Week 4 games

2026 · Current SP+ (captured 2026-09-20)

Lines 2026-09-20 18:15 UTC

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58 of 58 games

Market spread first. Model picks are comparisons, not guarantees. Open a game’s details for the projection and historical reference.

Massachusetts @ Sacramento StateSat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadMassachusetts -6

Model pickSacramento State +6

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EPA-OLS reference 44% · 101 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Sacramento State by 6.0
Market spreads: Massachusetts -6 / Sacramento State +6
Model–market difference: 12.0 points

Projected home margin +6.0; market home margin -6.0. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Sacramento State +6

EPA-OLS reference · 7-14 pt gaps · 44% ATS · 101 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Northern Illinois @ Georgia StateSat, Sep 26, 1:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadGeorgia State -8.5

Model pickNorthern Illinois +8.5

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EPA-OLS reference 44% · 101 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Northern Illinois by 2.2
Market spreads: Northern Illinois +8.5 / Georgia State -8.5
Model–market difference: 10.7 points

Projected home margin -2.2; market home margin +8.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Northern Illinois +8.5

EPA-OLS reference · 7-14 pt gaps · 44% ATS · 101 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Wisconsin @ Penn StateSat, Sep 26, 4:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadPenn State -9.5

Model pickPenn State -9.5

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EPA-OLS reference 44% · 101 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Penn State by 18.3
Market spreads: Wisconsin +9.5 / Penn State -9.5
Model–market difference: 8.8 points

Projected home margin +18.3; market home margin +9.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Penn State -9.5

EPA-OLS reference · 7-14 pt gaps · 44% ATS · 101 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Clemson @ CaliforniaFri, Sep 25, 9:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadCalifornia -1.5

Model pickClemson +1.5

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EPA-OLS reference 44% · 101 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Clemson by 6.2
Market spreads: Clemson +1.5 / California -1.5
Model–market difference: 7.7 points

Projected home margin -6.2; market home margin +1.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Clemson +1.5

EPA-OLS reference · 7-14 pt gaps · 44% ATS · 101 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville StateSat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadJacksonville State -9.5

Model pickJacksonville State -9.5

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EPA-OLS reference 44% · 101 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Jacksonville State by 16.8
Market spreads: Middle Tennessee +9.5 / Jacksonville State -9.5
Model–market difference: 7.3 points

Projected home margin +16.8; market home margin +9.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Jacksonville State -9.5

EPA-OLS reference · 7-14 pt gaps · 44% ATS · 101 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Texas A&M @ LSUSat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadLSU -8.5

Model pickTexas A&M +8.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: LSU by 2.4
Market spreads: Texas A&M +8.5 / LSU -8.5
Model–market difference: 6.1 points

Projected home margin +2.4; market home margin +8.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Texas A&M +8.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Missouri @ Mississippi StateSat, Sep 26, 6:45 PM CDT

Captured market spreadMississippi State -3.5

Model pickMissouri +3.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Missouri by 2.6
Market spreads: Missouri +3.5 / Mississippi State -3.5
Model–market difference: 6.1 points

Projected home margin -2.6; market home margin +3.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Missouri +3.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Southern Miss @ TulaneSat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadTulane -18.5

Model pickSouthern Miss +18.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Tulane by 12.7
Market spreads: Southern Miss +18.5 / Tulane -18.5
Model–market difference: 5.8 points

Projected home margin +12.7; market home margin +18.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Southern Miss +18.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Vanderbilt @ AuburnSat, Sep 26, 3:15 PM CDT

Captured market spreadAuburn -9.5

Model pickVanderbilt +9.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Auburn by 4.1
Market spreads: Vanderbilt +9.5 / Auburn -9.5
Model–market difference: 5.4 points

Projected home margin +4.1; market home margin +9.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Vanderbilt +9.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Florida Atlantic @ UL MonroeSat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadFlorida Atlantic -13.5

Model pickFlorida Atlantic -13.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Florida Atlantic by 18.8
Market spreads: Florida Atlantic -13.5 / UL Monroe +13.5
Model–market difference: 5.3 points

Projected home margin -18.8; market home margin -13.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Florida Atlantic -13.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Sam Houston @ Texas TechSat, Sep 26, 11:00 AM CDT

Captured market spreadTexas Tech -37.5

Model pickTexas Tech -37.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Texas Tech by 42.7
Market spreads: Sam Houston +37.5 / Texas Tech -37.5
Model–market difference: 5.2 points

Projected home margin +42.7; market home margin +37.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Texas Tech -37.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

New Mexico @ New Mexico StateSat, Sep 26, 2:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadNew Mexico -12.5

Model pickNew Mexico -12.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: New Mexico by 17.5
Market spreads: New Mexico -12.5 / New Mexico State +12.5
Model–market difference: 5.0 points

Projected home margin -17.5; market home margin -12.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

New Mexico -12.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

South Carolina @ AlabamaSat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadAlabama -11.5

Model pickSouth Carolina +11.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Alabama by 6.8
Market spreads: South Carolina +11.5 / Alabama -11.5
Model–market difference: 4.7 points

Projected home margin +6.8; market home margin +11.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

South Carolina +11.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

UCLA @ MarylandSat, Sep 26, 12:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadUCLA -2.5

Model pickMaryland +2.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Maryland by 2.1
Market spreads: UCLA -2.5 / Maryland +2.5
Model–market difference: 4.6 points

Projected home margin +2.1; market home margin -2.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Maryland +2.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Ole Miss @ FloridaSat, Sep 26, 2:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadFlorida -2.5

Model pickFlorida -2.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Florida by 6.7
Market spreads: Ole Miss +2.5 / Florida -2.5
Model–market difference: 4.2 points

Projected home margin +6.7; market home margin +2.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Florida -2.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

James Madison @ Old DominionSat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadJames Madison -4.5

Model pickJames Madison -4.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: James Madison by 8.4
Market spreads: James Madison -4.5 / Old Dominion +4.5
Model–market difference: 3.9 points

Projected home margin -8.4; market home margin -4.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

James Madison -4.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

App State @ NC StateSat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadNC State -14

Model pickNC State -14

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: NC State by 17.9
Market spreads: App State +14 / NC State -14
Model–market difference: 3.9 points

Projected home margin +17.9; market home margin +14.0. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

NC State -14

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Houston @ Georgia SouthernSat, Sep 26, 3:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadHouston -19.5

Model pickGeorgia Southern +19.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Houston by 15.7
Market spreads: Houston -19.5 / Georgia Southern +19.5
Model–market difference: 3.8 points

Projected home margin -15.7; market home margin -19.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Georgia Southern +19.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Delaware @ VirginiaSat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadVirginia -20.5

Model pickVirginia -20.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Virginia by 24.0
Market spreads: Delaware +20.5 / Virginia -20.5
Model–market difference: 3.5 points

Projected home margin +24.0; market home margin +20.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Virginia -20.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

San Diego State @ ToledoSat, Sep 26, 11:00 AM CDT

Captured market spreadToledo -1.5

Model pickSan Diego State +1.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: San Diego State by 1.9
Market spreads: San Diego State +1.5 / Toledo -1.5
Model–market difference: 3.4 points

Projected home margin -1.9; market home margin +1.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

San Diego State +1.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Oregon State @ UTEPSat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadOregon State -12.5

Model pickUTEP +12.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Oregon State by 9.1
Market spreads: Oregon State -12.5 / UTEP +12.5
Model–market difference: 3.4 points

Projected home margin -9.1; market home margin -12.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

UTEP +12.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Rice @ Fresno StateSat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadFresno State -13.5

Model pickFresno State -13.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Fresno State by 16.8
Market spreads: Rice +13.5 / Fresno State -13.5
Model–market difference: 3.3 points

Projected home margin +16.8; market home margin +13.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Fresno State -13.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Texas @ TennesseeSat, Sep 26, 11:00 AM CDT

Captured market spreadTexas -5.5

Model pickTennessee +5.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Texas by 2.3
Market spreads: Texas -5.5 / Tennessee +5.5
Model–market difference: 3.2 points

Projected home margin -2.3; market home margin -5.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Tennessee +5.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Illinois @ Ohio StateSat, Sep 26, 11:00 AM CDT

Captured market spreadOhio State -27.5

Model pickIllinois +27.5

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EPA-OLS reference 51% · 170 games · Below break-even · Not SP+ validation

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Ohio State by 24.5
Market spreads: Illinois +27.5 / Ohio State -27.5
Model–market difference: 3.0 points

Projected home margin +24.5; market home margin +27.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

Illinois +27.5

EPA-OLS reference · 3-7 pt gaps · 51% ATS · 170 games · 2025 · Below 52.4% break-even at −110EPA-OLS history, not this pick’s cover probability.

Full matchup

Utah @ Iowa StateSat, Sep 26, 2:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadUtah -11.5

Model pickPass

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gap below pick minimum

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Utah by 8.8
Market spreads: Utah -11.5 / Iowa State +11.5
Model–market difference: 2.7 points

Projected home margin -8.8; market home margin -11.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

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Kansas State @ CincinnatiSat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadKansas State -6.5

Model pickPass

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gap below pick minimum

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Kansas State by 3.8
Market spreads: Kansas State -6.5 / Cincinnati +6.5
Model–market difference: 2.7 points

Projected home margin -3.8; market home margin -6.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

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Oklahoma State @ West VirginiaSat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadWest Virginia -1.5

Model pickPass

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gap below pick minimum

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Oklahoma State by 1.2
Market spreads: Oklahoma State +1.5 / West Virginia -1.5
Model–market difference: 2.7 points

Projected home margin -1.2; market home margin +1.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Navy @ UABFri, Sep 25, 6:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadNavy -11.5

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Navy by 14.1
Market spreads: Navy -11.5 / UAB +11.5
Model–market difference: 2.6 points

Projected home margin -14.1; market home margin -11.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

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South Florida @ Bowling GreenSat, Sep 26, 4:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadSouth Florida -16.5

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: South Florida by 13.9
Market spreads: South Florida -16.5 / Bowling Green +16.5
Model–market difference: 2.6 points

Projected home margin -13.9; market home margin -16.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

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Nebraska @ Michigan StateSat, Sep 26, 4:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadNebraska -4.5

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Nebraska by 7.0
Market spreads: Nebraska -4.5 / Michigan State +4.5
Model–market difference: 2.5 points

Projected home margin -7.0; market home margin -4.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Central Michigan @ MiamiSat, Sep 26, 5:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadMiami -42.5

Model pickPass

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gap below pick minimum

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Miami by 45.0
Market spreads: Central Michigan +42.5 / Miami -42.5
Model–market difference: 2.5 points

Projected home margin +45.0; market home margin +42.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Northwestern @ IndianaFri, Sep 25, 7:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadIndiana -22.5

Model pickPass

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gap below pick minimum

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Indiana by 20.1
Market spreads: Northwestern +22.5 / Indiana -22.5
Model–market difference: 2.4 points

Projected home margin +20.1; market home margin +22.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Colorado @ BaylorSat, Sep 26, 11:00 AM CDT

Captured market spreadBaylor -8.5

Model pickPass

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gap below pick minimum

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Baylor by 6.2
Market spreads: Colorado +8.5 / Baylor -8.5
Model–market difference: 2.3 points

Projected home margin +6.2; market home margin +8.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Ball State @ Kent StateSat, Sep 26, 11:00 AM CDT

Captured market spreadKent State -4.5

Model pickPass

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gap below pick minimum

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Kent State by 2.3
Market spreads: Ball State +4.5 / Kent State -4.5
Model–market difference: 2.2 points

Projected home margin +2.3; market home margin +4.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Louisiana @ CharlotteSat, Sep 26, 5:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadLouisiana -14

Model pickPass

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gap below pick minimum

Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Louisiana by 16.1
Market spreads: Louisiana -14 / Charlotte +14
Model–market difference: 2.1 points

Projected home margin -16.1; market home margin -14.0. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Iowa @ MichiganSat, Sep 26, 2:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadMichigan -4.5

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Michigan by 2.5
Market spreads: Iowa +4.5 / Michigan -4.5
Model–market difference: 2.0 points

Projected home margin +2.5; market home margin +4.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Army @ TempleFri, Sep 25, 3:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadArmy -3

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Army by 4.8
Market spreads: Army -3 / Temple +3
Model–market difference: 1.8 points

Projected home margin -4.8; market home margin -3.0. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Liberty @ Coastal CarolinaThu, Sep 24, 6:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadLiberty -1.5

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Coastal Carolina by 0.1
Market spreads: Liberty -1.5 / Coastal Carolina +1.5
Model–market difference: 1.6 points

Projected home margin +0.1; market home margin -1.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Oklahoma @ GeorgiaSat, Sep 26, 2:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadGeorgia -14

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Georgia by 12.6
Market spreads: Oklahoma +14 / Georgia -14
Model–market difference: 1.4 points

Projected home margin +12.6; market home margin +14.0. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Arizona @ Washington StateSat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadArizona -13.5

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Arizona by 14.7
Market spreads: Arizona -13.5 / Washington State +13.5
Model–market difference: 1.2 points

Projected home margin -14.7; market home margin -13.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Boise State @ Western MichiganSat, Sep 26, 2:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadBoise State -7.5

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Boise State by 6.6
Market spreads: Boise State -7.5 / Western Michigan +7.5
Model–market difference: 0.9 points

Projected home margin -6.6; market home margin -7.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

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UNLV @ AkronSat, Sep 26, 11:00 AM CDT

Captured market spreadUNLV -14

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: UNLV by 13.4
Market spreads: UNLV -14 / Akron +14
Model–market difference: 0.6 points

Projected home margin -13.4; market home margin -14.0. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Kennesaw State @ Arkansas StateSat, Sep 26, 6:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadArkansas State -5.5

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Arkansas State by 6.1
Market spreads: Kennesaw State +5.5 / Arkansas State -5.5
Model–market difference: 0.6 points

Projected home margin +6.1; market home margin +5.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Oregon @ USCSat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadOregon -1.5

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Oregon by 0.9
Market spreads: Oregon -1.5 / USC +1.5
Model–market difference: 0.6 points

Projected home margin -0.9; market home margin -1.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

Full matchup

Minnesota @ WashingtonSat, Sep 26, 10:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadWashington -9.5

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Washington by 8.9
Market spreads: Minnesota +9.5 / Washington -9.5
Model–market difference: 0.6 points

Projected home margin +8.9; market home margin +9.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

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Virginia Tech @ Boston CollegeSat, Sep 26, 11:00 AM CDT

Captured market spreadVirginia Tech -14

Model pickPass

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Quick view: projection & evidence

Projected winner: Virginia Tech by 13.5
Market spreads: Virginia Tech -14 / Boston College +14
Model–market difference: 0.5 points

Projected home margin -13.5; market home margin -14.0. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

gap below pick minimum

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South Alabama @ KentuckySat, Sep 26, 11:45 AM CDT

Captured market spreadKentucky -19.5

Model pickPass

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Projected winner: Kentucky by 19.0
Market spreads: South Alabama +19.5 / Kentucky -19.5
Model–market difference: 0.5 points

Projected home margin +19.0; market home margin +19.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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Tulsa @ ArkansasSat, Sep 26, 7:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadArkansas -8.5

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Projected winner: Arkansas by 8.0
Market spreads: Tulsa +8.5 / Arkansas -8.5
Model–market difference: 0.5 points

Projected home margin +8.0; market home margin +8.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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Air Force @ NevadaSat, Sep 26, 9:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadAir Force -4.5

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Projected winner: Air Force by 5.0
Market spreads: Air Force -4.5 / Nevada +4.5
Model–market difference: 0.5 points

Projected home margin -5.0; market home margin -4.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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Georgia Tech @ StanfordSat, Sep 26, 9:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadGeorgia Tech -4.5

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Projected winner: Georgia Tech by 4.1
Market spreads: Georgia Tech -4.5 / Stanford +4.5
Model–market difference: 0.4 points

Projected home margin -4.1; market home margin -4.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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Wake Forest @ LouisvilleSat, Sep 26, 11:00 AM CDT

Captured market spreadLouisville -13.5

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Projected winner: Louisville by 13.2
Market spreads: Wake Forest +13.5 / Louisville -13.5
Model–market difference: 0.3 points

Projected home margin +13.2; market home margin +13.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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Missouri State @ SMUSat, Sep 26, 8:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadSMU -34.5

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Projected winner: SMU by 34.2
Market spreads: Missouri State +34.5 / SMU -34.5
Model–market difference: 0.3 points

Projected home margin +34.2; market home margin +34.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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Colorado State @ UTSASat, Sep 26, 11:00 AM CDT

Captured market spreadUTSA -11.5

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Projected winner: UTSA by 11.3
Market spreads: Colorado State +11.5 / UTSA -11.5
Model–market difference: 0.2 points

Projected home margin +11.3; market home margin +11.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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Notre Dame @ PurdueSat, Sep 26, 1:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadNotre Dame -27.5

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Projected winner: Notre Dame by 27.7
Market spreads: Notre Dame -27.5 / Purdue +27.5
Model–market difference: 0.2 points

Projected home margin -27.7; market home margin -27.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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TCU @ UCFSat, Sep 26, 2:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadTCU -3

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Projected winner: TCU by 3.2
Market spreads: TCU -3 / UCF +3
Model–market difference: 0.2 points

Projected home margin -3.2; market home margin -3.0. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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Hawai'i @ WyomingSat, Sep 26, 2:00 PM CDT

Captured market spreadHawai'i -5.5

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Projected winner: Hawai'i by 5.4
Market spreads: Hawai'i -5.5 / Wyoming +5.5
Model–market difference: 0.1 points

Projected home margin -5.4; market home margin -5.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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UConn @ Miami (OH)Sat, Sep 26, 2:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadMiami (OH) -3

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Projected winner: Miami (OH) by 3.1
Market spreads: UConn +3 / Miami (OH) -3
Model–market difference: 0.1 points

Projected home margin +3.1; market home margin +3.0. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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Troy @ Utah StateSat, Sep 26, 6:30 PM CDT

Captured market spreadUtah State -2.5

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Projected winner: Utah State by 2.5
Market spreads: Troy +2.5 / Utah State -2.5
Model–market difference: 0.0 points

Projected home margin +2.5; market home margin +2.5. Positive favors home. These are margins, not projected scores.

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How comparisons work

Market spread shows the favored team and its captured line. A minus sign means that team gives points; a plus sign means it receives points. Games sort by the size of the model–market difference. ATS means against the spread.

Picks require a gap size of at least 3 points and an EPA-OLS reference group with historical results. Historical hit rates use 2025 EPA-OLS games; they do not validate SP+ projections.

2026 EPA-OLS spread accuracy: — across 0 games. Break-even at −110: 52.4%.

Full backtest

Updated 2026-09-20 18:15 UTC. 2026 through Week 3. Teams: 138/138.

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