing · CAR: 19
rushing · LONG: 11
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 46
rushing · YPC: 2.4

Jadon Mayfield · LB

CFBD athlete 5147150

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 3
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 9.0
defensive · TOT: 52
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Jalen Mickens · WR

CFBD athlete 5218381

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 75
receiving · REC: 43
receiving · TD: 4
receiving · YDS: 618
receiving · YPR: 14.4
rushing · CAR: 7
rushing · LONG: 28
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 95
rushing · YPC: 13.6

Janard Lockhardt · DB

CFBD athlete 5382988

defensive · PD: 9
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.0
defensive · TOT: 28
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: 1.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 1

Javari Lockhart · DB

CFBD athlete 5296385

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jay Wilkerson · WR

CFBD athlete 4431484

receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 47
receiving · YPR: 7.8

Jaylon Parnell · LB

CFBD athlete 5141624

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Jeremiah Smith · LB

CFBD athlete 5280780

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Johnnie Thiel IV · WR

CFBD athlete 5215238

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 12
receiving · YPR: 12.0

Jojo Odom · DL

CFBD athlete 5296393

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.0
defensive · TOT: 5

Jordan McRae · DB

CFBD athlete 5296381

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 20
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 38
interceptions · AVG: 35.3
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 106

Josh Brantley · TE

CFBD athlete 5222150

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 16
passing · YPA: 16.0

Judd Rouyea · DL

CFBD athlete 5159128

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 3

Justice Williams · DL

CFBD athlete 4884299

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Kaden McIver · DL

CFBD athlete 5383001

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Kaegan Kent · PK

CFBD athlete 5296391

kicking · FGA: 6
kicking · FGM: 2
kicking · LONG: 25
kicking · PCT: 0.333
kicking · PTS: 29
kicking · XPA: 23
kicking · XPM: 23

Kaleb Coleman · DL

CFBD athlete 5230113

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 16

Kam Franklin · DB

CFBD athlete 4870720

defensive · PD: 2
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 11
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 26
interceptions · AVG: 33.0
interceptions · INT: 2
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 66

Kameron Carter · DB

CFBD athlete 5296377

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 8
interceptions · AVG: 22.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 22

Kolbe Fields · LB

CFBD athlete 4611385

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 8
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 7.0
defensive · TOT: 48

Lane Condry · DL

CFBD athlete 5296404

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 11

Lexington Matthews · P

CFBD athlete 5166467

punting · In 20: 9
punting · LONG: 67
punting · NO: 27
punting · TB: 3
punting · YDS: 1178
punting · YPP: 43.6

Luke Watkins · WR

CFBD athlete 5265463

puntReturns · AVG: 0.0
puntReturns · LONG: 0
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 0
receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 42
receiving · YPR: 14.0
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 0
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: -6
rushing · YPC: -6.0

MJ Moultrie II · DB

CFBD athlete 5299909

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 8
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 23

Marcus Calwise Jr. · WR

CFBD athlete 5224217

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
kickReturns · AVG: 12.0
kickReturns · LONG: 12
kickReturns · NO: 1
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 12
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 74
passing · YPA: 74.0
puntReturns · AVG: 40.0
puntReturns · LONG: 66
puntReturns · NO: 2
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 80
receiving · LONG: 35
receiving · REC: 19
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 247
receiving · YPR: 13.0
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 56
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 57
rushing · YPC: 19.0

Nathan Green · DB

CFBD athlete 5269141

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Olamide Oguns · DL

CFBD athlete 5083640

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1.5
defensive · TOT: 8

Rayshun Hurt · RB

CFBD athlete 5382992

receiving · LONG: 67
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 92
receiving · YPR: 15.3
rushing · CAR: 17
rushing · LONG: 30
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 80
rushing · YPC: 4.7

Sam Fongang · DB

CFBD athlete 5296375

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 25
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3
defensive · TOT: 43

Sergio Snider · RB

CFBD athlete 4919037

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 1
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 1.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 2
passing · YPA: 2.0
receiving · LONG: 0
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 0
receiving · YPR: 0.0
rushing · CAR: 19
rushing · LONG: 24
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 83
rushing · YPC: 4.4

Taeden Rogers · DB

CFBD athlete 5382990

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 26
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 39
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
interceptions · AVG: -2.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: -2

Talyn Shettron · WR

CFBD athlete 4685517

receiving · LONG: 27
receiving · REC: 17
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 231
receiving · YPR: 13.6
rushing · CAR: 3
rushing · LONG: 37
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 46
rushing · YPC: 15.3

Trey Kukuk · QB

CFBD athlete 5296376

fumbles · FUM: 2
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 76
passing · COMPLETIONS: 50
passing · INT: 2
passing · PCT: 0.658
passing · TD: 4
passing · YDS: 494
passing · YPA: 6.5
rushing · CAR: 43
rushing · LONG: 20
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 209
rushing · YPC: 4.9

Ty Jones · DB

CFBD athlete 5225413

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 10

Will Hutchens · OL

CFBD athlete 5086375

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Za'Qwaun Nunn · DL

CFBD athlete 5282368

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

Zachary Jackson · DB

CFBD athlete 5296390

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Zander Hayes · LB

CFBD athlete 5296389

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Zheric Hill · LB

CFBD athlete 5222250

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 17
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 8.0
defensive · TOT: 47
interceptions · AVG: 25.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 25

Troy

Window: 2026-10-29 (reported) · 2026-10-24 (reported) · 2026-10-17 (reported). Cutoff: 2026-11-07T21:00:00+00:00.

Player	Passing	Rushing
Tucker Kilcrease QB 3 games	20.4% 10 / 49 plays	26.1% 6 / 23 plays
Will Crowder QB 2 games	17.2% 5 / 29 plays	75.0% 6 / 8 plays
Jordan Lovett RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	41.9% 13 / 31 plays
Gavin Griffin RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	37.9% 11 / 29 plays
Jaheim Merriweather RB 3 games	— 0 / 0 plays	28.6% 6 / 21 plays

Traditional season production · 51 players

Provider totals through week 9, captured 2026-11-06. Original statistical values; team-specific athlete records remain separate from adjusted efficiency and usage.

Bryce Burgess · RB

CFBD athlete 5388765

rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 4
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 4
rushing · YPC: 4.0

Bryce Steele · LB

CFBD athlete 4596666

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 21
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Colton Walls · LS

CFBD athlete 5122109

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Delvin Whitaker · DE

CFBD athlete 4871037

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 7

Donnie Smith · DB

CFBD athlete 5295862

defensive · PD: 5
defensive · QB HUR: 7
defensive · SACKS: 6
defensive · SOLO: 22
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 6.5
defensive · TOT: 34

Doug Nelson · LB

CFBD athlete 5388755

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 30

Ethan Head · PK

CFBD athlete 5219720

kicking · FGA: 12
kicking · FGM: 7
kicking · LONG: 47
kicking · PCT: 0.583
kicking · PTS: 38
kicking · XPA: 18
kicking · XPM: 17

Evan Crenshaw · P

CFBD athlete 4899096

passing · ATT: 1
passing · COMPLETIONS: 0
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.000
passing · TD: 0
passing · YDS: 0
passing · YPA: 0.0
punting · In 20: 14
punting · LONG: 73
punting · NO: 40
punting · TB: 2
punting · YDS: 1796
punting · YPP: 44.9

Fabian Rogosch · TE

CFBD athlete 5091753

receiving · LONG: 19
receiving · REC: 5
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 54
receiving · YPR: 10.8

Gavin Griffin · RB

CFBD athlete 5388754

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 17.3
kickReturns · LONG: 22
kickReturns · NO: 3
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 52
receiving · LONG: 16
receiving · REC: 6
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 46
receiving · YPR: 7.7
rushing · CAR: 98
rushing · LONG: 39
rushing · TD: 3
rushing · YDS: 436
rushing · YPC: 4.4

Gavyn Baker · LB

CFBD athlete 5295866

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Hayden Wolfe · PK

CFBD athlete 5388767

kicking · FGA: 3
kicking · FGM: 1
kicking · LONG: 27
kicking · PCT: 0.333
kicking · PTS: 8
kicking · XPA: 5
kicking · XPM: 5

Howard Kinchen · WR

CFBD athlete 5388762

receiving · LONG: 55
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 2
receiving · YDS: 174
receiving · YPR: 10.9

Jabari Strait · CB

CFBD athlete 5220314

defensive · PD: 4
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 18
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Jace Petty · WR

CFBD athlete 5150277

kickReturns · AVG: 19.0
kickReturns · LONG: 31
kickReturns · NO: 4
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 76
receiving · LONG: 45
receiving · REC: 18
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 209
receiving · YPR: 11.6
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 3
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 3
rushing · YPC: 3.0

Jackson Worley · TE

CFBD athlete 5122106

receiving · LONG: 6
receiving · REC: 2
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 10
receiving · YPR: 5.0

Jaden Mosley · LB

CFBD athlete 5156174

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 3

Jaheim Merriweather · RB

CFBD athlete 5086097

receiving · LONG: 12
receiving · REC: 7
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 32
receiving · YPR: 4.6
rushing · CAR: 71
rushing · LONG: 69
rushing · TD: 5
rushing · YDS: 386
rushing · YPC: 5.4

Jamarion Keyes · S

CFBD athlete 5388758

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 14
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 28
interceptions · AVG: 1.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 1

Jaxon Penn · CB

CFBD athlete 5291925

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Jaxon Villegez-Williams · DT

CFBD athlete 5388772

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 2

Joe Lott · S

CFBD athlete 5194809

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 9

Jon Bocchino · S

CFBD athlete 5222667

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Jonathan Pennix · CB

CFBD athlete 4921512

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

Jordan Lovett · RB

CFBD athlete 5120317

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1
receiving · LONG: 46
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 66
receiving · YPR: 5.5
rushing · CAR: 75
rushing · LONG: 68
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 382
rushing · YPC: 5.1

Jordan Perry · LB

CFBD athlete 4837387

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 18
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.0
defensive · TOT: 46

Justin Powe · S

CFBD athlete 5082572

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 27
defensive · TD: 1
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 54
interceptions · AVG: 12.3
interceptions · INT: 3
interceptions · TD: 1
interceptions · YDS: 37

Jywon Boyd · WR

CFBD athlete 5147346

puntReturns · AVG: 2.0
puntReturns · LONG: 2
puntReturns · NO: 1
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 2
receiving · LONG: 20
receiving · REC: 3
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 38
receiving · YPR: 12.7

Kam Curry · DT

CFBD athlete 5220334

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 4
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 5
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Kavion Henderson · DE

CFBD athlete 5079476

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 3
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 14
interceptions · AVG: 0.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 0

Keyshawn Campbell · LB

CFBD athlete 5021232

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 1
defensive · SOLO: 4
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 1
defensive · TOT: 6

Knai Cook · S

CFBD athlete 5224325

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 4

Luke Hodge · LB

CFBD athlete 4912242

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 7
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2
defensive · TOT: 16

Luke Petit · OL

CFBD athlete 4877228

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Makel Green · DE

CFBD athlete 5214498

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 5
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Marcus Goree Jr. · S

CFBD athlete 5127804

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 6
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 12

Marlin Odom · CB

CFBD athlete 5220316

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 2
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 4

Marquez Dortch · WR

CFBD athlete 4701593

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
receiving · LONG: 14
receiving · REC: 12
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 112
receiving · YPR: 9.3

Miquon Merriweather · DT

CFBD athlete 5151666

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 11
fumbles · FUM: 0
fumbles · LOST: 0
fumbles · REC: 1

Nick Hampton · TE

CFBD athlete 5388763

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 0
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
receiving · LONG: 13
receiving · REC: 4
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 22
receiving · YPR: 5.5

Noreel White · WR

CFBD athlete 5079632

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
kickReturns · AVG: 22.0
kickReturns · LONG: 24
kickReturns · NO: 2
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 44
puntReturns · AVG: 4.7
puntReturns · LONG: 26
puntReturns · NO: 7
puntReturns · TD: 0
puntReturns · YDS: 33
receiving · LONG: 37
receiving · REC: 16
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 252
receiving · YPR: 15.8
rushing · CAR: 1
rushing · LONG: 3
rushing · TD: 0
rushing · YDS: 3
rushing · YPC: 3.0

RaKeem Davis · DT

CFBD athlete 5388771

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 1
defensive · SACKS: 0.5
defensive · SOLO: 3
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0.5
defensive · TOT: 13

Rodge Waldrop · QB

CFBD athlete 5220679

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1

Shemar Welch · CB

CFBD athlete 5147206

defensive · PD: 3
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 13
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 3.5
defensive · TOT: 23

TJ Lott · WR

CFBD athlete 5078105

kickReturns · AVG: 16.8
kickReturns · LONG: 24
kickReturns · NO: 5
kickReturns · TD: 0
kickReturns · YDS: 84
receiving · LONG: 32
receiving · REC: 10
receiving · TD: 1
receiving · YDS: 116
receiving · YPR: 11.6

TJ Thompson · LB

CFBD athlete 5151527

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 12
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 2.5
defensive · TOT: 42
interceptions · AVG: 18.0
interceptions · INT: 1
interceptions · TD: 0
interceptions · YDS: 18

TK Keyes · WR

CFBD athlete 5148784

receiving · LONG: 76
receiving · REC: 13
receiving · TD: 3
receiving · YDS: 282
receiving · YPR: 21.7

Tai Terrell · CB

CFBD athlete 5388764

defensive · PD: 1
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 9

Tucker Kilcrease · QB

CFBD athlete 4912119

fumbles · FUM: 1
fumbles · LOST: 1
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 46
passing · COMPLETIONS: 23
passing · INT: 0
passing · PCT: 0.500
passing · TD: 1
passing · YDS: 252
passing · YPA: 5.5
rushing · CAR: 31
rushing · LONG: 23
rushing · TD: 1
rushing · YDS: 73
rushing · YPC: 2.4

Ty Clemons · DT

CFBD athlete 4701541

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 2
defensive · SACKS: 2
defensive · SOLO: 9
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 4
defensive · TOT: 19

Will Crowder · QB

CFBD athlete 4431633

defensive · PD: 0
defensive · QB HUR: 0
defensive · SACKS: 0
defensive · SOLO: 1
defensive · TD: 0
defensive · TFL: 0
defensive · TOT: 1
fumbles · FUM: 4
fumbles · LOST: 2
fumbles · REC: 0
passing · ATT: 183
passing · COMPLETIONS: 102
passing · INT: 5
passing · PCT: 0.557
passing · TD: 9
passing · YDS: 1162
passing · YPA: 6.3
receiving · LONG: 1
receiving · REC: 1
receiving · TD: 0
receiving · YDS: 1
receiving · YPR: 1.0
rushing · CAR: 51
rushing · LONG: 48
rushing · TD: 2
rushing · YDS: 266
rushing · YPC: 5.2

Pregame weather

Decision-time forecast unavailable

No retained forecast matches this scheduled game.

Weather context

Weather record unavailable

Evidence cutoff: 2026-10-26T04:30:00+00:00. This is an artifact cutoff; verified pregame availability remains unavailable.

No matching weather context has been published for this game.

Verified pregame availability: Unavailable
Measurement units: Unverified · numeric interpretation withheld
Forecast issue time: Unavailable
Forecast valid time: Unavailable

Capture timing does not establish whether these provider values describe forecasts or observed conditions.

Latest published card · In-season model

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved prices from the latest card, not the weekly freeze. Review the weekly card.

Pick at comparison line

No pick

Comparison line · CFBD median

Louisiana Tech -5.25

DraftKings snapshot: Troy +5.5

Book quote differs from the comparison line.

EPA-OLS forecast · margin in points

Louisiana Tech by 7.17

1.92 points toward Louisiana Tech versus the spread. gap below pick minimum The gap is not a cover probability.

Explain this EPA-OLS spread forecast

Baseline: 0.00 Home Margin points. Zero-point accounting baseline; the fitted constant offset is shown separately

Signed contributions in Home Margin points; positive moves toward Troy.

Net EPA rating difference: -11.18
Fitted offset: +5.20
Fitted home field: -1.20

Reconciles to -7.17 points; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0050000001 in output units.

Fit arithmetic, not causal effects or cover probability.

Fit c4bb7cb5f7676bad6ca935c9ad6de236fbdb43b95c02a90800020598436e58af · inputs 6d4f45e0ae49d5c9f891eed0f38de5366f81ce68e71472db3fcb2175d5728f5b · training 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51 · forecast da24c908552cb97bfadb13d49e1a0cda87cb8c5da5099fa4371b5fa265bd874c · through week 9.

What changed?

7 saved cards for this game

Earlier saved card

Market spread changed. Model projection held. Home model gap moved +0.75 points.

The earlier saved card is not necessarily the frozen weekly selection.

Scroll sideways to compare columns. Row labels stay visible.

Home team: Troy · all values in points
Recorded value	Earlier	Latest	Change
Market spread	+4.5	+5.25	+0.75
Model spread	+7.17	+7.17	0.0
Model gap	-2.67	-1.92	+0.75

Negative spreads favor Troy; positive model gap favors them too.

Capture times & sources

Earlier saved card

Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:12:24 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 5, 2026, 06:02:35 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Latest published card

Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

Saved CFBD odds snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…

In-season model · rating source as of unknown

Model gap = market spread minus model spread.

This compares two saved cards, not every line change. The CFBD market spread is a median, so provider coverage can move it. Capture time may differ from quote time.

Model movement compares published projections. These records do not establish why a projection changed or whether the model code changed.

Earlier saved card SHA-256: 09ae362bba85693dce95202484e390b841fbdf36d21ea093fee4dd02276f20a9
Odds source SHA-256: 1191efda55b02705391f90dc98ac55459f647f2300778ae80eca48d727f2d3cf
Latest published card SHA-256: 1cb82609908ef20168d6821e20ce6db6dd11891a77105bc3ac9b18df06cadb8b
Odds source SHA-256: d0dba70812098c221b0c8c478c2238c95459bef99e39ca41d677e1f30597fc3c

View recorded snapshot data

Model context & pick method

Pick logic

Card generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST. Captured prices are not live quotes.

Output:: Home margin and model–spread gap (points)
Model:: EPA-OLS
Training:: 2026, weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; 285 games. Training snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 84480cb6cc00c8fa67ed4375e0492a83b5ad7dac628fe1cf824ff35a490cdd51. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Features:: EPA net difference; Feature snapshot SHA-256 recorded: 6d4f45e0ae49d5c9f891eed0f38de5366f81ce68e71472db3fcb2175d5728f5b. Private linear fit c025ead12920ba4b56114f7cd4fe71d589837d1d707e57540b143a0036e10027; producer verified saved inference without refitting. Raw provider availability is not established
Evaluation:: EPA-OLS 2025 historical ATS reference. Matching probability calibration unavailable; reference buckets do not validate this card.

Training: 285 games · weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.

Training-only RMSE: 15.77 points. This describes the fitted games, not predictive accuracy or a cover probability.

No pick · gap below pick minimum · gap -1.9 points, minimum 3.0

Win probabilities · separate sources

Troy win probability by source

EPA-OLS calibrated win probability: Unavailable; Unavailable: no matching calibration for this card’s projection basis
CFBD market-based probability: 36%; Derived from the available point spread, provider snapshot captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:01:15 CST; CFBD source spread: Troy +5
Stacked ensemble: 49%; Stacked ensemble from the model pack

Explain this StackedEnsemble probability

Baseline: 36.75 % home win probability. Observed training row nearest standardized medians, row 1641.

Signed contributions in percentage points; positive moves toward Troy.

home adjusted epa: +10.94 (path difference 1.86)
away adjusted passing epa allowed: +9.26 (path difference 1.12)
home elo: -9.17 (path difference 3.67)
away adjusted epa allowed: -8.30 (path difference 2.15)
home adjusted passing epa: -8.20 (path difference 2.68)
away adjusted rushing epa allowed: +6.26 (path difference 2.66)
away elo: +5.61 (path difference 2.78)
home adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +4.34 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted open field yards allowed: +3.89 (path difference 1.42)
home adjusted passing epa allowed: +3.57 (path difference 1.11)
home adjusted success: -3.55 (path difference 0.40)
home adjusted rushing epa: -3.23 (path difference 2.37)
home adjusted passing down success allowed: -3.05 (path difference 1.75)
home adjusted success allowed: -2.72 (path difference 0.85)
home adjusted second level yards: +2.70 (path difference 0.36)
away adjusted passing down success allowed: -2.64 (path difference 0.85)
home adjusted rushing epa allowed: +2.57 (path difference 0.27)
away adjusted success: -2.49 (path difference 0.55)
away adjusted second level yards: +2.40 (path difference 0.89)
away adjusted rushing epa: -2.22 (path difference 0.54)
away adjusted explosiveness allowed: +2.03 (path difference 1.55)
home adjusted epa allowed: -1.99 (path difference 2.23)
away adjusted pass explosiveness: +1.90 (path difference 0.86)
away adjusted success allowed: -1.89 (path difference 0.47)
away adjusted epa: +1.69 (path difference 2.28)
week: -1.60 (path difference 0.51)
home adjusted line yards: -1.54 (path difference 0.44)
away adjusted explosiveness: +1.40 (path difference 0.01)
home talent: +1.28 (path difference 0.91)
home adjusted explosiveness: +1.28 (path difference 1.04)
away conference: +1.27 (path difference 0.08)
away talent: +1.17 (path difference 0.80)
away adjusted second level yards allowed: -1.06 (path difference 0.96)
home adjusted standard down success allowed: +1.05 (path difference 1.95)
home adjusted second level yards allowed: +0.86 (path difference 0.89)
away adjusted standard down success allowed: -0.79 (path difference 1.33)
away adjusted rush explosiveness: -0.78 (path difference 1.75)
away adjusted open field yards: +0.76 (path difference 0.87)
away adjusted open field yards allowed: +0.62 (path difference 0.39)
home conference: +0.61 (path difference 0.34)
home adjusted open field yards: -0.54 (path difference 1.35)
home adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: -0.51 (path difference 0.00)
away adjusted line yards: +0.50 (path difference 0.55)
home adjusted standard down success: +0.44 (path difference 0.88)
away adjusted line yards allowed: +0.44 (path difference 1.79)
away adjusted passing down success: -0.25 (path difference 0.45)
home adjusted line yards allowed: -0.22 (path difference 0.93)
away adjusted rush explosiveness allowed: +0.18 (path difference 0.44)
away adjusted standard down success: -0.14 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted explosiveness allowed: -0.07 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted pass explosiveness: +0.04 (path difference 0.80)
away adjusted pass explosiveness allowed: +0.03 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted rush explosiveness: +0.02 (path difference 0.00)
home adjusted passing down success: -0.01 (path difference 0.43)
away adjusted passing epa: -0.01 (path difference 0.00)

Reconciles to 48.90 %; numerical tolerance 1e-10. Published rounding tolerance 0.0000500001 in output units.

Reference- and order-dependent allocation; not SHAP, causal effects or spread-pick drivers. Hybrid rows may be unrealistic with correlated inputs. Path difference measures order sensitivity, not uncertainty.

Fit e302459ca56c4f194361bcc0ad952fb75b35a71b9ff0feaf8dede9dc1265ad90 · inputs fe6aea8c89cad71095e1bf868f70b30ac9028bac4de4b14c67f70fbda846b4cb · training 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9 · forecast adcb108e43d3908df971a272c4d5e0542af1d92484e4324b9ab997b8bdece6d1 · through week 9.

Output:: Home win probability (%), display only
Model:: StackedEnsemble
Training:: Training SHA-256 0837fbbedb3a684b201340cc993067c34179ef0f7ea0e6cc49da8424378a4dd9
Features:: Unavailable — not recorded in this artifact
Evaluation:: Matching evaluation identity unavailable; separate from EPA/SP+ spread picks and their ATS record

The spread forecast drives the pick. CFBD converts a market spread to probability. The stacked ensemble is a separate forecast. Neither supplies a missing EPA-OLS probability.

Rushing workload · last three team games

CFBD individually attributed rushing attempts, including attributed sacks. Captured before kickoff; descriptive context, separate from the forecast. Through 2026-11-06 UTC.

Louisiana Tech

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 119 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Andrew Burnette CFBD athlete 5296374 Week 7 vs UL Monroe: 21 attempts · 3.7 YPC · 38.1% success · -0.061 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Old Dominion: 20 attempts · 3.2 YPC · 35.0% success · -0.123 raw PPA. Week 9 vs South Alabama: 9 attempts · 1.8 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.094 raw PPA.	50	3.1	0	42.0%	93 / 3.9
Blake Baker CFBD athlete 5150998 Week 7 vs UL Monroe: 8 attempts · -1.2 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.179 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Old Dominion: 10 attempts · 1.2 YPC · 57.1% success · 0.294 raw PPA. Week 9 vs South Alabama: 15 attempts · 2.2 YPC · 38.5% success · -0.024 raw PPA.	33	1.1	9	27.7%	57 / 0.8
Rayshun Hurt CFBD athlete 5382992 Week 7 vs UL Monroe: 2 attempts · 4.5 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.099 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Old Dominion: 4 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.207 raw PPA. Week 9 vs South Alabama: 6 attempts · 6.7 YPC · 33.3% success · 0.257 raw PPA.	12	5.3	0	10.1%	17 / 4.7
Sergio Snider CFBD athlete 4919037 Week 7 vs UL Monroe: 4 attempts · 2.3 YPC · 25.0% success · 0.195 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Old Dominion: 2 attempts · 2.5 YPC · 50.0% success · -0.173 raw PPA. Week 9 vs South Alabama: 3 attempts · 3.3 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.290 raw PPA.	9	2.7	0	7.6%	18 / 4.5
Trey Kukuk CFBD athlete 5296376 Week 7 vs UL Monroe: 2 attempts · 1.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.353 raw PPA. Week 8 vs Old Dominion: 6 attempts · 2.8 YPC · 33.3% success · -0.286 raw PPA. Week 9 vs South Alabama: 1 attempts · 6.0 YPC · 100.0% success · 0.247 raw PPA.	9	2.8	0	7.6%	41 / 4.7

Troy

3 completed team games in window · 0 games without returned player rows. Shares use 120 returned attributed attempts, not all team rushes. Provider coverage may be incomplete.

Player	Attempts	YPC	Sacks	Attributed share	Captured season attempts / YPC
Jordan Lovett CFBD athlete 5120317 Week 7 vs Louisiana: 10 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 50.0% success · 0.245 raw PPA. Week 8 vs UL Monroe: 17 attempts · 4.1 YPC · 41.2% success · 0.062 raw PPA. Week 9 vs James Madison: 4 attempts · 2.0 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.619 raw PPA.	31	4.1	0	25.8%	74 / 5.2
Tucker Kilcrease CFBD athlete 4912119 Week 7 vs Louisiana: 4 attempts · 8.0 YPC · 25.0% success · -0.319 raw PPA. Week 8 vs UL Monroe: 9 attempts · -0.2 YPC · 20.0% success · 0.023 raw PPA. Week 9 vs James Madison: 17 attempts · 2.4 YPC · 28.6% success · -0.149 raw PPA.	30	2.3	7	25.0%	31 / 2.4
Gavin Griffin CFBD athlete 5388754 Week 7 vs Louisiana: 7 attempts · 3.1 YPC · 28.6% success · -0.069 raw PPA. Week 8 vs UL Monroe: 11 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 45.5% success · 0.432 raw PPA. Week 9 vs James Madison: 11 attempts · 3.5 YPC · 36.4% success · 0.214 raw PPA.	29	3.4	0	24.2%	98 / 4.4
Jaheim Merriweather CFBD athlete 5086097 Week 7 vs Louisiana: 2 attempts · -1.5 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.504 raw PPA. Week 8 vs UL Monroe: 6 attempts · 4.0 YPC · 0.0% success · -0.170 raw PPA. Week 9 vs James Madison: 13 attempts · 6.5 YPC · 46.2% success · 0.218 raw PPA.	21	5.0	0	17.5%	71 / 5.4
Will Crowder CFBD athlete 4431633 Week 7 vs Louisiana: 5 attempts · 5.0 YPC · 75.0% success · -0.292 raw PPA. Week 8 vs UL Monroe: 4 attempts · 5.5 YPC · 75.0% success · 0.289 raw PPA.	9	5.2	1	7.5%	52 / 5.1

Team-only and unresolved attempts are outside this player population. Game PPA and success rates retain provider denominators; they are not pooled across games. Missing appearances do not establish player availability. This three-game window is separate from the 100-play form window.

Team matchup statistics

Offense vs defense

2026 season to date · through Week 9, captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST · raw CFBD PPA, not opponent-adjusted EPA.

Measure	TroyOffense	Louisiana TechDefense	Louisiana TechOffense	TroyDefense
PPA/play	+0.02 16th	-0.05 89th	+0.14 56th	+0.03 71st
Success rate	38.4% 12th	36.9% 81st	40.8% 34th	39.5% 62nd
Explosiveness	1.21 42nd	1.30 21st	1.32 80th	1.25 41st
Standard-down PPA/play	+0.03 34th	-0.17 96th	+0.13 69th	+0.04 47th
Passing-down PPA/play	-0.01 5th	+0.15 61st	+0.17 34th	+0.00 89th
Havoc allowed / created	17.3% 16th	22.0% 97th	15.3% 43rd	16.2% 57th

Bars show percentile among FBS teams with that measure; higher is better for the team shown. Team-level source captured Nov 6, 2026, 06:07:26 CST. CFBD advanced statistics source These descriptive rates do not change the game forecast.

CFBD adjusted preview & kicker PAAR

Provider opponent-adjusted efficiency and season kicking context. These observations do not change our model forecast. Included-game cutoff is not supplied; capture and source update times are not games-through dates. CFBD definitions

Preview captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:32 AM CST · assembled Nov 6, 2026, 6:16:32 AM CST

Checking current kickoff time before showing captured pregame metrics.

2026 kicker PAAR

Points added above replacement; higher is better. Kicking context, not a complete special-teams rating. Captured Nov 6, 2026, 6:15:45 AM CST.

Hunter Rioux · Louisiana Tech · PAAR -3.05 · 7 attempts
Ethan Head · Troy · PAAR -5.04 · 12 attempts
Kaegan Kent · Louisiana Tech · PAAR -7.45 · 6 attempts
Hayden Wolfe · Troy · PAAR -2.41 · 3 attempts

Player recent form

CFBD raw play PPA and observed workload, 2026. Descriptive context; these values do not change our forecast or establish current roster membership or game availability.

Checking kickoff before showing recent player metrics.

Captured line movement

Provider quotes observed through CFBD. Chicago times (CST/CDT) show when we received the data, not when a sportsbook changed its price. Changes during coverage gaps are unknown. “Quote confirmed” means a complete CFBD snapshot repeated the saved price; heartbeats do not create price observations. Earlier conservative gap markers remain recorded. Ages update every 30 seconds; evidence over 90 minutes old is highlighted. Observation age measures receipt time, not sportsbook price freshness. Published Nov 6, 2026, 14:39:19 CST · Publication age: calculating…. Line-only updates publish no more than once every three hours; daily updates may publish sooner. Checks for updates every minute while this page is visible.

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Line history & team context

Card snapshot lines

Troy spread · saved card's CFBD odds snapshot. Captured: Nov 6, 2026, 03:00:01 CST · Snapshot age: calculating…. These snapshot quotes were not rechecked now. See Captured line movement above for separately timed provider observations and coverage gaps. CFBD-reported openings and first local observations are separate evidence. Capture times are Chicago times, not sportsbook update times; these are not verified closing lines.

DraftKings

CFBD-reported opening: +6.5 · Snapshot spread: +5.5

First locally observed: +5.5 · captured Nov 2, 2026, 07:37:21 CST · Observation age: calculating…

Observation evidence