SRS ratings
Team strength in points, from scoring margins and preseason carryover.
2026 through CFBD Week 9, entering Week 10. 138/138 FBS teams · 622 completed games. Snapshot: 2026-11-06T12:26:24.430328+00:00. Rank 1 is highest SRS among the 138 FBS roster teams, including teams with only a preseason prior. Higher ratings are better. Equal ratings take separate ranks in team-name order. Schedule rank covers 138 FBS teams with a current schedule strength; higher schedule strength means harder opponents. Equal schedules share the best rank and later ranks skip places.
How sure are these? Each rating is give or take about 9 points (a 95% range), so none of the 137 next-door pairs on the board are clearly apart: treat a few places either way as a tie. Under each rank is where the team landed in 90% of 4,000 simulated boards. North Dakota State and Sacramento State get wider bands because there is no prior-season rating to lean on. It is the model’s own estimate from game-to-game scoring noise; in past seasons, ratings from Week 10 on still moved about 1.4× more than this by season’s end as teams changed, so read it as a floor.
138 of 138 teams · national ranks retained; conference filter does not rerank
| Rank | Team | SRS points | Schedule | Games | Movement | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1likely 1–18 | Notre DameFBS Independents | +19.45±8.8 | +0.14#42 of 138 | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 2likely 1–20 | LSUSEC | +18.38±8.8 | +2.27#24 of 138FBS only +6.23 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 3 | Available |
| 3likely 1–21 | AlabamaSEC | +18.35±8.9 | +7.37#4 of 138 | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 4likely 1–21 | MiamiACC | +18.22±8.8 | -0.78#54 of 138FBS only +2.26 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 5likely 1–26 | Ohio StateBig Ten | +16.87±8.9 | +3.15#16 of 138 | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 6likely 1–27 | Ole MissSEC | +16.51±8.9 | +5.86#8 of 138 | 8 | Up 2 | Available |
| 7likely 1–27 | GeorgiaSEC | +16.36±8.9 | -0.24#50 of 138FBS only +2.77 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 8likely 2–32 | UtahBig 12 | +14.99±8.8 | -2.46#72 of 138FBS only +0.23 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 2 | Available |
| 9likely 2–34 | TexasSEC | +14.93±8.9 | +8.12#2 of 138 | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 10likely 2–32 | IndianaBig Ten | +14.82±8.4 | +1.42#31 of 138FBS only +4.31 (1 FCS) | 9 | Down 4 | Available |
| 11likely 2–36 | Wake ForestACC | +14.40±8.9 | -0.47#52 of 138 | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 12likely 4–45 | UCLABig Ten | +12.24±8.8 | -0.89#56 of 138 | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 13likely 4–47 | TennesseeSEC | +11.97±8.8 | +1.33#33 of 138FBS only +4.55 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 14likely 5–51 | ArizonaBig 12 | +11.06±8.8 | -2.73#74 of 138FBS only -0.04 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 1 | Available |
| 15likely 5–53 | Texas TechBig 12 | +10.93±8.8 | -1.89#65 of 138FBS only +0.88 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 3 | Available |
| 16likely 6–54 | MissouriSEC | +10.47±8.8 | +0.45#41 of 138FBS only +3.54 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 10 | Available |
| 17likely 6–55 | IowaBig Ten | +10.46±8.8 | -0.15#48 of 138FBS only +3.12 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 18 | Available |
| 18likely 6–56 | LouisvilleACC | +10.31±8.9 | +0.63#39 of 138FBS only +3.88 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 3 | Available |
| 19likely 6–58 | NorthwesternBig Ten | +9.90±8.7 | -1.70#64 of 138FBS only +1.04 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 3 | Available |
| 20likely 7–59 | BYUBig 12 | +9.65±8.8 | +0.51#40 of 138FBS only +3.54 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 5 | Available |
| 21likely 7–57 | USCBig Ten | +9.64±8.5 | +4.51#11 of 138 | 9 | Up 10 | Available |
| 22likely 7–61 | HoustonBig 12 | +9.51±8.8 | +2.05#27 of 138FBS only +5.50 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 3 | Available |
| 23likely 7–61 | BaylorBig 12 | +9.26±8.8 | -2.12#71 of 138FBS only +0.74 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 20 | Available |
| 24likely 8–60 | OregonBig Ten | +9.21±8.8 | +4.51#12 of 138FBS only +8.35 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 1 | Available |
| 25likely 8–62 | LibertyConference USA | +9.09±8.8 | -8.25#133 of 138FBS only -6.15 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 13 | Available |
| 26likely 9–63 | NebraskaBig Ten | +8.75±8.8 | -1.12#58 of 138FBS only +2.04 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 9 | Available |
| 27likely 9–65 | Boise StatePac-12 | +8.33±8.8 | -2.05#69 of 138FBS only +0.97 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 3 | Available |
| 28likely 9–66 | South CarolinaSEC | +8.25±8.9 | +2.33#22 of 138FBS only +5.78 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 8 | Available |
| 29likely 9–66 | KentuckySEC | +8.22±8.9 | +3.01#19 of 138FBS only +6.43 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 4 | Available |
| 30likely 10–69 | Penn StateBig Ten | +7.69±8.9 | +1.44#30 of 138 | 8 | Up 2 | Available |
| 31likely 12–70 | James MadisonSun Belt | +7.45±8.4 | -6.46#112 of 138FBS only -4.44 (1 FCS) | 9 | Down 11 | Available |
| 32likely 11–70 | Texas A&MSEC | +7.38±8.8 | +2.11#26 of 138FBS only +6.42 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 2 | Available |
| 33likely 11–72 | DukeACC | +7.01±8.8 | -4.86#92 of 138FBS only -2.13 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 12 | Available |
| 34likely 12–73 | FloridaSEC | +6.82±8.9 | +5.94#7 of 138FBS only +9.87 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 5 | Available |
| 35likely 13–75 | New MexicoMountain West | +6.53±8.9 | -7.88#129 of 138FBS only -5.74 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 8 | Available |
| 36likely 13–76 | Oklahoma StateBig 12 | +6.28±8.8 | -1.36#60 of 138FBS only +1.72 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 6 | Available |
| 37likely 13–77 | SMUACC | +6.27±8.8 | -4.02#86 of 138FBS only -1.39 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 9 | Available |
| 38likely 13–76 | WisconsinBig Ten | +6.21±8.8 | +3.61#14 of 138FBS only +7.19 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 16 | Available |
| 39likely 15–79 | MichiganBig Ten | +5.88±8.9 | +2.31#23 of 138 | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 40likely 12–82 | North Dakota StateMountain West | +5.80±9.7 | -7.66#128 of 138FBS only -5.82 (1 FCS) | 9 | Up 1 | Missing |
| 41likely 17–82 | WashingtonBig Ten | +4.99±8.8 | +0.04#45 of 138FBS only +3.35 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 19 | Available |
| 42likely 17–84 | North TexasAmerican Athletic | +4.90±8.8 | -4.77#91 of 138FBS only -1.99 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 43likely 17–84 | Oregon StatePac-12 | +4.86±8.8 | -5.16#94 of 138FBS only -2.53 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 10 | Available |
| 44likely 18–83 | MemphisAmerican Athletic | +4.73±8.4 | -5.72#101 of 138FBS only -3.50 (1 FCS) | 9 | Up 14 | Available |
| 45likely 19–82 | PittsburghACC | +4.62±8.4 | -1.59#61 of 138FBS only +1.20 (1 FCS) | 9 | Up 2 | Available |
| 46likely 19–85 | TCUBig 12 | +4.42±8.8 | -0.17#49 of 138FBS only +2.94 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 47likely 18–85 | North CarolinaACC | +4.39±8.8 | +4.64#10 of 138FBS only +8.32 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 8 | Available |
| 48likely 20–86 | OklahomaSEC | +4.27±8.9 | +6.04#6 of 138 | 8 | Down 9 | Available |
| 49likely 19–87 | AuburnSEC | +4.18±8.9 | +8.84#1 of 138 | 8 | Down 5 | Available |
| 50likely 19–88 | Florida StateACC | +4.01±8.8 | +3.12#17 of 138FBS only +7.03 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 13 | Available |
| 51likely 21–89 | UTSAAmerican Athletic | +3.63±8.8 | -3.44#80 of 138FBS only -0.81 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 1 | Available |
| 52likely 21–89 | ClemsonACC | +3.46±8.8 | +1.22#35 of 138FBS only +5.31 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 10 | Available |
| 53likely 22–91 | Fresno StatePac-12 | +3.43±8.9 | -2.74#75 of 138 | 8 | Up 14 | Available |
| 54likely 21–91 | IllinoisBig Ten | +3.32±8.8 | -0.42#51 of 138FBS only +2.81 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 5 | Available |
| 55likely 22–93 | Texas StatePac-12 | +3.12±8.8 | -1.95#67 of 138FBS only +1.20 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 4 | Available |
| 56likely 24–92 | South FloridaAmerican Athletic | +3.03±8.8 | -8.60#135 of 138FBS only -6.43 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 57likely 25–96 | Louisiana TechSun Belt | +2.33±8.8 | -4.32#89 of 138FBS only -1.86 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 7 | Available |
| 58likely 25–97 | MinnesotaBig Ten | +2.17±8.8 | +0.75#38 of 138FBS only +3.86 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 15 | Available |
| 59likely 26–98 | Virginia TechACC | +2.07±8.9 | -6.12#108 of 138FBS only -3.81 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 3 | Available |
| 60likely 26–99 | Mississippi StateSEC | +2.03±8.9 | +8.02#3 of 138 | 8 | Down 7 | Available |
| 61likely 28–100 | KansasBig 12 | +1.60±8.8 | +1.10#36 of 138FBS only +4.20 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 4 | Available |
| 62likely 29–102 | Iowa StateBig 12 | +1.38±8.8 | +2.69#20 of 138FBS only +6.03 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 7 | Available |
| 63likely 29–100 | CincinnatiBig 12 | +1.34±8.8 | +1.42#32 of 138FBS only +4.73 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 12 | Available |
| 64likely 29–100 | ToledoMid-American | +1.29±8.8 | -8.41#134 of 138FBS only -6.29 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 1 | Available |
| 65likely 30–102 | Kansas StateBig 12 | +1.20±8.8 | -3.27#78 of 138FBS only -0.67 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 4 | Available |
| 66likely 31–103 | PurdueBig Ten | +1.01±8.8 | +5.22#9 of 138FBS only +8.89 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 67likely 30–102 | ArmyAmerican Athletic | +0.99±8.8 | -3.63#83 of 138FBS only -1.11 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 19 | Available |
| 68likely 34–104 | VirginiaACC | +0.54±8.4 | +0.92#37 of 138FBS only +3.75 (1 FCS) | 9 | Down 11 | Available |
| 69likely 34–105 | Western MichiganMid-American | +0.35±8.4 | -7.03#121 of 138FBS only -5.07 (1 FCS) | 9 | Down 1 | Available |
| 70likely 32–106 | LouisianaSun Belt | +0.30±8.8 | -7.29#125 of 138FBS only -5.13 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 4 | Available |
| 71likely 34–108 | West VirginiaBig 12 | +0.11±8.8 | +0.04#44 of 138FBS only +3.23 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 72likely 37–109 | SyracuseACC | -0.23±8.8 | -0.10#46 of 138FBS only +2.86 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 4 | Available |
| 73likely 36–109 | UCFBig 12 | -0.26±8.8 | +2.61#21 of 138FBS only +5.94 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 21 | Available |
| 74likely 35–107 | UConnFBS Independents | -0.28±8.8 | -7.19#123 of 138FBS only -5.05 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 4 | Available |
| 75likely 36–110 | Georgia SouthernSun Belt | -0.48±8.8 | -3.06#77 of 138FBS only -0.40 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 7 | Available |
| 76likely 37–109 | Michigan StateBig Ten | -0.59±8.9 | +6.78#5 of 138 | 8 | Down 4 | Available |
| 77likely 36–109 | Jacksonville StateConference USA | -0.62±8.9 | -6.88#118 of 138FBS only -4.63 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 10 | Available |
| 78likely 38–111 | Air ForceMountain West | -0.93±8.8 | -6.95#120 of 138FBS only -4.82 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 3 | Available |
| 79likely 37–111 | NC StateACC | -0.95±8.8 | -2.99#76 of 138FBS only -0.22 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 7 | Available |
| 80likely 39–112 | OhioMid-American | -1.28±8.8 | -9.52#137 of 138FBS only -7.37 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 81likely 41–113 | East CarolinaAmerican Athletic | -1.32±8.8 | -5.62#100 of 138FBS only -2.99 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 82likely 41–114 | Arizona StateBig 12 | -1.62±8.8 | +1.55#29 of 138FBS only +4.70 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 6 | Available |
| 83likely 44–116 | TulsaAmerican Athletic | -2.04±8.8 | -5.16#95 of 138FBS only -2.52 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 6 | Available |
| 84likely 43–117 | UNLVMountain West | -2.40±8.9 | -5.05#93 of 138 | 8 | Down 9 | Available |
| 85likely 46–117 | NavyAmerican Athletic | -2.43±8.8 | -0.72#53 of 138FBS only +2.15 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 86likely 51–120 | ArkansasSEC | -3.47±8.8 | +4.13#13 of 138FBS only +7.67 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 3 | Available |
| 87likely 52–121 | Coastal CarolinaSun Belt | -3.75±8.8 | -4.65#90 of 138FBS only -2.07 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 16 | Available |
| 88likely 52–122 | TulaneAmerican Athletic | -3.88±8.8 | -1.96#68 of 138 | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 89likely 54–123 | DelawareConference USA | -4.08±8.8 | -6.49#114 of 138FBS only -4.27 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 13 | Available |
| 90likely 54–122 | VanderbiltSEC | -4.08±8.9 | +2.17#25 of 138FBS only +5.49 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 2 | Available |
| 91likely 54–123 | Georgia StateSun Belt | -4.15±8.8 | -7.43#126 of 138FBS only -5.32 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 7 | Available |
| 92likely 57–124 | Arkansas StateSun Belt | -4.57±8.8 | -5.30#98 of 138FBS only -2.79 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 5 | Available |
| 93likely 58–124 | Miami (OH)Mid-American | -4.69±8.8 | -8.25#132 of 138FBS only -6.11 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 94likely 58–125 | Boston CollegeACC | -4.76±8.8 | -1.66#63 of 138FBS only +1.40 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 14 | Available |
| 95likely 59–125 | MarylandBig Ten | -4.94±8.8 | +2.00#28 of 138FBS only +5.28 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 96likely 59–125 | App StateSun Belt | -5.00±8.8 | -5.77#102 of 138FBS only -3.47 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 6 | Available |
| 97likely 58–125 | Utah StatePac-12 | -5.10±8.8 | -2.08#70 of 138FBS only +0.68 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 12 | Available |
| 98likely 60–125 | ColoradoBig 12 | -5.30±8.8 | +3.20#15 of 138FBS only +6.74 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 6 | Available |
| 99likely 63–127 | Florida AtlanticAmerican Athletic | -5.43±8.8 | -6.10#107 of 138FBS only -3.40 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 100likely 62–126 | South AlabamaSun Belt | -5.65±8.8 | -6.07#106 of 138FBS only -3.78 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 7 | Available |
| 101likely 64–126 | San Diego StatePac-12 | -5.67±8.4 | -1.04#57 of 138FBS only +1.47 (1 FCS) | 9 | Unchanged | Available |
| 102likely 62–127 | RutgersBig Ten | -5.85±8.8 | +0.12#43 of 138FBS only +3.56 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 103likely 62–127 | NevadaMountain West | -5.87±8.8 | -5.80#104 of 138FBS only -3.41 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 7 | Available |
| 104likely 68–129 | Kennesaw StateConference USA | -6.67±8.8 | -3.83#85 of 138FBS only -1.30 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 18 | Available |
| 105likely 66–129 | Georgia TechACC | -6.67±8.8 | -1.90#66 of 138FBS only +1.10 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 7 | Available |
| 106likely 68–129 | Florida InternationalConference USA | -6.67±8.8 | -5.78#103 of 138FBS only -3.17 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 15 | Available |
| 107likely 67–129 | TempleAmerican Athletic | -6.68±8.8 | -3.56#82 of 138FBS only -0.95 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 2 | Available |
| 108likely 69–129 | Washington StatePac-12 | -6.88±8.4 | -0.12#47 of 138FBS only +2.72 (1 FCS) | 9 | Down 1 | Available |
| 109likely 70–130 | TroySun Belt | -7.14±8.8 | -6.52#115 of 138FBS only -4.22 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 15 | Available |
| 110likely 71–131 | Hawai'iMountain West | -7.49±8.9 | -6.37#111 of 138 | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 111likely 74–130 | San José StateMountain West | -7.54±8.5 | -5.83#105 of 138FBS only -3.71 (1 FCS) | 9 | Up 8 | Available |
| 112likely 76–131 | WyomingMountain West | -7.98±8.9 | -8.88#136 of 138FBS only -6.82 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 3 | Available |
| 113likely 75–131 | StanfordACC | -8.16±8.4 | +3.09#18 of 138FBS only +6.92 (1 FCS) | 9 | Down 2 | Available |
| 114likely 77–131 | CaliforniaACC | -8.19±8.4 | +1.29#34 of 138FBS only +4.29 (1 FCS) | 9 | Down 6 | Available |
| 115likely 75–132 | MassachusettsMid-American | -8.26±8.8 | -11.64#138 of 138FBS only -7.64 (2 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 116likely 78–132 | MarshallSun Belt | -8.58±8.8 | -6.47#113 of 138FBS only -3.93 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 10 | Available |
| 117likely 78–132 | Central MichiganMid-American | -8.69±8.8 | -3.70#84 of 138FBS only -0.98 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 118likely 78–133 | UABAmerican Athletic | -8.93±8.8 | -4.25#87 of 138FBS only -1.26 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 1 | Available |
| 119likely 81–133 | RiceAmerican Athletic | -9.16±8.8 | -0.83#55 of 138FBS only +2.12 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 120likely 81–132 | Eastern MichiganMid-American | -9.23±8.5 | -7.50#127 of 138FBS only -5.33 (1 FCS) | 9 | Up 3 | Available |
| 121likely 80–133 | BuffaloMid-American | -9.37±8.8 | -8.19#130 of 138FBS only -3.15 (2 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 122likely 83–133 | Missouri StateConference USA | -9.59±8.8 | -7.10#122 of 138FBS only -4.87 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 6 | Available |
| 123likely 84–134 | Colorado StatePac-12 | -9.67±8.8 | -2.59#73 of 138FBS only +0.21 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 10 | Available |
| 124likely 84–134 | Middle TennesseeConference USA | -9.89±8.8 | -6.64#116 of 138FBS only -4.44 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 10 | Available |
| 125likely 84–134 | Western KentuckyConference USA | -9.90±8.8 | -5.24#96 of 138FBS only -2.51 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 13 | Available |
| 126likely 85–134 | New Mexico StateConference USA | -10.12±8.8 | -6.65#117 of 138FBS only -4.41 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 20 | Available |
| 127likely 86–134 | Southern MissSun Belt | -10.17±8.8 | -6.88#119 of 138FBS only -4.72 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 128likely 93–135 | Bowling GreenMid-American | -11.59±8.4 | -6.17#109 of 138FBS only -4.20 (1 FCS) | 9 | Up 2 | Available |
| 129likely 94–135 | Old DominionSun Belt | -11.67±8.4 | -3.42#79 of 138FBS only -1.16 (1 FCS) | 9 | Down 4 | Available |
| 130likely 97–136 | Ball StateMid-American | -12.52±8.9 | -4.29#88 of 138FBS only -1.65 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 1 | Available |
| 131likely 108–137 | Kent StateMid-American | -14.48±8.4 | -5.30#97 of 138FBS only -3.15 (1 FCS) | 9 | Down 2 | Available |
| 132likely 109–137 | Sam HoustonConference USA | -14.73±8.8 | -5.51#99 of 138FBS only -2.98 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
| 133likely 110–138 | CharlotteAmerican Athletic | -15.68±8.8 | -1.64#62 of 138FBS only +1.20 (1 FCS) | 8 | Up 2 | Available |
| 134likely 114–138 | AkronMid-American | -16.37±8.8 | -6.33#110 of 138FBS only -3.95 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 1 | Available |
| 135likely 117–138 | UTEPMountain West | -17.24±8.9 | -1.19#59 of 138FBS only +1.83 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 1 | Available |
| 136likely 116–138 | Sacramento StateMid-American | -17.39±9.6 | -8.23#131 of 138FBS only -6.44 (1 FCS) | 9 | Up 1 | Missing |
| 137likely 121–138 | UL MonroeSun Belt | -18.52±8.8 | -7.20#124 of 138FBS only -4.87 (1 FCS) | 8 | Down 1 | Available |
| 138likely 124–138 | Northern IllinoisMountain West | -19.46±8.8 | -3.46#81 of 138FBS only -0.78 (1 FCS) | 8 | Unchanged | Available |
Method and validation
Local SRS uses 2025 regular-season and postseason results as a prior. It is distinct from CFBD SRS and SP+. Rating gaps are points, not win probabilities.
Missing prior: North Dakota State, Sacramento State.
How a rating breaks down: this season’s games give an average margin (with blowouts capped at 35 points and overtime games counted as a 1-point result, then 2.5 points of home field removed) plus schedule strength, the opponents’ average rating; both count recent games a bit more. The rating blends that with the preseason prior, which still carries about 23% of the weight for a typical team entering Week 10. Every team’s split is in the snapshot JSON as game_margin, schedule_strength, fbs_schedule_strength, prior_weight and preseason_prior.
How the ranges are made: each rating’s ± comes from the fit itself plus a noise level of 12.8 points per game, measured by replaying 7,401 games from 2017–2025 week by week using only earlier results. At this point of the season, that noise level put 95% of game results inside their 95% forecast range. Rank ranges come from 4,000 simulated boards with a fixed seed. Source: exports/srs_rating_uncertainty_20261005/summary.json.
Historical forecast evidence
2024–2025 (previously inspected) event-time replay uses only earlier game outcomes, with forecast mappings trained through 2023; source revisions were not reconstructed. These seasons have already been inspected; they are not an untouched holdout.
- Early-season margin error
- 14.78 points · 389 games
- All-game margin error
- 12.93 points · 1514 games
- Forecast Brier score
- 0.1852
- all confirmation games
Margin error is mean absolute error; lower is better. Brier score measures probability forecast error, with lower values better. It does not measure calibration alone. This evidence evaluates a separate frozen forecast mapping, not probabilities inferred from the strength scale. Frozen forecast mapping trained through 2023. Retrospective calibration intercept -0.002, slope 1.048 (ideal 0 and 1); not a guarantee for future games.
Snapshot and evidence details