Explanations of identified saved fits, with separate evaluation populations and dates.
Ridge predicts Home Margin in points. Positive favors home. This saved-fit comparison does not change primary recommendations or estimate win probabilities.
Saved 2026 Week 10 · 47 eligible upcoming games · 15 excluded
Generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:26:24 CST. Reported input cutoff: Week 9; captured Nov 4, 2026, 01:06:38 CST. Provider publication time unknown.
Matched primary forecasts: 47 of 47. EPA-OLS, generated Nov 6, 2026, 06:12:29 CST.
Kickoff Nov 6, 2026, 18:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +6.17 pts · Ridge minus primary +4.05 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +10.22 points.
Home Margin +10.22 pts
Kickoff Nov 6, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +2.58 pts · Ridge minus primary -7.56 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -4.98 points.
Home Margin -4.98 pts
Kickoff Nov 6, 2026, 19:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -8.47 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.77 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -7.70 points.
Home Margin -7.70 pts
Kickoff Nov 6, 2026, 20:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -6.30 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.07 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -9.37 points.
Home Margin -9.37 pts
Kickoff Nov 6, 2026, 21:15:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +9.41 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.43 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +9.84 points.
Home Margin +9.84 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +1.42 pts · Ridge minus primary -1.82 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -0.40 points.
Home Margin -0.40 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +1.48 pts · Ridge minus primary -8.24 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -6.76 points.
Home Margin -6.76 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +8.92 pts · Ridge minus primary +2.33 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +11.25 points.
Home Margin +11.25 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +0.05 pts · Ridge minus primary +5.46 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +5.51 points.
Home Margin +5.51 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +4.20 pts · Ridge minus primary -7.12 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -2.92 points.
Home Margin -2.92 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +1.49 pts · Ridge minus primary -8.53 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -7.04 points.
Home Margin -7.04 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -9.60 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.89 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -8.71 points.
Home Margin -8.71 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +10.27 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.37 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +6.90 points.
Home Margin +6.90 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 11:45:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +13.61 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.22 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +10.39 points.
Home Margin +10.39 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 12:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +11.54 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.63 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +7.91 points.
Home Margin +7.91 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 13:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -1.74 pts · Ridge minus primary -0.05 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -1.79 points.
Home Margin -1.79 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +9.31 pts · Ridge minus primary -4.80 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +4.51 points.
Home Margin +4.51 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +15.86 pts · Ridge minus primary -0.77 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +15.09 points.
Home Margin +15.09 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +5.42 pts · Ridge minus primary -6.04 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -0.62 points.
Home Margin -0.62 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +13.94 pts · Ridge minus primary -0.96 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +12.98 points.
Home Margin +12.98 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +12.42 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.98 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +13.40 points.
Home Margin +13.40 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +5.53 pts · Ridge minus primary -1.98 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +3.55 points.
Home Margin +3.55 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +7.17 pts · Ridge minus primary -2.50 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +4.67 points.
Home Margin +4.67 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +13.70 pts · Ridge minus primary -6.97 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +6.73 points.
Home Margin +6.73 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +7.41 pts · Ridge minus primary -8.71 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -1.30 points.
Home Margin -1.30 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 14:45:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +7.17 pts · Ridge minus primary +1.28 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +8.45 points.
Home Margin +8.45 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 15:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -7.17 pts · Ridge minus primary +1.73 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -5.44 points.
Home Margin -5.44 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 15:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +18.06 pts · Ridge minus primary +4.10 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +22.16 points.
Home Margin +22.16 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 15:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +15.46 pts · Ridge minus primary -1.85 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +13.61 points.
Home Margin +13.61 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 15:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +12.82 pts · Ridge minus primary -4.69 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +8.13 points.
Home Margin +8.13 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 15:15:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +12.68 pts · Ridge minus primary -7.33 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +5.35 points.
Home Margin +5.35 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 16:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +13.16 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.27 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +9.89 points.
Home Margin +9.89 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 17:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -16.30 pts · Ridge minus primary -5.08 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -21.38 points.
Home Margin -21.38 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 17:15:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +4.30 pts · Ridge minus primary +4.97 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +9.27 points.
Home Margin +9.27 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +17.60 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.56 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +18.16 points.
Home Margin +18.16 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +3.04 pts · Ridge minus primary -2.38 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +0.66 points.
Home Margin +0.66 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -12.20 pts · Ridge minus primary -1.28 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -13.48 points.
Home Margin -13.48 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +3.31 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.66 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +3.97 points.
Home Margin +3.97 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +1.71 pts · Ridge minus primary +4.53 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +6.24 points.
Home Margin +6.24 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +8.02 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.24 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +8.26 points.
Home Margin +8.26 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 18:45:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +6.25 pts · Ridge minus primary -4.16 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +2.09 points.
Home Margin +2.09 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 19:00:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -17.01 pts · Ridge minus primary -8.08 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -25.09 points.
Home Margin -25.09 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 20:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin -4.08 pts · Ridge minus primary -9.73 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -13.81 points.
Home Margin -13.81 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 20:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +18.47 pts · Ridge minus primary +3.25 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +21.72 points.
Home Margin +21.72 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 20:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +0.75 pts · Ridge minus primary -8.56 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -7.81 points.
Home Margin -7.81 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 21:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +6.87 pts · Ridge minus primary +0.85 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +7.72 points.
Home Margin +7.72 pts
Kickoff Nov 7, 2026, 21:30:00 CST
Primary Home Margin +7.69 pts · Ridge minus primary -3.69 pts
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +4.00 points.
Home Margin +4.00 pts
| Metric (points) | Result | 95% block interval |
|---|---|---|
| MAE | 12.46 | 12.01 to 13.07 |
| RMSE | 15.58 | 14.90 to 16.33 |
| BIAS | -0.64 | -1.88 to 0.51 |
Previously inspected season; source publication times unknown. Original training-target defect retained. Not prospective or betting evidence. Intervals use 13 season/type/week blocks; they do not guarantee future performance.
Historical head-to-head accuracy is unavailable without a verified matched primary forecast artifact. These are Ridge-only errors.
Retained history, not current predictions. Generated Nov 5, 2026, 06:21:03 CST; cutoff Week 9.
North Carolina at UConn: Home Margin -0.40 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -0.40 points.
Florida State at Boston College: Home Margin -6.76 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -6.76 points.
Hawai'i at UTEP: Home Margin -13.81 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -13.81 points.
UTSA at Florida Atlantic: Home Margin -11.21 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -11.21 points.
South Florida at East Carolina: Home Margin -4.98 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -4.98 points.
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: Home Margin +5.35 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +5.35 points.
Kentucky at Tennessee: Home Margin +9.27 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +9.27 points.
Nebraska at Illinois: Home Margin -7.70 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -7.70 points.
Oregon at Ohio State: Home Margin +12.98 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +12.98 points.
Charlotte at UAB: Home Margin +13.40 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +13.40 points.
Georgia at Ole Miss: Home Margin +0.66 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +0.66 points.
Georgia State at App State: Home Margin -1.79 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -1.79 points.
Louisiana Tech at Troy: Home Margin -5.44 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -5.44 points.
TCU at Arizona: Home Margin +9.84 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +9.84 points.
Oklahoma at Florida: Home Margin +2.09 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +2.09 points.
BYU at Utah: Home Margin +11.25 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +11.25 points.
West Virginia at Texas Tech: Home Margin +21.72 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +21.72 points.
UCF at Kansas: Home Margin +8.45 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +8.45 points.
Wyoming at UNLV: Home Margin +7.72 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +7.72 points.
Texas A&M at South Carolina: Home Margin +4.51 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +4.51 points.
Louisville at Georgia Tech: Home Margin -13.48 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -13.48 points.
Arkansas at Auburn: Home Margin +10.39 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +10.39 points.
Tulsa at Tulane: Home Margin +5.51 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +5.51 points.
Sam Houston at Jacksonville State: Home Margin +18.16 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +18.16 points.
Air Force at Army: Home Margin +3.97 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +3.97 points.
Texas State at Oregon State: Home Margin +4.00 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +4.00 points.
Texas at Missouri: Home Margin -2.92 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -2.92 points.
James Madison at Southern Miss: Home Margin -19.56 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -19.56 points.
New Mexico at Nevada: Home Margin -9.37 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -9.37 points.
Clemson at Syracuse: Home Margin -7.04 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -7.04 points.
Duke at NC State: Home Margin -8.71 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -8.71 points.
Alabama at LSU: Home Margin +3.55 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +3.55 points.
Virginia Tech at SMU: Home Margin +10.22 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +10.22 points.
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina: Home Margin +7.91 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +7.91 points.
Temple at Navy: Home Margin +4.67 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +4.67 points.
UL Monroe at Arkansas State: Home Margin +15.09 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +15.09 points.
Delaware at Kennesaw State: Home Margin -0.62 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -0.62 points.
Marshall at Georgia Southern: Home Margin +6.73 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +6.73 points.
South Alabama at Louisiana: Home Margin +9.89 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +9.89 points.
Colorado at Arizona State: Home Margin +6.24 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +6.24 points.
Maryland at Purdue: Home Margin +6.90 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +6.90 points.
Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee: Home Margin -1.30 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -1.30 points.
Rice at North Texas: Home Margin +22.16 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +22.16 points.
Northern Illinois at San José State: Home Margin +13.61 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +13.61 points.
Missouri State at Florida International: Home Margin +8.13 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +8.13 points.
Boise State at Colorado State: Home Margin -21.38 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -21.38 points.
Miami at Notre Dame: Home Margin +8.26 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin +8.26 points.
Liberty at New Mexico State: Home Margin -25.09 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -25.09 points.
Fresno State at Utah State: Home Margin -7.81 points
Training-only baseline +2.85 points. Positive contributions favor the home team.
Baseline + contributions = Home Margin -7.81 points.
Paired RF, standalone XGBoost, corrected FastAI, standalone Logistic and the tutorial stack remain unavailable under their separate holds/evaluation gates. SHAP is an explanation workflow, not another predictive model.
Ridge explanations use independent-feature linear SHAP with all 3,916 pre-2024 training rows as background. They explain the exact evaluated Ridge fit, not causal effects or the separate historical XGBoost margin model below.
Model SHA256: 835eaeeb0c3f24dc70d607cba4db93562ba0791fe0cc5f683e899cba588c9c37
Input SHA256: a09035f00374a43313cbbd7507be0a66eb7f04b0fe7f6217e4aa8c43f4e6f343
Environment SHA256: 6c3fe52c7bb8086d5af62e0e5675d81f796a27fb8fa7a344b62cac0e613d4674
Fixed artifact generated 2026-09-28T18:03:32.830030+00:00 · 1,130 row-split test games (2023–2024) · training pack notebook 06
Separate fixed-history fit. The row-order split overlaps in time and its full-frame encoding includes a test-only Week 16 category. This is not the Ridge evaluation or a training-only chronological benchmark.
Explains the pack's research margin regressor, not the shipped StackedEnsemble win-probability model. The regressor predicts training Margin (away points minus home points), so a positive SHAP value pushes the forecast toward the away team. Held-out RMSE 17.9 points; baseline prediction -2.8.
Longer bars mean a larger average contribution, regardless of which team benefits. Units: points of margin per game.
Mean |SHAP| 4.91 points · higher value pushes toward away (value–SHAP correlation 0.94).
| Feature | Mean |SHAP| | Direction | Points plotted |
|---|---|---|---|
| away_elo | 4.908 | higher value pushes toward away | 250 |
| home_elo | 4.679 | higher value pushes toward home | 250 |
| away_adjusted_success_allowed | 1.975 | higher value pushes toward home | 250 |
| home_adjusted_success | 1.796 | higher value pushes toward home | 250 |
| away_adjusted_success | 1.781 | higher value pushes toward away | 250 |
| home_adjusted_success_allowed | 1.440 | higher value pushes toward away | 250 |
| away_adjusted_epa | 1.432 | higher value pushes toward away | 250 |
| home_adjusted_epa_allowed | 1.428 | higher value pushes toward away | 250 |
| away_adjusted_epa_allowed | 1.418 | higher value pushes toward home | 250 |
| home_adjusted_epa | 1.320 | higher value pushes toward home | 250 |
Model: XGBRegressor(eval_metric='rmse', random_state=77) on 42 columns (ten continuous pack features plus week and conference indicators).
Original saved split description: chronological 75/25 in the pack's row order (train_test_split, shuffle=False); 3,390 training rows. Source dates are not globally sorted; this description does not establish chronological validation.
Explainer: shap.TreeExplainer(feature_perturbation='tree_path_dependent'). Each feature plots a bounded sample of held-out games; the table lists the full mean |SHAP|.
Source notebook: model_pack/06_shap_interpretability.ipynb. Recipe unchanged; only the plots were replaced by data the site draws itself.